AFL Round 16
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alex mcanulty
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2u Brisbane +31.5 line 2.10
0.5u Richmond v lions TML under 177.5 1.90
0.5U hawthorn margin +40 2.55
and
0.5U gws SU over the crows 3.55
0.5u Richmond v lions TML under 177.5 1.90
0.5U hawthorn margin +40 2.55
and
0.5U gws SU over the crows 3.55
- Aug 15, 2011
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I can also see Richmond being content beating stkilda expected to smash brisbane by most and then come out a bit flat and complacent considering they cant make finals aswell. Brisbane were also with them for most of the game this year till late. Redden would be a big out though if he is
happy punter
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Kangaroos +24.5 over Hawks @ 1.91 (2 units)
Kangaroos +24.5 over Hawks @ 1.91 (2 units)
- Thread starter
- #57
Just a heads up for those backing North on Friday night.
Ziebell will be out with injury, rumors that Hansen won't recover in time (was a late out against the Lions) and also Scott Thompson could be out.
Rumors also that Black & Bastinac will be dropped for Wood & Dumont.
Ziebell will be out with injury, rumors that Hansen won't recover in time (was a late out against the Lions) and also Scott Thompson could be out.
Rumors also that Black & Bastinac will be dropped for Wood & Dumont.
^^ dang, was going to be cheering for North for Sydney's sake but I might just multi up the Hawks in that case.
Anybody think the Eagles are a chance for an upset? Hannebery is a decent out as he is usually good for about 40 posessions over there. I read on the Eagles board though that they are something like 0-16 against the current top 6 over the last couple of years.
Anybody think the Eagles are a chance for an upset? Hannebery is a decent out as he is usually good for about 40 posessions over there. I read on the Eagles board though that they are something like 0-16 against the current top 6 over the last couple of years.
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1u: Brisbane +37.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1u: Adelaide -23.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1u: Adelaide -23.5, Brisbane +37.5, Hawthorn SU @ $4.60 (Sportsbet
1u: Gold Coast SU @ $2.15 (Sportsbet)
1u: Adelaide -23.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1u: Adelaide -23.5, Brisbane +37.5, Hawthorn SU @ $4.60 (Sportsbet
1u: Gold Coast SU @ $2.15 (Sportsbet)
- Sep 25, 2013
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Hawthorn 1-39
Carlton 1-39
Sydney 25+
3 Leg Multi @ 9.90
Carlton 1-39
Sydney 25+
3 Leg Multi @ 9.90
Bit surprised GCS have come in so much the last couple of days, almost at pk now.
I've liked the Pies since the lines were released, although I have faded GCS almost every week after their NM upset win, and haven't had much success.
Perhaps, I have and am still underestimating them.
I've liked the Pies since the lines were released, although I have faded GCS almost every week after their NM upset win, and haven't had much success.
Perhaps, I have and am still underestimating them.
Perhaps, but I think $3.30-odd is a little short. I've got a number of bets riding on the Swans winning streak to continue so I might hedge a bit out on the Eagles. Would like $4+ to seriously think of taking them.
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Pk? And meaning
Im considering getting on the pies now at just about even money. Wish I jumped on GC at +7.5 but instead went 1-39.
The travel could affect the suns. Perth, home, Tasmania and back home
alex mcanulty
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will be tailing once again chief
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Fingers crossed then.
Seems like Hansen and Thompson will play tomorrow - they have been named.
Black and Bastinac appear to have retained their spots too.
Not having a go at you at all, just wondering whether you know anything about Hansen/Thompson being possible late outs.
Pk, means that the line was originally +.. and now is at pick, no points given.
Did you already get on the GC 1-39? If so I wouldn't bother getting on the Pies.
Yeh well that's what I've thought for the last 5-6 weeks but they keep proving me wrong. I've lost a lot fading the GCS in recent weeks.
Forgive me for this dumb question but can someone tell me about total points markets.
Sportsbet - Say North vs Hawks
181 - 190 @ $7.40
191 - 200 @ $7.00
201 - 210 @ $7.00
The line is basically in the middle at 195.
If you were to put $1 on each is there value or is this too risky compared to a line bet?
Generally speaking how close is the line to the total points for most games? It always seems to be close whenever I take the total points line.
It's hard for me to see that game going below 181 but I could see it potentially going over 210, so I would lean to the overs if taking the line.
Sportsbet - Say North vs Hawks
181 - 190 @ $7.40
191 - 200 @ $7.00
201 - 210 @ $7.00
The line is basically in the middle at 195.
If you were to put $1 on each is there value or is this too risky compared to a line bet?
Generally speaking how close is the line to the total points for most games? It always seems to be close whenever I take the total points line.
It's hard for me to see that game going below 181 but I could see it potentially going over 210, so I would lean to the overs if taking the line.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,789
- 8,392
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- Essendon
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- Port Adelaide
Not massively excited by player exotics this week
- Aug 15, 2011
- 23,789
- 8,392
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Hawks vs North
0.5U Harvey <27.5 @1.80
0.75U Dalsanto <108.5 SC @1.70
0.5U Dalsanto over Cunnington DT @1.80
1.5U Birchall >77.5 DT @1.87
1U Roughead -3 goals @1.80
1U Shiels > 92.5 DT @1.87
Rich vs Bris
0.5U Bris +36.5 @1.92
0.5U Bris/Rich TML <177.5 @1.91
1U Rockliff over Cotchin DT @1.72
0.5U Hanley >24.5 disp @2.15 (Shouldve gone <29.5)
0.5U Deledio >29.5 disp @3.10
GWS vs Adel
1U T.Walker +2 goals @1.72
0.2U T.Lynch > 2.5 goals @5.20
2U ST over Sloane @1.88
1U Sloane over Douglas @1.70
GC vs Coll
1.5u GC 1-39 @2.80
0.5U Harry Lumumba <76.5 DT @1.87
Melb vs Freo
1U Barlow 26.5+ disp @1.85 (I just realised I was looking at Fyfes numbers for this bet)
1U Barlow <26.5 disp @1.90
1.5U Barlow over Fyfe DT @1.80
2U S.Hill <104.5 SC @1.87 - VOIDED
1U Ballantyne -3 goals @1.60 - MONEY BACK
12.5U Dawes <1.5 goals @2.00
10U Dawes 2 goals or more @2.50
Port vs Dons
2U <184.5 TML @1.90
1U Goddard over Heppell DT @1.85
2U Heppell <28.5 disp @1.90
2U Schulz -3 goals @1.76 - MONEY BACK
0.2U Carlisle > 2.5 goals @6.00
0.4U Carlisle > 1.5 goals @2.10
Carl vs STK
0.5U TML <183.5 @1.91
1.5U Gibbs over Murphy DT @1.75
2U A.Walker >0.5 goals @3.00 (bad bet shouldnt have gone so big)
WCE vs Syd
1U Sydney 1-39 @2.10 (betstar)
0.5U K.Jack >104.5 @1.87
1U K.Jack >100.5 DT @1.87
2U K.Jack over Parker @1.75
1U K.Jack > 29.5 disp @2.90
3U Franklin <3.5 goals @1.76
1U J.J.Kennedy -2 goals @2.00 (Luxbet) - MONEY BACK
Geel vs WBD
1.5U Bartel >96.5 DT @1.87
1.5U Bartel <107.5 DT @1.87
0.5U SJ <110.5 DT @1.87
1.5U Liberatore over Macrae DT @1.88 - VOIDED
1.5U Crameri <1.5 goals @1.76
1U Hawkins >2.5 goals @1.72
1U Hawkins > 2.5 goals @1.83
Multi: 2U Port/Geel/Syd SU @1.98
*More bets to come waiting for rest of lux, Betstar and B365
0.5U Harvey <27.5 @1.80
0.75U Dalsanto <108.5 SC @1.70
0.5U Dalsanto over Cunnington DT @1.80
1.5U Birchall >77.5 DT @1.87
1U Roughead -3 goals @1.80
1U Shiels > 92.5 DT @1.87
Rich vs Bris
0.5U Bris +36.5 @1.92
0.5U Bris/Rich TML <177.5 @1.91
1U Rockliff over Cotchin DT @1.72
0.5U Hanley >24.5 disp @2.15 (Shouldve gone <29.5)
0.5U Deledio >29.5 disp @3.10
GWS vs Adel
1U T.Walker +2 goals @1.72
0.2U T.Lynch > 2.5 goals @5.20
2U ST over Sloane @1.88
1U Sloane over Douglas @1.70
GC vs Coll
1.5u GC 1-39 @2.80
0.5U Harry Lumumba <76.5 DT @1.87
Melb vs Freo
1U Barlow 26.5+ disp @1.85 (I just realised I was looking at Fyfes numbers for this bet)
1U Barlow <26.5 disp @1.90
1.5U Barlow over Fyfe DT @1.80
2U S.Hill <104.5 SC @1.87 - VOIDED
1U Ballantyne -3 goals @1.60 - MONEY BACK
12.5U Dawes <1.5 goals @2.00
10U Dawes 2 goals or more @2.50
Port vs Dons
2U <184.5 TML @1.90
1U Goddard over Heppell DT @1.85
2U Heppell <28.5 disp @1.90
2U Schulz -3 goals @1.76 - MONEY BACK
0.2U Carlisle > 2.5 goals @6.00
0.4U Carlisle > 1.5 goals @2.10
Carl vs STK
0.5U TML <183.5 @1.91
1.5U Gibbs over Murphy DT @1.75
2U A.Walker >0.5 goals @3.00 (bad bet shouldnt have gone so big)
WCE vs Syd
1U Sydney 1-39 @2.10 (betstar)
0.5U K.Jack >104.5 @1.87
1U K.Jack >100.5 DT @1.87
2U K.Jack over Parker @1.75
1U K.Jack > 29.5 disp @2.90
3U Franklin <3.5 goals @1.76
1U J.J.Kennedy -2 goals @2.00 (Luxbet) - MONEY BACK
Geel vs WBD
1.5U Bartel >96.5 DT @1.87
1.5U Bartel <107.5 DT @1.87
0.5U SJ <110.5 DT @1.87
1.5U Liberatore over Macrae DT @1.88 - VOIDED
1.5U Crameri <1.5 goals @1.76
1U Hawkins >2.5 goals @1.72
1U Hawkins > 2.5 goals @1.83
Multi: 2U Port/Geel/Syd SU @1.98
*More bets to come waiting for rest of lux, Betstar and B365
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2 units Greenwood over Harvey DT @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)
Harvey has been in ridiculous form for his age this year but was quieter last week with 79 and 'just' 97 the week before. Prior to this year Harvey's best average was just 95 so I think it is more likely then not he drops his average from the current 102 to around that. Greenwood has also been in exceptional DT form and is averaging 114 in his last 8 to Harvey 105. Can get lines of 106.5 for Greenwood and 98.5 for Harvey which I think is about right.
2 units Cotchin Under 110.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Have a feeling I will regret this after he killed me last week but not sure he deserves this high of a line after having his line usually around 95. Averages 104 this year and has gone under this line in 10 of the last 13. Playing Lions is a concern but surely he doesn't kick 5 goals and have 30 touches again!
2 units Thompson Over Sloane DT @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Taking the in form Thompson here who is averaging 137 in last 3 and 111 in his last 11 compared to Sloane with 99 for both his last 3 and last 11 showing his consistency. Can get a line of 110.5 for Thompson which I think is spot on and would expect a Sloane line to be around 102ish. Sloane the more likely of the 2 to get tagged as well.
2 units O'Meara over Bennell DT @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Both averaging 92 but Bennell's average is inflated by a huge score of 155. Apart from that he is averaging 82 from the other 6 games. O'Meara has won this H2H 5 of the last 6 times and has been pretty consistant around the 80-100 range. I know Maccaffer will go to Gaz but if the Pies put any work into anyone else Bennell is a fair chance to be that player.
2 units Hill Under 104.5 SC @ $1.60 (Sportsbet)
Should have taken this the other day and must say Keystone did the research already on this one. Given his form he is a chance to cop the Viney tag (who did the job on Libba last week) as Cross is out.
2 units Goddard Under 109.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Not quite the 117.5 I got last week but this is still around 5 points too high I think. Is averaging the same as last year which is 105 so that should be closer to his line I expect. Playing Port away is also about as tough a road trip as there is at the moment so that can only help.
2 units Liberatore over Macrae DT @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Took this last week and if Libba wasn't tagged very hard like he was he would have won easily. Macrae has a line of 96.5 out there and Libba has been around 110 to 115 lately with his great form. Griffen back should mean he avoids the tag.
2 units Boyd over Bartel DT @ $1.75 (Sportsbet)
Average of 107 to 102 and you can get lines of 105.5 and 95.5. Boyd has been great this year when he has played and has not dropped below 86 while Bartel tends to be a bit more hit and miss with some big scores but has scored under 90 in 4 of last 7.
Harvey has been in ridiculous form for his age this year but was quieter last week with 79 and 'just' 97 the week before. Prior to this year Harvey's best average was just 95 so I think it is more likely then not he drops his average from the current 102 to around that. Greenwood has also been in exceptional DT form and is averaging 114 in his last 8 to Harvey 105. Can get lines of 106.5 for Greenwood and 98.5 for Harvey which I think is about right.
2 units Cotchin Under 110.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Have a feeling I will regret this after he killed me last week but not sure he deserves this high of a line after having his line usually around 95. Averages 104 this year and has gone under this line in 10 of the last 13. Playing Lions is a concern but surely he doesn't kick 5 goals and have 30 touches again!
2 units Thompson Over Sloane DT @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Taking the in form Thompson here who is averaging 137 in last 3 and 111 in his last 11 compared to Sloane with 99 for both his last 3 and last 11 showing his consistency. Can get a line of 110.5 for Thompson which I think is spot on and would expect a Sloane line to be around 102ish. Sloane the more likely of the 2 to get tagged as well.
2 units O'Meara over Bennell DT @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Both averaging 92 but Bennell's average is inflated by a huge score of 155. Apart from that he is averaging 82 from the other 6 games. O'Meara has won this H2H 5 of the last 6 times and has been pretty consistant around the 80-100 range. I know Maccaffer will go to Gaz but if the Pies put any work into anyone else Bennell is a fair chance to be that player.
2 units Hill Under 104.5 SC @ $1.60 (Sportsbet)
Should have taken this the other day and must say Keystone did the research already on this one. Given his form he is a chance to cop the Viney tag (who did the job on Libba last week) as Cross is out.
2 units Goddard Under 109.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Not quite the 117.5 I got last week but this is still around 5 points too high I think. Is averaging the same as last year which is 105 so that should be closer to his line I expect. Playing Port away is also about as tough a road trip as there is at the moment so that can only help.
2 units Liberatore over Macrae DT @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Took this last week and if Libba wasn't tagged very hard like he was he would have won easily. Macrae has a line of 96.5 out there and Libba has been around 110 to 115 lately with his great form. Griffen back should mean he avoids the tag.
2 units Boyd over Bartel DT @ $1.75 (Sportsbet)
Average of 107 to 102 and you can get lines of 105.5 and 95.5. Boyd has been great this year when he has played and has not dropped below 86 while Bartel tends to be a bit more hit and miss with some big scores but has scored under 90 in 4 of last 7.
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Where did the OMeara Bennell market go?
It's still there at $1.88. Are you looking under dream team H2H? I find they put them on their mobile site weird sometimes with half of them under 'outright' and the the other half not.
STANDBYHIRD12
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Cotch unders out to 1.95 now fwiw
