Your next 5 spoons

Chaisa

Premium Platinum
Jun 2, 2013
9,917
8,776
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
The Exers
That's a bold prediction you would have to see richmond, st kilda and brisbane all pick up 4-5 wins
And Melbourne, carlton, GWS and the bulldogs to all win 3 games and this is assuming the bombers lose every match
If the bombers win this week it would be almost impossible though
The obvious argument is points being stripped.
 

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Purple Suit

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 30, 2011
8,238
13,828
Freo
AFL Club
Fremantle
2014: St. Kilda
2015: Essendon
2016: Essendon
2017: Carlton
2018: Fremantle - Ross Lyon effect. Will leave a sinking ship 2 years prior.
Ross Lyon is contracted (I mean an actual water tight contract without exit clauses) till the end of 2017. Even if the predictions of our burnt out list are true, I can't see us falling that far so quickly. While he's at the helm, he has long proven that he can coach and will be at least mid table at worst.
 

Iron

Norm Smith Medallist
May 26, 2014
6,737
14,136
AFL Club
Adelaide
Unless we're tanking, I don't think we'll "win" it this year, as Brisbane have just fallen off a cliff since Johnno Brown went down and it's hard to see them getting up again before the end of the year, whereas we steadied the ship a bit last week and now have a good chunk of our best 18 or 22 coming/due back from injury at last, over this next couple of games (eg. Montagna, Hickey, Dunstan, Schneider, Stanley, maybe Fisher), just as we have two of this year's biggest "disappointments", in Richmond and Carlton (both at Etihad). Win either of those games (far from a certainty, but a decent chance), or our game v WB, or our other game v Richmond, later in the year and I think Brisbane get the spoon.
I could see Brisbane winning a game against West Coast at home, or maybe Melbourne away. They're better at home against average sides. Not great, but better. Brown has missed a lot of games the last few years so I can't see how that'd affect them as much as it might seem.

The Saints play Richmond twice (the draw, am I right?), which could see them win one, but probably not because Richmond is better than their 3-10. Other than that, couldn't see them beating the Bulldogs or Blues; both are better teams.

Then it's just a matter of percentage. It's anyone's game, but I'd say the Saints are probably more likely to win it than the Lions.
 

Iron

Norm Smith Medallist
May 26, 2014
6,737
14,136
AFL Club
Adelaide
Ross Lyon is contracted (I mean an actual water tight contract without exit clauses) till the end of 2017. Even if the predictions of our burnt out list are true, I can't see us falling that far so quickly. While he's at the helm, he has long proven that he can coach and will be at least mid table at worst.
Where there's a will...
 

aussierulesrules

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 7, 2011
27,691
48,013
Heaven. I mean Victoria.
AFL Club
St Kilda
I could see Brisbane winning a game against West Coast at home, or maybe Melbourne away. They're better at home against average sides. Not great, but better. Brown has missed a lot of games the last few years so I can't see how that'd affect them as much as it might seem.
Brown has been instrumental in at least two of their wins this year (against us he held them together in the 2nd half when we were coming back hard at them and he kicked two crucial goals when no-one else looked like scoring for them and I remember he played a key role in at least one of their other 2 wins), then there is the evidence of how they have gone since he went down. In that game v GWS they were about level when he went off, well into the game, but they ended up losing by 40 points, at the Gabba, then the following week they had one of the lowest scoring first halves of football in the history of the game, so I think he was huge for them, both structurally, but also from a leadership and inspirational POV. They may lift for him and win this week for all we know, but if not, they won't get any easier games to win than the GWS game, at the Gabba and they lost that by 40 points.

I hope they do win a couple more though, because that will allow us to win a couple more ourselves and still possibly finish last and get first crack at all the drafts and so-on.

[/QUOTE]The Saints play Richmond twice (the draw, am I right?), which could see them win one, but probably not because Richmond is better than their 3-10. Other than that, couldn't see them beating the Bulldogs or Blues; both are better teams.
[/QUOTE]Have you seen which teams Carlton have lost to this year? They've lost to about 4 teams that most would consider to be "worse" than them, so them being "better" than us may not matter. I reckon if we'd had remotely close to our best team out on the park when we played them that we would have given that game a huge shake, too.

We've been crunched by injuries in the past couple of months, after a very promising start to the year- where we beat 3 teams who are currently higher on the ladder than Richmond, two that are level on wins with WB and Carlton and one that is higher than them all- but as I said, we're looking like getting a pretty decent chunk of our best 22 back in the next two games, so we could finally have the sort of team out on the park that we had in those first 6 rounds- when we won those 3 games and lost another by 3 points (after missing lots of gettable goals late).
 

Riccardo11

Cancelled
Jul 24, 2013
2,687
2,277
Allons-y!
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Port Melbourne
If St Kilda can get away with not coming last this year, which is admittedly unlikely, I don't think we will at all. Another year into the kids and hopefully some heavy recruiting might see us avoid the woodwork entirely.
 

master bate

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 13, 2006
13,252
10,695
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
If St Kilda can get away with not coming last this year, which is admittedly unlikely, I don't think we will at all. Another year into the kids and hopefully some heavy recruiting might see us avoid the woodwork entirely.
Maybe. I'm not trying to have a crack at the saints but the reality is next year Hayes will drop off more, Montagna and Riewoldt might decline and it's still a year too soon for most of the more talented kids to do much. Besides Hickey I don't really see a Key Position player who will step it up next year. Delaney is already decent but Bruce and Lee are question marks.

That said the saints have had a stiff run with injuries to Armitage, Steven and Hickey. They are 3 who can impact games as a trio in the midfield and then only need a couple of others (Montagna, Dunstan, maybe Seb Ross) and all of a sudden the midfield is competitive.

From watching years of bad Melbourne games I've come to realise if your midfield isn't even competitive at winning the ball and doing the running the rest wont matter regardless of who you have back or forward.
 

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Pea Nut

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 9, 2013
9,860
11,505
AFL Club
Adelaide
Interesting that not one person predicted the Gold Coast. They've been bottom 2 the last 2 years, and will finish dead last this year.
Very true, but think back to 2014. Suns were supposed to be an AFL powerhouse by now. No one would have predicted back then that they would become a basket case.
 

liam123

Club Legend
Sep 29, 2014
1,972
2,589
AFL Club
West Coast
Obviously very hard to predict

2020: gold coast
2021: St Kilda
2022: hawthorn
2023: hawthorn
2024: Geelong
 
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