2015 - AFL Round 17

[MattyMand]

I would be covering the 60- line, not highest score, Very unpredicatable, any of the games this week could be high scoring

 

[Whirlpool]

Tom Waterhouse and Centrebet special:

Hawks to win by 60+ @ $3
max bet $20

Seems like good value considering the line is -66.5 @ $1.91

 

[MattyMand]

Are Gold Coast at the line good value?
Can see Ablett tearing it apart again, plus Adelaide coming off the showdown

 

[free at last]

Are Gold Coast at the line good value?
Can see Ablett tearing it apart again, plus Adelaide coming off the showdown

I like the look line of the Suns too.
There is a strong winter front approaching Adelaide during Saturday,wet and windy weather is looking likely.

Suns at the line and maybe crows 1-39 margin?

 

[csnody]

SB have a promo on (just received through text), Hawks to score higher in any quarter than the Blues do at full time... paying $7

 

[treefingers]

Ladbrokes offering $2 for Hawthorn to win, max bet $20

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Haven't had a bet on the Ladbrokes FF fav for just over a month now, I've noticed an up trend in favs winning since I've stopped using the promo (5 for 5 in fact, last time i used the promo was for a loss on Port vs Geel )

Im back aboard tonight fellas, buckle up, Carlton to win.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Adding Ryder to have 4 or more tackles @$4- 0.5U

 

[Tommyp1]

Sportsbet have a first goal in eagles vs swans game offer.
If your player doesn't kick first goal but kicks a goal in first quarter, money back.
Kennedy $7 get on!

Adam goodes- $15 get on it

 

[Tommyp1]

SB have a promo on (just received through text), Hawks to score higher in any quarter than the Blues do at full time... paying $7

Got this msg aswell, not a bad bet. I chucked $30 on it

 

[happy punter]

Hawks 1-39 @ 4.35 (1 unit)

 

[Hawkthorn33]

G'day guys haven't posted for years but I have a pretty good value bet for you here and stats to back it up.

Take hawks to score under 17.5 behinds for the match paying 1.72 at William Hill

Hawks have only gone over this total twice this year and that was in round 1 vs Geelong (21 behinds) and round 13 vs Essendon (18 behinds)

Carlton have only allowed a team to score over 17.5 behinds only once this season and that was in round 7 vs GWS (21 behinds)

Hawks last 6 games for this season have had 8,13,11,18,12 & 12 behinds scored

Blues last 6 games have allowed 17,11,10,15,10,15 behinds to be scored against

Whilst their last 6 games vs the blues have seen 10,12,12,18,14,12 behinds scored

Factor in the hawks have been in pretty good and deadly goal kicking form lately and the elements wont play a factor in this game, being played in the dome, this should be a very good value bet in my opinion.

Good luck

 

[demon_fanatic]

what about dees/stk under 158... given the forecast... even in fine weather they may struggle to go 160-170 given the dees how they play sometimes... Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers in the southeast suburbs, high (70%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 600 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Possible hail. Winds northwesterly 35 to 45 km/h turning westerly in the morning.

game starts 3:20.. if that storm hits or rain gets in to the game early it will go under easy

 

[Alesana]

X$25 on Melb 1-39X/North✓ @3.35
X$25 on Freo✓/North✓/Syd 1-39X @10.99
✓$25 free bet on Saints 1-39✓/North✓ @3.22
✓$25 free bet on Geel 1-39✓/Port✓/Freo 1-39✓ @9.26
X$25 free bet on GWS 1-39X/Rich 1-39X/Saints 1-39✓ @13.23
X$25 free bet on Geel✓/Rich 1-39X/Port✓/Dogs 1-39✓ @13.51
✓$25 free bet on Haw 40+✓/Adel✓/North✓/Saints✓/WCE✓ @4.97

Surely I'll win something here

 

[TyroneVickery29]

Most possessions group 2 on SB
Bell $5.50
Yarran $6.00
Cripps $6.00
Tuohy $10.00
Birchall $3.00
Gibson $6.50
Suckling $8.00
Brad Hill $8.00

Thoughts? I reckon Hill and Cripps are great odds

 

[Hawkthorn33]

I would say it is out of cripps, birchall or gibson to get most tbh

 

[banana_bus]

I would say it is out of cripps, birchall or gibson to get most tbh

Hill is ahead of those 3.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Roughead 0-1 goals at Tab @$5- 1U

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Geelong
North
Collingwood
Sydney

50 @ 15

 

[Jugada]

Hill is ahead of those 3.

Based on the odds or likelihood of winning?

 

[Keystone agony]

Roughead 0-1 goals at Tab @$5- 1U

Dont see that happening however never know.

Is paying 1.87 for -3 goals at lux. Needs to kick 4 to lose

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Geelong highest scoring team - $30 @ 26

 

[HTPunter]

Hill is ahead of those 3.

Why?

Birchall averages 3 more disposals a game than Hill and has gone over 25 5 times, while Hill has only gone over it twice.
In rounds they've both played this year:
Birchall 5
Hill 3
Tie 1

Cripps and Gibson average only a disposal more than Hill, but still average more.

Can't personally see why you'd take the risk on this market, but certainly can't see how Hill is ahea

 

[Jugada]

Couple of small bets

0.25U Lewis 40+ touches @ 27
0.25U Hodge 40+ touches @ 25
0.25U Carlton @ 26
0.25U Rioli 4+ goals @ 4.30

 

[Keystone agony]

$20 Hawks SU @2.00
$20 Hawks vs Blues highest scoring match of round @3.00

Was thinking about Hodge <115.5 DT and Kreuzer over Docherty @1.90 DT but gone against it

Think Hodge may be eased/tagged. High line regardless.

Think docherty will have his hands full with a rioli, puopolo and be alot less free and attacking.

Kreuzer sole ruck cant see him going below 80 really although up against 2 decent ruck tandem