Speculation Bailey Smith

[Corn Cobbers]

I'm hearing any deal for Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

to Collingwood is 100% off.

Hawthorn bound with their first pick involved.

Now I can sleep at night, bullet dodged

On SM-A225F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TazHawk15]

Now I can sleep at night, bullet dodged

On SM-A225F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Of course you can sleep at night, just like if he chooses Collingwood you would change the tune.
It’s how BF works.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

It's actually a good pick split deal for them.

Can you find another trade that's close to giving up two top 10 picks for pick 3

 

[HBFlanker]

The reason Hawks and Dogs fans both love that deal is because Suns gets shafted. Given what they got last year, I dont mind the Suns getting shafted but they arent doing 8 and 9 for 3

You do realise they hae academy picks they need to take into account?

Lombard every chance to be bid on between 4 and 6, which would cook them having two top 10 picks.

Getting to pick 3 allows them to draft someone at pick 3 and then match a bid for Lombard shortly after.

 

[Bald]

Can you find another trade that's close to giving up two top 10 picks for pick 3

Dogs are likely to finish outside the top 8 this year, so let's assume the pick tied to them is pick 10. Pick 10, 10 and 17 for pick 4 is close to 8 and 9 for 3.

 

[PurpJuice]

Pies dont have the draft capital to make it happen. Dogs at a point where they know his exit is imminent. Will maximise value.

Dogs get: Pick 8, 2025 Round 2 (Haw)
Dogs give: Bailey Smith

Suns get: Pick 3
Suns give Pick 8, pick 9

Hawks get: Bailey Smith, Pick 9
Hawks give: Pick 3, 2025 round 2(Haw)

Thats essentially what I've heard.

Suns need to get above any picks for Academy players, and currently at 8/9 thats a risk.

Points wise this rates Bailey Smith at roughly a pick 9.

As a dogs supporter, I think both clubs will be happy with this. Baz is a great player and getting him and pick 9 for pick 3 is a good deal for the hawks.

Dogs will be happy to get back into the draft with pick 8 as the first 12 players are pretty even this year, and they don’t have a first rounder. The 2025 second rounder from hawks will be helpful because we have a few father sons to bid on that draft.

Suns win for obvious reasons, good deal all round. I was worried Collingwood would try and screw us because they have no draft capital.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Dogs are likely to finish outside the top 8 this year, so let's assume the pick tied to them is pick 10. Pick 10, 10 and 17 for pick 4 is close to 8 and 9 for 3.

What were Dogs thoughts on that trade at the time and currently? Happy with it or thought it was a crazy overpay.

Edit: Read it wrong, I apologise, you are right

 

[adogsfan5]

I’m still hearing it’s the cats just in front.

That new scoreboard and grandstand will be a good sell!

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

That is nowhere near the same haha and what were Dogs thoughts on that trade at the time and currently? Happy with it or thought it was a crazy overpay

It's definitely the same.... pick 10 + 17 could easily get you pick 9. Then that would be pick 9 and 10.

 

[PurpJuice]

That is nowhere near the same haha and what were Dogs thoughts on that trade at the time and currently? Happy with it or thought it was a crazy overpay

Face value it looks like overpay, but in the context of Croft, you’ve got to look at it like:

Pick 17 for Croft

Pick 10 + (most likely pick 10) for sanders (pick 4).

I was happy with it at the time and still am. Especially with Libba looking like he’s nearing the end with concussion, and Baz leaving, we need the next gen of mids coming through and I’m stoked to have Sanders.

 

[Bald]

That is nowhere near the same haha and what were Dogs thoughts on that trade at the time and currently? Happy with it or thought it was a crazy overpay

Huh? It’s very similar, points value wise 10, 10 and 17 is worth considerably more as well.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

You do realise they hae academy picks they need to take into account?

Lombard every chance to be bid on between 4 and 6, which would cook them having two top 10 picks.

Getting to pick 3 allows them to draft someone at pick 3 and then match a bid for Lombard shortly after.

They can get to pick 3 sure, but they'll get it cheaper than giving up 8 and 9 and getting nothing else back. Just because the result is something they are after, doesnt mean the trade is fair.

If there are any other trades for pick 3, I'm open to hearing about it but in 2016, GWS gave McCarthy (who had sat out a year), pick 7, pick 33 and pick 71.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Huh? It’s very similar, points value wise 10, 10 and 17 is worth considerably more as well.

Yeah, my bad, have edited, I speed read and missed a 10

 

[Bald]

Yeah, my bad, have edited, I speed read and missed a 10

All good! To answer your question regarding feelings on the trade.

At the end of the day, I can't see the pick tied to us being anything out of the 8-12 range, so we gave up pick 17, 10 and let's say 8 for picks 4 and Croft (who was taken at 15).

I don't think it's favourable or unfavourable. I think it's almost bang on, at least at this early stage.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Face value it looks like overpay, but in the context of Croft, you’ve got to look at it like:

Pick 17 for Croft

Pick 10 + (most likely pick 10) for sanders (pick 4).

I was happy with it at the time and still am. Especially with Libba looking like he’s nearing the end with concussion, and Baz leaving, we need the next gen of mids coming through and I’m stoked to have Sanders.

I think when you look at the end result with the pick this year, that will be seen as a completely ridiculous trade however Bald proved a club has paid something ridiculous to move up and I'll eat humbe pie HBFlanker and see if it happens. I will still expect at least some later points to go GC in that trade

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

All good! To answer your question regarding feelings on the trade.

At the end of the day, I can't see the pick tied to us being anything out of the 8-12 range, so we gave up pick 17, 10 and let's say 8 for picks 4 and Croft (who was taken at 15).

I don't think it's favourable or unfavourable. I think it's almost bang on, at least at this early stage.

I think Dogs fans will be very upset at this trade in hindsight in 8 years, even more so if he heads to Tas. It's just far far too much and there were other ways to handle paying for Croft

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Holmes just re-signed for reportedly 4 Years / $750k per year
Sounds like Geelong bargains are still paying off.

Sel said it best in his retirement press conference.
“You don't come to the Geelong Football Club to go to work for money, you come for the experience.”

Speaks volumes about cap management and how the club is run.
Does Smithy fit into that mould? Who knows? I still reckon he’s going to Hawthorn.

I know for a fact that he doesn't like the idea of living down at Geelong, or that was his view late last year.
Hawks are in the box seat.

 

[McOrist]

Pies dont have the draft capital to make it happen. Dogs at a point where they know his exit is imminent. Will maximise value.

Dogs get: Pick 8, 2025 Round 2 (Haw)
Dogs give: Bailey Smith

Suns get: Pick 3
Suns give Pick 8, pick 9

Hawks get: Bailey Smith, Pick 9
Hawks give: Pick 3, 2025 round 2(Haw)

Thats essentially what I've heard.

Suns need to get above any picks for Academy players, and currently at 8/9 thats a risk.

Points wise this rates Bailey Smith at roughly a pick 9.

This looks like a good deal for the Dogs and Hawks, less so for the Suns. Suns may want to use one of their top picks to trade in a top line player.
Of course, the whole deal falls down if Smith doesn't want to go to Hawthorn.

 

[nelk boys]

I’m still hearing it’s the cats just in front.

That new scoreboard and grandstand will be a good sell!

I've heard the opposite.

His management and himself are supportive of the young list mitch is building. Was almost done last trade period.

 

[lordbob]

I sure hope the hawks arent looking at trading a first round pick for someone coming off a knee reco.

Look at the o'mera trade, they lose a bit after a knee reco. I sure hope the hawks dont give up their first for that kind of player.

not wanting to bag o'mera, he was a serviceable player, just could never reach the promise he showed after doing his knee.

Unfortunately hawks have a penchant for trading for players coming off significant injuries with question marks over their futures. Its ok to take a risk with later picks, but first rounders should be off limit for trades for players coming off significant injuries.
o'mera (pick 10 + future 2nd) paid overs
patton (4th rnd pick)
scully (4th rnd pick)
burgoyne (mark williams + pick 9) this one paid off
lake ( pick downgarde) this one is an exception because he played a full season after his knee injury so we could see how he recovered, less uncertainty.
Jonathan O'rourke

Jonathan O'rourke

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.8

4star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.9

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.0

4star

CL

1.7

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.6

4star

CL

1.0

3star

(pick 19) plagued by hamstring injuries his whole career prior to being traded to hawks.
Kyle Hrtigan (4th rnd pick)
Max Lynch (minor late pick downgrades) had concussion history that forced him to retire.

Of those 8 players we traded for with injury histories, id argue only burgoyne and lake were successful trades worthy of the picks we gave up or better. 2/8 trades.

 

[TylerDurden]

I've heard the opposite.

His management and himself are supportive of the young list mitch is building. Was almost done last trade period.

100% was close to getting done last trade period.

 

[SSSSSS]

Pies dont have the draft capital to make it happen. Dogs at a point where they know his exit is imminent. Will maximise value.

Dogs get: Pick 8, 2025 Round 2 (Haw)
Dogs give: Bailey Smith

Suns get: Pick 3
Suns give Pick 8, pick 9

Hawks get: Bailey Smith, Pick 9
Hawks give: Pick 3, 2025 round 2(Haw)

Thats essentially what I've heard.

Suns need to get above any picks for Academy players, and currently at 8/9 thats a risk.

Points wise this rates Bailey Smith at roughly a pick 9.

That actually seems like win win for everybody.

GC probably gets a pick before their academy kid.
Bulldogs get access to a first rounder + cash to keep English.
Hawks get Baz and hopefully a tall later in the draft.

 

[FootyLad0]

I know for a fact that he doesn't like the idea of living down at Geelong, or that was his view late last year.
Hawks are in the box seat.

Yeah as I said before I reckon the Hawks nuffie will pick Hawthorn and I’m not mad about it at all as I’m not really onboard with him in the first place.
If Dogs want anything higher than pick 15 for a guy with off field issues and coming off a major knee injury then I’m happy to walk and go elsewhere.

 

[FB19]

Can you find another trade that's close to giving up two top 10 picks for pick 3

Happy with the deal for us but could see tigers offer 2/22/33 for 8/9/20/29 or similar. 2 split to 8/9 then upgrade 2 second rounders. Tigers need as many picks with little young talent and Tasmania coming. suns get pick before Lombard with 22/26/33 to match.

 

[Cam Payne]

I’m still hearing it’s the cats just in front.

That new scoreboard and grandstand will be a good sell!

I hear the Cats are offering Baz's soon to be established construction company the scoreboard build contract. You heard it here first.