Analysis Your clubs current live pick position

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briztoon

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Nov 28, 2015
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Sydney signing two delisted free agents.
 
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TheTassieHawk

Draftee
Oct 12, 2019
14
8
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Hawthorn
We have 4 but i suspect we will try and trade up into the top 10 turning into say 3 picks then use the 4th slot to either redraft abbott (who we are committed to re-rookieing anyway) or a DFA.
The Cats and Lions are the teams with a number of high picks who sound like they could both be angling to trade into the top 10.

Unless Melbourne or Adelaide trade down with GWS pre-draft I don't see much movement in the top 10 until the draft starts and teams see where bids on Green and Henry fall and GWS and Freo either grab their preferred player ahead of bids or trade down the order to maximise points if bids fall just before their picks.

The Lions may actually be more likely to upgrade picks pre-draft as they won't get value for picks 52 and 55 if they can only take their first 4 picks into the 2019 draft (assuming that is still a rule).

Some teams might also be looking to trade one or more 2020 future 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders in or out to move around in the 2019 draft order or maximise points.
 

Pure_Ownage

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The Cats and Lions are the teams with a number of high picks who sound like they could both be angling to trade into the top 10.

Unless Melbourne or Adelaide trade down with GWS pre-draft I don't see much movement in the top 10 until the draft starts and teams see where bids on Green and Henry fall and GWS and Freo either grab their preferred player ahead of bids or trade down the order to maximise points if bids fall just before their picks.

The Lions may actually be more likely to upgrade picks pre-draft as they won't get value for picks 52 and 55 if they can only take their first 4 picks into the 2019 draft (assuming that is still a rule).

Some teams might also be looking to trade one or more 2020 future 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders in or out to move around in the 2019 draft order or maximise points.
I agree but most of what the lions have is 34 and beyond i dont think thats enough to get into the top 10 (although i suppose 16 21 and 34 might do it)..j expect they will trade their R3s for 2020 R3s as you said.

Geelong on the other hand have 2 R1s this year and 2 next year so i reckon we have the currency toget in the top10 if we want to. The big reason we delisted 2 contracted players is otherwise 24 and 36 would have disappeared and it would have made it harder for us to trade up the order.

I agree most of the pick trades will be on the night once we know where Green and Henry get bid on.
 

briztoon

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Nov 28, 2015
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The Cats and Lions are the teams with a number of high picks who sound like they could both be angling to trade into the top 10.

Unless Melbourne or Adelaide trade down with GWS pre-draft I don't see much movement in the top 10 until the draft starts and teams see where bids on Green and Henry fall and GWS and Freo either grab their preferred player ahead of bids or trade down the order to maximise points if bids fall just before their picks.

The Lions may actually be more likely to upgrade picks pre-draft as they won't get value for picks 52 and 55 if they can only take their first 4 picks into the 2019 draft (assuming that is still a rule).

Some teams might also be looking to trade one or more 2020 future 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders in or out to move around in the 2019 draft order or maximise points.
I agree but most of what the lions have is 34 and beyond i dont think thats enough to get into the top 10 (although i suppose 16 21 and 34 might do it)..j expect they will trade their R3s for 2020 R3s as you said.

Geelong on the other hand have 2 R1s this year and 2 next year so i reckon we have the currency toget in the top10 if we want to. The big reason we delisted 2 contracted players is otherwise 24 and 36 would have disappeared and it would have made it harder for us to trade up the order.

I agree most of the pick trades will be on the night once we know where Green and Henry get bid on.
David Noble has already said we want to trade 16 and 21 for a pick in the top 10 to 12 range. And that we are trying to trade pick 34 for a future second round pick.

Our pick 34 for Collingwoods future second round pick looks like an obvious trade to me.

He’s also said we’ll probably draft two of our academy kids with late picks.

So my guess is, if we’re trying to trade two picks for one, and another pick out, the club wants one high end talent, two academy kids, and they possibly see value in a kid who might be a late draft pick.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Nov 26, 2008
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David Noble has already said we want to trade 16 and 21 for a pick in the top 10 to 12 range. And that we are trying to trade pick 34 for a future second round pick.

Our pick 34 for Collingwoods future second round pick looks like an obvious trade to me.

He’s also said we’ll probably draft two of our academy kids with late picks.

So my guess is, if we’re trying to trade two picks for one, and another pick out, the club wants one high end talent, two academy kids, and they possibly see value in a kid who might be a late draft pick.
Agree. Problem is if you are trying to trade up geelong (14 17) and Port (12 18) have better hands than you but agree with the rest.
 

Chadsteve1975

Draftee
Oct 27, 2019
2
0
Brisbane, Australia
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Throw Gold Coast in there as well as trying to trade up in to the top 10.
Going by the live trades I think everyone going after Freos no 10. (1395pts). Freo have 6 live picks (7,10,22,58,69,79) and are suggested to maybe use 5. Their hand is too weak to trade up. Leaving 4th and 5th pick in the dregs if 22 (856) is to secure Henry. On Cal Twoomey's last Phantom was about 16 (1067pts) but has been said to be moving up. Perhaps Port at 12 (1268pts) go Henry to force match needing 1014pts (-20%) to match. Pick 22 would be insufficient. Problem is 58 (170pts) & 69 (49pts) are already way too late for last 2 selections not to mention extra points.

Otherwise my team Brisbane could get the future 2020 Rd2 pick (tied to Melb) from Freo for pick 34 (542pt). Apparently we're looking to trade out of this as we're looking at 2 of our own academy matches which need only 4th rounders. And Brisbane probably also want to get back towards a normal 2020 pick selection as it opens up trading options more.
 

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GoTigers2015

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Going by the live trades I think everyone going after Freos no 10. (1395pts). Freo have 6 live picks (7,10,22,58,69,79) and are suggested to maybe use 5. Their hand is too weak to trade up. Leaving 4th and 5th pick in the dregs if 22 (856) is to secure Henry. On Cal Twoomey's last Phantom was about 16 (1067pts) but has been said to be moving up. Perhaps Port at 12 (1268pts) go Henry to force match needing 1014pts (-20%) to match. Pick 22 would be insufficient. Problem is 58 (170pts) & 69 (49pts) are already way too late for last 2 selections not to mention extra points.

Otherwise my team Brisbane could get the future 2020 Rd2 pick (tied to Melb) from Freo for pick 34 (542pt). Apparently we're looking to trade out of this as we're looking at 2 of our own academy matches which need only 4th rounders. And Brisbane probably also want to get back towards a normal 2020 pick selection as it opens up trading options more.
Freo could trade pick 22 for more points.
 

Chaisa

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Jun 2, 2013
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Updated (very belatedly) my OP with a few key bits of information.

According to the info from AFL.com.au about the draft positions though I am missing 3 spots - one each for Collingwood, St Kilda and Sydney. I'm guessing these were filled by rookie upgrades - but who were they?
 

Lore

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Dec 14, 2015
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Updated (very belatedly) my OP with a few key bits of information.

According to the info from AFL.com.au about the draft positions though I am missing 3 spots - one each for Collingwood, St Kilda and Sydney. I'm guessing these were filled by rookie upgrades - but who were they?
Frustrating isn't it?

I've tried tracking these before, it's almost impossible to get it right and too much of a pain in the arse to update the draft order multiple times only for them to release the official one with more picks missing than anyone had anticipated :think:

For St Kilda you have probably miscounted or didn't update the total when Abbott came in the other day:
Incomings: 6 (1Howard, 2Ryder, 3Hill, 4Jones, 5Butler traded; 6Abbott DFA; 7Joyce upgraded) (may also upgrade Wilkie)

Dunno about the other two, can't find anything of note on their club websites. Is it possible that they had more players on their senior lists this year to begin with? Where did you get their 2019 list sizes from?
 

Chaisa

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Jun 2, 2013
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Frustrating isn't it?

I've tried tracking these before, it's almost impossible to get it right and too much of a pain in the arse to update the draft order multiple times only for them to release the official one with more picks missing than anyone had anticipated :think:

For St Kilda you have probably miscounted or didn't update the total when Abbott came in the other day:
Incomings: 6 (1Howard, 2Ryder, 3Hill, 4Jones, 5Butler traded; 6Abbott DFA; 7Joyce upgraded) (may also upgrade Wilkie)

Dunno about the other two, can't find anything of note on their club websites. Is it possible that they had more players on their senior lists this year to begin with? Where did you get their 2019 list sizes from?
Draftguru.

It was 5 before I added Abbott, so yeah it was a miscount.

I think Collingwood might have more senior players on their list than I expected but I really don't think that's the case for Sydney - and I'm probably in a better position to figure that out than you are. My guess for Sydney is that Bell was upgraded but his upgrade hasn't been announced for some reason.
 

Lore

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Dec 14, 2015
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Draftguru.

It was 5 before I added Abbott, so yeah it was a miscount.

I think Collingwood might have more senior players on their list than I expected but I really don't think that's the case for Sydney - and I'm probably in a better position to figure that out than you are. My guess for Sydney is that Bell was upgraded but his upgrade hasn't been announced for some reason.
Draftguru is usually pretty spot on, but even then I don't envy anyone trying to track that amount of information with such unreliable sources. Why the league doesn't publish some of the information they've got is beyond me, they must have databases full of it given the amount of crap that gets lodged with the AFL (list lodgements, player contracts, footy dept soft caps, etc). Have to wonder whether the rights have been sold off to champion data or maybe it's mixed in with private info or something and they haven't dedicated resources to overcoming that.

At this time of year the most reliable thing seems to be a combination of crowdsourcing from bigfooty and other forums where people track stuff, and then cross-referencing it to club and player tweets or press releases. 🤦‍♀️

Anyway, hopefully you get to the bottom of it.

If it makes any difference one of the articles on the Collingwood website mentioned that they would have three draft picks after delisting a bunch of players.
 

Miguel Sanchez

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Draftguru.

It was 5 before I added Abbott, so yeah it was a miscount.

I think Collingwood might have more senior players on their list than I expected but I really don't think that's the case for Sydney - and I'm probably in a better position to figure that out than you are. My guess for Sydney is that Bell was upgraded but his upgrade hasn't been announced for some reason.
Now that lists are completed (subject to SSP rookie signings), I’ve only got 37 senior players for Sydney and Freo, which can’t be right obviously. Freo probably upgraded either Hughes or Giro. Sydney presumably upgraded Bell?

Nothing official for any of them, so we’ll have to wait for the team lists in the JLT footy record, which is annoying.
 

Miguel Sanchez

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Hughes as well.

Carter is still Cat B.

This article only mentions Giro. The website has him in the senior players and Hughes in the rookies (along with Dixon and North, so it’s relatively up to date)
 

Joao

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This article only mentions Giro. The website has him in the senior players and Hughes in the rookies (along with Dixon and North, so it’s relatively up to date)
May be correct but Hughes signed a 2 year extension early in the year which i didnt think you could do as a rookie.
 

Miguel Sanchez

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May be correct but Hughes signed a 2 year extension early in the year which i didnt think you could do as a rookie.
I think you can, and spend the first year of the extension on the rookie list before being promoted in the second year. We had Francis Watson do that.
 

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