Prediction Top 4 and The Rollercoaster dogs or The Bevo Curse
- Thread starter Optimistic Dog
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We’ll still drop games for the remainder of the season, our current injuries are not great
We're 6th (equal 4th on points). I keep wondering how St Kilda are 5th, they look like they belong there less than we do.
And they play the Dees on Saturday, so one of them has to lose (there have already been too many draws this year for there to be another one, surely).
A win against the pies would be massive for us given what comes in the next 5-6 weeks, but if we're realistic that's a likely loss but the following two weeks at Sydney and against Essendon are the real chances to cement a 4-6 spot.
CarnTheScray
Norm Smith Medallist
We will only make top 4 if we beat all the teams below us, and one of Geelong or Collingwood. If we lose to Collingwood and Geelong, and win the rest (or even lose one extra game) we’ll be 5th or 6th.
Geelong are below us. If we beat all teams below and lose to teams above, we should sit 4th (assuming Melbourne drop a couple). Chances are we lose at least 1 to a team below though.
CarnTheScray
Norm Smith Medallist
I was taking into account Melbourne dropping a game or two vs Brisbane and maybe Adelaide. But we will still need 1 win more than them due to their better percentage.
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Oh my bad. Looked at some point after our game and I thought we were 5th. May have changed with other results.
Good point on Saints, that is shocking.
While the comp is pretty even at the moment, I'd say the quality of teams are pretty down on average it seems.
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- #59
We’ve been massively let off the hook with results over the past month meaning even with our run of 3 losses we didn’t actually lose any/much ground on the ladder.
So the opportunity is well & truly still there, I’m not sure if we’re good enough to take it - I mean we more than can be if we get things right and the last qtr against Freo was a step in the right direction, albeit probably an outlier compared to the previous 18 or so qtrs
But either way the doors still open, and we almost get a free swing at it now. After the pies game we really shouldn’t be losing a game until the last round so we’ll see what happens
So the opportunity is well & truly still there, I’m not sure if we’re good enough to take it - I mean we more than can be if we get things right and the last qtr against Freo was a step in the right direction, albeit probably an outlier compared to the previous 18 or so qtrs
But either way the doors still open, and we almost get a free swing at it now. After the pies game we really shouldn’t be losing a game until the last round so we’ll see what happens
- Oct 11, 2014
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- #60
Yeah, amazing we are still a chance as the heading says top 4 and the rollercoaster dogs. Really lose 3 in a row and making the top 4 is difficult we were home hosed to make in 2021 and lost the last 3 to miss it. However, beat the pies and we are a big chance to make it except for the Bevo top 4 curse.
If we do I hope it is against the Pies not Port or Lions we have not had a home state final since 2016.
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- Oct 11, 2014
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- #62
We are a better chance than mathematically in the race. Ok the dees are the only team in the top 4 we can replace their draw is:
Saints Marvel
Lions MCG
Crows MCG
Tigers MCG
North Tassie
Blues MCG
Hawks MCG
Swans SCG
They have their best forward out and who knows what is going on with Oliver. All their games are winnable but only 2 give me games Roos and probably the hawks but even the hawks are different team with Sicily in
Our Draw
Pies Marvel
Swans SCG
Bombers Marvel
Giants Mars
Tigers Marvel
Hawks Tassie
Eagles Marvel
Cats GMBHA
We only have one give me the Eagles and one no hope the cats who never beat especially down there all the others winnable even the pies.
We are effectively one game behind the dees because unlikely to pick up 21%. So looking at the draw and percentage it is advantage Melbourne currently. It may come down to the last round. We need to be game in front of the dees. I think we both lose the cats down there is no for us and the swans at SCG Buddy's last game is no for the Dees.
_Cerberus_
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- Sep 30, 2022
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My predictor had those two facing in week one of the finals. Imagine having to play the Cats in back to back games? The last game could potentially be a home final decider. Unless the AFL forces it to be at the G.
Unless the saints upset the Dees you can just about pack this thread up
- Aug 15, 2014
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Demons are still very vulnerable. Oliver out for another month and their current forward line is bottom 4 quality.
That result won’t even matter. Our system isn’t good enough to win enough games for top four, and even if it was we’d get our asses handed to us by the minor premiers in week one.
This team - as currently constructed, selected and coached (particularly this last one) - is patently inadequate to contend at the pointy end of the season.
- Oct 11, 2014
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Room for improvement but I thought that performance last night beats all but the very best. We do not play anyone above us going into this round and if we play like we did last night we will all of them and finish 16 wins and still a top 4 chance.
- Sep 14, 2015
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I just had a go at the ladder predictor
Had us finishing 5th.
Perhaps a little optimistic, giving us wins for all games other than Geelong in the last round.
The finals run was spooky.
If games fall as I picked, we'd meet Essendon W1, then Brisbane in Brisbane W2, then Port in Port for the Prelim.
Sound familiar?
Had us finishing 5th.
Perhaps a little optimistic, giving us wins for all games other than Geelong in the last round.
The finals run was spooky.
If games fall as I picked, we'd meet Essendon W1, then Brisbane in Brisbane W2, then Port in Port for the Prelim.
Sound familiar?
These games against Syd (Away), Ess (Home), Giants (Home) are challenging given how the Bombers and Giants are currently playing. And we’re underdogs this week against Sydney.
_Cerberus_
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Win all three, top four is still a chance. Lose one, we will just hold onto a spot in the eight. Lose two, we are in trouble. Especially if one of them is to Essendon. They will be tough, but if we are a genuine team, then we should win them all, no excuses from here on.
Libbaaaa
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The run may be soft in some eyes but like others have said, the next month is basically must win every week. If we take care of business the next 3 weeks it'll go a long way to securing a finals spot. The Bomber/Giants have super tough tasks this week as well this week, lets beat the Swans and really put the pressure on them.
_Mike_
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We’re not beating Geelong at GMHBA stadium so that leaves having to win as many as possible from the last 7 games. Even the game against Sydney up there is no guarantee.
I say strike a line through top 4 this season and hope they can salvage a home elimination final in week 1
I say strike a line through top 4 this season and hope they can salvage a home elimination final in week 1
- Jan 19, 2014
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What do you mean by home? Marvel or the G. Does it matter? If I had a choice, I'd play at the G.
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