Preview 2023 Round 7 – Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants, Saturday, April 29, 2.10PM AEST, SCG

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Sep 6, 2012
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A bit disappointing to lose yesterday, but overall, I thought our effort was very good. We matched Brisbane goal for goal in the second half and won the last quarter without Sam Taylor. The game was basically lost in the stoppages – they outscored us there by 24 - and as feared, we had no answer to Charlie Cameron.

Kingsley was measured after the game. We are not playing inconsistently, and the important thing is to keep persisting with the game plan. The undercurrent is there.

With changes for this week, we’ll get Tom Green back but I reckon Ward is out for that sling tackle. I know the commentators were trying to downplay it but they never hold much sway with the MRP.

I would give Connor Idun a start as Taylor’s replacement, he had a good game against quality opposition and was second only to Haynes in intercept possessions.

XOH also played well although his disposal efficiency is still a concern. He can take Ward’s place at half-forward and see what else he can do near goal. Cadman has earned a start at full forward. A bit of height might trouble the Swans backline at the moment.

If he’s available, I would elevate Keeffe into the squad as he is versatile and his height and experience will come in handy.

FB: Nick Haynes, Connor Idun, Isaac Cumming
HB: Lachie Whitfield, Jack Buckley, Lachie Ash
C: Finn Callaghan, Josh Kelly, Tom Green
HF: Brent Daniels, Harry Himmelberg, Xavier O’Halloran
FF: Toby Greene, Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman
RR: Matt Flynn, Harry Perryman, Stephen Coniglio

Interchange: James Peatling, Lachlan Keeffe, Harry Rowston, Ryan Angwin

Emergencies: Jake Riccardi, Leek Allir, Toby Bedford, Josh Fahey

In: Tom Green, Lachlan Keefe
Out: Sam Taylor (injured), Callan Ward (suspended)

As for the Swans, they are coming off their biggest loss under John Longmire. It was an even bigger hiding than the GF. They only scored 3 points in the second half.

Longmire looked like a stunned mullet and it was one of the shortest pressers I’ve seen. They were under-strength with several key defenders missing, but there was more to it than that. They played like a rabble with major headspace problems. They seem to be on a precipice.

Time to get out that derby guernsey and head over to Big Brother’s place. If we stick to our game plan and persist, I reckon the Swans are there for the taking.

See you at the SCG.
 
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My team for the swans:

Cumming Aleer Haynes
Whitfield Buckley Ash
Callaghan green Angwin
Greene HH Daniels
Bedford Hogan Cadman

Flynn Coniglio kelly

Perryman idun XO Peatling

Sub Fahey

Out: Ward (susp) rowston Taylor Kennedy (inj)
In: Bedford Green Aleer Fahey
 
Depends who is likely to play for the Swans.
At this stage I’d probably go:
Cumming Keeffe Idun
Whitfield Buckley Haynes
Callaghan Cogs Angwin
Greene HH Cadman
Daniels Hogan Bedford

Flynn Perryman Green

Ash Peatling XOH Ward

If Swans go taller maybe also bring in Alleer or Briggs
 

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A shame we didn't play them this weekend.
Most importantly, our players will believe that if we play well we win, so I hope ( and know) we will bring great effort.
They will as well though.
 
OK, so Sam Taylor out (a massive loss, unfortunately), presumably Adam Kennedy (sub) out as well, and likely that Cal Ward is suspended for a week.

Tom Green to return from suspension, Toby Bedford available after a run in the 2s. Aleer possibly available, although he may need a longer run in VFL. Not sure on a prognosis for Keeffe who was held out, and I presume that Davis is a no go.

Angwin as a late replacement seems likely to hold his place.

I would go:
  • Tom Green for Harry Rowston: the latter's had a run in firsts, looks promising long-term, but will benefit from some VFL conditioning
  • Toby Bedford to come in for Cal Ward in the forward line
Sam Taylor's replacement probably depends on what the Sydney line-up is likely to look like. Aleer, if fit, is clearly an option. If they stick with who they had for the Cats' game (McDonald, Francis, McLean), then we could possibly stick with Buckley, Idun & Haynes and insert another runner off HBF (possibly Fahey, although I don't recall seeing why he didn't play VFL). An alternative would be to give Cam Fleeton a debut with a shorter forwardline and see how he goes. Otherwise, it remains an option to put Harry back, and either bring in a tall (Derksen would be my preference, give him an opportunity to have a go against a shorter backline) or put another small up front (if Lloyd fit to return for example).

Teamwise, options:

Cumming Buckley Idun
Whitfield Haynes Ash
Callaghan Perryman Kelly
Greene HH Cadman
Daniels Hogan Bedford
Flynn Green Coniglio
IC: Peatling XOH Angwin Fahey/Fleeton

OR

Cumming Buckley Idun
Whitfield HH Haynes
Callaghan Perryman Kelly
Greene Derksen/Lloyd Cadman
Daniels Hogan Bedford
Flynn Green Coniglio
IC: Peatling XOH Angwin Ash

Definitely a winnable game, given the condition that Swans are in. However, also eminently losable as Swans will be hurting and looking to bounce back against us. If we play like we did against Lions then we have a strong chance ...

EDIT: Just seen the injury news - Kennedy out for season, Aleer for another 2 weeks. Nothing on Keeffe or Fahey, but Lloyd is a test.
 
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Feeling optimistic for the derby, given how devastated the Swans were after the Geelong thrashing. It was historically horrific for them - their worst loss since 1998 and their lowest second half score since 1971!. The market however thinks they will bounce back and has them still as overwhelming $1.22 favourites (we are $4.35). If we had Taylor, Ward and Kennedy would be more confident, but still would be remarkable for Sydney to bounce back and win.

 
I am enjoying the new freedom we are seeing in the game play. A few areas to keep improving:
  • Forward pressure. We are seeing less of the easy transition from our froward half to the def 50, but I still feel we aren't at the standard there. I am hoping bedford coming in (fingers crossed) will help create more pressure in our forward half.
  • Midfield defensive capacity. Our best and best payed players are starting in the mids and healthy. But opposition mids are still having too many unpressured forward entries. We need to up the pressure gouge for longer in the mids

I think the def has been largely good. With Taylor out we have a massive hole. The decision will be do we swing HH back and bring in a forward or do we go with a Keefe/Fleeton as a replacement. I would be pushing HH back.

Out:
Taylor, Kennedy, ward

In:
Green, Bedford, Lloyd
 
I am enjoying the new freedom we are seeing in the game play. A few areas to keep improving:
  • Forward pressure. We are seeing less of the easy transition from our froward half to the def 50, but I still feel we aren't at the standard there. I am hoping bedford coming in (fingers crossed) will help create more pressure in our forward half.
  • Midfield defensive capacity. Our best and best payed players are starting in the mids and healthy. But opposition mids are still having too many unpressured forward entries. We need to up the pressure gouge for longer in the mids

I think the def has been largely good. With Taylor out we have a massive hole. The decision will be do we swing HH back and bring in a forward or do we go with a Keefe/Fleeton as a replacement. I would be pushing HH back.

Out:
Taylor, Kennedy, ward

In:
Green, Bedford, Lloyd
Currently sit third for tackles i50 per game with Bedford to come in as well that should only get better. Our defence has the lowest 1 on 1 loss rate in the entire comp, so they're certainly holding up their end of the bargain but currently allowing the second most inside 50s, so the good work can often go to waste by sheer volume.
 
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Whilst we currently have a 9-15 record in our derby against the Swans (including winning all 3 finals! :)), our SCG record is pretty decent. We have an overall 4-6 record there, and have won 3 of our last 4 matches against the Swans in SCG.
 
Longmire on the derby match

On the GWS Giants
“I think they’re showing some really good signs and they’ve got some terrific players. They’ll be competitive, the games we play against the Giants always are, so we expect that this week. They’ve shown a different style of play that they’ll be throwing up and we’ll have to be on our game to counteract that.”

 
Longmire on the derby match

On the GWS Giants
“I think they’re showing some really good signs and they’ve got some terrific players. They’ll be competitive, the games we play against the Giants always are, so we expect that this week. They’ve shown a different style of play that they’ll be throwing up and we’ll have to be on our game to counteract that.”

He's got bigger problems than us.
 

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He's got bigger problems than us.
Yup. Sydney’s injury list looks bad..which is good for us in terms of pulling out an upset win.

 
Yup. Sydney’s injury list looks bad..which is good for us in terms of pulling out an upset win.

Same as our injury list for the last 6 years. Never got the media attention other clubs have.
 

Posted some of Ricky's work before but he does some of the best AFL analysis out there competition wide for mostly free and we got a bit of a mention this week in his notebook dump

GWS Giants

It’s a shame Sam Taylor’s hamstring injury – more on him coming in this week’s Fortnightly Focus – and the subsequent reshuffle will alter the Giants’ setup. They’d started to make progress on their style in the last fortnight, showing more flashes than the first month.

Offensively they managed eight goals from defensive half against Brisbane – five from the back 50 – and while some of that is down to the Lions’ well-documented issues, the fact the Giants were able to expose it speaks to a growing confidence in their own ball movement.

Defensively, the last fortnight has also seen a Giant improvement (proud of that one) in stopping opponents taking it from their back 50 to forward 50:

Opponents rebound 50 to inside 50 percentage v GWS, 2023

Round 1: 31%
Round 2: 36.4%
Round 3: 12.8% (on a bog of a ground + heavy conditions. Plus it was Carlton)
Round 4: 31.6%
Round 5: 19.5%
Round 6: 17.1%

Aaron Cadman’s first two games have shown glimpses while genuinely helping their forward setup, Toby Bedford has returned from injury at VFL level and once AFL-ready will immediately form a dangerous partnership with Brent Daniels, fleshing out their attacking options at ground level.

It’s coming together bit-by-bit, even if Taylor’s injury throws a spanner in the works.

END OF RICKY

Think there's a chance once the bye rolls around and we look into the second half of the year this team could really start clicking, Bedford to come in, team getting more familiar and confident with the gameplan, Cadman hopefully continuing to improve, midfield getting a good run at it together. Don't think we'll be playing finals or anything but we could be pretty dangerous and look to play spoiler in the second half of the year.
 
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Think we're a chance this week, should be a good game. They're really depleted in KPD stocks which should give our forward a good chance to have a big impact on this game, their midfield probably isn't firing as well as they'd hope so far been about average for scores from stoppages so far, think with Green back and Perryman with a week under his belt we have a good chance in there. Derby is always fun, hopefully a good one.
 
Think we're a chance this week, should be a good game. They're really depleted in KPD stocks which should give our forward a good chance to have a big impact on this game, their midfield probably isn't firing as well as they'd hope so far been about average for scores from stoppages so far, think with Green back and Perryman with a week under his belt we have a good chance in there. Derby is always fun, hopefully a good one.
The bookies are currently paying $1.22 for a Swans win, $4.30 for us.

I just get the feeling it will be much closer than that.
 
There's been a few times when whoever's higher on the ladder actually gets rolled in these games - hopefully the case this round!

No real change in my thinking on player changes - Green for Rowston in midfield: Green-Coniglio-Perryman-Kelly-Callaghan is a pretty formidable combination. We need them to win the contested battle against Sydney's midfield.

If Hickey's OK to play, I assume that they'll then use Ladhams forward. Hopefully none of the other injured talls gets up. In that case, I'd probably be tempted to move Harry back because of his mobility, and bring in Derksen for a debut, but who is a really useful (and mobile) second ruck.

Then Toby Bedford to come in for Cal Ward.

Either Rowston or Hamilton as sub.

I don't know what the situation is with Josh Fahey, so I haven't included him in any changes.

If we can play in the manner we did against the Lions (except for letting Charlie Cameron run loose, read Papley for Swans) then we'll be right in with a chance.
 
I’d be really disappointed in Kingsley if he started HH down back. He was adamant in pre season that he is a forward and he liked to give players continuity in Their position.

He has had a slow start to the year but is building and is crucial alongside Hogan in Cadmans development.

Fleeton would be my pick to come in for Taylor until Aleer or Davis is available. Keefe should be absolute last resort especially against the swans without talls
 
Except we've just lost our best (AA level) KPF, and the next 2 cabs off the rank are injured. I agree with continuity - and to be honest, I think AK will go that way - but when injuries strike, you have to juggle suboptimal options.
 
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