Analysis 2023 Bloods' Performance Discussion

[bloodsbigot]

With the players we are loosing this year and they had so much influence last season , Reid , hicky , Franklin , paddy and older rampe.

Unless we have a big off season who thinks we have much more upside into the next few years?

We haven’t beaten anyone this season

Could potentially be bottom dwellers for a while

I thought the same thing when we lost Paul Kelly, Andrew Dunkley and Maxfield. We went on to win a premiership.

I thought the same thing when we lost Kirk, Dempster, Schneider and Barry Hall. We went on to win a premiership.

I thought the same when we lost McVeigh, Hannebery and Grundy. We went on to compete in a Grand Final.

As Carl Jung once said, "Don't hold onto anyone who's leaving, otherwise you won't meet the one who's coming."

We'll be fine if history is anything to go by.

 

[kickthething]

I’m bored this evening, so I thought I’d run a hypothetical.

10 seconds left, 2 points down & the Swans mark it 40 out, directly in front.

It’s a shot after the siren to win it!

I’ve ranked the Swans in terms of who I’d have the most confidence in to kick the winning goal.

In order from most confident to least:

1. Parker
2. Campbell
3. Florent
4. Gulden
5. McInerney
6. Papley
7. McDonald
8. Mills
9. Lloyd
10. Sheldrick
11. Chad Warner
12. Franklin
13. Blakey
14. Cunningham
15. Wicks
16. Armatey
17. Rampe
18. McLean
19. Rowbottom
20. McCartin
21. Fox
22. Heeney
23. A random drunk from Row 1.
24. Hayward

not bad you have me ranked 23rd

 

[mtooler]

That Mills, Reid or Heeney behind the ball stops us from getting blown away in games

True, and we have thrown away leads and turned them into losses doing it too many a time over the last decade or so.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I’m bored this evening, so I thought I’d run a hypothetical.

10 seconds left, 2 points down & the Swans mark it 40 out, directly in front.

It’s a shot after the siren to win it!

I’ve ranked the Swans in terms of who I’d have the most confidence in to kick the winning goal.

In order from most confident to least:

1. Parker
2. Campbell
3. Florent
4. Gulden
5. McInerney
6. Papley
7. McDonald
8. Mills
9. Lloyd
10. Sheldrick
11. Chad Warner
12. Franklin
13. Blakey
14. Cunningham
15. Wicks
16. Armatey
17. Rampe
18. McLean
19. Rowbottom
20. McCartin
21. Fox
22. Heeney
23. A random drunk from Row 1.
24. Hayward

21. Fox
22. Dunkley Snr
23. Kirk
??
25. Hayward
26. Heeney

 

[caesar88]

21. Fox
22. Dunkley Snr
23. Kirk
??
25. Hayward
26. Heeney

Stevie Wonder stiff not to get a mention above Hayward

 

[caesar88]

LONG POST INCOMING

Watching the best sides this year (ie Dees & Lions last night, Pies and Power), there are four main things I've noticed they all do that we don't do:

1. Keep their feet. An image emblazoned in my mind from this year has been Swans players inexplicably going to ground after giving the most minimal of efforts. I don't know if it's a lack of fitness or core strength that makes our balance suck, but we are taken out of contests too easily. These top sides are keeping balls moving and keeping themselves involved from contest to contest because they aren't falling over. (And on another note, when we do fall over, why do we take a year to get back up? These are professional, elite athletes yet they seem to show the strength and stamina of geriatrics playing a Legends exhibition match.)

2. Get arms free in tackles. Another image that's stuck in my memory from this year are Swans players being tackled and the ball being dead. Seriously when nearly every Swans player is tackled, that ball ain't coming out, and it's back to a ball-up, stoppage, clearance situation that it's been well-documented we're not great at. You've got to be able to keep a ball alive and not have an entire passage come undone because you've been tackled. It's a massive composure issue, because the great players almost expect they're going to be tackled, so they simply don't panic and then freak out and flop around like a fish on shore as soon as they're caught in a tackle. They get their arms free and keep the ball alive.

3. Gut run to present. Does anyone else feel like when watching the Swans this year that the TV might be working in slow-mo or something, because the players just aren't really moving that fast or with much urgency? And I'm not talking about individual efforts - ie. Blakey or Florent breaking lines off half back or Warner running into an open forward 50. I'm talking a wave of red & white jumpers surging forward. Collingwood, Port etc. always have that next option in the chain to keep the ball alive. We just never have that. Everything is kinda stagnant, and then we try and pull the trigger but the options aren't there, so we pull back and it's kinda stagnant again, and then rinse and repeat. I don't know if it's that our players don't have the trust in each other to have the confidence to present as the next option in a chain rather than hesitate and hang around the contest. Or maybe they're just not fit enough to gut run and surge forward.

4. Effective handball chains. I won't go into this one much because I've done so ad nauseam, plus it's basically a continuation of point number 3. We try to kick our way through opposition set-ups. The best teams run and carry by hand through opposition set-ups. Maybe our approach will work one day, but so far I'm not convinced it's the way to go at all.

You might notice all of the above pertains to 'keeping the ball/contest/play alive', and upon reflection, that I think has been our biggest issue this year. Just a lack of fluidity in our game plan, an ability to have several good, clean possessions in a row that lead to scoring opportunities. We've had some fantastic plays, games, and wins, but it feels like the bulk of them have been built on the back of players making something out of nothing, rather than fluid team plays.

I think it's for this reason that I don't buy into the "if we'd kicked straight here" or "if Florent's kick went through" talk much. I can absolutely see a very realistic alternative 2023 where we are in the top 8, even top 4 right now. I'd also feel like we're pretenders even if we were that high up on the ladder, because our footy just hasn't been convincing enough at all.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

LONG POST INCOMING

Watching the best sides this year (ie Dees & Lions last night, Pies and Power), there are four main things I've noticed they all do that we don't do:

1. Keep their feet. An image emblazoned in my mind from this year has been Swans players inexplicably going to ground after giving the most minimal of efforts. I don't know if it's a lack of fitness or core strength that makes our balance suck, but we are taken out of contests too easily. These top sides are keeping balls moving and keeping themselves involved from contest to contest because they aren't falling over. (And on another note, when we do fall over, why do we take a year to get back up? These are professional, elite athletes yet they seem to show the strength and stamina of geriatrics playing a Legends exhibition match.)

2. Get arms free in tackles. Another image that's stuck in my memory from this year are Swans players being tackled and the ball being dead. Seriously when nearly every Swans player is tackled, that ball ain't coming out, and it's back to a ball-up, stoppage, clearance situation that it's been well-documented we're not great at. You've got to be able to keep a ball alive and not have an entire passage come undone because you've been tackled. It's a massive composure issue, because the great players almost expect they're going to be tackled, so they simply don't panic and then freak out and flop around like a fish on shore as soon as they're caught in a tackle. They get their arms free and keep the ball alive.

3. Gut run to present. Does anyone else feel like when watching the Swans this year that the TV might be working in slow-mo or something, because the players just aren't really moving that fast or with much urgency? And I'm not talking about individual efforts - ie. Blakey or Florent breaking lines off half back or Warner running into an open forward 50. I'm talking a wave of red & white jumpers surging forward. Collingwood, Port etc. always have that next option in the chain to keep the ball alive. We just never have that. Everything is kinda stagnant, and then we try and pull the trigger but the options aren't there, so we pull back and it's kinda stagnant again, and then rinse and repeat. I don't know if it's that our players don't have the trust in each other to have the confidence to present as the next option in a chain rather than hesitate and hang around the contest. Or maybe they're just not fit enough to gut run and surge forward.

4. Effective handball chains. I won't go into this one much because I've done so ad nauseam, plus it's basically a continuation of point number 3. We try to kick our way through opposition set-ups. The best teams run and carry by hand through opposition set-ups. Maybe our approach will work one day, but so far I'm not convinced it's the way to go at all.

You might notice all of the above pertains to 'keeping the ball/contest/play alive', and upon reflection, that I think has been our biggest issue this year. Just a lack of fluidity in our game plan, an ability to have several good, clean possessions in a row that lead to scoring opportunities. We've had some fantastic plays, games, and wins, but it feels like the bulk of them have been built on the back of players making something out of nothing, rather than fluid team plays.

I think it's for this reason that I don't buy into the "if we'd kicked straight here" or "if Florent's kick went through" talk much. I can absolutely see a very realistic alternative 2023 where we are in the top 8, even top 4 right now. I'd also feel like we're pretenders even if we were that high up on the ladder, because our footy just hasn't been convincing enough at all.

What’s interesting is that at least your points 2, 3 and 4 were all strengths of the previous generation swans team. And I’d add the same too for midfield contested possessions, as per the stats in the previous post on our poor performance.

I think the dramatic fall away in our performance is due to two main factors. Firstly, our core team is young and yet to build the stamina and mental fortitude required. Secondly, we recruited lots of slight players who are good by foot but not so much by hand.

The good news is that these can be rectified by more time in the gym and on the training paddock.

If these issues are not at least largely on the mend by this time next year, then I think we can start being worried. One long offseason after a year that must be sure to burn, and a year to build combinations, should be enough to make good headway.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

What’s interesting is that at least your points 2, 3 and 4 were all strengths of the previous generation swans team. And I’d add the same too for midfield contested possessions, as per the stats in the previous post on our poor performance.

I think the dramatic fall away in our performance is due to two main factors. Firstly, our core team is young and yet to build the stamina and mental fortitude required. Secondly, we recruited lots of slight players who are good by foot but not so much by hand.

The good news is that these can be rectified by more time in the gym and on the training paddock.

If these issues are not at least largely on the mend by this time next year, then I think we can start being worried. One long offseason after a year that must be sure to burn, and a year to build combinations, should be enough to make good headway.

I actually think it’s a bit the opposite.

Our team certainly has young players, but also quite a few oldies who just aren’t very mobile.

And it’s the oldies that haven’t really contributed this year, for whatever reason.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I actually think it’s a bit the opposite.

Our team certainly has young players, but also quite a few oldies who just aren’t very mobile.

And it’s the oldies that haven’t really contributed this year, for whatever reason.

No doubt our slide is a bit of both.

 

[Dangas]

Amazing this Top 8, we have had a crap year yet currently 6 points behind 6th spot Bizarre.

 

[Kiama Chris]

LONG POST INCOMING

Watching the best sides this year (ie Dees & Lions last night, Pies and Power), there are four main things I've noticed they all do that we don't do:

1. Keep their feet. An image emblazoned in my mind from this year has been Swans players inexplicably going to ground after giving the most minimal of efforts. I don't know if it's a lack of fitness or core strength that makes our balance suck, but we are taken out of contests too easily. These top sides are keeping balls moving and keeping themselves involved from contest to contest because they aren't falling over. (And on another note, when we do fall over, why do we take a year to get back up? These are professional, elite athletes yet they seem to show the strength and stamina of geriatrics playing a Legends exhibition match.)

2. Get arms free in tackles. Another image that's stuck in my memory from this year are Swans players being tackled and the ball being dead. Seriously when nearly every Swans player is tackled, that ball ain't coming out, and it's back to a ball-up, stoppage, clearance situation that it's been well-documented we're not great at. You've got to be able to keep a ball alive and not have an entire passage come undone because you've been tackled. It's a massive composure issue, because the great players almost expect they're going to be tackled, so they simply don't panic and then freak out and flop around like a fish on shore as soon as they're caught in a tackle. They get their arms free and keep the ball alive.

3. Gut run to present. Does anyone else feel like when watching the Swans this year that the TV might be working in slow-mo or something, because the players just aren't really moving that fast or with much urgency? And I'm not talking about individual efforts - ie. Blakey or Florent breaking lines off half back or Warner running into an open forward 50. I'm talking a wave of red & white jumpers surging forward. Collingwood, Port etc. always have that next option in the chain to keep the ball alive. We just never have that. Everything is kinda stagnant, and then we try and pull the trigger but the options aren't there, so we pull back and it's kinda stagnant again, and then rinse and repeat. I don't know if it's that our players don't have the trust in each other to have the confidence to present as the next option in a chain rather than hesitate and hang around the contest. Or maybe they're just not fit enough to gut run and surge forward.

4. Effective handball chains. I won't go into this one much because I've done so ad nauseam, plus it's basically a continuation of point number 3. We try to kick our way through opposition set-ups. The best teams run and carry by hand through opposition set-ups. Maybe our approach will work one day, but so far I'm not convinced it's the way to go at all.

You might notice all of the above pertains to 'keeping the ball/contest/play alive', and upon reflection, that I think has been our biggest issue this year. Just a lack of fluidity in our game plan, an ability to have several good, clean possessions in a row that lead to scoring opportunities. We've had some fantastic plays, games, and wins, but it feels like the bulk of them have been built on the back of players making something out of nothing, rather than fluid team plays.

I think it's for this reason that I don't buy into the "if we'd kicked straight here" or "if Florent's kick went through" talk much. I can absolutely see a very realistic alternative 2023 where we are in the top 8, even top 4 right now. I'd also feel like we're pretenders even if we were that high up on the ladder, because our footy just hasn't been convincing enough at all.

Point 1 agree .
Point 2 most teams do one of three things when caught:
a) arms free handball
b) wrap around for the ball up
c) drop the ball
I agree we could be better at it but sometimes b) is the better option.
Points 3/4 agree we could do more to keep the opposition guessing. I wonder if we're afraid to risk too many bodies ahead of the ball. We do some short chains that look good but not that many. I also wonder if your point three is deliberate conservatism.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

No doubt our slide is a bit of both.

It's more than a slide tho.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

3 in the top 5 i dont know what to make of it.

Usually means your season has been a bit of a shambles and your odds on to be the bolter the following year.

What I hope it means is that the team is just about to turn the corner and storm home.

But brain says, with the amount of injuries we've had, we're stuck in chase mode and will eventually run out of fuel.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

O

Usually means your season has been a bit of a shambles and your odds on to be the bolter the following year.

What I hope it means is that the team is just about to turn the corner and storm home.

But brain says, with the amount of injuries we've had, we're stuck in chase mode and will eventually run out of fuel.

Oh crap, I just read the title and missed the fact that we appear 3 times. I note that 2017 & 2023 appear - both years following a GF loss. To me, it says something about our list management strategy. We're hovering there abouts, but not managing to break through.

The other thing I found interesting was a quote in the original thread: "3 of the top 4 are from this year and it’s different teams". This season seems to be a bit of an anomalous one, and I don't quite know what to make of it. Seems to suggest there are a few really good teams, and a few really poor teams, and a log jam of mediocre teams making up the numbers. I also think it may be a by-product of the AFL adjusting a team's fixture based on their finish the year prior. When you do that, you have the middle of the road teams playing each other. And the good teams playing each other, which creates a lot of 50/50 matches, the absolute cream rises to the top and then there's a long list of mid-table teams scrapping it out.

 

[BloodySwan]

General play our midfield is great. Blocks traffic, opens up space, we move from end to end among the best. In stoppages we fall apart.

Is this something we can fix with our stoppage setup? Or is it a personnel issue? No doubt some players are better than others but I feel like our players are strong enough, no reason we cannot dominate the bounce

 

[SeanM]

I feel our style of play might contribute to us fading late in games.

We try to play high intensity pressure all around the ground. Also try to play fast ball movement which requires attacking running and spread. So I feel we are going to struggle to keep that up for the whole game, even with better fitness.

 

[Nuggetz]

We're near the bottom of the table this year for clearance & contested possession differential compared to mid table last year.

Clearance 2023: -3.8 (17th) 2022: 0.9 (9th)
Contested possession 2023 : -3.5 (14th) 2022: 1.4 (8th)
Hit Outs 2023: -12.9 (17th) 2022: -7.6 (13th)

Big drop off. I'm guessing during our run that area has improved.

 

[The King!]

We have used quite a bit of luck recently

hope we saved some for finals

 

[Dubai Quacker]

We have used quite a bit of luck recently

hope we saved some for finals

Here’s my prediction:

Thursday Sept 14, 6.25pm AEST, teams and umpires announced for Swans vs St Kilda.

Umpires allocated:

Stevic
Meredith
Gianfagna

Luck runs out.

 

[the hypnotoad]

who'd have imagined, on the weekend geelong (premiers) beat us (their friggin bunnies!) by 93, that we'd be the one of us playing finals?

 

[The King!]

now to do something in them , making up the numbers would be a fail

5 wins to go