What have we learnt so far

[bigman]

We are playing a much better brand of football this year and it is good to watch for the most part

We are A poor kicking team for
Goal and it has cost us 2 if not 3
Games

We play well when the game is on our terms but we can still struggle
When the opposition gain momentum

Our young players are improving with Thilthorpe Rachelle Michaelanney Pedlar Soligo rankine Murray leading the way

We really struggle in the stoppage area When we lose it’s this which really goes amiss and 0-12 last qr performance was to be brutal pathetic and unacceptable The lack of connection between ruck and midfield was diabolical and we did did not appear to change things up until very very late

Our reserves played well again and it is time to reward that effort. Hately or bez for Harry. Parnell for Milera - he can play the noble type role he did so well yesterday rest Tex this week and Play Gollant Ned for Murphy who has been down last two weeks

Worrell is an incredibly popular
Member of the side and although lacking touch knows how to play and his running Style suits our game. He must play when he hits form his signature is an absolute priority
We need a bull midfielder but I cannot see anywhere in free agent list or in other sides worth chasing JHF would have been perfect for us. What I did see on Sunday is a very good first qr from Taylor until injured and some really good signs from Dowling when he went into middle. Both boys have footy acumen and Taylors kicking is sublime. He would add to our class to our senior aide but must get fitter and stronger

 

[GreyCrow]

That our game will fall apart In the heat of finals

The challenge for the coaches is to find a way to instill it or trade it in

 

[bigman]

We have sound depth in the twos and a number of players have impressed and improved this year. Hately big improver as has borlase. Ned has become a goal kicker and gollant is looking more dangerous. Newchurch is showing more consistency but not sure he wants it enough or has enough confidence in himself to go to another level again

Dowling has come a long way since start of pre season

Cook and nank on edge of selection and improving as well

 

[Stephen2]

We've learned that Nicks may learn slowly, but he does learn and change.

That this team is growing even within the season.

That we likely won't do well if we get almost any injuries.

 

[TheRankineFile]

The worry is no injuries and we are still only just above average. Other sides have 10 or so and going ok.

 

[WeeBlake]

Never wish an injury on anyone in particular, but some injuries would actually force us to spread our games better across the squad

 

[ABAB]

The worry is no injuries and we are still only just above average. Other sides have 10 or so and going ok.

But just above average (missing out on finals) and on the up trend with depth building is how our list is right now.

 

[jackster83]

We've learnt that Murray will be our FB for the next 8-10 years. One of the most improved players in the league.

Thilthorpe's debut game against the Hawks wasn't a one off. Still a long way to go but he's trending upwards.

We are a much better side with Dawson in the middle, noting that he is heavily reliant on Laird feeding him the ball.

Jones does in fact have a future at this level.

Pedlar can contribute as a forward. Hope to see him start to get a few midfield minutes.

Our forward line has the potential to be the best in the league. Goalkicking accuracy the main thing currently holding us back.

Our centre clearance work remains a disgrace and to add to that, several of our young mids have stagnated or regressed. The sooner VB is moved on, the better.

 

[TheRankineFile]

Never wish an injury on anyone in particular, but some injuries would actually force us to spread our games better across the squad

A month of losses will take care of that ..

 

[PoholkMe10]

We are playing a much better brand of football this year and it is good to watch for the most part

We are A poor kicking team for
Goal and it has cost us 2 if not 3
Games

Statistically this isn't actually the case. Even including the inaccurate first 2 rounds, going into this game we were beating our expected score by ~10% for the season, so had been significantly more accurate than expected. Yesterday was a regression to the mean.

Also, compared to other teams we are taking shots from further out, i.e more difficult shots.
This means that in poorer conditions, like yesterday, we'll likely be less accurate.
High risk high reward strategy, but we of all teams have the personnel to pull it off imo

Here's an interesting, if not prophetic, exchange i stumbled across on twitter on just this a few days before the game.

 

[GreyCrow]

Statistically this isn't actually the case. Even including the inaccurate first 2 rounds, going into this game we were beating our expected score by ~10% for the season, so had been significantly more accurate than expected. Yesterday was a regression to the mean.

Also, compared to other teams we are taking shots from further out, i.e more difficult shots.
This means that in poorer conditions, like yesterday, we'll likely be less accurate.
High risk high reward strategy, but we of all teams have the personnel to pull it off imo

Here's an interesting, if not prophetic, exchange i stumbled across on twitter on just this a few days before the game.

Thanks for the data

arrowman might be interested

Crawling through the fog of time I am trying to recall Neil Craig and his Perrie/Welsh solution in 2003-2007 I think there was some data floating around that we were taking an extra kick from 70-50m to try and get inside the 30m zone

 

[MrBarry]

That our game will fall apart In the heat of finals

The challenge for the coaches is to find a way to instill it or trade it in

Based on all those recent finals games we've been in?

 

[PCORF]

We certainly need to improve our composure.

 

[CrowToon]

Hopefully we have learnt that an extra around the contest trumps a spare in defence.

Hopefully we have learnt that burying our chances is essential early.

Hopefully we have learnt that when we do get the yips we need to get rid of the cute little chippy s**t going inside 50 and just lace out some blokes.

Hopefully we have learnt to look up and give the pass over the top if we have the outnumber.

Hopefully we have learnt that sometimes we want to be the gamewinner but sometimes it's better to pass off. This one can be learnt but only understood with experience.

Hopefully we have learnt that our list isn't complete.

Hopefully we have learnt that dare is the current flavour of the AFL and we should never abandon it to jump at shadows.

Hopefully we have learnt that negative footy doesn't help you to hold on.

 

[John Who]

1. When we kick at a ratio of 1:2 (goals: behinds), we lose. We kick at 2:1, we win.

2. Our scoring shots have improved out of sight, which is a reflection more on our midfield improvement and/or better transitioning from defence.

3. Some perpective in the last month of footy:
1. Solid win against Port
2. Solid win against Freo
3. Excellent win against the Blues
4. Hard fought win against the Hawks (away game in Tassie)
5. Hard fought loss against the Pies, who are likely top 2 this season, where we had more scoring shots and could have buried them by the first half had we kicked straight.

If you were presented with this package of 5 game sequence during the preseason, would you accept?

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Statistically this isn't actually the case. Even including the inaccurate first 2 rounds, going into this game we were beating our expected score by ~10% for the season, so had been significantly more accurate than expected. Yesterday was a regression to the mean.

Also, compared to other teams we are taking shots from further out, i.e more difficult shots.
This means that in poorer conditions, like yesterday, we'll likely be less accurate.
High risk high reward strategy, but we of all teams have the personnel to pull it off imo

Here's an interesting, if not prophetic, exchange i stumbled across on twitter on just this a few days before the game.

Great post, thanks

I had been thinking watching this season (not just our games) that two factors becoming increasingly important are

1) ability to hit 15-20m passes into the F50
2) Ability to kick set shots from 40-55m out

The long kick to the "hot spot" is becoming less effective

A third would be to kick goals from tough angles.

All of them effectively allow you to spread out the area you can score from making it harder to defend

 

[John Who]

Hopefully we have learnt that an extra around the contest trumps a spare in defence.

Hopefully we have learnt that burying our chances is essential early.

Hopefully we have learnt that when we do get the yips we need to get rid of the cute little chippy s**t going inside 50 and just lace out some blokes.

Hopefully we have learnt to look up and give the pass over the top if we have the outnumber.

Hopefully we have learnt that sometimes we want to be the gamewinner but sometimes it's better to pass off. This one can be learnt but only understood with experience.

Hopefully we have learnt that our list isn't complete.

Hopefully we have learnt that dare is the current flavour of the AFL and we should never abandon it to jump at shadows.

Hopefully we have learnt that negative footy doesn't help you to hold on.

A sliding doors moment when Rankine ran straight at goal and 15m out on a 45 degree angle had sprayed the kick. This miss was actually an easier attempt compared with his first goal with some quick-steps and a banana kick. A what-if moment, but just to highlight how footy can literally be a game of moments separating 2 teams.

 

[Golumless]

I think the main thing we've learned in the last 7 weeks is we've got past the first major hurdle of a rebuilding side. Having a talented enough squad to be able to kick out of the tanking phase. We've also started to flash some serious upside to this rebuild, seeing we've had periods where we've torched some quality sides, however we're also a momentum team. When a part of a game works, it really works. When it doesn't, it's at a god awful level. That should be something that irons out with experience and more quality coming into the lineup. That said, we don't look ready at this point to take the step from mid-table side/fringe finalist to contender.

I think the highlights for me, player wise, have been both Chayce Jones

1

Chayce Jones

Age

24

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.6

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.9

4star

MG

178.6

3star

D

8.9

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

1.6

3star

MG

143.3

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

175.0

3star

and Lachie Sholl. I know there are more obvious ones, but seeing these two lads from the 2018 draft, one that was beginning to look rough, iron out the kinks to their game and start to string together some big performances has been a real boom. Especially Sholl, seeing toughness at the contest can be fatal to most, but he's found a way to address that issue to a decent degree - he'll never be a Luke Pedlar, but you also don't need to be that tough to own a wing role.

The game plan is starting to look good. The brutal pressure game from last year is still there and we've added a fair bit of an attacking punch as well. Especially as we've flexed an ability to pick our way through zones, on top of a vicious counter attack. It still needs a fair bit of refinement, but the nucleus of a big time contender is there on that front. I've been quite happy with our defense in particular this year. It's been a tad unlucky, but we've seemed to be able to stop fast breakaways with a semi-regularity and a high talent piece like Michaelanny fitting in has really cleaned it up. At the moment, we've just broke into the top 8 for points against which bodes very well.

The biggest issue seems to be our inside midfield, with our clearance game being a bit of a mess. I'd be quite happy if we moved on Van Berlo at years end and get a different voice in there. Some of it might just be able to fix itself as lads like Soglio, Pedlar and Rachele get older, but still, I'm yet to see anything there that fills me with confidence. Just seems like we haven't quite worked out the structure we want there.

Also, our admin seems rather decent at the moment, which is probably the first time I've been able to say that since Trigg took over the reigns. Seeing Adelaides lack of success is primarily the result of an admin group that repeatedly shot themselves in the foot when it mattered, it feels me with a tad bit of confidence. Of course, that ex-NBA guy we got could be a total spud for all I know, but at least he sounds decent. Ditto Olsen and Silvers who have preceded over very little * ups in the last two-three years.

All in all, things are going well, but now comes the hard part. Turning a promising side into a genuine contender. Last time we ruined it by draft sanctions, so the bar to do better than the 2010s is practically on the floor.

 

[Golumless]

Statistically this isn't actually the case. Even including the inaccurate first 2 rounds, going into this game we were beating our expected score by ~10% for the season, so had been significantly more accurate than expected. Yesterday was a regression to the mean.

Also, compared to other teams we are taking shots from further out, i.e more difficult shots.
This means that in poorer conditions, like yesterday, we'll likely be less accurate.
High risk high reward strategy, but we of all teams have the personnel to pull it off imo

Here's an interesting, if not prophetic, exchange i stumbled across on twitter on just this a few days before the game.

Seeing we've been a tad unlucky in defense doesn't surprise me. We've had teams go on pretty impressive runs with goal kicking. Seeing we've been lucky on offense does surprise me, seeing how hot and cold we've been.

 

[WeeBlake]

I think the main thing we've learned in the last 7 weeks is we've got past the first major hurdle of a rebuilding side. Having a talented enough squad to be able to kick out of the tanking phase. We've also started to flash some serious upside to this rebuild, seeing we've had periods where we've torched some quality sides, however we're also a momentum team. When a part of a game works, it really works. When it doesn't, it's at a god awful level. That should be something that irons out with experience and more quality coming into the lineup. That said, we don't look ready at this point to take the step from mid-table side/fringe finalist to contender.

I think the highlights for me, player wise, have been both Chayce Jones and Lachie Sholl. I know there are more obvious ones, but seeing these two lads from the 2018 draft, one that was beginning to look rough, iron out the kinks to their game and start to string together some big performances has been a real boom. Especially Sholl, seeing toughness at the contest can be fatal to most, but he's found a way to address that issue to a decent degree - he'll never be a Luke Pedlar, but you also don't need to be that tough to own a wing role.

The game plan is starting to look good. The brutal pressure game from last year is still there and we've added a fair bit of an attacking punch as well. Especially as we've flexed an ability to pick our way through zones, on top of a vicious counter attack. It still needs a fair bit of refinement, but the nucleus of a big time contender is there on that front. I've been quite happy with our defense in particular this year. It's been a tad unlucky, but we've seemed to be able to stop fast breakaways with a semi-regularity and a high talent piece like Michaelanny fitting in has really cleaned it up. At the moment, we've just broke into the top 8 for points against which bodes very well.

The biggest issue seems to be our inside midfield, with our clearance game being a bit of a mess. I'd be quite happy if we moved on Van Berlo at years end and get a different voice in there. Some of it might just be able to fix itself as lads like Soglio, Pedlar and Rachele get older, but still, I'm yet to see anything there that fills me with confidence. Just seems like we haven't quite worked out the structure we want there.

Also, our admin seems rather decent at the moment, which is probably the first time I've been able to say that since Trigg took over the reigns. Seeing Adelaides lack of success is primarily the result of an admin group that repeatedly shot themselves in the foot when it mattered, it feels me with a tad bit of confidence. Of course, that ex-NBA guy we got could be a total spud for all I know, but at least he sounds decent. Ditto Olsen and Silvers who have preceded over very little * ups in the last two-three years.

All in all, things are going well, but now comes the hard part. Turning a promising side into a genuine contender. Last time we ruined it by draft sanctions, so the bar to do better than the 2010s is practically on the floor.

Great post. Agree with all of it.

 

[Rotayjay]

I suspected that having an accurate few weeks in front of goal would catch up with us, but it's nice to have statistics supporting that.

Many a team has failed to take the step from almost-finalist to finalist, and from finalist to genuine contender. We've learnt we're not a bottom side anymore, but whether we can be a finals team remains to be seen.

 

[WeeBlake]

Last time we ruined it by draft sanctions.

Sad but true. Still hurting us.