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Retrospective tips - Round 1.

Initial ratings

Geelong 35.54 (I'm prepared to see this blow up in my face)

Sydney 12.15

Richmond 11.52

Port Adelaide 10.11

Melbourne 8.48

Collingwood 6.33

Fremantle 4.3

Brisbane 1.49

Carlton 0.95

Western Bulldogs -0.31

Gold Coast -2.28

St Kilda -3.38

Adelaide -4.37

Hawthorn -4.57

Essendon -4.98

GWS -8.82

West Coast -10.88

North Melbourne -15.6

I'm using (initially) rounds 16-onward from last year. Byes are entered as a zero round, and will affect scores (probably bringing them a little toward zero). An additional bye is counted after the grand final. Each round I'll remove one of last year's rounds from the data, starting with the oldest.

(all of these can be inferred by the method and the ratings. If the algorithm picks a draw, I'll round it out to a 1 point margin one way or the other.)

Richmond +11 v Carlton

Geelong +29 v Collingwood

North Melbourne +7 v West Coast

Port Adelaide +21 v Brisbane

Melbourne +13 v Western Bulldogs

Gold Coast v Sydney +8

GWS +8 v Adelaide

Hawthorn +1 v Essendon

St Kilda +7 v Fremantle

6.5/9 from round 1.