Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 7 - Cats v Blues Sat April 27th 4:35pm AEST (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 3 3.2%

  • Blues by a goal or less

    Votes: 4 4.3%

  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 31 33.0%

  • Blues by 7 - 20

    Votes: 40 42.6%

  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 9 9.6%

  • Blues by a lot

    Votes: 6 6.4%

  • Draw

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Total voters
    94
  • Poll closed .

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Hard to say

I think both fwd lines beat their respective defenders so it’ll be a battle of the midfield where I think Carlton have the edge.

Blues by 17
 
Curnow still hasn't gotten fully going but we're seeing glimpses. Harry has been great 5 of our 6 games and phenomenal in 3. Cripps and Walsh are freaks and especially Walsh has come back from injury again and played like he did in the finals (winning the player of finals). Also Weitering has been off, marshalling the troops as always but as per his chat on SEN this morning he's aware he's not been playing at his best the last few weeks and after injury he usually takes a month to hit his straps so he's due to return to close to his best soon.

I think our lesser light worker bees in Cotters, Boyd, Kemp, Cowan, Acres and Hollands x 2 will need to be switched on for the game and play as they pretty much did against GWS. I can sense one of Harry and Curnow is going to get 5+ in this one.

Geelong v Carlton even in our dismal period we tended to always match up relatively well and give a good fist of it and on recent trends I'd expect no less. I expect a tight tussle for the first half, followed by one team having a 5 minute burst in the second half being the difference.
 
JustaBattler said:
My rehash was just rhetorical debate 101.

My view is that Carlton are now rebound run less with Saad/McGovern and Williams not there so Geelong have less to concern themselves with as far as the running part of the rebound game goes. I also think that Geelong's smalls in particular have a tad more class than the inexperienced Boyd/Cowan and Kemp so that is a factor as well.

Against those negatives Carlton has Walsh the running machine back and Cripps back in excellent form - the inclusion of Pittonet has stiffened up the clearances and released TDK to an emerging useful third tall / ruck role. Geelongs younger midfield will have some work to do to cover the Carlton midfield for 4 quarters.

Cameron and Hawkins V Charlie and Harry are pretty even I would suggest.

I then put a lot of weight on Geelong's superior kicking skills and structures V Carlton's developing game style.

Geelong have the class to win it easy but might feel the absence of Stewart and his ability to plug holes and intercept mark - if Carlton win too much of the ground ball then maybe the Blues can get a win. If not Geelong will have too much firepower up front.
Click to expand...
Yeah that's a fair summation.

Stewart is our defensive fulcrum and MVP, but it isn't easy missing multiple components of a defence like Carlton is having to. If Williams doesn't play then too much rebound is missing, otherwise defensively I think it evens out as Stewart is that critical to us.

A player like Martin would be dangerous against Geelong and if you threw Cerra in that midfield battle would be even more daunting for Geelong. Cerra-wise, Guthrie is our obvious like for like.

And I accept that Fogarty and Motlop would be upgrades on two of your small forwards, without being Miers/Stengle level jets. Rohan is a best 23 player, but actually Dempsey's break out in the meantime means we are adapting to life without him.

Anyway that's all to say I agree Carlton's absentee list has a significant effect but the best 23s of both sides have more than enough quality remaining to win. The Cats will probably be jaded from the wet slog but the injury accumulation effect could zap at the Blues a bit too.
 
STPer18 said:
Geelong lose they go 6-1, Carlton lose they go 5-2 - it's hardly a season defining contest. Both teams have already made it through the first 1/4 of the season just about as well as you could hope and both have some genuine A-grade players to come back in. It should be a good contest and the media will blow their load over whoever wins, but there's still a long way to go.
Click to expand...

Every win/loss matters whether it's round 1 or round 23. A win could (eventually) secure a particular spot on the ladder.
While a loss may see you finish in a less desirable spot (or 9th!!) - win at all costs damn it!
 
Xtreme said:
Every win/loss matters whether it's round 1 or round 23. A win could (eventually) secure a particular spot on the ladder.
While a loss may see you finish in a less desirable spot (or 9th!!) - win at all costs damn it!
Click to expand...
Certainly pays to set the season up early, bank the wins and then be able to take a rest coming into finals. How Carlton goes between now and the round 15 return game will define where we finish and our realistic chances to go deep.

Cats
Pies
Dees
Swans
Suns
Power
Bombers
Cats

You would want to be 10-4 after this run at worst to stay in the top 4 hunt, 14-1/13-2 would near on lock in a top 4 chance and allow you to coast later in the year
 
Worm4 said:
You do realise that blues will be missing McGovern, Saad, Docherty.
Geelong gets another team with half their defence missing.
They should take it when they can I suppose ?
Click to expand...
Geelong were missing Stewart, Kolodjashnij, Jack Henry and Duncan for the Carlton match last year and SDK was dodgy after copping a knock the previous week. We actually didn't roll out the excuses until later in the year when Dangerfield, Guthrie, Stanley and Holmes were also sidelined.
 

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Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods said:
Who plays on Harry and Charlie? SDK probably more athletic, so possibly goes to Charlie? Blicavs likely to go back to play on Harry?
Or Jazz Knee to Charlie and SDK to Harry due to the heights?
Click to expand...
I would think SDK to Harry and then it could be either Kolo or Henry that gets Curnow.

Henry is deceptively athletic and could probably go with Curnow, I would worry about Kolo being able to keep up with him.
 
catstorm said:
I would think SDK to Harry and then it could be either Kolo or Henry that gets Curnow.

Henry is deceptively athletic and could probably go with Curnow, I would worry about Kolo being able to keep up with him.
Click to expand...

If J. Henry's the lesser athletically of the two, we're going alright there.

Part of the famous Misfits backline before de Koning's arrival, when Geelong's defence was made up of a steeplechaser, a pole vaulter, a high jumper/decathlete, some Irish converts and numerous rookie list projects.

Jack HENRY | Profile | World Athletics

Jack HENRY, Australia
worldathletics.org worldathletics.org

www.theage.com.au

Jack the local lad another Geelong product

Jack Henry is a Geelong person from top to bottom who is still pinching himself that he is wearing the blue and white hoops
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au
 
Last edited:
Mrs bought the family GA tickets to this match. Does anyone know where the GA area at the MCG is for this match and how early we'd have to get there for a decent set of seats?

All I know is where the AFL Members and MCC Members reserves are?
 
Saint said:
Mrs bought the family GA tickets to this match. Does anyone know where the GA area at the MCG is for this match and how early we'd have to get there for a decent set of seats?

All I know is where the AFL Members and MCC Members reserves are?
Click to expand...
Prob level 4 behind the goals.
 
Guthrie is available to play this week, though it's probably a fair bet that he'll be in the VFL.

This will be a good test for both teams and from Geelong's side, particularly in the middle and defence. Stewart is a huge out for us and though it was pleasing to see how the system held up against Brisbane once he was taken off, it's a different proposition against an opponent who has a week to prepare. Though Curnow in particular often goes well against us, I think we have the timber to match their talls in the forward line, even if Tom de Koning spends a fair bit of time there.

We'll be leaning on our experienced campaigners significantly to make a match of it in the middle and I'm guessing Cameron will spend a lot of his day between the arcs and forcing Carlton to find someone to run with him.

I'd love a win here and think it would be a huge statement early in the season. Feels a bit like we're playing with the house's money with another win on the weekend and Carlton will be desperate to not drop back with the pack. Think it will be the Blues by 2-3 goals.
 
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