Prediction Pre-season is nearly done. When everyone finishes training the house down, who do you see playing the house down and contending in 2023?

[fishardansin]

OP is an anti-Collingwood troll

I'm not trolling. I like Collingwood as a club. I like the way that Collingwood played last year, but it is a genuine opinion that I think they overachieved. As Corn Cobbers said, sleep on them at your peril because their roll-the-dice game plan helped them slice through sides as they tired last year. I don't think anyone will be sleeping on them. I also think Collingwood 2022 will have the biggest impact on every team's tactics in 2023. All sides will attempt to roll the dice going forward more often AND all sides will have plans to defend against it.

Teams that I have seen win the premiership by overachieving are Essendon 93, Hawthorn 08 and Doggies in 16. They couldn't sustain it and everyone adapted to their game plan the following year.

I think that percentage is a good indicator of how you expect a team to perform going forward. Yes on the day it is merely winning and losing and the Pies did fall over the line regularly last year, good on them. However, there is more information on how they will go this year in what they were able to do consistently across all games last year, and that was pretty much break-even. As such, I expect them to finish between 7th and 10th.

That you're so sensitive and think this is trolling says more about your faith in your opinion than anything else. This is a prediction that is based on a chaotic system that also includes human behaviour. I accept that Collingwood falling over the line enough times and just falling short in a prelim is the basis for a good-faith argument that they'll be successful again this year. You should also accept that the basis of my opinions are fair and logical.

Why you may see it as trolling is how annoyed I am/was at Collingwood's run of close wins once again highlighting how little humans understand the nature of probability.

 

[jdstorm]

For me I think there’s a clear top 5 and bottom 4. Then the middle 9 fighting for the right to lose in the first round.

Top 5 Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Freo, Collingwood

Bottom 4: Hawks, Eagles, GWS, North.

 

[Wargreymon90]

For me I think there’s a clear top 5 and bottom 4. Then the middle 9 fighting for the right to lose in the first round.

Top 5 Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Freo, Collingwood

Bottom 4: Hawks, Eagles, GWS, North.

Agree. Although Freo and Collingwood are part of the middle group imo.

I’m thinking Melbourne will be back to their best.

 

[LifeSpan-Void]

Don’t forget the free pubs and property deals

And a Cotton-On Ambassador role for the missus to the tune of six figures WINK

 

[Milux]

I've been worried about Carlton's depth in recent years, and now with Walsh, Williams and Philp missing all or parts of 2023 I genuinely believe they could miss finals again.

Don't see a real reason why Geelong won't go back to back at this stage unless Richmond or Melbourne really reload.

Western Bulldogs are the hardest to get a gauge on.

Brisbane have the most to lose because anything less than a Grand Final appearance will likely be viewed as a wasted opportunity.

I agree with the Carlton and Brisbane assessment. I can see Carlton missing.

Anything less then a GF appearance for us is an absolute fail.

 

[Flayin_Rayn17]

For me I think there’s a clear top 5 and bottom 4. Then the middle 9 fighting for the right to lose in the first round.

Top 5 Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Freo, Collingwood

Bottom 4: Hawks, Eagles, GWS, North.

Absolutely could be a cope, but I think West Coast are a solid chance to rise this year. Not finals, but i think we will finish in the 10-14 range. Boys are looking fit and a lot of young talent coming in. I think we will fall again in 2024 as some of the oldies retire, before beginning to challenge for finals 2026-7


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[fishardansin]

Absolutely could be a cope, but I think West Coast are a solid chance to rise this year. Not finals, but i think we will finish in the 10-14 range. Boys are looking fit and a lot of young talent coming in. I think we will fall again in 2024 as some of the oldies retire, before beginning to challenge for finals 2026-7


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

The classic dead cat bounce!!

Which those old guys have earned by winning a flag in 2019 or 18 ... early onset dementia.

 

[jdstorm]

Agree. Although Freo and Collingwood are part of the middle group imo.

I’m thinking Melbourne will be back to their best.

For me I think Collingwood’s percentage last year was misleading. Think they were a good but inexperienced team that struggled to play slow. Ripped any team apart when they wanted to and now added a tall forward and Tom Mitchell. That’s quite the upgrade.

Freo just got Luke Jackson. Have a good defense and high end talent across every line.

Not sure who you’d have top 5 over them? Sydney and Richmond? Dogs?

Absolutely could be a cope, but I think West Coast are a solid chance to rise this year. Not finals, but i think we will finish in the 10-14 range. Boys are looking fit and a lot of young talent coming in. I think we will fall again in 2024 as some of the oldies retire, before beginning to challenge for finals 2026-7


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

14th is just another way of saying 5th worse. Not really sure how to rate West Coast since last year was just a year from hell. But just seems like your young guys are too young and old guys are too old.

Just see a lot more hope at the middle 9 teams (Syd,Port,Dogs,Tigers,suns,Crows, Dons) Carlton and Saints will be bad but probably not awful.

 

[Flayin_Rayn17]

For me I think Collingwood’s percentage last year was misleading. Think they were a good but inexperienced team that struggled to play slow. Ripped any team apart when they wanted to and now added a tall forward and Tom Mitchell. That’s quite the upgrade.

Freo just got Luke Jackson. Have a good defense and high end talent across every line.

Not sure who you’d have top 5 over them? Sydney and Richmond? Dogs?


14th is just another way of saying 5th worse. Not really sure how to rate West Coast since last year was just a year from hell. But just seems like your young guys are too young and old guys are too old.

Just see a lot more hope at the middle 9 teams (Syd,Port,Dogs,Tigers,suns,Crows, Dons) Carlton and Saints will be bad but probably not awful.

I think 2022 was a premature fall down the ladder due to a number of factors (As you mentioned). I think 2023 will be more on the course we've been on, and reflective of where we should have finished in 2022. (2020-5th, 2020-9th, with 2022 an aberration and 2023 10th-14th imo), and without the circumstances around it we would have gone down more slowly with our lists natural bottom in 2024, before our young guys beginning to find their feet in 2025 and us rising up the ladder 2026 or 2027. Because of how bad our 2022 season was I think this year will look like a rise, but is actually more of a return to our natural decline and bottoming out.

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

According to SEN, every single club club has several players training the house down that will propel them in to top 4 contention and contending in 2023....

 

[Jibroni]

Surprised "other" is leading the vote count at present.

Fremantle aside I cant see anyone getting past the other teams mentioned.

 

[jdstorm]

Surprised "other" is leading the vote count at present.

Fremantle aside I cant see anyone getting past the other teams mentioned.

Collingwood is the obvious missing candidate

 

[Joao]

According to SEN, every single club club has several players training the house down that will propel them in to top 4 contention and contending in 2023....

Genius by them. Raise every supporters hopes meaning many phone calls to Gary and Tim to vent.

 

[Gone Critical]

For me I think Collingwood’s percentage last year was misleading. Think they were a good but inexperienced team that struggled to play slow. Ripped any team apart when they wanted to and now added a tall forward and Tom Mitchell. That’s quite the upgrade.

.

Pies picked up a lot of kids recent years but they arent playng much in the 22. McRae went the path of experience best 22 in 2022 and is going to double down on this with Mitchell and McStay added.

As an example our youngest and least experienced 22 in 2022 was still older and more experienced than any 22 Carlton put on the park last year.

 

[jdstorm]

Pies picked up a lot of kids recent years but they arent playng much in the 22. McRae went the path of experience best 22 in 2022 and is going to double down on this with Mitchell and McStay added.

As an example our youngest and least experienced 22 in 2022 was still older and more experienced than any 22 Carlton put on the park last year.

I watch a lot of Collingwood games as my partner is a pies member. Think I went to 5-6 games. When I think of your list I look at a team that lacked composure.
Guess I assumed that was due to them being young minus a few key older players like Pendlebury and Sidebottom ect.

Daicos and Quaynor being key ball users off half back and ginnivan/Mccreary/Lipinski/Johnson forming a big part of your forward line is probably why.

 

[twhowler]

Pies picked up a lot of kids recent years but they arent playng much in the 22. McRae went the path of experience best 22 in 2022 and is going to double down on this with Mitchell and McStay added.

As an example our youngest and least experienced 22 in 2022 was still older and more experienced than any 22 Carlton put on the park last year.

It was a really interesting approach from Fly, and clearly worked. A good reason why the old adage of 'X isn't in our next flag side let's not play him' is so mindless.

But it will be tough to manage it again I think. Those inclusions should help, although I am less convinced about Mitchell. Tougher draw.

Whilst you are experienced you don't have too many players coming to the end that are crucial. Pendles and Howe mainly?

I can't see the Pies falling badly as they seem to be so bouyant under McRae but will be hard to go top 4 again.

 

[citizen-erased]

Odd having the blues there and not Fremantle.

Freo keep building a side that's got potential for a dynasty when it clicks.
Their best comes from kids yet to peak (Brayshaw, Serong, Young, Darcy, Chapman), their mid-agers are getting noticed (Ryan and Cox particularly), and they've added some fairly strong pieces in Jaeger, Clark and Jackson.

Drafting has been sensational too, with Erasmus, Johnson, Amiss, O'Driscoll and Frederick

Blues have the spine and the midfield, but the depth is a worry with the injuries the spine has sustained and Cripps/Walsh have suffered. Will take a bit of luck on that front for them to make top 4.

 

[Dazb86]

Poll is out of whack. cannot see Footscray*, the Blues or Tigers making the 8. I do see Freo and Port being serious contenders.

Funnily enough I could see us top 4 this year without too much luck

 

[adammania9]

I'm not trolling. I like Collingwood as a club. I like the way that Collingwood played last year, but it is a genuine opinion that I think they overachieved. As Corn Cobbers said, sleep on them at your peril because their roll-the-dice game plan helped them slice through sides as they tired last year. I don't think anyone will be sleeping on them. I also think Collingwood 2022 will have the biggest impact on every team's tactics in 2023. All sides will attempt to roll the dice going forward more often AND all sides will have plans to defend against it.

Teams that I have seen win the premiership by overachieving are Essendon 93, Hawthorn 08 and Doggies in 16. They couldn't sustain it and everyone adapted to their game plan the following year.

I think that percentage is a good indicator of how you expect a team to perform going forward. Yes on the day it is merely winning and losing and the Pies did fall over the line regularly last year, good on them. However, there is more information on how they will go this year in what they were able to do consistently across all games last year, and that was pretty much break-even. As such, I expect them to finish between 7th and 10th.

That you're so sensitive and think this is trolling says more about your faith in your opinion than anything else. This is a prediction that is based on a chaotic system that also includes human behaviour. I accept that Collingwood falling over the line enough times and just falling short in a prelim is the basis for a good-faith argument that they'll be successful again this year. You should also accept that the basis of my opinions are fair and logical.

Why you may see it as trolling is how annoyed I am/was at Collingwood's run of close wins once again highlighting how little humans understand the nature of probability.

Your omission of Collingwood from the poll and your obsession with claiming we "fell over the line" is blatant trolling. Your posts in other threads regarding the Pies are comically dumb.

The percentage argument has been debunked many times. Sing a different song.

 

[Shai]

So over all the rubbish posted in the offseason, just bring on 2023.

Even practice games would be a bonus.