Opinion Your passmark for 2014

[Partridge]

And I really don't understand this criticism of Lonergan, he is still integral to our team and there is no one ready to replace him.

Because he is clearly slowly down, and had some horrible moments in 2013. Ignoring it and pretending he's as good as ever will not end well either for him or the club. There's nothing wrong with pointing out that a replacement has to be groomed in the near future.

 

[Partridge]

people believe Mitch Brown is the better option because he's very good at VFL level and Lonergan isn't playing like Harry Taylor so they insist Lonergan is in trouble and needs to be replaced in 2014.

Let's see, in order..........wrong, wrong and partially correct.

No one had pre-ordained Brown as the immediate replacement for Lonergan. I know I have said quite clearly that if anyone was to take his spot at full-back tomorrow, it should be Taylor.

Lonergan's resemblance to Taylor has nothing to do with the discussion. Zero. It's due to his decline as a footballer. If you think he's as good as ever great. Some don't think that. Either way if they haven't got succession planning underway for a 30-year-old they'd be negligent.

If Lonergan can return to his best next year he's got nothing to worry about. If he displays the lack of form he showed in some games, and far more worryingly the lack of pace, he might very well need to be replaced next year. And the next best key defender we have right now - today - is Mitch Brown (and with West being traded, whatever crosshairs weren't trained on him definitely are now). But that doesn't reveal how the match committee will structure the side in March.

 

[catempire]

At the start of 2013 I was pretty pessimistic. Looking back at my prediction - bottom half of the 8 - I highlighted our ruck "woes" and our inside midfield deficiency as key concerns. They both loom as trouble spots for us again, although there is obviously scope for significant improvement in the ruck if we get a good run with injuries.

As for a pass-mark, it depends on what we are aiming for. In my mind, we are either aiming for a flag in which case anything short of it is a fail, or we are consolidating and building to a flag in 2015 and beyond, in which case something short of a flag is acceptable. It's not entirely clear which path we are headed down yet, although the ruthless approach to our senior player in the off-season - particularly Chappy - tends to indicate to me we are not squarely aiming at 2014. It will be telling what we start to do with players like Kelly, Stokes and Lonergan who are clearly best 22 right now but are probably preventing opportunities for others to get games.

I would be happy with bottom part of the 8 if we manage to get another 10-15 games into each of Smedts, GHS, Thurlow, Kersten, Walker and the best inside mid we draft.

 

[Partridge]

At the start of 2013 I was pretty pessimistic. Looking back at my prediction - bottom half of the 8 - I highlighted our ruck "woes" and our inside midfield deficiency as key concerns. They both loom as trouble spots for us again, although there is obviously scope for significant improvement in the ruck if we get a good run with injuries.

As for a pass-mark, it depends on what we are aiming for. In my mind, we are either aiming for a flag in which case anything short of it is a fail, or we are consolidating and building to a flag in 2015 and beyond, in which case something short of a flag is acceptable. It's not entirely clear which path we are headed down yet, although the ruthless approach to our senior player in the off-season - particularly Chappy - tends to indicate to me we are not squarely aiming at 2014. It will be telling what we start to do with players like Kelly, Stokes and Lonergan who are clearly best 22 right now but are probably preventing opportunities for others to get games.

I would be happy with bottom part of the 8 if we manage to get another 10-15 games into each of Smedts, GHS, Thurlow, Kersten, Walker and the best inside mid we draft.

Certainly will be. Stokes has in his favour that he's just come off the best season in his career; the other two are on the down side. But exactly how tough Scott will be the great unknown. He's done it in the off-season this year, how tough will selection be when the home and away year is in progress is the big question.

 

[catempire]

Certainly will be. Stokes has in his favour that he's just come off the best season in his career; the other two are on the down side. But exactly how tough Scott will be the great unknown. He's done it in the off-season this year, how tough will selection be when the home and away year is in progress is the big question.

Yes, perhaps unfair to include Stokes in that company given his 2013 season, but I just feel that the end could come quickly for him.

I'm not going to demand that they give preference to youngsters over those I mentioned, but if they do persist with the older players it says to me they are trying to snatch another flag. They will rightly be judged on that approach - if they are to take it - by their success or failure. However if they go with youth it sends a strong signal as to their aspirations.

 

[Partridge]

Yes, perhaps unfair to include Stokes in that company given his 2013 season, but I just feel that the end could come quickly for him.

I'm not going to demand that they give preference to youngsters over those I mentioned, but if they do persist with the older players it says to me they are trying to snatch another flag. They will rightly be judged on that approach - if they are to take it - by their success or failure. However if they go with youth it sends a strong signal as to their aspirations.

No one is more qualified to be unfair to Stokes than me - but he was unbelievable in 2013. Really remarkable turnaround. Very rare for a footballer to recognise the flaws in his game, and play within specific limitations for the team. For a superb return.

 

[BotsMaster]

No one is more qualified to be unfair to Stokes than me - but he was unbelievable in 2013. Really remarkable turnaround. Very rare for a footballer to recognise the flaws in his game, and play within specific limitations for the team. For a superb return.

Were you one of the many Stokes haters last year?

 

[catempire]

Were you one of the many Stokes haters last year?

Let's just say Partridge... "found it hard to forgive" Stokes for the 2008 Grand Final.

 

[candiehappy]

No one is more qualified to be unfair to Stokes than me - but he was unbelievable in 2013. Really remarkable turnaround. Very rare for a footballer to recognise the flaws in his game, and play within specific limitations for the team. For a superb return.

totally agree, it was the best possible reaction to seeing young players lining up to take his spot

 

[speedybundy]

Because he is clearly slowly down, and had some horrible moments in 2013. Ignoring it and pretending he's as good as ever will not end well either for him or the club. There's nothing wrong with pointing out that a replacement has to be groomed in the near future.

Agree with everything there, but I personally can't see Brown playing on a Franklin or Cloke next year. Hope I'm wrong on that. But I think people saying that Lonergan might be forced out of the team next year are being extremely optimistic.

 

[The Quandrinator]

I'll try to remember the "Pass Mark" heading in responding to this one

[Position] Pass Mark - top 4 - after all we are rebuilding

I'm expecting a High Distinction, top 2 finish - we might be rebuilding but we're far better placed than say Brisbane of 2005 or West Coast of 2007. If a few dice roll the right way I think we could have a very difficult team to beat a la 2007/ 2008 quality

[Players]

We have a couple who are very close to being absolute stars in Bundy, Guthrie, Duncs, Caddy and Mots. I'm expecting all five of them to really stand up next year. Yeah, so what Duncs made some mistakes - I'm over it already, he's 22 FFS.

Pass Mark is at least three of those have great years and the others to maintain where they are.

Where the real improvement can come from is the next 12 players and I'm backing at least six of them to stand up big time as the pass mark. Those 12 are all around the 20-22 age group except 1 (Big Daws) and none of them have had a lot of influence yet really. Those 12 are, in order of importance, that they step up: Dawson Simpson, Shane Kersten, Nathan Vardy, George Horlin-Smith, Jordan Schroder, Mitch Brown, Jordan Murdoch, Jackson Thurlow, Josh Walker, Jessie Stringer, Linc McCarthy and Dan Menzel. If six can stand up to about the level where Duncan is now, that's a pass mark, but, if those last two come good with their fitness we're back in 2007

[Off-field]

I'll give the club a pass if they can sort out some decent offerings for Interstate membership. They're missing a massive market there by not providing good value in the Full Membership options. If they had a package that was the same price as Full Membership but included a mix of games and merchandise and gave full member rights, they would sell heaps of them. (As an example I pay about $800 for my family so I have Finals rights but I'm lucky to see three H/A games a year - I'm super committed obviously and not short of cash but I reckon I'd be unusual) Offer 5 games of choice and a framed pic or exclusive shirt or something better than the usual scarf and cap.

 

[Whit3y]

[Players]

Where the real improvement can come from is the next 12 players and I'm backing at least six of them to stand up big time as the pass mark. Those 12 are all around the 20-22 age group except 1 (Big Daws) and none of them have had a lot of influence yet really. Those 12 are, in order of importance, that they step up: Dawson Simpson, Shane Kersten, Nathan Vardy, George Horlin-Smith, Jordan Schroder, Mitch Brown, Jordan Murdoch, Jackson Thurlow, Josh Walker, Jessie Stringer, Linc McCarthy and Dan Menzel. If six can stand up to about the level where Duncan is now, that's a pass mark

your over-confidence is your weakness.

 

[pinion]

And I really don't understand this criticism of Lonergan, he is still integral to our team and there is no one ready to replace him.

personally, i'd like mitch brown to push one of lonergan or rivers out of the side.

although our defence was outstanding last year and kept us in those close finals against the hawks and dockers when we were otherwise completely outplayed, our three talls in defence are 29, 29 and 27. add a 31 year old enright and 29 year old mackie, and that's a big problem. my hope is not that lonergan falls in a heap, but that a 23 year old can find a spot.

 

[The Quandrinator]

Because he is clearly slowly down, and had some horrible moments in 2013. Ignoring it and pretending he's as good as ever will not end well either for him or the club. There's nothing wrong with pointing out that a replacement has to be groomed in the near future.

I reckon there's two already with potential. The obvious is Brown - he's only 23 which is young for a key position player anywhere yet - so I haven't given up on him at either end of the park. The other one I reckon might just work there is Blicavs. He needs a bit more of a footy body to wrestle with the Buddy and Cloke types but they won't outrun, outjump or outthink him. I can see Blitz not really being needed as a ruck and that's one excellent option for him.

Thurlow will be good but he's more in the Enright/Mackie mold

 

[you pick one]

personally, i'd like mitch brown to push one of lonergan or rivers out of the side.

although our defence was outstanding last year and kept us in those close finals against the hawks and dockers when we were otherwise completely outplayed, our three talls in defence are 29, 29 and 27. add a 31 year old enright and 29 year old mackie, and that's a big problem. my hope is not that lonergan falls in a heap, but that a 23 year old can find a spot.

Lonners played every round and nearly every minute this year,Brown couldn't push him out with a Bulldozer.

 

[The Quandrinator]

your over-confidence is your weakness.

Or maybe my confidence is the reason for my success? We can all sit here moaning about everything that might be wrong or we can respect the decisions of the club that has delivered 7 prelims in 10 years.

 

[The Quandrinator]

Amazing when you think of it like that.

70% chance of making another next year then

I hope so. I think we're on the right track, really I do.

Give us two functioning rucks and the consequent first use of the ball and we have plenty of personnel to get the job done. I still reckon Daws going down with a crook knee killed us this year - we were just starting to look really hot. Both Daws and HMac are training apparently ... let's hope it stays that way

We do need to get smarter with our inside fifties but that will come

 

[Whit3y]

We do need to get smarter with our inside fifties but that will come

shouldn't we already be smarter in our inside fifties? the amount of times we bombed it to hawkins 2 on 1 or kicked it long to stokes 1 on 1 even your optimistic self would say was far to many times.

 

[dazbroncos]

the Brown debate has been done to death anyway and I'm sure people are sick of hearing about it but I'm pretty confident Wells drafts our future Lonergan replacement in 3 weeks time anyways as Mitch is good for the Mackie-type role.

Exactly. Mitch is Mackie's replacement. Not Domsy. In terms of body type and playing style, Walker (if he is moved to defender) is more they type I would see replacing Domsy.

Go Catters

 

[The Quandrinator]

shouldn't we already be smarter in our inside fifties? the amount of times we bombed it to hawkins 2 on 1 or kicked it long to stokes 1 on 1 even your optimistic self would say was far to many times.

Agree - I definitely would. Play-wise, that's my one big gripe with this year! My understanding of the game plan was we were meant to be mixing it up with strong leads to HF and the occasional long bomb over the top into a "Pagan's paddock". What it turned into was a rabble.

However I'm optimistic that there's enough collective intelligence amongst the coaches and players to see that and work it through. Having faster options leading into space like Smedts, Murdoch and Kersten will help I think - neither Pods nor Hawk were doing much of that. Again I'm hopeful that's a symptom of a) 21 year olds' inexperience; b) injured Tomahawk and general lack of support for him (Pods was too much the same as Tom) and c) lack of centre clearances slowing up the entries

 

[Partridge]

Were you one of the many Stokes haters last year?

I was THE Stokes hater.

 

[Partridge]

Lonners played every round and nearly every minute this year,Brown couldn't push him out with a Bulldozer.

Did you happen to watch Lonergan against Fremantle in the Qualifying Final? Or against Petrie in Round 2? Whether he played every round is not relevant to how good he looked.

I haven't seen anywhere it postulated that Brown must replace Lonergan as a full back. The argument, is Lonergan needs to be phased out over the next year or so, and Brown is the best qualified right now to join the defensive group. It does NOT mean he plays full back. I've said before, the most seamless transition I see would be Taylor take full back (he does in some games already - Round 22 v Sydney the most recent example where he murdered Tippett), Rivers goes to CHB and Brown takes the third spot. Or those two swap roles depending on the opposition. If Brown can develop and grab CHB that would be even better.

That's what the hypothetical scenario is. It isn't Brown going to full back in Round 1.

 

[Partridge]

Let's just say Partridge... "found it hard to forgive" Stokes for the 2008 Grand Final.

Quite so. Still haven't.

 

[BotsMaster]

Let's just say Partridge... "found it hard to forgive" Stokes for the 2008 Grand Final.

I was THE Stokes hater.

Well it wasn't entirely Stokes' fault for the Grand Final loss as a lot of it was to do with the MC making poor decisions on the day. Stokes playing on Hodge was the worst decision ever.

 

[Partridge]

Well it wasn't entirely Stokes' fault for the Grand Final loss as a lot of it was to do with the MC making poor decisions on the day. Stokes playing on Hodge was the worst decision ever.

That is true. But he lied to the match committee and said he was fit when he knew he wasn't. That's unforgivable in the most important game of the season.