AFL round 21
- Thread starter the_big_sav
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Walters hasn't played all season. Mayne is out of form, Pavlich isn't fit and Zac isnt a forward.
What I'm saying is they're both crap forward lines (coming into this match) and this will not be where the game is won.
With McPharlin out Freos defence gets hit pretty hard.
Hawks just keep getting the job done, and Freo are not Freo right now... Ive never seen them this inconsistent...
tibor
Debutant
- May 13, 2014
- 77
- 19
- AFL Club
- GWS
Adding
Syd/Stk O175.5
Gc/Port O174.5
Ess/WCE U179.5
Coll/Bris U170.5
Adel/Rich O179.5
North/WB U185.5
Melb/GWS U168.5
Frem/Haw No Play
Also loaded up on GWS +11.5. Melbourne are a rabble, the giants will probably win but will take the line to be safe.
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Longmire has come out and said we won't be resting any players.
Some early bets for the week:
2U - Port -15.5 @ 1.92 (Luxbet)
Port are a top 6 team this year and whilst they've had a bit of a slump, they should come out and beat the Suns fairly well. Suns were pretty dismal against us, looking tired and a few injuries. Line is already out to 18.5 at some other agencies.
1U - Sydney -60.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)
Think the Swans will smash them by a lot. Home ground advantage and the chance to basically secure themselves the top spot going into finals. If they don't rest anyone, this could be ugly.
1.5U - Carlton vs Geelong Over 188.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)
Seems a bit low for me. These 2 average 203 over the last 5 games at Etihad against each other, and both look fairly likely to score high again.
Honestly I'm tempted to go after Carlton at the line and SU as well. Geelong will be sore after the game with Fremantle and we seemed to coast after HT. Think the game will be close. Not sure if this is some bias kicking in though.
2U - Port -15.5 @ 1.92 (Luxbet)
Port are a top 6 team this year and whilst they've had a bit of a slump, they should come out and beat the Suns fairly well. Suns were pretty dismal against us, looking tired and a few injuries. Line is already out to 18.5 at some other agencies.
1U - Sydney -60.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)
Think the Swans will smash them by a lot. Home ground advantage and the chance to basically secure themselves the top spot going into finals. If they don't rest anyone, this could be ugly.
1.5U - Carlton vs Geelong Over 188.5 @ 1.91 (Bet 365)
Seems a bit low for me. These 2 average 203 over the last 5 games at Etihad against each other, and both look fairly likely to score high again.
Honestly I'm tempted to go after Carlton at the line and SU as well. Geelong will be sore after the game with Fremantle and we seemed to coast after HT. Think the game will be close. Not sure if this is some bias kicking in though.
Jay-Z
North's Enforcer
Agree with most on here. My plays so far:
1U Port -17.5 @ 1.91
2U Syd -61.5 @ 1.91
2U Carl/Gee O188.5 @ 1.91
2U Carl +20.5 @ 1.91
1U Carl SU @ 3.35
1U Port -17.5 @ 1.91
2U Syd -61.5 @ 1.91
2U Carl/Gee O188.5 @ 1.91
2U Carl +20.5 @ 1.91
1U Carl SU @ 3.35
Jay-Z
North's Enforcer
Have gone very similar:
Carl/Gee O188.5 (mentioned above)
Syd/Stk No play (my model actually said unders but since you're going overs and Sydney are likely to smash them, I'm leaving it alone)
Gc/Port O176.5
Ess/WCE U179.5
Coll/Bris U170.5
Adel/Rich O179.5
North/WB U185.5
Melb/GWS U168.5
Frem/Haw No Play
Some early bets:
2u Carton +24.5 $ $1.71 (missed out on the early line)
1u Hawks @ $2.08
1u Port Win / Collingwood >15.5 / North Win @ $2.32
Think the Swans could break 100 against the Saints, so 0.25u Sudney 100 or more @ $6.50
2u Carton +24.5 $ $1.71 (missed out on the early line)
1u Hawks @ $2.08
1u Port Win / Collingwood >15.5 / North Win @ $2.32
Think the Swans could break 100 against the Saints, so 0.25u Sudney 100 or more @ $6.50
tibor
Debutant
- May 13, 2014
- 77
- 19
- AFL Club
- GWS
The Sydney game is an interesting one. If you compare midfields it's quite one sided. Sydney will take it out the middle far more often than St Kilda, giving the likes of tippett, franklin and mcglynn plenty of it. The St Kilda D is rubbish and will leak goals to these key forwards. You'd expect Sydney to score on the higher side of their average, upwards of about 120-130. Five goals a quarter from those three alone is quite reasonable. That leaves the saints to get about 55-60 (they're a woeful team but they're perfectly capable of getting this). They'll struggle, but I think once the swans are up by 10+ goals they'll relax a bit and let them get a late few. This is all relying on a full strength sydney side btw.
As an aside I have just traded roo out of my fantasy team, so he will kick a bag now.
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Saints at $1.65 with TAB for most losses.
Yes thanks.
Yes thanks.
Jay-Z
North's Enforcer
Interesting analysis and I can't disagree with much there. Based on this, do you think the Sportsbet special of Franklin and Tippett kicking more goals than St Kilda @ $4.5 is value?
tibor
Debutant
- May 13, 2014
- 77
- 19
- AFL Club
- GWS
Franklin will kick a few, but Tippett is so up and down you wouldn't know what he's going to do. If you assume St Kilda will kick their 50-60, made up of about 8-9 goals. Generously give buddy 5 (realistic). Can Tippett kick 3-4? Maybe. 4.50 is nice though. You never know, Franklin might go nuts against average D and get it himself. I might put a small amount on now that you've mentioned it.
Hawthorn H2H
Collingwood H2H
Melbourne + GWS under 167.5
Sydney 40 +
$5.66 and put $20
Collingwood H2H
Melbourne + GWS under 167.5
Sydney 40 +
$5.66 and put $20
balmainforever
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Not scared of a dead heat????
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It's basically a wooden spoon market, so no dead heat.
so on this topic least wins, but instead using SPORTSBETS "least wins" - if both St.K & GWS draw for least wins at end of season, that means your total winnings for either St.K or GWS get divided by 2 correct?? The odds are:
St.K at $1.45 and
GWS at $4.00 , so if they drew for least wins, and for example u staked 3units on GWS, you would still win 6units for the dead heat right?
trying to clarify this so i know if i can go wrong by putting money on GWS? or is the betting infact for least points AND least percentage? (ie position 18th).
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,791
- 8,392
- AFL Club
- Essendon
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- Port Adelaide
I might be having a quiet one this weekend. Not a whole lot I like. Going to keep away from TMLs.
Not a lot I like for player exotics this week.
I really like Carlton +22.5 but have truly missed that line now.
Not a lot I like for player exotics this week.
I really like Carlton +22.5 but have truly missed that line now.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,791
- 8,392
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
What do people think of the GWS vs Melb game. I just cant see Melb kicking a score. Whereas GWS can.
