Covid-19 Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Part 5 - Get vaccinated.

[Chief]

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infec...d-19-vaccination-case-surveillance-051121.pdf

In the peak fortnight of the outbreak to date (25 August to 7 September), the COVID-19 case rate among 2-dose vaccinated people was 49.5 per 100,000 while in unvaccinated people it was 561 per 100,000, a more than 10-fold difference. The rates of COVID-19 ICU admissions or deaths peaked in the fortnight 8 September to 21 September at 0.9 per 100,000 in 2-dose vaccinated people compared to 15.6 per 100,000 in unvaccinated people, a greater than 16-fold difference.

 

[owen87]

Nice analogy.

This is how both of my statements can be correct.

There are 100 people in a room.

10 people catch Covid on day one, 15 on day two, 20 on day three, 10 on day four, 5 on day five and 1 on day six. The new cases continue to at 1 a day for the next 54 days until everyone has Covid.

The peak was reached on day 3 with less than half the people having Covid, it then trends down and plateaus and continues to spread at lower numbers for a long period until everyone has caught the disease.

Refer previous;

We're not at a point where even close to everyone has it, ergo, we can't be at a peak.

 

[Maddhew]

Yes.

So you expect higher positivity rates in RATs?

 

[Maddhew]

Refer previous;

Comprehend better

 

[owen87]

So you expect higher positivity rates in RATs?

I'd expect many symptomatic people are not bothering to sit in multi-hour queues to get a PCR test, so will take a RAT or not bother entirely if they can't get a RAT.

Exactly what's occurring in Victoria at the moment.

 

[owen87]

Comprehend better

Refer previous;

If you don't understand something, probably refrain from making authoritative commentary on them.

 

[Maddhew]

I'd expect many symptomatic people are not bothering to sit in multi-hour queues to get a PCR test, so will take a RAT or not bother entirely if they can't get a RAT.

Exactly what's occurring in Victoria at the moment.

But if you're comparing the cohort who can be bothered vs the cohort who could be bothered the week before and the volume is reasonably consistent then thats entirely irrelevant.

And thanks for the anecdote, really strengthens your argument,

 

[Maddhew]

Refer previous;

Now thats just obtuse.

I provided a Kindergarten level example of how both statements can be true, pick it apart if you want.

 

[owen87]

But if you're comparing the cohort who can be bothered vs the cohort who could be bothered the week before and the volume is reasonably consistent then thats entirely irrelevant.

And thanks for the anecdote, really strengthens your argument,

You've picked 1 data point, from a state not even reporting complete data, and declared a concrete statement.

 

[owen87]

Now thats just obtuse.

I provided a Kindergarten level example of how both statements can be true, pick it apart if you want.

NSW Total Population

Total NSW COVID Cases

Your statements;

Everyone will get it

We've reached a peak

Try again.

 

[Pessimistic]

Anyone else see a potential problem basing how omicron will go in Australia (with not much Herd immunity but plenty of Vaccinated) on experiance of other communities like the UK (which have significant herd immunity - albeit obtaned at a cost in more deaths)

our r0 seems to be at world record right now

(Hopefully this is wrong, but are we assuming a bit too much)

 

[owen87]

Anyone else see a potential problem basing how omicron will go in Australia (with not much Herd immunity but plenty of Vaccinated) on experiance of other communities like the UK (which have significant herd immunity - albeit obtaned at a cost in more deaths)

our r0 seems to be at world record right now

(Hopefully this is wrong, but are we assuming a bit too much)

We're doing little to limit spread at the moment, in a heavily vaccinated population, with (generally) good levels of data collection.

I don't think it's a problem, though we're seeing issues with health system capacity and flow-on impacts to interrupted supply chains and such which show it's not without issues.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yep. back to "Flattening the Curve'

 

[Pessimistic]

Colleague of mine is currently in hamilton island. lets say its 'peaceful'

Media Resource Centre: Press Releases | Hamilton Island

Visit our site to see all press releases for Hamilton Island and contact our PR team.

www.hamiltonisland.com.au

 

[Carringbush2010]

The ambos (or more precisely their reps) have been banging on about being overwhelmed here for years, and it certainly pre dates Covid. Speak to ambos or ER nurses about some of the trivial stuff they are confronted on a regular basis.

Just heard the Merlino presser and people are dialling 000 for Covid test results??!!? Mind boggling.

Great post, this is exactly what is compounding the problem.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Not sure you understand

The trajectory of case numbers doesn’t remain upward until everyone gets it and then magically the next day no more cases.

case numbers are irrelevant since:

1) it became too hard to get a PCR test
2) RATs are impossible to get
3) the premier told people not to get tested

TBH its just too hard now to estimate how many are outside the numbers now. BUT it doesnt really matter. Hospitalisations are where the game is. I'll chart recent and full pandemic numbers, but I dont see how you see these numbers as at their peak:

HOSPITALIZATIONS





ICU

*Data note 8/1/22: Victoria now reports 'active' and 'cleared' Covid cases in ICU as one figure. It had previously only reported 'active', or reported them both as two separate figures.



VENTILATORS

 

[CD Xbow]

Whilst all this is true, there was still not an ambulance available which is ultimately indicative of a problem.

True, because events like this one contribute significantly to the problem. Times a hundred times all day.

Why? Everyone’s going to get it. 17.5% of NSW ICU occupied by Covid patients. At or close to the peak.
There’s plenty of optimism there for those who aren’t all in on this bringing down the government. There have been some fu** ups along the way which is unavoidable given the dynamic nature of a pandemic but objectively and comparatively we are doing very well.

in terms of evidence, just look up Govt released stats in SA and UK who are ahead of us in terms of Omicron. We are more vaccinated than both. The sky is not falling in.

Your crystal ball is better than mine because I don't think we can say we are at the peak yet, but I agree things are better than many believe, though the health care system is under enormous pressure.

 

[Carringbush2010]

*Data note 8/1/22: Victoria now reports 'active' and 'cleared' Covid cases in ICU as one figure. It had previously only reported 'active', or reported them both as two separate figures.

By cleared does that mean recovered?

 

[Financialpanther]

case numbers are irrelevant since:

1) it became too hard to get a PCR test
2) RATs are impossible to get
3) the premier told people not to get tested

TBH its just too hard now to estimate how many are outside the numbers now. BUT it doesnt really matter. Hospitalisations are where the game is. I'll chart recent and full pandemic numbers, but I dont see how you see these numbers as at their peak:

HOSPITALIZATIONS
View attachment 1309665

View attachment 1309666


ICU
View attachment 1309667
*Data note 8/1/22: Victoria now reports 'active' and 'cleared' Covid cases in ICU as one figure. It had previously only reported 'active', or reported them both as two separate figures.
View attachment 1309668


VENTILATORS
View attachment 1309669

View attachment 1309670

Hospital, ICU and ventilator numbers are all that matters right now but the people need to be slowly weaned off the daily case trends.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

By cleared does that mean recovered?

thats my guess, but Crankyhawk ??

 

[Carringbush2010]

I don't think we can say we are at the peak yet, but I agree things are better than many believe, though the health care system is under enormous pressure.

I'm throwing darts blindfolded here, but is there a possibility that some of that pressure is unnecessary? Like your Ambulance case with the scolded with hot water child.

 

[Maddhew]

You've picked 1 data point, from a state not even reporting complete data, and declared a concrete statement.

The average positivity in the last 3 days are less than than the 3 days prior and the 2 of the last 3 days are the lowest for the week.

I am not claiming it had peaked, just that there’s some positive signs in the data.

case numbers are irrelevant since:

1) it became too hard to get a PCR test
2) RATs are impossible to get
3) the premier told people not to get tested

TBH its just too hard now to estimate how many are outside the numbers now. BUT it doesnt really matter. Hospitalisations are where the game is. I'll chart recent and full pandemic numbers, but I dont see how you see these numbers as at their peak:

HOSPITALIZATIONS
View attachment 1309665

View attachment 1309666


ICU
View attachment 1309667
*Data note 8/1/22: Victoria now reports 'active' and 'cleared' Covid cases in ICU as one figure. It had previously only reported 'active', or reported them both as two separate figures.
View attachment 1309668


VENTILATORS
View attachment 1309669

View attachment 1309670

I am not talking case numbers, I am talking % positivity.
If we can keep consistency in PCR testing and isolate this data we will at least be able to identify the peak using % positivity, even if we have zero idea how many cases there actually are.


The hospitalisations will lag case numbers, apparently the lag period is reduced vs Delta.

Hospitilisations.ICU etc.. are the most important but should know a week or 2 ahead of when pressure on the healthcare systems will ease.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The average positivity in the last 3 days are less than than the 3 days prior and the 2 of the last 3 days are the lowest for the week.

I am not claiming it had peaked, just that there’s some positive signs in the data.


I am not talking case numbers, I am talking % positivity.
If we can keep consistency in PCR testing and isolate this data we will at least be able to identify the peak using % positivity, even if we have zero idea how many cases there actually are.


The hospitalisations will lag case numbers, apparently the lag period is reduced vs Delta.

Hospitilisations.ICU etc.. are the most important but should know a week or 2 ahead of when pressure on the healthcare systems will ease.

youre telling us we are at the peak today however. you are aware you're the only one making this call - even conservative media are not

 

[Carringbush2010]

thats my guess, but Crankyhawk ??

If your guess is correct, I'd argue that's a little misleading and maybe not necessary.

Unless someone like Crankyhawk can provide a valid reason why recovered cases should be included in the numbers.

 

[Maddhew]

You've picked 1 data point, from a state not even reporting complete data, and declared a concrete statement.

Comprehend better, Concrete Statement? And the data is complete as it is only PCR tests, and we are talking percentage positivity and not pure case numbers.

The average positivity in the last 3 days are less than than the 3 days prior and the 2 of the last 3 days are the lowest for the week.

I am not claiming it had peaked, just that there’s some positive signs in the data.

 

[Maddhew]

youre telling us we are at the peak today however. you are aware you're the only one making this call - even conservative media are not

I am not saying we are at a peak, I am saying (IN NSW) there are some early signs we may be.