Opinion 2017 Draft Discussion - Pick 3 - Poll added

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

In a perfect world the best available player at our pick would be a genuine midfielder but hypothetically if it comes down to a decision of taking the best talent (Rayner) or the third best pure midfielder than I really hope we go with Rayner.

 

[Sector 7G]

Not going to argue with the basic premise of what you're saying, but there's little to excite for the first few rated players this year.
It may just be a good year to project and take what may be seen to be a chance.

I too have been underwhelmed with what I have seen from the top half dozen, I think I would rather hope that LDU becomes Ollie Wines than hope Rayner can improve his tank not just so he can run out a U18 game in the middle but get it to an AFL level.

Without the preformed external opinions of who we should take ( I have only watched a few games at the champs)I would be all over Brayshaw with our pick. If we are projecting on what could be I would take Stephenson

 

[Arr0w]

Which is exactly why he is a reach at 3. We need a genuine bonafide quality inside midfielder HARKER. We're not in a position to punt on wannabes. I see a lot of "if Rayner this, if Coffield that", rather than "Rayner is this, Coffield is that". At Pick 3 I expect a known known with plenty of upside. For me it's Cerra 1st or Dow 2nd. I see both Coffield & Brayshaw in the 8-12 range.

Agree with your analysis, but I think recruiters will regret if they let Brayshaw slide outside the top 8

 

[agro]

I wouldn't be getting to excited with Pick 3 just yet.

If Brisbane let go of Rockliff, they wouldn't be doing it unless they were "very certain" of first round compensation.

 

[Azul]

I think the issue is with pick 3 you don't want to be taking a chance on a player hoping he will become something. I want a player who has shown he is accomplished at a position we need. For every Dangerfield there are plenty of Menzel,JOK and Lennons.

So for the "experts", who out of the 'top 10' is most likely to be a bust?

Don't draft that kid!

 

[Arr0w]

Pick 3: LDU or D.Fogarty, maybe Cerra.
Pick 24: Bonar
Pick 38: Patmore
Pick 56: Tim Kelly
Pick 74: Roughsedge
Rookie 1: 17-20 year old ruck prospect
Rookie 2: Penrith (cat B)

LDU seems to be overrated by most

Bonar would be a surprise at 24

Patmore is a turnover king, would rather steer clear

Kelly is a late 2nd, think he will be gone by 56. (will finish top 3 sandover)

Roughsedge is a steal at 74

 

[Arr0w]

Makes me laugh when people suggest that Cerra is vanilla. Will have good numbers, hurt you with disposals with either foot and can genuinely rest forward, taking contested marks and kick goals

 

[Arr0w]

Watching the WAFL prelim today got me thinking about Liam Ryan. I know there were massive concerns about his running capabilities last year but after the year he has just had he would have to be a certainty to be drafted this year. His talent is undeniable.

Interested in the views of our avid draft watchers like Arr0w LemmingMaster The Smoking Gun or anyone else who follows the draft of where he is likely to fall? Also Kelly from South Freo?

Liam Ryan has the skill to make it at the next level. My concern is that he will struggle with the demands of an AFL environment. From all reports, Liam has been known to run late or miss training, as well as recovery sessions. Plays the game for the enjoyment and for me would be a flight risk for a WA club, let alone traveling interstate. Based on that, being an interstate club, would not use a pick within the 1st 4 rounds. Rate him a better footballer than Kelly.

Kelly is way more dedicated. Reminds me of the Hill brothers, with a propensity to get involved within traffic. Also have concerns with him being a flight risk, given he has 3 young children. Having said that, would expect WA clubs to select him between picks 25 - 55

 

[Arr0w]

His kicking is so overrated it's not funny - especially for a potential top 5 kick. Watching his highlights, the amount of time he 'almost' hits a target is quite incredible. Has an affinity for the big floating drop punt too.

I'm keen to see him in the AA game to get some sort of validation either way though.

How did you rate his kicking in the game against WA?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Makes me laugh when people suggest that Cerra is vanilla. Will have good numbers, hurt you with disposals with either foot and can genuinely rest forward, taking contested marks and kick goals

Not with you on the contested marking.

 

[DangerousD]

If he's still there, we get to pre-list him as Category A at the conclusion of the PSD.

For academy kids, you get to pre-list them as Category B.

He's not on your list above, do you think he will be left out?

 

[Arr0w]

Not with you on the contested marking.

Unless you have seen him live, you wouldn't be

 

[mediumsizered]

North, Brisbane, Gold Coast, ??? Not sure which other teams we will potentially be below us next year.
Rome was not built in a day, we've had a lot of turnover in our list and we have to be realistic about our progression.

This was the same type of thing which was proffered as a reason why we would be finishing last in 2017.

One might suggest that with Cripps & Curnow (& even Marchbank) in the side, some of those close losses we had in the 2nd half of the season would have been wins & would have better reflected where we are at in our rebuild.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Looks to have midfield attributes to me and even if he's not deemed to be for us, someone will get themselves a quality player here.

Cerra & Dow look a little vanilla to me and right now, I'd sooner Brayshaw than either of those two. We'll see, of course.

No one has pumped Andrew Brayshaw more than me. You know that, but Cerra is on another level as an inside mid. If he's you're version of vanilla, then no condiment is required.

I normally would have agreed with this and by far and large do, but the last couple of years has shown-up us and others, adopting a broader approach.

That's a small sample but recruiters are armed with a lot more information than what's available to us.
What I meant about Coffield is that he has good movement, speed and awareness in traffic, along with relatively good disposal along with being close enough to be called a bottom-ager with a late October birthdate that may take a little more time to grow into his body. Maybe..

There you go again......



Having said that HARKER unless people have different views it doesn't make the rest of us look at other options and as why they chose them.

I took TSG's comments to mean statements like:

'If Rayner can play another 40 minutes at AFL intensity then...'
'If Coffield can put on 10 kgs and successfully move to midfield then...'

Weitering, Charlie and McGrath all played those roles successfully and consistently at junior level when called upon. That's the difference.

^^^This.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Not with you on the contested marking.

Oh I am. Not the type to be standing on someone's head, but uses his body well to protect the drop zone while moving his opponent under the ball. Very smart operator.

 

[ForYouBlue]

Fogarty, LDU or Dow in no particular order, is my uneducated wish list that none of you need or want.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Watching the WAFL prelim today got me thinking about Liam Ryan. I know there were massive concerns about his running capabilities last year but after the year he has just had he would have to be a certainty to be drafted this year. His talent is undeniable.

Interested in the views of our avid draft watchers like Arr0w LemmingMaster The Smoking Gun or anyone else who follows the draft of where he is likely to fall? Also Kelly from South Freo?

Talent alone won't cut it if you want to make it as an professional AFL footballer. Sometimes we wouldn't be doing the right thing by the person to drag them away from an environment they're comfortable in and in Ryan's case I think AFL clubs have done the right thing by recognising this.

There are also the cases where people just aren't that fussed about the bright lights of AFL footy. Stephen Oliver had the talent to be a brilliant KPF, perhaps as good as Kernaghan, but turned his back on AFL footy, preferring to become a bush legend. Just the way it goes.

 

[Boltfromtheblue]

Have to go with a guy called Constable just so we can do the...ello ello ello...what ave we ere?

 

[katmanblue]

Have to go with a guy called Constable just so we can do the...ello ello ello...what ave we ere?

Nothing too see here. Move along.

 

[Pafloyul]

This was the same type of thing which was proffered as a reason why we would be finishing last in 2017.

One might suggest that with Cripps & Curnow (& even Marchbank) in the side, some of those close losses we had in the 2nd half of the season would have been wins & would have better reflected where we are at in our rebuild.

Well, what's the rush, then?

 

[Pafloyul]

Nothing too see here. Move along.

There's a player called Sandtrooper?

 

[HARKER]

No one has pumped Andrew Brayshaw more than me. You know that, but Cerra is on another level as an inside mid. If he's you're version of vanilla, then no condiment is required.


There you go again......

View attachment 417519

Having said that HARKER unless people have different views it doesn't make the rest of us look at other options and as why they chose them.


^^^This.

It's all maybe's to me. Just different degrees of maybe.

I go to the drafts board and see wildly varying opinions in who may go/should go at #1.
We have Rayner, Fogarty and Stephenson across the four mainstays and then others with Dow and I'm sure everyone has their reasons for claiming their man to be the best man, as I'm sure most here would also.

I maintain that it's one thing to look at what's happening in the now and a very different and much more difficult thing to project the quality of the player, into the future. Somehow this draft feels to me that there will be some wilder than usual projecting........maybe.

 

[HARKER]

I too have been underwhelmed with what I have seen from the top half dozen, I think I would rather hope that LDU becomes Ollie Wines than hope Rayner can improve his tank not just so he can run out a U18 game in the middle but get it to an AFL level.

Without the preformed external opinions of who we should take ( I have only watched a few games at the champs)I would be all over Brayshaw with our pick. If we are projecting on what could be I would take Stephenson

Just at this stage, I'm not feeling a 'got to have him' player the way I did last year with McCluggage, SPS and Taranto.
Most of the highly-touted mids just seem a little ordinary and ordinary may have to do in this market, but I'd understand should SOS 'project' a little and not go the simple safest option. Maybe it will be Rayner, or maybe Stephenson or maybe even someone else we're not talking up as top 5, just yet.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Just at this stage, I'm not feeling a 'got to have him' player the way I did last year with McCluggage, SPS and Taranto.
Most of the highly-touted mids just seem a little ordinary and ordinary may have to do in this market, but I'd understand should SOS 'project' a little and not go the simple safest option. Maybe it will be Rayner, or maybe Stephenson or maybe even someone else we're not talking up as top 5, just yet.

Not sure if Taranto had moved up the predicted drafts this time last year?
IIRC , This time last year ...
McLuggage was the predicted No.1 and there was plenty of noise about McGrath and Ainsworth. Setterfield was mentioned as an equal No.1 ... Bowes was mentioned a bit. That SPS wanted to play in a Melbourne I don't think was publicly known then, and he was in the mix for Freo with English (Logue did well at combine and then came into the mix for Freo).
If Gibbs goes and we get a second high draft pick (let's say #10) together with our #4 (Brisbane compensation) and we also get Rockliff, then SOS is in a good position to get 2 good picks, something like Rayner/Dow/LDU/Cerra with the higher one and Brayshaw/Constable/Coffield/Fogarty/Stephenson with the second one.
What would Adelaide give for SOS not to take Fogarty?
We lose Gibbs but add Rockliff and 2 more midfielders.

 

[HARKER]

Not sure if Taranto had moved up the predicted drafts this time last year?
IIRC , This time last year ...
McLuggage was the predicted No.1 and there was plenty of noise about McGrath and Ainsworth. Setterfield was mentioned as an equal No.1 ... Bowes was mentioned a bit. That SPS wanted to play in a Melbourne I don't think was publicly known then, and he was in the mix for Freo with English (Logue did well at combine and then came into the mix for Freo).
If Gibbs goes and we get a second high draft pick (let's say #10) together with our #4 (Brisbane compensation) and we also get Rockliff, then SOS is in a good position to get 2 good picks, something like Rayner/Dow/LDU/Cerra with the higher one and Brayshaw/Constable/Coffield/Fogarty/Stephenson with the second one.
What would Adelaide give for SOS not to take Fogarty?
We lose Gibbs but add Rockliff and 2 more midfielders.

He hadn't but I liked him a lot, for us.
I liked Setterfield also, but he clearly had only the one possible destination.
This thread will definitely pick-up after the trade period, when we know for certain what we have in hand, going into the draft