Round 19…Hmm, there are some real topsy-turvy games this week. There’s a few standout favourites, and a couple of games that could go either way. A couple of interesting historical stats are going against some of the favourites though. Could be an interesting round.

Let’s get straight into our tips….

Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs (Simmonds Stadium)

The Bulldogs are both emotionally and physically wounded, but with Jake Stringer likely to come back this week, their forward target will need to fire up to beat the Cats at home. Luke Dahlhaus and Tom Liberatore are two likely returns for the Dogs, giving them a much-needed mid-field boost. However, the Cats restricted Adelaide, the highest scoring team in the competition, to just 55 points last week, and with Tom Hawkins coming off his best game in weeks, and Geelong seemingly switched on, I can’t see the Cats dropping this one. Aside from getting the win, there’s lots to celebrate at The Cattery. It’s Jimmy Bartel’s 300th game, and Corey Enright will become Geelong’s games record-holder with 326 games, passing Ian Nankervis by one game. Here’s a thought…Collingwood should show up and give the boys a round of applause post-game. Geelong 1-39.

Greater Western Sydney vs. Richmond (Manuka Oval)

Richmond was horrendous against Hawthorn last week, and there’s no let up on Saturday afternoon as they travel to Manuka Oval to take on the rampaging Giants. Finals are out of reach for Richmond, and they have been for weeks, but the season still has to be played out and, many of Richmond’s players are playing to save their careers at this point. A much better performance seems likely, but even their best won’t be good enough to take the four points from the Giants. Fun stat: The Giants have never beaten the Tigers. Hmmm, times, they are a changin’ – GWS – 25+

Hawthorn vs. Carlton (Aurora)

With five rounds left to play, Hawthorn is on top of the ladder, two games clear. Carlton has improved beyond measure and they’ve given a few certain favourites a real scare these past couple of weeks. But this is Hawthorn and the Hawks won’t have an ounce of trouble winning here. They’ll make this game all about boosting their percentage. Not that percentage matters if they’re clear of the pack in the win/loss ratio, but it doesn’t hurt to top the percentage up a little, right? Hawthorn 40+

Collingwood vs. West Coast (MCG)

Collingwood and the West Coast Eagles at the MCG. This has to be the hardest game to pick. The Eagles are notorious for playing average footy on the road. Heck, they’ve even been playing average footy at home! Collingwood are so inconsistent, it’s difficult to know what they’ll do, or not do, from week to week. Three weeks ago, I said the big American rookie, Mason Cox, needed a rest. He was playing tired. I meant one week! One week! Not three! Where is he? Cox or not, I’m going with the Eagles, but only because they desperately need this win to climb up the ladder for a chance to clinch a home final. West Coast Eagles – 1-39

Brisbane vs. Port Adelaide (Gabba)

Brisbane is coming off their second win for the season. The hoopla surrounding the win has been nothing short of ridiculous, especially considering Essendon allowed the Lions to play while they pretty much stood there and watched. Not tagging Daniel Rich? Yeah, that makes sense, especially when he’s tearing the game apart. I get it though. A first round draft pick was much more important for Essendon than getting that win. A win for Brisbane was much more important for Leppa’s job security than a first round draft pick. So, the “result” worked out well for both parties. No need for the AFL to investigate. Anyway, Port Adelaide is coming off a winnable loss to the Giants. It was a game Port had to win to keep themselves in finals contention. Now they really have to win, and keep on winning, or 2016 is well and truly cooked. This will be an easier task, and the Power will do it. Port 1-39

North Melbourne vs. St. Kilda (Etihad)

Here we go, the two Etihad specialists, the Roos and the Saints. It’s a toss of the coin game with both teams vying for eighth spot. North currently have it, but St. Kilda are hot on their heels. Given their hard run home, this is North’s only winnable game to give themselves a buffer that will more than likely keep them in eighth spot. It’s also Boomer Harvey’s 427th game. He breaks Michael Tuck’s record this week. There’ll be lots to celebrate and the Roos will get the win. Let’s hope St. Kilda stay on the ground post-game to honour Boomer’s milestone with a round of applause. You know, this game doesn’t clash with the Collingwood vs. West Coast game, so there’s no reason why Collingwood can’t show up to clap Boomer off the ground. North Melbourne – 1-39

Melbourne vs. Gold Coast (MCG)

Melbourne blow hot and cold, and Gold Coast’s injury woes have hurt them. and continue to do so. Look, if this game was played at Metricon, I’d pick the Suns. However, at the MCG, I’ll go with the home team – just! It could go either way. Melbourne 1-39

Fremantle vs. Sydney (Domain)

Pav’s 350th is an almighty moment to celebrate, but I fear it’ll be the only celebration for Fremantle on Sunday. Sydney has too much riding on this game to let it slip. They’ve been far from convincing in recent weeks. They’ve won close games and lost close games. They should get over the line here. However, it has to be said, the Swans haven’t beaten the Dockers in Perth since 2010! On a side note, have I mentioned that Collingwood should fly to Perth to clap Matthew Pavlich off the ground? Sydney 1-39

Adelaide vs. Essendon (Adelaide Oval)

The last game of the round and Adelaide play Essendon at home, the Adelaide Oval fortress. A disappointing loss to the Cats at Simmonds Stadium last week will be festering all week and Essendon will cop the brunt of that loss in this Sunday twilight match. With or without captain, Taylor Walker (he tweaked his ankle last week), and dependent on weather conditions, this game should be the highest margin of the round and most likely the high/low double. Adelaide to win by plenty – 40+

Best Bets

High/Low Double – Adelaide/Essendon @ $14 (Note: I’m still getting over the High/Low Double from Round 18 being – Brisbane (128)/Adelaide (55)! What were those odds?
Highest margin of the round – Adelaide vs. Essendon @ $2.25
Multi #1 – Geelong 1-39/Hawthorn over 15.5/GWS over 15.5/North Melbourne vs. St Kilda either under 39.5/Sydney H2H/Adelaide 40+ = $4.87
Multi Double – GWS (last quarter line -11.5)/Hawthorn (last quarter line -13.5) = $3.61
Best “futures” bet – Hawthorn are currently showing $1.90 to finish as the top Victorian team. Geelong are their closest competitors, next best at $2.65. The Hawks already have a nice break on them though. Hawthorn are as low as $1.30 to take out the “Minor Premiership,” clear leaders over Geelong at $9, then Adelaide, also at $9.  With the likelihood they’ll stay on top of the ladder, $1.90 for the Hawks to be the top Victorian team is a great bet.
*Odds quoted are with Sportsbet as of Thursday, July 28, 2016.