ASADA case against Essendon hanging by a thread (The Age, 1 Nov 14)

[HirdsTheWord]

No it doesn't mean it wasn't there, it means that the evidence hasn't been presented to prove it was there - two distinctly different things.

#logicfail

How do you know it was there if there isnt any evidence to support it was there?

Id call that pretty black and white?

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Well done, "Stupidest post of the year" award coming your way!

so if there is no evidence to support Tb4 being on the premises that means it was on the premises?

please explain?

 

[Gavstar]

so if there is no evidence to support Tb4 being on the premises that means it was on the premises?

please explain?

There can be reasonable doubt that it was on the premises and the Tribunal can be comfortably satisfied it was there does that help?

 

[HirdsTheWord]

There can be reasonable doubt that it was on the premises and the Tribunal can be comfortably satisfied it was there does that help?

no im saying if there is NO evidence it was on the premises.

For them to be comfortably satisfied there must be at least some sort of evidence.

I was just simply replying to someone else who made a statement....

 

[LoungeLizard]

no im saying if there is NO evidence it was on the premises.

For them to be comfortably satisfied there must be at least some sort of evidence.

I was just simply replying to someone else who made a statement....

if there is no evidence it was on the premises, then there is no case.
so we can assume there is evidence, what that is nobody knows.
I think they will use the players sigs for thymosin, but who knows?
now combine the 2, and the players will need to show that the thymosin was not tb4 you would think

 

[Spongebob]

this not at all suspicious image the I just made, oops found, shows something interesting

 

[Magruder]

no im saying if there is NO evidence it was on the premises.

For them to be comfortably satisfied there must be at least some sort of evidence.

I was just simply replying to someone else who made a statement....

There may be sufficient circumstantial evidence. As noted many times by a number of posters, (see carlton2dabone analogies, particularily the trafficking one), you can reach beyond reaasonable doubt through the circumstantial, let alone comfy satisfaction.

If you had sufficient records or evidence of the "good" thymosin being on site it would render the evidence of TB4 doubtful. This is proving the negative that is often incorrectly claimed as impossible.

As it stands, EFC appear to have little to refute the circumstantial evidence of Thymosin on site being TB4. Certainly there is SFA in the public domain.

 

[Magruder]

if there is no evidence it was on the premises, then there is no case.
so we can assume there is evidence, what that is nobody knows.
I think they will use the players sigs for thymosin, but who knows?
now combine the 2, and the players will need to show that the thymosin was not tb4 you would think

Just seen this post. Absolutely spot on IMHO

 

[Gavstar]

But if Dank chooses not to appear and is the negative inferences are made from his case. He is then found guilty of the following.

- He did administer banned drugs to players in his office (on site).
- He did attempt to cover up the administration of banned drugs to players.

Hmmmm.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Just seen this post. Absolutely spot on IMHO

yes but not as simple as i stated, it will be a little bit more complicated i think.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

There may be sufficient circumstantial evidence. As noted many times by a number of posters, (see carlton2dabone analogies, particularily the trafficking one), you can reach beyond reaasonable doubt through the circumstantial, let alone comfy satisfaction.

If you had sufficient records or evidence of the "good" thymosin being on site it would render the evidence of TB4 doubtful. This is proving the negative that is often incorrectly claimed as impossible.

As it stands, EFC appear to have little to refute the circumstantial evidence of Thymosin on site being TB4. Certainly there is SFA in the public domain.

I totally agree with alot you are saying.

But i think you will find Essendons tactic will be to target and refute valaditity of the evidence rather than disprove it.

Was the photo taken of the bottle that dean wallis provided "good" thymosin? or was that thymodulin? or are they the same?

 

[HirdsTheWord]

if there is no evidence it was on the premises, then there is no case.
so we can assume there is evidence, what that is nobody knows.
I think they will use the players sigs for thymosin, but who knows?
now combine the 2, and the players will need to show that the thymosin was not tb4 you would think

Yeah no doubt. This is a solid post

However i do not think Essendon will need to prove themselves to be innocent. Moreso that ASADA will need to prove the validity of their evidence. I think its well known by now that Essendon kept s**t records unless Dank has something we dont know about.

 

[LoungeLizard]

I totally agree with alot you are saying.

But i think you will find Essendons tactic will be to target and refute valaditity of the evidence rather than disprove it.

Was the photo taken of the bottle that dean wallis provided "good" thymosin? or was that thymodulin? or are they the same?

serious question: how much weight do you think a photo of thymomodulin will have?

 

[Magruder]

I totally agree with alot you are saying.

But i think you will find Essendons tactic will be to target and refute valaditity of the evidence rather than disprove it.

Was the photo taken of the bottle that dean wallis provided "good" thymosin? or was that thymodulin? or are they the same?

and what places it at Windy Hill? - Dean Wallis' word only? (not saying he is telling porkies)
Where's the documentary chain?
perhaps Ancient Tiger can outline the differences in dosages etc for TB4 and Thymo Alpha? Which one matches up with the implementaion plan outlined? Which one potentially contributes to the physical changes to players in a very short time frame?

The case is not necessarily - prove we took it - it may be a contest between competing theories. The more credible will may carry the day.

 

[blackshadow]

serious question: how much weight do you think a photo of thymomodulin will have?

About 3 grams - depends on size and the paper it is printed on...

 

[LoungeLizard]

Yeah no doubt. This is a solid post

However i do not think Essendon will need to prove themselves to be innocent. Moreso that ASADA will need to prove the validity of their evidence. I think its well known by now that Essendon kept s**t records unless Dank has something we dont know about.

no doubt ASADA will need solid evidence, but if they can provide evidence that tb4 was on the premises, the players signed for thymosin.
If the players can not provide any evidence that the thymosin they signed for was indeed the "good stuff", then they are in a spot of bother you would think

 

[HirdsTheWord]

serious question: how much weight do you think a photo of thymomodulin will have?

more proof thymo was ther than tb4 was

at least physically.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

and what places it at Windy Hill? - Dean Wallis' word only? (not saying he is telling porkies)
Where's the documentary chain?
perhaps Ancient Tiger can outline the differences in dosages etc for TB4 and Thymo Alpha? Which one matches up with the implementaion plan outlined? Which one potentially contributes to the physical changes to players in a very short time frame?

The case is not necessarily - prove we took it - it may be a contest between competing theories. The more credible will may carry the day.

And what places Tb4 at windy hill?

If you think Essendon will get done only for a dosage program you are going to be sadly mistaken.

My bet is ASADA know this and have more evidence.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I totally agree with alot you are saying.

But i think you will find Essendons tactic will be to target and refute valaditity of the evidence rather than disprove it.

Was the photo taken of the bottle that dean wallis provided "good" thymosin? or was that thymodulin? or are they the same?

Problem with your last para, is with no batch code, product code, manufacture date, etc on the label, it's impossible to validate what the product actually is. In that case it's evidence of nothing

 

[HirdsTheWord]

no doubt ASADA will need solid evidence, but if they can provide evidence that tb4 was on the premises, the players signed for thymosin.
If the players can not provide any evidence that the thymosin they signed for was indeed the "good stuff", then they are in a spot of bother you would think

absolutley agree

IF Asada prove that Tb4 was on the premises than Essendon are goneskies.

 

[Magruder]

more proof thymo was ther than tb4 was

at least physically.

no it's a photo of a vial with Thymomodulin on a lable. It probably doesn't trump the reams of evidence we imagine ASADA to have. (we haven't seen it of course).

Look if the playersw get off it's because the evidence wasn't at the required threshold and credible alternative explanations for the bulk of the circumstances prsented were offered.

It's an outcome I'm OK with.

We do need to ensure that we do not treat this as if standards pertaining to criminal courts, both evidentiary and proceedural, apply. They do not.

 

[LoungeLizard]

more proof thymo was ther than tb4 was

at least physically.

Its a photo of a bottle that's all.
No proof of date of manufacture, not even where the photo was taken.
If i was accused of drinking on the job, carrying a photo of pepsi would make it all good hey?

 

[imperial_oz]

this not at all suspicious image the I just made, oops found, shows something interesting

View attachment 99266View attachment 99266

Needs more folds down the middle.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Its a photo of a bottle that's all.
No proof of date of manufacture, not even where the photo was taken.
If i was accused of drinking on the job, carrying a photo of pepsi would make it all good hey?

no because we would give you a blood test reading to determine it.

By your anology Essendon could do the same and we could blood test them?

Oh wait they passed that with no results shown,...........


look im just saying there is no defifintive proof essendon took tb4 until it all comes out, so at this point its fairly likely they are innocent.

 

[fishardansin]

If ASADA can show that the only Thymosin it could possibly have been is TB4, they have a case.

All the players have to show is the invoices for any other Thymosin and they're safe.

Pretty simple don't you think?

People keep repeating this, however, it seems pretty clear to me that Essendon do believe it was TA1 and feel their evidence supports that. All there is that is contrary to that is that one batch which ASADA thinks was TB4 .. and Essendon doesn't even think was at the club.