Analysis Youth and Pol Pot crazies

[Obese Arachnid]

Boyd is a disaster. $1Million Dollar man who aint that good. How will they keep all these other young stars in the making?

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-18/afl-on-the-verge-of-signing-new-tv-deal

THE AFL will reap a major financial windfall after striking a colossal new six-year, $2.508 billion broadcast rights agreement.

The new deal will see Channel Seven, Foxtel and Telstra continue as the League's broadcasters under the new deal, which will run from 2017 to 2022.

 

[ppoiter]

I have heard this a number of times but has anyone explained how we are going to get both these players with one top 20 draft pick? And if we do get both players, where is the drafting of another KPF feature in our plans. Good KPF players don't come cheaply unless McKenzie at Richmond defies the low pick at which he was taken and becomes a regular in the AFL team.

I can see how we might pick up Treloar and Aish if Scharenberg leaves but otherwise don't see how mathematically we can get both.

Trading of future picks or apparently they might accept Oxley and our second rounder for Aish (according to talk on their board)

 

[Madagascar]

We will hipefully get treloar and aish this year, sidebottom is also young. Hopefully we retain scharenberg because he is looking really good now at vfl level. And maynard is the youngest on our list at 18 and i reckon he will be a gun.

Pendlebury will play into his 30s as he has been pretty durable. Jamie elliott could be anything as well.

Grundy can be a star ruckman, and marsh will be an elite defender and moore an elite forward. Thats a good spine in the making.

De goey and broomhead im veru confident on...and lets just keep our fingers crossed on treloar.

Then there are a few from left field who could be jets like abbott, cox and nathan freeman.

I reckon that list is mouth watering to be honest.

Swan is the only one on our list i reckon will miss our premiership window, but even he is in great form so may hang in there

In the off-season we got Moore, Cox and Abbott. The future in the key tall department is very bright indeed.

 

[Old Spice]

100%. But I don't think we have missed the mark internally as well. What is said in public and whats going on internally are completely different. If they weren't, Nathan Buckley has failed two years in a row according to the club and he should well be sacked for not meeting expectations, the fact he hasn't said it all. The talk didn't come from us either, or the media infact. But it was us supporters (not all), you ask any football identity where they had us placed in 2015 and most will say "they're were I thought they would be", but it was us supporters that on a consistent basis was saying "when is the media going to notice us, why is it always an easy draw etc etc."

I generally believe we're in the same area as the dogs, a little bit of luck has gone their way, such as the Sydney game, where we have had none go our way add in bad kicking in the Hawthorn, Fremantle, Port, Richmond (first time), Sydney games etc.

Next year we will win those games against those 5 sides it they played the same way again. And that is the extra year the dogs has had on us with development.

The first thing to say is that Pert made the pitch before the beginning of the 2014 season when we'd just landed two top 10 picks, before Beams decided to leave, before Reid's chronic run of injuries, some questionable ingestions. I think it was an entirely reasonable suggestion at that point in time.

And this is really the point of the thread. Some things you can't anticipate and cover for. The club, any club, is going to say it doesn't matter what your birth certificate says because they don't want to give players an out. But in reality, these things do matter.

Personally speaking, I had us ending in the 7-12 range at the beginning of the year so this season doesn't outrage me. But then again some supporters only have 1 gear and are perpetually outraged regardless of realities and can't make adjustments to their assessments in the face of new information.

In any case, I think if we have a strong trade period this year as has been mooted, we should be winning more of those close games and pressing into the 8.

 

[Apex36]

I have heard this a number of times but has anyone explained how we are going to get both these players with one top 20 draft pick? And if we do get both players, where is the drafting of another KPF feature in our plans. Good KPF players don't come cheaply unless McKenzie at Richmond defies the low pick at which he was taken and becomes a regular in the AFL team.

I can see how we might pick up Treloar and Aish if Scharenberg leaves but otherwise don't see how mathematically we can get both.

If you base the Treloar trade on the Beams one, you're looking at a first, second pick and a player or later pick as a sweetener.
Aish could likely be had for a first rounder in the teens, or a second rounder with a player like Oxley (Qld boy).

With the advent of trading future picks, we easily have the currency for both, and that's before even taking in to account any picks gained from possible player movement.

 

[Apex36]

In the off-season we got Moore, Cox and Abbott. The future in the key tall department is very bright indeed.

Abbott is not a tall.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

If you base the Treloar trade on the Beams one, you're looking at a first, second pick and a player or later pick as a sweetener.
Aish could likely be had for a first rounder in the teens, or a second rounder with a player like Oxley (Qld boy).

With the advent of trading future picks, we easily have the currency for both, and that's before even taking in to account any picks gained from possible player movement.

Thanks I am out of the loop on future picks but am boning up on their introduction via the Aish thread on the Brisbane board.

 

[si tacuisses]

S

So you are saying Hine has lost the plot?

I see what you did there.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I see what you did there.

He needs To work On his Presentation

 

[swoop42]

Average age of the Collingwood side last weekend 23y 322 days
Average games 88

Average age of the Western Bulldogs last weekend 23y 310 days
Average games 59

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Our youth is not as good as the dog's youth. They had higher draft picks and got big bodied tall guys like Stringer and Bontempelli. By the time the draft got to our pick in the Stringer draft, all that was left for us was 2 short people and a ruckman who had slid down the order. When we did have top draft picks we unfortunately selected Scharenburg and Freeman who have spent 2 seasons trying to regain health. There is nothing wrong with the approach we took, but we have been unlucky with many of our early selections or simply didn't have a high enough pick to get players of outstanding quality.

The other aspect of our recruiting you overlook is the plethora of players we have with ordinary disposal skills. I don't think anyone is truly advocating ditching the entire squad and going back to year zero, but there is nothing wrong with admitting that skill wise we are not looking as flash as many of our opponents. Watching the likes of Cloke and Blair miss gettable shots while our opposition consistently slot similar kicks is hardly a new experience. Similarly, watching players bombing the ball out of the backline and midfield onto the heads of our forwards has been a regular experience for supporters over several years.

Moore and DeGoey are the best top 10 draft selections we have had in years. Hopefully we continue to be astute with our picks, but like the Bulldogs, we need to finish low on the ladder to be able to get quality players. However, to suggest that our youth is as good as that of the Bulldogs, with the only difference being the head start they have on us, is not really an honest assessment of our current squad.

You do realise the Dogs haven't won anything since 1954 and only made one more grand final in 1961
That's not exactly stellar; so personally I wouldn't get too excited about quoting Western Bulldogs as an example of where we are or not. When they start making grand finals then perhaps they can feel a role model

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Average age of the Collingwood side last weekend 23y 322 days
Average games 88

Average age of the Western Bulldogs last weekend 23y 310 days
Average games 59

Stars and lies. Not saying the stats are lying, but they can..

How many first year players out of interest?

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Abbott is not a tall.

No not a tall
But he's
The Big Show!

 

[JB1975]

No-one wants to hear about the inexperience in our list as any type of explanation for how we've dropped off in the second part of this season. The counter argument to this youth 'excuse' is that the Dogs have done particularly well this season with a very young list.

The fact that the Dogs have shot ahead with kids after losing experienced players like Higgins, Griffen and Cooney last year, suggests we've gone awry, badly.

Yet the fact remains the Dogs are a few years ahead in their youth development. Their early young draft picks are a few years into the system while our early young picks have just hatched. The Dogs started to drop off and land early picks post 2009 while we dropped off post 2012 for our early picks.

There's youth, and there's youth. A young player 3-4 seasons in is not the same as a young player 1-2 seasons in. Especially when we're talking about top-end picks and when two of our top 10's of 2 drafts ago have 2 games between them. You can call it an excuse but there are just some realities you can't leapfrog. Like a tank and a strong body, like experience and tricks.

It's worth remembering that the Dogs ended 15th last year. 15th. There is no stepping over some realities, no matter how many platitudes and exhortations you want to lay down.

The mad Pol Pot thought Cambodia could leapfrog the reality of that countries situation and declare it as some advanced state by simply stating it as a fact and by dent of ridiculous dictates. Any tit can declare whatever they like by fiat. I can declare I'm the Queen of Sheeba but wanting something to be so doesn't make it so.

So when I read stuff in here about pulling the structure down on top of us, and starting again from year zero, I am bemused. We've got to stay the course.

I just want to reiterate that I agree with most of your points: the Bulldogs have a greater spread of young players who are at a more advanced stage of their development. However, I've bolded most of your first sentence in order to highlight a fundamental truth, a truth which the rest of the thread has underscored: there are those who don't want to hear about the inevitable limitations of young and inexperienced players, and those people will throw up any number of examples and stats to support their unceasing grievances. Keep up the good fight, but do so in the knowledge that the unreasonable cannot be reasoned with.

I disagree with you on Pert. The unexpected should be expected, or at least the unexpected should temper the public pronouncements of CEOs. I would also suggest that Pert probably regretted his comments at the time, and regrets them all the more now.

 

[si tacuisses]

He needs To work On his Presentation

Are You saying Thatsgold needs to be Banned?

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

I just want to reiterate that I agree with most of your points: the Bulldogs have a greater spread of young players who are at a more advanced stage of their development. However, I've bolded most of your first sentence in order to highlight a fundamental truth, a truth which the rest of the thread has underscored: there are those who don't want to hear about the inevitable limitations of young and inexperienced players, and those people will throw up any number of examples and stats to support their unceasing grievances. Keep up the good fight, but do so in the knowledge that the unreasonable cannot be reasoned with.

I disagree with you on Pert. The unexpected should be expected, or at least the unexpected should temper the public pronouncements of CEOs. I would also suggest that Pert probably regretted his comments at the time, and regrets them all the more now.

Some of us think that it is not so much inexperience as poor skills and average talent that have effected our ability to win a game, but don't let that get in the way of a good story.

 

[Markfs]

Well one thing I'd say about the Dogs youth is they brought in some fairly hard bodied young players which we haven't done. Stringer Wallis Bontempelli McCrae probably only DeGoey you can compare to big talent like that.

You're right on the money with this post.
Stringer - pick 5 2012 draft
Wallis - pick 22 2010 draft
Bontempelli - pick 4 2013 draft
McCrae - pick 6 2012 draft

We were picking up grundy and kennedy and broomhead in the 2012. Why the hell didnt we pick up Stringer and McCrae???????? We completely ignored them!

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

You're right on the money with this post.
Stringer - pick 5 2012 draft
Wallis - pick 22 2010 draft
Bontempelli - pick 4 2013 draft
McCrae - pick 6 2012 draft

We were picking up grundy and kennedy and broomhead in the 2012. Why the hell didnt we pick up Stringer and McCrae???????? We completely ignored them!

No we didn't. They were long gone before our pick. Only short people and questionable talls were available by our pick 18.

 

[JB1975]

Some of us think that it is not so much inexperience as poor skills and average talent that have effected our ability to win a game, but don't let that get in the way of a good story.

If you don't get in the way of my story then I won't get in the way of yours. It seems to be the way of things around here.

I'm aware of your story about the deplorable skills of our players. You then relate this to the talent of our list. Do you really think that we've recruited more sub-standard players than other clubs? Do you really think that every other club (or even most) have recruited a greater range of competent kicks?

Well, I suppose that's exactly what you believe. You don't think for a second that the ongoing efforts of players to adjust to a particular style of play might compromise their ability to effectively dispose of the ball? You don't think for a moment that the youth and inexperience of players might impact on their ability to deal with pressure, thereby (a) compromising their ability to dispose of the ball and/or (b) their decision-making? You don't think for a moment that so many supporters of other clubs (all except for Hawthorn I'd say) are also in a state of constant lament about the skills (or lack thereof) of their list?

No, you don't think about these things. You're too busy telling yourself the story about how the sky was falling...

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

If you don't get in the way of my story then I won't get in the way of yours. It seems to be the way of things around here.

I'm aware of your story about the deplorable skills of our players. You then relate this to the talent of our list. Do you really think that we've recruited more sub-standard players than other clubs? Do you really think that every other club (or even most) have recruited a greater range of competent kicks?

Well, I suppose that's exactly what you believe. You don't think for a second that the ongoing efforts of players to adjust to a particular style of play might compromise their ability to effectively dispose of the ball? You don't think for a moment that the youth and inexperience of players might impact on their ability to deal with pressure, thereby (a) compromising their ability to dispose of the ball and/or (b) their decision-making? You don't think for a moment that so many supporters of other clubs (all except for Hawthorn I'd say) are also in a state of constant lament about the skills (or lack thereof) of their list?

No, you don't think about these things. You're too busy telling yourself the story about how the sky was falling...

Very soon you will be rivaling BJ for my non affection. You mention Hawthorn who are well known to have made disposal skills the lynch pin of their recruiting strategy. Why didn't we? I don't need you to tell me that we have recruited a lesser, greater or equal number of players lacking basic skills, because I doubt that you are in any better position than I am to compare the kicking skills of our list against those of other teams. However, I have known for a long time that Hawthorn has done what we haven't done i.e. only recruited players who can kick a football.

We are one of the wealthiest and best resourced clubs in the AFL. The benchmark for disposal skills as you readily admit is Hawthorn. We should have sought to emulate their recruiting requirements years ago, but we didn't. Perhaps you would now care to tell me why we continued to recruit players who couldn't kick when Hawthorn targeted players, particularly left footers, who could accurately kick a ball? What is the use of having more money than any AFL club if you don't have the wisdom to employ it to best advantage of the club and its supporters?

I will continue to get in the way of your stories because I don't much like them and find it difficult not to tell you so. Feel free to do the same for me, as the feeling between us is obviously of a fairly mutual nature.

 

[JB1975]

Very soon you will be rivaling BJ for my non affection. You mention Hawthorn who are well known to have made disposal skills the lynch pin of their recruiting strategy. Why didn't we? I don't need you to tell me that we have recruited a lesser, greater or equal number of players lacking basic skills, because I doubt that you are in any better position than I am to compare the kicking skills of our list against those of other teams. However, I have known for a long time that Hawthorn has done what we haven't done i.e. only recruited players who can kick a football.

We are one of the wealthiest and best resourced clubs in the AFL. The benchmark for disposal skills as you readily admit is Hawthorn. We should have sought to emulate their recruiting requirements years ago, but we didn't. Perhaps you would now care to tell me why we continued to recruit players who couldn't kick when Hawthorn targeted players, particularly left footers, who could accurately kick a ball? What is the use of having more money than any AFL club if you don't have the wisdom to employ it to best advantage of the club and its supporters?

Let me tiptoe my response, for fear of losing my place in your affections. I had suspected that you felt nothing (good) for me, but if you feel something more for me than you do for BJ, then let me not be banished from thy heart.

The whole premise of your post suggests that we've recruited players who can't hit targets by foot. For some players this is unfortunately correct, but overall the premise of your post is wrong. We have some excellent kicks at our club: Pendlebury (except when he shoots for goal), Sidebottom, Crisp, Oxley, Fasolo (not lately, but generally), Elliott (see Fasolo), Reid, Broomhead, Moore, De Goey, Scharenberg etc. These are players who kick well, and they're not alone. And while Hawthorn are certainly the benchmark, don't you see that even they have players who sometimes struggle to hit targets? From Frawley to Suckling, they have a number of players who are far from 'elite' by foot. Even Gunston seems to be having some difficulty in kicking for goal, or at least he considerably more unreliable than he once was.

My point is that the apparent kicking skills of a list can't be viewed in isolation from other factors: game plan, the youth/inexperience of players which undercuts their ability to kick under pressure (or to deal with fatigue at AFL level) etc. We could always use more elite talent (like Treloar), but I don't accept the notion that a skills deficit can explain our current woes.

My apologies for the smarmy tone at the start of this post. Some of us have been a bit snippy in here of late, and I'm not looking to deliberately antagonise people.

 

[Apex36]

No we didn't. They were long gone before our pick. Only short people and questionable talls were available by our pick 18.

Check your sarcasm detector.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I agree with most of your post but it is hard to criticise supporters who have had their expectations raised at the start of the year by Pert and Ed.

10 straight kicks this season sprinkled judiciously between the games against Richmond, Freo, Hawthorn, Port and Swans ...

... we'd be on 14 wins and 6 losses ...

... Guaranteed of finals, knocking on the door of the top 4; and nobody would be disputing Ed / Perty's preseason claim that we could snatch a lucky premiership.

Yeah, yeah, I know the Aunty / Balls / Uncle thing ... My point is that it's a very fine and fickle line between glory and capitulation. And as Old Spice is quite reasonably arguing, six debutants is a mitigating reason to find ourselves on the wrong side of that line.

How many debutants did we have in our 2010 Premiership year? Only one - Jarryd Blair - who had been on our rookie list for a couple of seasons.

 

[Hardas]

No not a tall
But he's
The Big Show!

No, no, ... it's THE BIG SHOW!!!

 

[jmac70]

10 straight kicks this season sprinkled judiciously between the games against Richmond, Freo, Hawthorn, Port and Swans ...

... we'd be on 14 wins and 6 losses ...

... Guaranteed of finals, knocking on the door of the top 4; and nobody would be disputing Ed / Perty's preseason claim that we could snatch a lucky premiership.

Yeah, yeah, I know the Aunty / Balls / Uncle thing ... My point is that it's a very fine and fickle line between glory and capitulation. And as Old Spice is quite reasonably arguing, six debutants is a mitigating reason to find ourselves on the wrong side of that line.

How many debutants did we have in our 2010 Premiership year? Only one - Jarryd Blair - who had been on our rookie list for a couple of seasons.

Sorry mate but I just don't accept that. I believe we are where we deserve to be and that for the club to improve we must accept that and get angry about it. I still support Buckley as coach but it is now linked to a significant rise in ladder position next season.