Next broadcast rights deal = $1,000,000,000?

Dont be a lemon · Dec 30, 2007

At least, according to the intellectual heavyweights at The Daily Telegraph:

Channel 9 will make TV bid

By Jon Ralph

December 18, 2007 12:00am

THE AFL's stunning prosperity seems assured for the next decade, with Channel 9 certain to bid for the next television rights amid predictions of a five-year $1 billion term.

There had been speculation the death of sports lover Kerry Packer and Nine's new ownership structure might see the network decide to opt out of the AFL rights race.

The network has this year slashed costs in all departments under majority ownership from private equity firm CVC Asia Pacific.

However Nine insiders say the network has already considered its options and will throw its resources at the rights, which could be decided much earlier than the end of this deal, which expires after the 2012 season.

Frenzied bidding for the rights would ensure the AFL could continue its expansion plans into Queensland and Sydney, while still funding the 16 existing sides.

While anti-siphoning rules mean Foxtel cannot seal a deal for all eight games, then sell off some games to rivals, it can still be a key player in negotiations.

That would see the rights rise again, possibly as high as the magical $1 billion mark during five seasons.

The Foxtel-Nine deal for the 2012 Olympic Games in the British capital London is considered the prototype for a prospective AFL deal.

The AFL could also boost its broadcast value by selling off the rights in individual packages, dividing Friday nights, Saturdays and Sundays.

There will be no first and last rights agreement, which in 2006 allowed Seven to usurp Nine, meaning the highest bid will win.

Should Nine and Foxtel work together for the rights, they could then farm off several games to another network, likely to be Channel 10.

The AFL would be expected to keep one network out of telecasting football to increase competition and ensure the value of its TV rights remained high.

In the days before his death in December 2005, Packer signed off on a monster bid from Nine, but Seven and Ten soon matched it.

It has left Nine frozen out of the AFL market. But after losing the ratings for the first time this year, it is determined to win back rights to a game that is a ratings bonanza.

Last month Nine spent up on a $110 million deal that will see it telecast the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics and the 2012 London Olympics.

New boss David Gyngell presented the deal to the IOC, but Nine powerbrokers Eddie McGuire and Jeff Browne were also integral to the deal.

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22942725-5001023,00.html

As you can imagine, the nuffies at leagueunlimited.com have gone bananas http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/showthread.php?t=189581

So, do you think it's realistic?

Shane Hird · Dec 30, 2007

The head honchos at AFL house will soon see their dreams come true and have the money to build a retractable roof over the MCG and also the funds to cut through the concrete slab under the league's show case ground and put the Dome on a giant barge and tow it around Australia playing H&A matches between Freo and Hawthorn. :thumbsu:

sabby · Dec 30, 2007

I hope 9 doesn’t get the right they already have NRL which will take precedence in Sydney so I will never see live AFL games

FOOOOTY · Dec 30, 2007

Nobby8 said:
put the Dome on a giant barge and tow it around Australia playing H&A matches between Freo and Hawthorn.

What are we waiting for!

Tiger_Of_Old · Dec 30, 2007

Pencil it in now.Ch9/Foxtel as the winning bidders.Ch7,s relationship was strained enough before the start of the season.Its now at an all time low after that "Drug Story".Unless there is a huge turn around i can see ch7,s chances next to zilch of securing the next rights.Ego will then prevent them from doing any deals with ch9 or foxtel for games while Ch 10 more or less burnt any bridges with ch9 when they jumped into bed with Ch7 last time round.

ausfatcat · Dec 30, 2007

tiger of old said:
Pencil it in now.Ch9/Foxtel as the winning bidders.Ch7,s relationship was strained enough before the start of the season.Its now at an all time low after that "Drug Story".Unless there is a huge turn around i can see ch7,s chances next to zilch of securing the next rights.Ego will then prevent them from doing any deals with ch9 or foxtel for games while Ch 10 more or less burnt any bridges with ch9 when they jumped into bed with Ch7 last time round.

The bidding is to do with dollar terms only, 7 has the right to match ch 9's bid and win regardless of the relationship with the AFL. Also on that forum above they are delusional. They think the NRL has more viewers, someone even said they have 4 out of the 5 top rating shows for the year. WTF are they just pulling this stuff out of their arses?

Father Jack · Dec 30, 2007

ausfatcat said:
The bidding is to do with dollar terms only, 7 has the right to match ch 9's bid and win regardless of the relationship with the AFL.

I thought that particular deal had expired?

ausfatcat · Dec 30, 2007

I don't think so, it may have anther round to go. Also someone should post this over at the other forum considering they keep stating more people watch the NRL grandfinal than the AFL one, As for some reason I can't post there.

AFL NRL

2007 = 2.563 2.422
2006 = 3.145 2.553
2005 = 3.386 2.563
2004 = 2.796 2.107
2003 = 2.966 2.352
2002 = 2.626 2.177
2001 = 2.604 2.097

ausfatcat · Dec 30, 2007

Also note the top ten shows this year

1. AFL: Grand Final Ten 2.563
2. Tennis: Australian Open – Men’s Final Seven 2.442
3. Rugby League: Grand Final Nine 2.422
4. AFL: Grand Final – Wrap-up Ten 2.387
5. Tennis: Australian Open – Men’s Final Presentation Seven 2.344
6. Cricket: Australia v England 20/20 Nine 2.306
7. Dancing with the Stars 6 – Final Seven 2.199
8. Horse Racing: The Melbourne Cup Seven 2.191
9. Kath & Kim (series average) Seven 2.128
10. The Biggest Loser – Final Ten 2.023

Two are related to the AFL grandfinal, one to NRL

Tiger_Of_Old · Dec 30, 2007

ausfatcat said:
The bidding is to do with dollar terms only, 7 has the right to match ch 9's bid and win regardless of the relationship with the AFL.

That clause expired after the last rights.The AFL will make sure they keep ch7/10 interested so they do get top dollar however the writing is already on the wall.

ausfatcat · Dec 30, 2007

If thats the case then looks like CH 9 will be back

thatday · Dec 30, 2007

Captain Afterworld said:
As you can imagine, the nuffies at leagueunlimited.com have gone bananas http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/showthread.php?t=189581

My IQ just went down 20 points after reading that dribble, they have no idea what they are talking about.

Funkalicous · Dec 30, 2007

Could this mean the return of Fox Footy?

Hope so!

Sucks for FTA though. Channel 9 have 2 RL games to get through on a Friday night. That's not good for AFL in QLD and NSW.

erical · Dec 30, 2007

Damn it!

That means North and the Bulldogs and Melbourne will be propped up for another 10 years :thumbsdown:

Chasing the Dream · Dec 30, 2007

Funkalicous said:
Could this mean the return of Fox Footy? Hope so!

Sucks for FTA though. Channel 9 have 2 RL games to get through on a Friday night. That's not good for AFL in QLD and NSW.

With HDTV, when will multi channels be given the go ahead? That may be the answer to the problems of Friday Night Footy.

I recently read that Ch 7 would trial some programs on 7HD before they are placed on the regular Ch7. Will this mean that Ch9 may show RL and say a second Ch 9 station the AFL. Having just flicked through my digital channels, NBN already have a second channel there, and seven have 3.

Really not sure if or when that will be possible.

Hicham · Dec 30, 2007

Ausfatcat, they're half right as are you. If they said that out of the football codes they took 4 out of the top 5 then they'd be right.

As is common place on BF your sample (Oztam) dismisses the presence of a good 7-8 million Australians. Largely due to the fact that there are no AFL teams outside Oztam markets, so its understandable.

Here are the standings:

http://www.thinktv.com.au//Media/Stats_&_Graphs/Top_Programs/Top_50_Programs_2007_Survey10.pdf

Australia wide: Rugby League takes 2 of the top 5 spots - NRL Grand Final, ARL State of Origin I.

Oztam 5 city: Rugby League takes 1 of the top 5 spots - NRL Grand Final.

Regional: Rugby League takes all top 5 spots (infact 11 of the top 13) - NRL Grand Final, ARL SOO's I and II, ARL SOO post match I and II.

The most watched FTA program in 2007 was actually the NRL Grand Final, with the Open Tennis second, AFL Grand Final third, 20/20 against the Poms fourth and the first ARL SOO in fifth.

Back to the billion dollar issue, perhaps Nine are getting in early and are going to play Seven as Kerry did last time and make them pay well over top dollar? Sensational for the AFL, but will put another huge hole in Seven's wallet. Getting a particular product would likley play second fiddle to the prospect of damaging your main rival.

Fire · Dec 30, 2007

erical said:
Damn it!
That means North and the Bulldogs and Melbourne will be propped up for another 10 years

Mate, someone needs to reassess their priorities in life.

Cousin Jed · Dec 30, 2007

1 Billion Dollars?

Chasing the Dream said:
With HDTV, when will multi channels be given the go ahead? That may be the answer to the problems of Friday Night Footy.

I recently read that Ch 7 would trial some programs on 7HD before they are placed on the regular Ch7. Will this mean that Ch9 may show RL and say a second Ch 9 station the AFL. Having just flicked through my digital channels, NBN already have a second channel there, and seven have 3.

Really not sure if or when that will be possible.

HD TV Has just recently started. All networks will have HDtv channels running by mid next year. It's effect on the next rights could be interesting. Not sure how it all works though as I think fully digital tv starts the year after the next lot of AFL rights start.

wally funk · Dec 30, 2007

let's say hypothetically, ch9 pulled a billion dollars out of its rear end, they could broadcast all eight games live thru it having at least 1 digi channel on top of its normal one? it boggles the mind, eh?

seanoff · Dec 30, 2007

CH9 will not broadcast all 8 games (this is fairytale stuff folks, the market isn't there for all 8 games on FTA)

If it goes it will be a Ch9/Fox Sports 4/4 or 3/5 deal.

9 will take a Fri night (maybe SBS or 513 in the northern states)

The AFL might split the rights much like the NFL in the US.

So Friday night is a standalone package

with a 3/ 4 or 2 /5 game packages for the Sat and Sun games

I can see sunday as 12pm 9 (live), 1.30pm Fox (live), 3.00pm 9 (live), 4.30pm Fox (live).

and then the minor finals as a package with the GF as a separate single game package.

One thing about 9 is that they are going back to covering games live. The first NRL Fri night game is now live. They have discovered people like watching their sport live. (shocking)

ausfatcat · Dec 30, 2007

Hicham said:
Ausfatcat, they're half right as are you. If they said that out of the football codes they took 4 out of the top 5 then they'd be right.

As is common place on BF your sample (Oztam) dismisses the presence of a good 7-8 million Australians. Largely due to the fact that there are no AFL teams outside Oztam markets, so its understandable.

Here are the standings:

http://www.thinktv.com.au//Media/Stats_&_Graphs/Top_Programs/Top_50_Programs_2007_Survey10.pdf

Australia wide: Rugby League takes 2 of the top 5 spots - NRL Grand Final, ARL State of Origin I.

Oztam 5 city: Rugby League takes 1 of the top 5 spots - NRL Grand Final.

Regional: Rugby League takes all top 5 spots (infact 11 of the top 13) - NRL Grand Final, ARL SOO's I and II, ARL SOO post match I and II.

The most watched FTA program in 2007 was actually the NRL Grand Final, with the Open Tennis second, AFL Grand Final third, 20/20 against the Poms fourth and the first ARL SOO in fifth.

Back to the billion dollar issue, perhaps Nine are getting in early and are going to play Seven as Kerry did last time and make them pay well over top dollar? Sensational for the AFL, but will put another huge hole in Seven's wallet. Getting a particular product would likley play second fiddle to the prospect of damaging your main rival.

I found three national tv ratings from different companies, they all had the AFL granny ahead of the NRL, I will post links once I find them again

ausfatcat · Dec 30, 2007

double post sorry

seanoff · Dec 30, 2007

Ausfatcat, I suspect your links are METRO only.

http://www.thinktv.com.au/media/Media_Releases/2007_Survey_8_-_Ratings_Report.pdf

The regional stats are heavily in favour of the NRL GF (2:1 essentially)

Hicham · Dec 30, 2007

seanoff said:
Ausfatcat, I suspect your links are METRO only.

http://www.thinktv.com.au/media/Media_Releases/2007_Survey_8_-_Ratings_Report.pdf

The regional stats are heavily in favour of the NRL GF (2:1 essentially)

^Yep. That's where you're getting your numbers from Ausfatcat. Many agencies, as you've seen, will only publish Oztam ratings (ie. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth) as they make up 5 of the top 6 TV markets in the country and therefore are where the majority of advertising is directed. If you're using ratings to gauge a national audience for a discussion like this, however, obviously you'd use the national figures not just figures from a mere 5 cities.

seanoff said:
CH9 will not broadcast all 8 games (this is fairytale stuff folks, the market isn't there for all 8 games on FTA)

Agreed.

DannyJames13 · Dec 30, 2007

tiger of old said:
Pencil it in now.Ch9/Foxtel as the winning bidders.Ch7,s relationship was strained enough before the start of the season.Its now at an all time low after that "Drug Story".Unless there is a huge turn around i can see ch7,s chances next to zilch of securing the next rights.Ego will then prevent them from doing any deals with ch9 or foxtel for games while Ch 10 more or less burnt any bridges with ch9 when they jumped into bed with Ch7 last time round.

Gees the naivety of some posters on here bugs me on here some times. I know some of you are 15 y/o but If you are gonna mouth off have some perspective.

The Drug story has next to zero effect. If anything it creates more drama which means more eyes, which means more $.

Ego will have nothing do do with it, and channel 10 could have slept with channel 9's wife and channel 9, who has 3 mistress's will say business is business when it comes time do do the deal.

And hate to break it to you, but... There is no pot of gold at the end fo the rainbow, and the biggie. Yeah you got it, no easter Bunny either

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