Opinion Expectations

[Steinfreo]

I saw alex eating brekkie today at otong and lincoln. His hair looked amazing. So probably still top 4

 

[clogged]

So McPharlin All Australian Full Back in 2012 and Johnson All Australian Left Full Back in 2013 doesn't do it for you?

Whether they are over the hill or not is a separate issue - they were our Key Backs in 2014.

Not really, no. There are two defenders that are expected to take the expected two key talls for the opposition - McPharlin and Dawson. Johnson stands the third tall, but Ibbotson usually drops in the hole to take the defensive mark (sometimes Sandilands as well). Johnson's job isn't to strictly mind a player (thought he's not bad at that) it's to create off half back like a flanker does.

On the subject of injuries, Freo was third on the ladder at the bye last year with Pavlich having played three games and Sandilands playing zero. Kepler and Griffin were their back ups and they went down. The side played under heavy duress in the first half of 2013 and still won enough games such that they were in a good place when the keys came back, to the extent the side could throw the last match and still finish third.

The injury situation was far more preferable in the first half of 2014 and yet the side sat fifth at the same point. Inexcusable losses to North and St Kilda were not caused by injury. And as the team ran into finals, they had to fight out every game with the best possible side just to make fourth.

 

[McClane]

My expectations are quite tempered compared to the start of 2014. I reckon 3-6 is a good result this year. We wont make the big one. Hawthorn could be pushing for 3 in a row, definatly the team to beat while Sydney are up there too. I just hope we get to play them somewhere other than Sydney for a change.

Port is a funny one, they had a great year no doubt, but they haven't got much depth, and a couple of big injuries could see them struggling. (i.e. rounds 14-19 iirc)

While I don't think our Premiership window is closed, I feel it is for Pav, Sandi and Macca, maybe even Johnno. We wont win it in 2015, but possibly soon after. We have a lot of kids still developing and hopefully will all start to peak in 2-3 years. Then, then we will conquer all! muawahahaha!!!

 

[Leatherpoizoned]

Expectations for next season are as they have been since we started under our current list management model, that is, remain competitive throughout the season (hopefully finishing in the 1-6 bracket) and play finals, while developing younger players with an eye to the future (it's VERY optimistic but I'd love to see 1 or 2 of the current back six replaced by younger players by the end of next season). Best case scenario we contest and win the premiership worst case scenario we finish in the lower half of the top 8 and expose the Taberners, A Pierces, Duffys and what prodigiously talented KPP back or small defender we may pick up in the draft to finals football.

I would expect a mini clean out at the end of next season, with Crowley, Mcpharlin, Sandi, Duffield, Johnson etc to either retire or begin to considering their retirement, it may also be time to consider the careers of some of our depth then too, the Subans, Deboers and Hannaths of the world.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

think 5-8 is accurate, hawks/syd/port/north probably top 4.

Port will have a significantly tougher draw this year.
I think Freo, if they have a good run with injuries, will make top four.
Geelong will go 5-8.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

I don't think it does. Our fixture will be based on us finishing fourth this season which will see us versing two of the top four teams twice

I'd say Geelong and Sydney

That will be good for us.
Getting Sydney at Subiaco will be welcome change. We have had Geelong at Subi for a few years now.
Return bouts against top four teams doesn't worry me.

 

[Clems Knee]

Our Draw should be easier next year than last year. While we are still top six, which should give us about the same number of double fixtures against the top teams, we also have to get a double fixture against the Eagles, and they finished in the middle six this year, not the bottom six. Hopefully that means we get to play a bottom six team twice this year. The AFL came out with a clear formula last year. Surely they wouldn't ditch it after only one year?

So this season we played Hawthorn, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and West Coast twice, with away games only against Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, St. Kilda and Melbourne and home games against Carlton, Adelaide, Essendon, North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney.
The other top six (after finals) from 2013 are in bold, the middle six are in italics.

Next season we should play three of Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Port Adelaide or North Melbourne twice, West Coast twice and one of Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, St.Kilda, Greater Western Sydney or Melbourne twice.

Because we finished sixth after finals, I think we are likely to play Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and either Geelong or Sydney twice (reckon Hawthorn as Premiers will deserve the blockbusters and our position doesn't warrant that).

I also reckon it's time for us to play Sydney over here if there is only one game against them, and time for us to play our first away game against GWS. This should make us more likely to win, unless GWs improves markedly next year. I would bet the bottom team we play twice is St. Kilda, after their glory game against this year.

Of course, six day breaks are another matter. There are plenty of ways for the fixture to shaft us. But with a slightly more favourable draw, we could climb to top two: we were very close this year. And with a good run of injuries at the pointy end of the season, who knows?

tl;dr: we should get another double game against one of 2014's weaker teams because the Eagles finished higher and an easier draw against the top six teams, because we finished poorly at the end of the year.

 

[Square Peg]

The formula is top six teams have the following five double ups:
2 or 3 games vs other top six
1 or 2 games versus middle six,
and 0 or 1 games versus bottom six.

There is no guarantee we will get a double up versus the bottom six.

Anyway, I agree with Fred, the more double ups versus top 6 the better. The potential season killers in the draw are when you only have one game against a fellow top 6 team and it is an away game. Essentially when this happens you play with one hand tied behind your back in a classic eight point games, a la Sydney for us the last 2 years.

 

[Clems Knee]

The formula is top six teams have the following five double ups:
2 or 3 games vs other top six
1 or 2 games versus middle six,
and 0 or 1 games versus bottom six.

There is no guarantee we will get a double up versus the bottom six.

Anyway, I agree with Fred, the more double ups versus top 6 the better. The potential season killers in the draw are when you only have one game against a fellow top 6 team and it is an away game. Essentially when this happens you play with one hand tied behind your back in a classic eight point games, a la Sydney for us the last 2 years.

Thanks for the clarification. And I agree with your last statement. But I do hope we get some easier away games, and harder home games as well as the double ups that are more even.
Bottom line is the fixture will be important in determining our chances. Some of it is unpredictable, some of it may make it an uphill battle, and some may work in our favour.
Sydney had a favourable draw this year with the six day breaks faced by their opponents before being matched against them. Geelong always gets a favourable draw, as they get the advantages of a unique home ground and none of the disadvantages of travelling away. Perhaps it's our turn.

 

[E Shed]

Its a bit hard on the team to say that going into finals against full strength teams without Johnson, McPharlin and Silvagni didn't hurt us.
The real season starts in September and were limping at that point.
Give us those players and take 3 of Ports defenders out and we would have murdered them.

 

[Unique Name]

Its a bit hard on the team to say that going into finals against full strength teams without Johnson, McPharlin and Silvagni didn't hurt us.
The real season starts in September and were limping at that point.
Give us those players and take 3 of Ports defenders out and we would have murdered them.

We were murdering them, just couldn't put them away. Injuries hurt us for sure, but our replacement defenders didn't let us down in the finals. Our Mids and Forwards under performed and that is what cost us.

 

[E Shed]

We were murdering them, just couldn't put them away. Injuries hurt us for sure, but our replacement defenders didn't let us down in the finals. Our Mids and Forwards under performed and that is what cost us.

True but how much good clean attacking play does Johnson set up through the middle? How much better would be have been able to resist Port surging with those 3 back in defence?
The difference at the highest level is so small that you can't expect to beat the very best when they have their best 22 and you don't.
I thought the team was terrific in the finals considering.
We will still be thereabouts next year.

 

[Unique Name]

True but how much good clean attacking play does Johnson set up through the middle? How much better would be have been able to resist Port surging with those 3 back in defence?
The difference at the highest level is so small that you can't expect to beat the very best when they have their best 22 and you don't.
I thought the team was terrific in the finals considering.
We will still be thereabouts next year.

We lost because we struggled to win clearances and kick goals, Johnson being there instead of Ibbo would not have addressed that. We didn't need Johnson to set-up any attacking plays for us, we had more than enough attacking plays that lead to shots on goal we just failed to capitalise.

Even though I don't think our defence was the issue, you're right in that had we had Macca and Johnson at full strength in the backline we might of been able to withstand Port's attacks better than we did.


We will be Top 4 next year, just need everybody to stand up when it matters to make it to the big dance.

 

[Schauermann]

Not sure, most likely we will make the 8. Not sure where exactly. Still, it is long way until next season.

We have some room for improvement:

-Pav, Ballas, Walters, Mayne back to goalkicking form perhaps another tall or small stepping up to at least 20+ goals
-Midfield can still improve overall consistency. Not sure, have the perception our mids are less likely to all have a day out then other decent or better midfields. But could be a perception all fans have about their team. Perhaps a young player can step up. And we had injuries, suspensions there as well.
-backline was relativly unsettled this year

But others have as well. So a lot needs to go right to finish at least near the top. Can see few teams dropping down the ladder but a few will.

 

[clogged]

Its a bit hard on the team to say that going into finals against full strength teams without Johnson, McPharlin and Silvagni didn't hurt us.
The real season starts in September and were limping at that point.
Give us those players and take 3 of Ports defenders out and we would have murdered them.

Even if that was the case, the likelihood of getting over both Hawthorn and Sydney in successive weeks afterwards was minimal, so quibbling about whether injuries denied the side the opportunity to finish fourth is pointless.

 

[E Shed]

Even if that was the case, the likelihood of getting over both Hawthorn and Sydney in successive weeks afterwards was minimal, so quibbling about whether injuries denied the side the opportunity to finish fourth is pointless.

Really? Talking hypotheticals about football on a message board is pointless. Damn, there's 8 years I can't get back.

If we were full strength going into finals we could have taken Sydney in week 1 and got the double chance.
Our best is good enough and we have plenty of upside for next year.

 

[clogged]

Really? Talking hypotheticals about football on a message board is pointless. Damn, there's 8 years I can't get back.

It's not a hypothetical. You're making excuses.

If we were full strength going into finals we could have taken Sydney in week 1 and got the double chance.

If you're going to make the injury excuses for how Freo got unlucky, then why isn't there more talk about how lucky the side was in finals last year?

Our best is good enough and we have plenty of upside for next year.

It isn't good enough. It's well short of being good enough.

Freo have beaten one top four side away from home in the three years Lyon has been coaching. That's not good enough.

 

[E Shed]

I think we've done the glass half full V half empty enough times to know it doesn't get us anywhere.
We all have our default settings. I'm a realist on footy tending toward pessimistic when it comes to Freo
I think Lyon is a good coach and we have a list that is almost but not quite the equal of the top sides.
I think we have a footy dept that is professional and doing their best.
I don't believe that me whinging about it here makes any difference to what happens in the real world so I've chosen just to try and enjoy the game as much as I can and not take it personally or too hard when things don't go our way. I respect the right of others to wail and gnash their teeth and cry doom and gloom or whatever gets you through the night.
Freo is a top 4 team these days with a lot of respect in the league. Not bad considering where we've come from.

 

[clogged]

Lyon's a great coach but he's not a miracle worker. There are severely limited players occupying more spots in the team than warranted, who are in there because they serve a valuable role for the gameplan. As a result, the side has barely turned over since late 2012. Compare the semi final of 2012 to the semi final of 2014 to see how little the side has transformed.

Out from 2012:
Ballantyne (inj)
Johnson (inj)
C. Pearce (omit)
McPhee (retired)

By way of comparison, Hawthorn 2012 to 2014 has seen more of their best 22 turn over. Each year they have made the GF.

Out from 2012:

Ellis (West Coast)
Franklin (Sydney)
Savage (Melbourne)
Schoenmakers (omit)
Sewell (omit)
Young (Collingwood)

The notion that Freo can show up with a similar group, playing a similar style, in 2015, and win the lot does not stand to reason. It has had three years of stability and achieved 6th, 2nd and 6th. Lyon has extracted the most he possibly can from this group. For sustained success and a push for a premiership in the next few years, it's time for a rethink.

 

[Steinfreo]

I think we've done the glass half full V half empty enough times to know it doesn't get us anywhere.
We all have our default settings. I'm a realist on footy tending toward pessimistic when it comes to Freo
I think Lyon is a good coach and we have a list that is almost but not quite the equal of the top sides.
I think we have a footy dept that is professional and doing their best.
I don't believe that me whinging about it here makes any difference to what happens in the real world so I've chosen just to try and enjoy the game as much as I can and not take it personally or too hard when things don't go our way. I respect the right of others to wail and gnash their teeth and cry doom and gloom or whatever gets you through the night.
Freo is a top 4 team these days with a lot of respect in the league. Not bad considering where we've come from.

The pessimist v optimist battles make this place fun. I know what you saying ive pledged to myself that the inevitable drop down the ladder isnt going to bum me out like 07 did.

 

[ozzie69]

Lyon's a great coach but he's not a miracle worker. There are severely limited players occupying more spots in the team than warranted, who are in there because they serve a valuable role for the gameplan. As a result, the side has barely turned over since late 2012. Compare the semi final of 2012 to the semi final of 2014 to see how little the side has transformed.

Out from 2012:
Ballantyne (inj)
Johnson (inj)
C. Pearce (omit)
McPhee (retired)

By way of comparison, Hawthorn 2012 to 2014 has seen more of their best 22 turn over. Each year they have made the GF.

Out from 2012:

Ellis (West Coast)
Franklin (Sydney)
Savage (Melbourne)
Schoenmakers (omit)
Sewell (omit)
Young (Collingwood)

The notion that Freo can show up with a similar group, playing a similar style, in 2015, and win the lot does not stand to reason. It has had three years of stability and achieved 6th, 2nd and 6th. Lyon has extracted the most he possibly can from this group. For sustained success and a push for a premiership in the next few years, it's time for a rethink.

In my view there are a number of senior players in our team (post 30 years of age) who have been fantastic players over the years, but will never again be the players they once were. They have signed new contracts and will stick around, but we cannot expect to improve much building our side around these players. At some point, the tough decisions have to be made.

 

[Admiral Byng]

I think there is still plenty to be positive about. At the start of the season Ross Lyon was talking about kicking more goals. It didn't work out that way with Gumby and Keplar not playing one game between them, and Walters missing for most of the year. Zac Clarke as a forward didn't work out (12 goals for the year) and Mayne (13) well down on form too. So it was left to Pavlich (46) and Ballantyne (49) to kick most of out goals. Yet we finished 4th with a percentage of 130 - which still very decent.

Hopefully we'll have Walters fit for most of the season and Mayne back to some form and kicking 30+ goals. That combined with Pav and Ballas should make us pretty formidable. The big question will be if we can Tabs or Apeness playing regular games as the second tall. But even if they don't, we should still be pretty formidable with those other 4 all fit and in form.

 

[go_the_dockers]

KPF
Pavlich - Old A grader. Probably only a B grader next year although on occasions shows how good he is.
Taberner - Currently a C grader, hopefully next year he kick 30+ goals and be a B grader.
Clarke - Potential A grade ruck
Apeness - D grade, needs to take a step when given a chance. 10 games and scoring a goal in 80% of games would be good.


KPD
McPharlin - Old A grader. Probably only a B grader next year although on occasions shows how good he is.
Dawson - B grader, at best he nullifies his opponent but does not have the ability to go beyond this level.
Silvagni - Has the potential to be as good as Dawson. Don't see him going beyond this level.
Johnson - At this best he is an A grade 3rd tall. Needs to be managed so that he is 100% at the end of the year.


I believe we have an A grade midfield - (equal to Hawks and Sydney) but with our KPP stocks I can not see us winning a flag and next year it will only get harder.
I think we missed a chance with Shoenmaker, I think his potential to go back and forward would have been perfect for us. A forward line of Taberner, Pavlich and Shoenmaker would have been very dangerous and the year after we would have had Apeness, Taberner and Shoenmaker.

 

[freoextra]

Lyon's a great coach but he's not a miracle worker. There are severely limited players occupying more spots in the team than warranted, who are in there because they serve a valuable role for the gameplan. As a result, the side has barely turned over since late 2012. Compare the semi final of 2012 to the semi final of 2014 to see how little the side has transformed.

Out from 2012:
Ballantyne (inj)
Johnson (inj)
C. Pearce (omit)
McPhee (retired)

By way of comparison, Hawthorn 2012 to 2014 has seen more of their best 22 turn over. Each year they have made the GF.

Out from 2012:

Ellis (West Coast)
Franklin (Sydney)
Savage (Melbourne)
Schoenmakers (omit)
Sewell (omit)
Young (Collingwood)

The notion that Freo can show up with a similar group, playing a similar style, in 2015, and win the lot does not stand to reason. It has had three years of stability and achieved 6th, 2nd and 6th. Lyon has extracted the most he possibly can from this group. For sustained success and a push for a premiership in the next few years, it's time for a rethink.

All this says to me is that Hawthorn had or were forced to move on some players due to their success. The other obvious statement is that they have superior depth or development or both (probably why they won back to back).

Sure, you can't stand still and Hawthorn are really giving a lesson to all clubs on smart free agency recruitment, but we will never be in quite the same position unless we move the club to Melbourne (not in favour of that!). So you deal with what you do best, keep a stable team and make sure you develop your youth and give them opportunities and always have the best possible draft position.

I see lots of opportunities for Crozier, Sheridan, Apeness, Taberner, A Pearce and possibly Smith next year.

Who knows who will have the monster pre-season next year and force their way in.

 

[freoextra]

KPF

I believe we have an A grade midfield - (equal to Hawks and Sydney) but with our KPP stocks I can not see us winning a flag and next year it will only get harder.
I think we missed a chance with Shoenmaker, I think his potential to go back and forward would have been perfect for us. A forward line of Taberner, Pavlich and Shoenmaker would have been very dangerous and the year after we would have had Apeness, Taberner and Shoenmaker.

Midfield is by far the most important factor - I refer you to the 2006 wiggles premiership team.