Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 4 - The nips are gettin' bigger.

Remove this Banner Ad

Chief

Chugging Adrenochrome
Dec 1, 1999
92,996
70,013
Brisbane
AFL Club
Carlton
Didn't "modelling" predict that there would be 150,000 deaths in Australia? Whose modelling was that? Is this "worst case scenario" modelling still being put to the authorities as the rationale on which every premier bases their lockdowns, border closures and acceptance of labels such as "wildly contagious"?
Who said that?
 

Dry Rot

My hat is better than yours
Feb 21, 2002
38,389
11,322
Hawaii
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Looks like we picked a dodgy vaccine. Report from a financial site

FDA could reject AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine on efficacy and manufacturing shortfalls: analyst

It was bad enough when a study released last week concluded that AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine was largely ineffective against the aggressive B.1.351 variant that recently emerged in South Africa. Now, analysts are wondering whether inconsistent manufacturing of the vaccine for the clinical trials may have muddied the results—concerns that could give the FDA pause when considering the vaccine for emergency use.

That was the conclusion of a note SVB Leerink analysts sent to clients Wednesday, in which they laid out both the bear and bull cases for FDA authorization of AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine. The bottom line? The bear case is worrisome, they said.


 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Chief

Chugging Adrenochrome
Dec 1, 1999
92,996
70,013
Brisbane
AFL Club
Carlton
“Up to 150,000 Australians could die from the coronavirus under a worst case scenario, the Morrison government says, as it considers advice on restricting visits to pubs, cinemas and aged care homes.”

Worst case scenario. Not the most likely scenario.
 

Nuggs Bunny

Premium Platinum
Oct 12, 2015
5,982
9,248
de_dust2
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Dallas Cowboys
Didn't "modelling" predict that there would be 150,000 deaths in Australia? Whose modelling was that? Is this "worst case scenario" modelling still being put to the authorities as the rationale on which every premier bases their lockdowns, border closures and acceptance of labels such as "wildly contagious"?
Did the modelling predict that there would be 150,000 deaths in Australia with or without lockdowns? Kinda dumb to suggest tHe mOdelLeRs R wRoNG based on a prediction that was largely founded on society continuing as normal when we can all surely agree that life since March 2020 has most definitely not been normal.
 

Steele13

Debutant
Mar 19, 2019
136
318
AFL Club
Essendon
He didn’t have one model. From what I can see, his team (one of many teams) used many different models and types of models.

Happy to be proven wrong, but I can’t see one specific “Neil Ferguson model”.
I'm not going to pretend i'm an expert on this. I'm only going by what i've read he has said, and he started this pandemic with a reputation as one of the worlds best. I can't remember specifically, but I seem to recall his numbers were the basis for most governments justifying lockdowns at the start? The likely scenario is that his were just the numbers trotted out by the media for maximum 'effect' I guess. They looked scary.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Financialpanther

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 20, 2006
8,969
8,930
Hobbit
AFL Club
North Melbourne
“Up to 150,000 Australians could die from the coronavirus under a worst case scenario, the Morrison government says, as it considers advice on restricting visits to pubs, cinemas and aged care homes.”

Worst case scenario. Not the most likely scenario.
Otherwise known as the “USA management model”
 

Dry Rot

My hat is better than yours
Feb 21, 2002
38,389
11,322
Hawaii
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Meanwhile the Germans are proving to be smart

Scepticism over Oxford vaccine threatens Europe's immunisation push

Politicians in Germany are stepping out in support of the AstraZeneca vaccine as public scepticism around the University of Oxford-developed product threatens to hamper Europe’s Covid-19 immunisation programme.

The vaccine, subject of an acrimonious tug-of-war between its British-Swedish manufacturer and the European commission last month, is being described by German media as a “shelf warmer” as only about 17% of doses delivered to the country have been administered so far.


 

Chief

Chugging Adrenochrome
Dec 1, 1999
92,996
70,013
Brisbane
AFL Club
Carlton
I'm not going to pretend i'm an expert on this. I'm only going by what i've read he has said, and he started this pandemic with a reputation as one of the worlds best. I can't remember specifically, but I seem to recall his numbers were the basis for most governments justifying lockdowns at the start? The likely scenario is that his were just the numbers trotted out by the media for maximum 'effect' I guess. They looked scary.
The other thing Ferguson said is that models are not reality, and it is usually years after the fact before you can judge if they were accurate.

The various modelling teams have to estimate and fudge and mess around with numbers that may or may not be good quality, to make a best guess as to what happens under different scenarios.

In the UK they dithered and wasted billions on things like track and trace from massive government services companies that were 1/50th as effective as local health authorities. They didn't put in any quarantine measures for international arrivals from what I recall. They sent elderly patients back to homes without any testing, cutting a swathe through that part of the population.

Johnson didn't even get the response right for a worst case scenario and it's 100k+ dead - even before you factor in the under-counting in the first wave due to inadequate testing systems (again, money given to massive government services companies).

And yet it's "Neil Ferguson's model" that gets the blame. It's incredible.
 

sdfc

Club Legend
Feb 15, 2019
1,203
932
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Swans
Gut feel says lockdowns shifted more money from low socio-economic people to high . WFH capability, asset price increases etc.
The lower socio economic classes aren't paying the bill.

The savings are the result government injections into household income and lower spending.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad