AFL round 21

[Keystone agony]

Guys i have a strong feeling Harry Taylor may well play forward tonight. Even though he dominated against the dockers down back. Why?

1) Carlton only have 2 tall forward which will be handled by Lonergan and Rivers
2) Its well known that Geelong just arent kicking scores and need to find another avenue to goal
3) Hes been named at CHF whereas in past weeks was named as CHB (I know team sheets sometimes can mean little).
4) To stretch the Carlton defense.

BET365 are offering for 2 goals 8.50 and for 3 goals 41.00

I have placed 1 unit on the aforementioned and .5U on the latter.

Geelong do have Blicavs, Kersten and Hawkins as tall forwards. So after a likely subbing to either Blicavs, Mcintosh or Kersten he might go forward late with 1.5 qtrs to go.

Just something i found interesting. Dont go crazy. But it is certainly a possibility.

 

[yamahamoto]

Good find

 

[Jay-Z]

BET365 are offering for 2 goals 8.50 and for 3 goals 41.00

DAMN! Down to $4 and $13 now

I'm guessing Sportsbet are also thinking along the same lines as you. They have left him out of all the goal scorer markets and not even included a "any other player" option for Geelong

 

[Jay-Z]

0.25U @ $61 on Sydney to be highest scoring team of the week + Melbourne the lowest (High/Low Double)

 

[Keystone agony]

DAMN! Down to $4 and $13 now

I'm guessing Sportsbet are also thinking along the same lines as you. They have left him out of all the goal scorer markets and not even included a "any other player" option for Geelong

Ha someone on here got on big or sportsbet read this thread. I thought i was getting on fairly large but failed to move the market from what i saw.

Also another thing is top teams do like to try different things late in the season when they believe they have wrapped up a top 4 position and are playing what they see as weaker opposition. They did it a bit late last year. Just in case Hawkins goes down they need to see what he can do up front if it comes to that in big finals.

 

[Keystone agony]

Just a few more DT/Exotics

1U Griffen over S.Gibson DT @2.00 (B365)
Griffen without a tag is a really good scorer. Whilst he has been in very solid form lately even with Hocking and Weller hanging off him. Gibson has avg just 82 in his last 4 games. Value.

1U Pendlebury over Sidebottom DT @2.00 (B365)
Who knows how much Sidey and Pendles could score at the MCG against Brisbane this week. Brisbane dont tag. Robertson their slight tagger got dropped, Beams replaces him who may do a job somewhere but Brisbane shoudl really just let their players play at this time of year. Pendlebury notoriously over the past many years been the far superior DT scorer and IIRC this year he still is avg wise i think (dont quote me).

4U Pendlebury >104.5 DT @1.87 (B365)
I was looking to take the 107.5 at lux but wait for funds to go into the account. Mids kill Brisbane, at the MCG a high scoreing ground. Brisbane easiest team to score against. May not even get the main tag with Beams/Sidey going so well last week, Brisbane dont really tag anyway. His line is usually 110-112. Has only gone under 7/19 games this year. Almost has been tagged in all of them.

 

[Anzac16]

4U Pendlebury >104.5 DT @1.87 (B365)

Nice find. Tailing this with just the 1U though. Should beat it, but only covering it 1/4 in the last 4 will keep me from going big.

 

[Jay-Z]

Just a few more DT/Exotics

1U Griffen over S.Gibson DT @2.00 (B365)
Griffen without a tag is a really good scorer. Whilst he has been in very solid form lately even with Hocking and Weller hanging off him. Gibson has avg just 82 in his last 4 games. Value.

1U Pendlebury over Sidebottom DT @2.00 (B365)
Who knows how much Sidey and Pendles could score at the MCG against Brisbane this week. Brisbane dont tag. Robertson their slight tagger got dropped, Beams replaces him who may do a job somewhere but Brisbane shoudl really just let their players play at this time of year. Pendlebury notoriously over the past many years been the far superior DT scorer and IIRC this year he still is avg wise i think (dont quote me).

4U Pendlebury >104.5 DT @1.87 (B365)
I was looking to take the 107.5 at lux but wait for funds to go into the account. Mids kill Brisbane, at the MCG a high scoreing ground. Brisbane easiest team to score against. May not even get the main tag with Beams/Sidey going so well last week, Brisbane dont really tag anyway. His line is usually 110-112. Has only gone under 7/19 games this year. Almost has been tagged in all of them.

I like these and unlike your earlier Lux bets, I actually have a B365 account so i can follow

 

[Keystone agony]

I like these and unlike your earlier Lux bets, I actually have a B365 account so i can follow

Which ones from lux do you unlike?

 

[Jay-Z]

Which ones from lux do you unlike?

no i'm saying i liked a few of the lux ones but don't have an account

 

[Zealbee]

Just a few more DT/Exotics

4U Pendlebury >104.5 DT @1.87 (B365)
I was looking to take the 107.5 at lux but wait for funds to go into the account. Mids kill Brisbane, at the MCG a high scoreing ground. Brisbane easiest team to score against. May not even get the main tag with Beams/Sidey going so well last week, Brisbane dont really tag anyway. His line is usually 110-112. Has only gone under 7/19 games this year. Almost has been tagged in all of them.

Brisbane definitely don't tag.

 

[smiddaz123]

What do people think about Mitch Duncan's line of 97.5 on bet365?

He has generally cleared this line before, and with Johnson/Bartel out he will surely take a bit more responsibility, but avoid the tag behind Selwood. Liking the overs here.

 

[Keystone agony]

What do people think about Mitch Duncan's line of 97.5 on bet365?

He has generally cleared this line before, and with Johnson/Bartel out he will surely take a bit more responsibility, but avoid the tag behind Selwood. Liking the overs here.

Yeh really like your thinking there mate.

Has gone unders 10/19 times this year. However only twice in his last 8 with all the others being 100+. Carlton can restrict scoring to a degree, which maybe keeps me away or a small play.

I dont mind it.

 

[TI KING]

Taking Blues at the line early, they always come close with Geelong and with their strength over the last few weeks I think 22.5+ is money. Geelong had a hard slog last week against Freo and a 6 day turn around vs the Blues 7 I can see this being close.

2U Carlton 22.5+ @ 1.91

Also adding 3U Gibbs 25 or more disposals @ $1.75

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I just rewatched the Carlton v GC game and Carlton were horrendous. Taking Geelong H2H

 

[yamahamoto]

I just rewatched the Carlton v GC game and Carlton were horrendous. Taking Geelong H2H

What does it say about GC?

 

[Sketi]

I just rewatched the Carlton v GC game and Carlton were horrendous. Taking Geelong H2H

Geelong 1-39 I think is a strong possibility however I think I'm going to have night night off..

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

What does it say about GC?

Theyre still young and are wearing out towards the end of the season. It looked like they were running with very haevy legs

 

[I Lost My Keays]

$15 on Carlton

Reason Being :
Carlton is in decent form at the moment. Geelong has been lucky recently with the win over Freo. SJ , Bartel and Murdoch is out for the Cats.

 

[stewie griffen]

Cats 1-39 or ht/ft... cant decide

Edit - Cats half full it is

 

[sneak]

$5 on carl +14.5/over 193.5, stk +63.5,gcs +19.5,wb +21.5,haw +6.5, adel 1-39,wce 1-39, bris +37.5 ,gws 1-39 @2154.55

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

$5 on carl +14.5/over 193.5, stk +63.5,gcs +19.5,wb +21.5,haw +6.5, adel 1-39,wce 1-39, bris +37.5 ,gws 1-39 @2154.55

Shouldve gone to charity

 

[Keystone agony]

Dont mind that multi

 

[leevone]

Late post but got Geelong 1-39

 

[BROOMY]

Sportsbet is paying $3.50 for Fyfe to have 30+ possesions for Sunday. Max $40. For people who might be interested.