Opinion 2017 Draft Discussion - Pick 3 - Poll added

[DangerousD]

Do we still get to match offers in the rookie draft for Hickmont? Can someone educate me please.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Lang is a stretch, not Balic. Balic for pick 74, if at all.

And just like that, I'm much less happy with the Kennedy trade.

Impossible to please.

Balic for 56 is fair in my book, especially if 74 gets us Hickmott after any bid from 50 onwards anyway. Lang...yeah, it probably takes a bit more after his efforts on the weekend, and it could well be that another good game (or two?), and the offloading of Menzel and/or Motlop, he ends up staying on at Geelong for a few more years.

Turning Gibbs into Kennedy and 24 is good business I reckon. Kennedy taken at 12 or 13 in a stronger draft, fits our needs and is in the sweet spot for age. 24 gets us a reasonable mid prospect this year, or if we don't like the options we can always trade it - perhaps for a future second round pick if we like next year's draft a lot.

Lose Gibbs.
Bring in Rockliff and Kennedy as immediate starts.
Bring in one of Rayner/LDU who should play as early and as often as prudence allows.
Bring in Balic as a potential first round starter (more likely he works into it through the VFL).
Cycle our lower end with Pick 24 (O'Brien, Murphy?), Pick 38 (Giro, or someone else around this mark?), Pick 74 (Hickmott).
Top up with a rookie or two (Penrith + ruckman).

It's not as glamourous as our last few off-seasons, but it improves our Round 1 squad, adds a top 3 pick, and still brings in another 5-6 young players to allow the list turnover to continue.

Substitute some names in if you want, how would you draft if we had the following:

OUT: Gibbs
IN: Kennedy +
Pick 3:
Pick 24:
Pick 38:
Pick 56:
Pick 74:
Rookie 1:
Rookie 2:
FA: Rockliff

 

[Neadsy83]

Giro is wildly speculative at 38 IMO, and I'd be pretty stoked if we got Kennedy for that small a down trade.

Maybe 38 is slighly high for Giro, but I do rate the kid. He averaged 24 possessions at the champs and stood out against Vic Metro and the Allies. Has played 11 reserves games for Norwood and been in the best players 8 times. Also a really nice kick and moves well, if he was available at 56 I wouldn't hesitate.

 

[Jimmae]

OUT: Gibbs
IN: Kennedy +
Pick 3:
Pick 24:
Pick 38:
Pick 56:
Pick 74:
Rookie 1:
Rookie 2:
FA: Rockliff

Pick 3: LDU or D.Fogarty, maybe Cerra.
Pick 24: Bonar
Pick 38: Patmore
Pick 56: Tim Kelly
Pick 74: Roughsedge
Rookie 1: 17-20 year old ruck prospect
Rookie 2: Penrith (cat B)

If it went down that way, they'd have to tackle me outside the door the next day to stop me from giving SOS a hug.

Do we still get to match offers in the rookie draft for Hickmont? Can someone educate me please.

If he's still there, we get to pre-list him as Category A at the conclusion of the PSD.

For academy kids, you get to pre-list them as Category B.

 

[Neadsy83]

OUT: Gibbs
IN: Kennedy +
Pick 3: Stephenson
Pick 24: L.O'Brien
Pick 38: (Lang)
Pick 56: Giro/Kelly
Pick 74: Meek
Rookie 1: Penrith
Rookie 2: Hickmott
PSD: Balic
FA: Rockliff

 

[HARKER]

Which is exactly why he is a reach at 3. We need a genuine bonafide quality inside midfielder HARKER. We're not in a position to punt on wannabes. I see a lot of "if Rayner this, if Coffield that", rather than "Rayner is this, Coffield is that". At Pick 3 I expect a known known with plenty of upside. For me it's Cerra 1st or Dow 2nd. I see both Coffield & Brayshaw in the 8-12 range.

I normally would have agreed with this and by far and large do, but the last couple of years has shown-up us and others, adopting a broader approach.

Weitering was earmarked to be our swing-man and not just a back-man.
CCurnow played mostly forward but was always viewed to be someone who could go into the mid-field for us.
McGrath went as #1 last year and played most of his football as a back-man, yet will clearly go into the midfield eventually.

That's a small sample but recruiters are armed with a lot more information than what's available to us.
What I meant about Coffield is that he has good movement, speed and awareness in traffic, along with relatively good disposal along with being close enough to be called a bottom-ager with a late October birthdate that may take a little more time to grow into his body. Maybe..

 

[Jimmae]

I normally would have agreed with this and by far and large do, but the last couple of years has shown-up us and others, adopting a broader approach.

Weitering was earmarked to be our swing-man and not just a back-man.
CCurnow played mostly forward but was always viewed to be someone who could go into the mid-field for us.
McGrath went as #1 last year and played most of his football as a back-man, yet will clearly go into the midfield eventually.

That's a small sample but recruiters are armed with a lot more information than what's available to us.
What I meant about Coffield is that he has good movement, speed and awareness in traffic, along with relatively good disposal along with being close enough to be called a bottom-ager with a late October birthdate that may take a little more time to grow into his body. Maybe..

I took TSG's comments to mean statements like:

'If Rayner can play another 40 minutes at AFL intensity then...'
'If Coffield can put on 10 kgs and successfully move to midfield then...'

Weitering, Charlie and McGrath all played those roles successfully and consistently at junior level when called upon. That's the difference.

 

[HARKER]

Weitering, Charlie and McGrath all played those roles successfully and consistently at junior level when called upon. That's the difference.

I didn't track those players you've mentioned from their under 12's any more than that ones I raised, so......
All we have as arm-chair recruiters is to look at players' traits and take them to what we see as being an end result.
It's all a matter of fumbling around with certain aspects of what you see and try and get a read on where you feel the end result will take you.

Dangerfield went at #10 in his draft, in '07 and Rance at #18
Beams went at #29 and Hannebery at #30 the following year
Fyfe went at #20 the year after etc.....

Everyone will have an opinion, but the trick is not to look at the now, but to see the future. Get that right and you'll be an A-Grade recruiter.

 

[Pafloyul]

I normally would have agreed with this and by far and large do, but the last couple of years has shown-up us and others, adopting a broader approach.

Weitering was earmarked to be our swing-man and not just a back-man.
CCurnow played mostly forward but was always viewed to be someone who could go into the mid-field for us.
McGrath went as #1 last year and played most of his football as a back-man, yet will clearly go into the midfield eventually.

That's a small sample but recruiters are armed with a lot more information than what's available to us.
What I meant about Coffield is that he has good movement, speed and awareness in traffic, along with relatively good disposal along with being close enough to be called a bottom-ager with a late October birthdate that may take a little more time to grow into his body. Maybe..

Yeah, there are plenty of examples of players who fans and recruiters have been a bit cautious about because of doubts over where they fit into a side. Some have turned out to be the best players in their draft year. There's too much pressure not to get the high picks wrong which doesn't leave much room to take a risk on 'upside'. With the standouts not being as obvious this year, I'd love to turn pick 3 into two mid first rounders.

 

[Toddski]

I very much see Cerra in a Carlton guernsey.

It'll look real good.

I struggle to see the upside to be honest. Vanilla player. Would be appalled if we used a top 3 pick on Cerra.

 

[GoBlues!]

Cameron seems to be a favourite, you could say he's a Rayner away train......or maybe not.

 

[Sector 7G]

I didn't track those players you've mentioned from their under 12's any more than that ones I raised, so......
All we have as arm-chair recruiters is to look at players' traits and take them to what we see as being an end result.
It's all a matter of fumbling around with certain aspects of what you see and try and get a read on where you feel the end result will take you.

Dangerfield went at #10 in his draft, in '07 and Rance at #18
Beams went at #29 and Hannebery at #30 the following year
Fyfe went at #20 the year after etc.....

Everyone will have an opinion, but the trick is not to look at the now, but to see the future. Get that right and you'll be an A-Grade recruiter.

I think the issue is with pick 3 you don't want to be taking a chance on a player hoping he will become something. I want a player who has shown he is accomplished at a position we need. For every Dangerfield there are plenty of Menzel,JOK and Lennons. Players who were supposed to develop from flankers into midfielders as if playing in the midfield is an easy thing to learn.

 

[La Dispute]

Yeh it's pretty reductive saying if he's not a pure mid don't draft, especially if we add Kennedy, Rockliff and retain Gibbs.

No doubt there are arguments against taking Rayner. I don't think his ceiling is far bigger than LDU or Fogarty, but he's a gun, and I think he'll flourish at AFL level with some conditioning.

 

[La Dispute]

I think the issue is with pick 3 you don't want to be taking a chance on a player hoping he will become something. I want a player who has shown he is accomplished at a position we need. For every Dangerfield there are plenty of Menzel,JOK and Lennons. Players who were supposed to develop from flankers into midfielders as if playing in the midfield is an easy thing to learn.

Or Toumpas, Polec, O'Rourke, Aish, Lucas...

 

[Pafloyul]

Or Toumpas, Polec, O'Rourke, Aish, Lucas...

We could add Pendlebury and Bontempelli on to the 'plus' list.

 

[HARKER]

I think the issue is with pick 3 you don't want to be taking a chance on a player hoping he will become something. I want a player who has shown he is accomplished at a position we need. For every Dangerfield there are plenty of Menzel,JOK and Lennons. Players who were supposed to develop from flankers into midfielders as if playing in the midfield is an easy thing to learn.

Not going to argue with the basic premise of what you're saying, but there's little to excite for the first few rated players this year.
It may just be a good year to project and take what may be seen to be a chance.

 

[Sector 7G]

Or Toumpas, Polec, O'Rourke, Aish, Lucas...

Toumpas, Aish, Lucas were all midfielders that had low contested possession counts. They are why I don't want Lochie O"Brien

I didn't watch Polec in U18, but while he is an outside player that gives Port the spark when they win (which is normally against poor sides)

 

[reubsblues]

I'd like Rayner at 3 and Fogarty at 10 if we loose gibbs off

**** yeah

 

[La Dispute]

We could add Pendlebury and Bontempelli on the 'plus' list.

And a few others.

Highly tauted midfielders get taken every year and some end up disappointing.

This is why I'm very sketchy on drafting Cerra and can see why others don't want Dow.

 

[La Dispute]

Toumpas, Aish, Lucas were all midfielders that had low contested possession counts. They are why I don't want Lochie O"Brien

I dont watch Polec in U18, but while he is an outside player that gives Port the spark when they win (which is normally against poor sides)

It's more the lack of hurt factor with those guys.

Polec's a conditional footballer. Different from the aforementioned, but I wouldn't use a Top 5 pick on him.

 

[Mr_Plow]

I struggle to see the upside to be honest. Vanilla player. Would be appalled if we used a top 3 pick on Cerra.

I just see a player that can kick on video.

 

[Pafloyul]

And a few others.

Highly tauted midfielders get taken every year and some end up disappointing.

This is why I'm very sketchy on drafting Cerra and can see why others don't want Dow.

Yeah, I'm nonplussed on the idea that we have to take a 'pure' mid.

 

[La Dispute]

I just see a player that can kick on video.

His kicking is so overrated it's not funny - especially for a potential top 5 kick. Watching his highlights, the amount of time he 'almost' hits a target is quite incredible. Has an affinity for the big floating drop punt too.

I'm keen to see him in the AA game to get some sort of validation either way though.

 

[La Dispute]

His clearance work is very good though.

 

[HBF]

A former recruiter mate of mine said he has elements of Heeney, I thought that was a close comparison.

I'd be happy with any of those 3.