Hawthorn vs. Sydney (MCG)

Match of the round on a Friday night. I can’t go past the Hawks in this one. Sydney lost me by trying to score (when they had a five-point lead) in the last minute against Richmond last week. A Tigers’ turnover resulted in the Swans losing the game by a solitary point. What happened to chipping the ball around? Maintain possession. Milk the clock. Isn’t that the modern footy mantra when you’re in the lead with seconds to go? Anyway, the Hawks are just too professional, too cool and too good to let this one slip, especially under Friday night lights at the MCG. They’ll win. Hawthorn – 1-39.

Collingwood vs. Geelong (MCG)

The first game on Saturday afternoon and Collingwood will come back down to earth with an almighty thud after their mauling of the Brisbane Lions. The Pies aren’t back…not yet anyway. It’s just that Brisbane didn’t show up. The Cats are flag favourites, and deservedly so. They have the healthiest percentage of any team in the league (166.7). Sitting in second place, one game behind top-of-the-table North Melbourne, they’re patiently waiting for the Roos to drop a game. When they do, that percentage will be gold! The Cats to win this one, and win it quite well. Geelong 25+

Gold Coast vs. Adelaide (Metricon Stadium)

Even a home game won’t help the Suns from another thrashing, this time at the hands of the Crows. Skipper, Gary Ablett is facing a concussion test and in doubt to play. Adam Saad is definitely out with a hamstring injury. Look, the Suns have been desperately unlucky, completely riddled with injuries since last season. I feel for them. I really do. Their best players, and they have some exceptional talent, have been sidelined for extended periods. No team can win consistently, or even compete under those circumstances. That said, after their 91-point loss to GWS last weekend, the team attempted to de-stress and regroup by going “paintballing” on Monday. Not joking! Last time I checked, paintballing has the potential to cause some serious injuries and bruising. Surely, it can’t be a club-approved activity? The troops are down and wounded enough as it is. Why send the ones you have left into battle to shoot each other with an air gun loaded with paint balls. Yeah, let’s do that…NOT! It’s the strangest recovery (character-building) session I’ve ever heard of, especially for a team desperately struggling with football-related injuries. The Crows win this one – easily! I’m probably being kind with the margin I’ve set here. Adelaide – 60+

Port Adelaide vs. West Coast Eagles (Adelaide Oval)

West Coast are coming off a home ground, 103-point annihilation against a stunned and stagnant St. Kilda. Traveling is the Eagles’ downfall. It’s a hump they must get over in order to get to, and win, finals footy. This game should be the start of those away victories for the Eagles. West Coast Eagles – 25+

North Melbourne vs. Carlton (Etihad Stadium)

North went to sleep against Essendon in the second half last week. After a 50-point half-time lead, they only just got away with a 14-point win. It was as good as a loss, and the match should have been reviewed that way. It probably was. If the game went for another ten minutes, the Bombers surely would have snatched it. This week, the Roos take on the Blues. However, Carlton have two big outs. Levi Casboult (fractured leg) and ruckman, Matthew Kreuzer (knee injury) will both miss a month or more with their respective leg injuries. Patrick Cripps got a heavy knock last week. Additionally, he’s been cleared of a knee injury. He’ll play. But, will he play sore? No doubt, Carlton have been gallant of late, winning four on the trot. No one predicted that. They’ve clearly turned a corner. That said, their winning streak stops with this match. North to win quite easily, thus continuing their unbeaten record. After last week’s poor second half, North will put the foot down and play out the game to the dying seconds. Unfortunately, Carlton will be on the receiving end of players who’ve had a harsh reality check by their coach. North Melbourne – 40+

Fremantle vs. Richmond (Domain Stadium)

Richmond are coming off an after-the-siren, awe-inspiring 1-point win over the Swans. They jump on a plane and travel west to meet the winless Dockers on their home turf. Matthew Pavlich was rested last week. He’ll be back for this one. Despite losing to Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium in Tasmania, Fremantle were competitive for most of that game. Richmond’s tails will be up, but the home ground advantage will be the difference in the end. I can see this game being Fremantle’s first win of the season. It’s going to be a wet day with 10-20mm of rain expected, so it’ll be a scrap, but the Dockers have a real chance to finally get a win on the board here. Fremantle – 1-39

Melbourne vs. Brisbane (MCG)

After not scoring until the 14-minute mark of the second quarter against Collingwood last week, many have labelled that performance, or lack thereof, as the worst in recent history, by any team! I agree.

There’s no excuse for lack of effort. Right now, Brisbane are showing no heart, no effort and no skill. Even their reserves are getting thrashed. Where’s the depth? There is none! Player retention is going to be a real problem for both Queensland teams if these despicable performances keep getting dished up. Melbourne are coming off an honourable loss against the Western Bulldogs. It’s not a question of Melbourne winning. The question is…what will the margin be? With Skipper Tom Rockliff and Dayne Beams out, it could get very, very ugly. The only saving grace that Brisbane can hope for is rain. So far, it’s not predicted. Melbourne – 60+

GWS vs. Western Bulldogs (Spotless Stadium)

The Western Bulldogs are good. They’re real good. However, GWS are better. Much better. Top four better? Yep! On home turf, they’ll stop the Doggies barking, sending them home with their tails between their legs. Matthew Boyd and Jack Redpath will both sit this game out after the MRP gave them a week’s suspension for rough play. They’re two big losses for the Doggies. It’s also their first time traveling interstate for the season. Both teams play a frantically fast game. They’re both goal-scoring machines. It’ll be interesting to see which team has the ability to shut the other one down, but with Boyd and Redpath ruled out, and on their home deck, GWS are the stronger team. I’m really looking forward to this game. GWS – 25+

St. Kilda vs. Essendon (Etihad Stadium)

Last game of the round and St. Kilda are coming off a 103-point loss to the Eagles. No one expected that, least of all the Saints! This loss was one of those bizarre footy moments that must be wiped from the slate. It just can’t be explained. They’re not that bad. No way! If the playing group can shake it off quickly, putting that triple-point belting behind them, they’ll beat Essendon. The Bombers will go in believing they can win this one though. They’re not the easy beats everyone thought them to be. They don’t give up. They keep going. There’s something to be said for playing out a full game, despite the numbers on the scoreboard. It’s the very reason why Bombers fans gave their team a standing ovation last weekend, despite losing to top-of-the-table, North Melbourne. Essendon didn’t give up. That type of grunt, spunk and spirit deserves to be applauded, even if they don’t take away the four points. St. Kilda – 1-39.

Best Bets

We’ll be starting with $300 in the bank…here’s where we’re putting our cash:

Best AFL Multi: Geelong (H2H), North Melbourne (H2H), Greater Western Sydney (H2H), Adelaide 40+, Melbourne 40+ – $6.99 @ $100 = $699

Best player disposal double: Cameron Guthrie (Geelong) – $1.54 into Rory Sloane (Adelaide) – $1.89 (both to get 25 or more disposals) – $2.91 @ $100 = $291

Highest Margin of the Week: It’s a toss up between Gold Coast vs. Adelaide ($3.50) and Melbourne vs. Brisbane ($5.50). I can’t see any other game beating these two. It’s worth putting $50 on each possibility. The most you’ll win is $175. The least you’ll win is $75.

*Prices quoted from Sportsbet – Tuesday, May 17 @ 10AM.