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Mercuri Rising

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Howe lost his fwd dpp and I can't see his average improving, 85-92 sounds about right. Better options around his price :heavymultiply:
Better options as you say and I almost certainly won't pick him, but I reckon he could get well up into the high 90s this year, assuming he stays back and doesn't have to do too many jobs. Averaged ~98 after moving back last year iirc.
 

RobZombie

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Was this in regards to starting with Wells or Sidey?

Sidey I like buy Treloar and Pendles steal all the points. Wells being there just adds to the problem.

At North Wells was an important cog and involved in a lot of scoring chains. I think at Collingwood and surrounded by such quality game winners he finds it hard to pump out tonnes from his 20-25 touches.
Not particularly related to the SC prospects of either, though probably more so Sidey.

My point was that it's a mistake to think of Wells as a purely outside player, which lots of people outside NM tend to do. He stagnated in that role under Laidley and won 2 B&Fs when Scott let him win his own ball. I obviously don't know Bucks' plans for him, but he's most effective when he plays his complete game. So people predicting specific roles for DeGoey and Sidey based on Wells running up and down the wing might be off the mark. Of course if his calves stay the way they are, then DeGoey and Sidey get all the midfield minutes they could want.

Last year I said Wells was clearly the best player in the comp under $300K, which he was. I don't think he's relevant as a mid only this year.
 

cdcanman

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Luke Parker – 608k
Will average around the 100-110 mark but given he is somewhat overpriced and wont be running until the new year due to post season knee surgery it’s a no for me.
Correct me if I am wrong, I will certainly bow to your Swans knowledge, but didn't Parker have an interrupted preseason last year (Knee?)? Question marks over his early season were raised only for him to come out and score 161, 116 and 129 in the opening 3 rounds. Or did I imagine all of that? Certainly possible
 

cdcanman

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Possibly, I think he plays a roll that we have excess in already. Its hard to see him getting the round 1 gig
I think there is close to zero chance he plays early for the very reasons you have mentioned. Kennedy must be well ahead of him. Kelly also doing everything possible to demand more mid time
 

Xhoquelin

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I know it's a bit of an ask but given that there's quite a few quality previews on here, would someone be able to collate all the previews into the one OP?
 

Thuggee_Cult

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Correct me if I am wrong, I will certainly bow to your Swans knowledge, but didn't Parker have an interrupted preseason last year (Knee?)? Question marks over his early season were raised only for him to come out and score 161, 116 and 129 in the opening 3 rounds. Or did I imagine all of that? Certainly possible
From memory he did a full preseason last year and he usually does consistently year in year out, I don't recall him being managed/missing large periods of training - usually it is Heeney who has, to date, done modified preseasons.
The photo below was taken last Friday from the club website.
FWIW there is still two months to go and he looks in pretty good nick despite him only just starting to run, IMO he is still a valid selection either way.

 

cdcanman

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From memory he did a full preseason last year and he usually does consistently year in year out, I don't recall him being managed/missing large periods of training - usually it is Heeney who has, to date, done modified preseasons.
The photo below was taken last Friday from the club website.
FWIW there is still two months to go and he looks in pretty good nick despite him only just starting to run, IMO he is still a valid selection either way.
I decided to stop being lazy and to have a look for myself.
He had that broken leg that caused him to miss finals in 2015.

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2015-12-15/parker-returns-to-full-training

Not sure why I can't get it to hyperlink correctly, but there is the article anyway.
Love the bloke, think I'll pick him
 

Thuggee_Cult

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I decided to stop being lazy and to have a look for myself.
He had that broken leg that caused him to miss finals in 2015.

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2015-12-15/parker-returns-to-full-training

Not sure why I can't get it to hyperlink correctly, but there is the article anyway.
Love the bloke, think I'll pick him
Good pick up, you got me there, I totally forgot about the busted ankle. :thumbsu: Bloody Taylor Adams :drunk:

The only (minor) difference is he had done some running pre-Christmas before last year, but other than that the two preseasons aren't too dissimilar (save for 3/4 weeks) so he clearly does his rehab well.

On top of that with TMitch out there is scope for him getting more points, interesting- s**t now I'm thinking of picking him. :p
 

Hairy Lager

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From memory he did a full preseason last year and he usually does consistently year in year out, I don't recall him being managed/missing large periods of training - usually it is Heeney who has, to date, done modified preseasons.
The photo below was taken last Friday from the club website.
FWIW there is still two months to go and he looks in pretty good nick despite him only just starting to run, IMO he is still a valid selection either way.

He had a horror run the season before and burnt many SC's including myself, was on the don't touch list but went owf the charts and burnt me bad IIRC.
 

Sydney Kicker

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Just tried to cover the relevant and interesting players - other Hawks feel free to disagree with my opinion or offer alternative views.
Can't see much potential in our rookies.

DEF

Howe 344.9 D/M
Won't average enough

Hodge 481.3 D
Priced below potential but will probably miss games.
Definitely worth a punt as a starter, not really a trade in target.
Will likely spend time around the ball, Hawks like to spread the load especially early in the year while O'Meara and Mitchell find their feet.
Giving up the C may benefit him – concentrating more on his own game.
Could reward those early in the year who take a punt on him.

Burton 254.6 D/F
Lots of potential will play most games but awkward price
Won't average enough, avoid

Burgoyne 515.4 D
Will probably be nursed early in the year. Resilient but getting on a bit.
Strongly consider as a trade in late in the year but very role dependent, if Hawks need wins in the last few rounds expect him to shine.
No value in current price – can get better players for just a few $ more.

Gibson 490.4 D
Will tease, too many really low scores and scoring is very role dependent.
Too many good defenders likely to better his yearly average.
If you do want him could be a trade in after he puts in 1 or 2 stinkers.

Birchall 457.5 D
Like Gibbo average just a tic below the best defenders, def not this year with so much quality in defence.

MID

Mitchell 565.6 M
Lot of interest for good reason, will get tons of ball though probably not as much as the optimists predict.
Only question is the Hawks tend to share it around a lot more than other teams – not many Hawks amongst the top superpremos over the last few years of SC.
Probably a very good chance to step up to 110+ this year, worst case surely he goes at least 105.
Durable.
Spoilt for choice around his level in mids. Fyfe a better bet at his price.

O'Meara 318.9 M
Wait and see his preseason. No idea how he will go but must be risky.
Despite rumours could start R1.
Very tempting but Swallow might be a better bet for a bit less coin.
May be eased into the season.

RUCK
No one
Either midpricers with mid price output or rookies who won't play much (or at all)

FOR

Vickery 310.4 F
Ha ha. No

Roughead 367.1 F
Yes, worth the risk
Wouldn't get the C if Hawks didn't think he could carry the load.
Legit premo in past years, could be a keeper (30-40% chance IMHO) but prepare to be disappointed
Would expect low to mid 90 average most likely

Schoenmakers 155.1 F
Marginal best 22 – poor JS.
Scoring likely to mirror 123k rookies – perhaps 5-10 ppg better.
Only consider if Hawks have injuries and/or not enough good cheaper rookies.

Smith 440.2 F/M
Probably not keeper material, average too low, avoid

Rioli 490 F
Interesting given a weak range of forward choices this year.
Surprisingly reliable to average low to mid 90s every year.
Not the greatest history re durability but has improved now his hammies are under control.
Expensive for output and likely average. Better as a trade in target after a few bad weeks.
Probably a no.

Gunston 502.3 F
Durable and reliable, worth strong consideration especially now Rough is back.
Potential keeper though will be a level below the best forwards (Dal, Riewoldt etc).
Good choice.

Best selections in order

Roughead
Mitchell
Hodge
O'Meara (if he plays R1)
Gunston
Schoenmakers (if he plays)
 

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TheBeardAmigos

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from our board.

Went to training this morning. Watched a quarter of full match Teal vs Orange.
Some observations:
As others have said, SPP looks huge. Looks like he's 23 years old not 18. Depending on fitness and form in pre season games I'd definitely pencil him in for round 1. Got winded early so didn't see much of him play, but from what I saw he goes in hard.
Matty White looks cherry ripe to play round 1. Got a lot of it.
Dougal was playing which surprised me, as was Dixon.
There is nothing wrong with Polec. Got plenty of the ball.
Aiden Johnson is bigger than I thought.
Jimmy Toumpas still makes the same mistakes that cost goals. Will be delisted at years end.
Think our forward line will still be our Achilles Heel.
Ryder looked good but his timing seemed off.
 

RobZombie

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Ah, thread's open again ...

This is actually a more interesting year for NM than the last couple. Including Brad McKenzie (played rounds 8-22), there are 6 senior spots and almost 500 SC points gone from the starting 22. Two of those spots are in the midfield, where Dumont and Clarke look like ready-to-go heirs apparent. There’s a tall and a small forward gone, and a tall and a general defender spot vacant. Waite, Wright, Higgins, Turner, Jacobs, McDonald, Wood, and Garner all missed the second half of the season or more. Williams and Hrovat were traded in and should both be a chance for regular senior footy, and all the draftees from 2014 and 2015 should expect to get their chance this year.

Jacobs, Wright, Daw, Brown, Thompson and now Anderson and Goldstein all have had some injury/fitness issues in preseason so far. Jy Simkpin is being managed but has no injury concerns.

So there looks like plenty of upside for cash cows and a couple of breakout contenders. Problem is they may decide to rotate young players through the 22, so there might not be enough JS for any one of them to be a good gamble.

Defense
Robbie Tarrant

Stayed on the park for a full season, collected a B&F, AA squad nom (and stiff to miss the 22). Super player. Rance lite, with a similar ceiling but lower floor, only 5 tons to Rance’s 9 and only $35k cheaper. Enough good DEF premo and breakout options this year that even though I’d happily back him to bring another 90+ average he looks like a poor gamble as a POD.

Jamie Macmillan

Once Pogba finally traded him out and stopped weighing him down, averaged 100.5 from rds 14-22 before copping an injury in rd23. Has shown a couple of seasons in a row that he’s capable of putting strong runs together including multiple 130+ scores. Possible POD depending on his role – if some combination of Marley Williams, Mullett and debutants nail down spots he won’t be forced deep into defense.

Scott Thompson

Cooked. Nope.

Shaun Atley

If Atley’s training with the mids it must be January. More likely will remain on the HBF but if Williams is regular best 22 his footspeed and rebounding help could well help Ats improve his numbers. Not in an SC relevant way though.

Luke McDonald

Good shot to continue the improvement he was showing before he did his hammy chasing down Cyril. Should see some midfield minutes this year. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him add 15 SC points but you can find 80ppg for less than 300K.

Sam Wright

Good interceptor and rebounder when on song but a career midpricer and had ankle surgery before Xmas. Has the job ahead of him to get enough preseason to be match fit by Rd1. Even if I were tempted to try and pump him up that kills it. Nope.

Aaron Mullett

Useful squad player who had some decent games to close out 2016 (including a 106 vs GWS) but seems unlikely to ever be settled best 22. Nope.

Lachie Hansen

Flirted briefly with possible SC relevance 2-3 years ago before hip problems and concussions stuffed him. Nope.

Marley Williams

Oh Jeez, I just looked at his 2016 SC numbers. Was he even worth pick 105? Change of scene and being traded for peanuts might be the boot up the date he needed, but way too expensive for basically rookie levels of JS and expected output. Nope.

Mitch Hibberd

Unlike a lot at NM, seems to know how to find the footy and has D/M DPP. Watch in the JLT and has definite cash cow potential.

Daniel Nielson

I’ve liked what I’ve seen of him at training but he’s a yet to debut lockdown KPD. Pick him if he’s the only possible downgrade in his bubble week and you’re desperate.

Ed Vickers-Willis

Looks like a natural replacement for Firrito and has a bit of Macmillan’s game about him as well. Probably stiff not to debut last year. Watch in the JLT and consider strongly if he’s picked rd1.

Nick Larkey

Speculative/project KP swingman. I’d be surprised if he plays this year but seems like a good kid. Has DEF/FWD DPP if you need that for late season loopholes.

Declan Watson

A couple of our training watchers have been impressed by him. Haven’t seen him in person because the rookies were at an induction camp of some sort last time I was down. Might already be in the same mix as Nielsen/Durdin/EVW for a debut.

Oscar Junker

The Juice! Rookie listed tallish utility with floppy blond curly hair, so has obviously drawn comparisons to Fyfe on the North board. Sadly out for a couple of months with a broken tibia now. Could consider as a cash cow if he gets a promotion to the senior list.

Matt Taylor

Amazing how many elite ball users slip to the rookie draft, hey? He actually does look like a really nice kick and has experience playing against mature bodies in the WAFL but is said to be well short of AFL level endurance at this stage.

Midfield
Jack Ziebell

There’s a fair body of evidence by now that JZ is basically a burst player and lacks whatever it is to take his consistency to A+ levels. I’ll throw in the “captaincy could take him to another level” thing I suppose, but I’d like him more as a M/F DPP, not least because that would mean Scott is actually using him like that. Pass.

Sam Gibson

Not going to magically find an inside game at 30, and that’s not his role anyway. No signs that he’s undervalued at $468K. Pass.

Andrew Swallow

We’re holding out some hope that he might rediscover a step with his first full preseason in a while, but his SC relevant days are gone. Pass.

Ben Cunnington

The inverse of Gibson. Good at what he does but frustrating for what he lacks. No sign of him magically developing an outside game. Love watching him play but Pass.

Trent Dumont

I actually like him as a smokey. Done his apprenticeship and there’s a role and plenty of midfield points to be picked up somewhere. I think he’s a genuine breakout candidate. If you’re the sort to like midfield midprice PODs, consider.

Ryan Clarke

Personally responsible for several houses along Macaulay Rd being trained down. Could be a rare exception to the no 2nd year players rule. Genuine accumulator with a good tank and should play from round 1. M/F DPP should bring him into consideration.

Nathan Hrovat

Should play plenty and has M/F DPP like Clarke. I don’t think he has quite as much upside as he’ll likely be more FWD/MID than the other way round, but I haven’t seen that much of him.

Ben Jacobs

Best case he progresses from pure tagger to a decent 2-way midfielder. Worst case is he never gets over his foot issues. Still not in full training. Wouldn’t be relevant anyway. Pass.

Paul Ahern

Won’t play this year as the medical staff work on his ACL rehab for 2018. That does automatically open up a rookie LTI promotion spot. Also potentially useful for M/F DPP loopholing late in the season if you want to do that.

Will Fordham

A bit in the Gibson mould. Endurance freak who’ll run up and down the wing all day. I’d guess he hopes to be the 1st rookie in line for Ahern’s LTI spot. If he cements a spot would be an ok cash cow.

Mitch Hibberd

See defenders

Declan Mountford

Looking supremely fit in preseason and had a good first season in the VFL. Should be part of the rotating cast to get a look this year. If he’s on the bubble, sure, go for it.

Josh Williams

Fast, good ball user, but real skinny and behind a fair few in the midfield pecking order.

Oscar Junker

See defenders

Ruck
Todd Goldstein

Some percentage of Norf Goggles, but I’m likely to take him over Gawn to start. He’s been more durable than Max over the journey, the 3rd man up rules will help him not only in HTA but also not getting a knee in the kidneys at every second contest. He’s had the summer to get the knee right and he’s got 5-10ppg improvement in him. Been managed for an ankle problem recently but that might actually be good news – it’s not his knee.

Majak Daw

R/F DPP but not a better option than Ryder at only $40K cheaper. Unfortunately just had a meniscus repaired that will sideline him for a month. I just want to see him make the most of his chance, don’t care what he does in SC.

Preuss

Christ, we’ve only got 3 rucks on the list and one of them is really a KPF. If Goldy goes down the Hybrid will be a fine cash cow. Otherwise will barely play. Massive unit with a Mumford-like approach to the game.

Forward
Waite

That 126ppg start to 2016 was fun but nobody in their right mind would pick him this year.

Wood

Candidate for a real breakout season with the remodelling of North’s forward line but doubtful how that would translate to SC. A tendency to be a bit injury prone. Great potential upside but would be the gutsiest POD ever. Pass

Higgins

Last year’s knee wasn’t really a “Higgins type injury”. Anyone can have someone fall across their leg. Looking good in preseason and should see his share of midfield minutes. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him back into the 90s avg. Without M/F DPP though, I’d pass.

Brown

Standard KPF. Will ton up now and then but not relevant. Pass.

Daw

See rucks

Thomas

See also Brown, but for small forwards. Pass

Clarke

See midfielders

Hrovat

See midfielders

Garner

Has a knack for making things happen but yet to prove that he can stay on the park or stay involved for 4 quarters. If he does put it together will be fun to watch but Pass.

Anderson

Was pretty ordinary for a lot of last year but was kept in the side despite that because no one else was fit. Should improve but without M/F DPP is not relevant. Pass

Wagner

He’s only $206K and should play his share of games, tearing up the track etc, so that’s something. But the reason he’s only $206K is that he averaged 38SC from 4 games in 2016. If by some miracle he gets on the bubble averaging 120 then by all means grab him.

Turner

Scott likes him and he has some runs on the board before his terrible 2016. Has competition from Hrovat, Garner, Anderson and Simpkin for that HF role but if he consolidates a spot should be a fair cash cow.

Simpkin

Hearing good things out of the club through preseason but still being managed given his broken leg last year. Will play, probably not round 1.

Ahern

See midfielders

Durdin

Mobile tall defender who can ruck a bit. Won’t play as a forward. Scott Thompson’s adductor problem might open up a spot for him early in the season but JS is probably patchy even so.

Ben McKay

If Maj had been fit I could have seen Scott going with a 4-talls setup, with Wood and Daw spending time up on the wing and through the midfield respectively. McKay’s a more traditional KPF though, so while he’s probably next in line after Maj he’s not a direct replacement. Should expect to play this season but not likely to be relevant.

Nick Larkey

See defenders

Josh Williams

See midfielders

Cameron Zurhaar

Probably 42nd in line for a game. No wait, there’s Ahern. So 41st. Might be neck and neck with Matt Watson. OK then, 40th. Definitely no better than 40th. Medium forward, should be good for Werribee.
 

RobZombie

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Following up on that ...

coming out of the intraclub, Hrovat was definitely the most impressive of any of the (somewhat) SC-relevant players. Clarke and Dumont struggled roving to their part-time rucks Larkey and Jefferies while Preuss put it down the throats of the Country mids all day. They were nevertheless both busy and good when they did have it, but the City team lacked KPFs as well as rucks so they didn't have much to deliver too either.

Higgins looks a class above in preseason so far.

Ben McKay is generating plenty of scoring shots and showing real intent at marking contests.

Wood looks fantastic.

Vickers-Willis and Hibberd showed glimpses but don't fill me with confidence about their early season JS.

Durdin needs to do more.

Marley Williams hasn't suddenly learned to kick.
 

Gresh_Magic

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Following up on that ...

coming out of the intraclub, Hrovat was definitely the most impressive of any of the (somewhat) SC-relevant players. Clarke and Dumont struggled roving to their part-time rucks Larkey and Jefferies while Preuss put it down the throats of the Country mids all day. They were nevertheless both busy and good when they did have it, but the City team lacked KPFs as well as rucks so they didn't have much to deliver too either.

Higgins looks a class above in preseason so far.

Ben McKay is generating plenty of scoring shots and showing real intent at marking contests.

Wood looks fantastic.

Vickers-Willis and Hibberd showed glimpses but don't fill me with confidence about their early season JS.

Durdin needs to do more.

Marley Williams hasn't suddenly learned to kick.
I've got EVW, Hibberd & McKay in my team atm
 
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