Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[TennisFan76]

Not sure what's funnier, wrong account or calling Karl Norman a young gun?

The world was Karl’s oyster, should’ve been a 200 game player, he returned to his home club and helped lead them to four straight premierships. Absolutely dominated the O&M competition, he was poorly treated at Carlton, if he was on a list today, he’d have the care needed.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I think free agency extends clubs periods at the top, which in turn extends the rebuild.

Clubs used to have to trade picks to get players, now they get them for free.

 

[TennisFan76]

I think free agency extends clubs periods at the top, which in turn extends the rebuild.

Clubs used to have to trade picks to get players, now they get them for free.

Nothings free, somebody always pays.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Nothings free, somebody always pays.

People will always accept less to chase a flag. Salary cap does not help enough.

 

[TennisFan76]

People will always accept less to chase a flag. Salary cap does not help enough.

We’ve just had a team in my local town stripped off a premiership for cheating the salary cap, Wangaratta Magpies, Ben Reid is coach, you think all AFL clubs adhere to the cap rules? Or you think there could be some money under the table at elite level too?

 

[Rob]

We’ve just had a team in my local town stripped off a premiership for cheating the salary cap, Wangaratta Magpies, Ben Reid is coach, you think all AFL clubs adhere to the cap rules? Or you think there could be some money under the table at elite level too?

Hard to know as we don't know how much effort the AFL puts in enforcing the cap. I believe the AFL are yet to actually find an instance of a club cheating the cap themselves, every breach is either a self report or an internal whistleblower.

It was odd that the team that seemingly had the most free cap space (and was therefore capable of the Bowes trade) was also the premiership winners.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Nah, 35 years is about right

 

[Ants]

I am not really sure what the AFL system could do to facilitate a rebuild quicker. We have the draft system that clearly offers plenty of opportunities to get your list topped up with enough youth. At that point it really comes down to development from within clubs as one factor to promote their young players. You need a mix of 23-28 year olds who have been in the system for 5-10 years who have had exposure to the system and can make the bulk of your list you should rely on.

The thing is, if your list isn't good enough (whether that be your fault, bad luck, or just end of a cycle) then the issue isn't how to get talent per se, it is how to get more talent than the sides with better lists. Towards that end, I would strongly argue with the bolded text above.

The difference between finishing last and first is pick #1. After pick #1, the premier gets their pick before yours for the rest of the draft. For teams who don't finish first and last, the gap is much smaller. In a sport with 23 field positions one player, even the #1 pick, is seldom going to make up the gap in talent. Especially when you consider for most teams it won't be #1 picks but picks #1=>#6 odd, and how many top 10 picks fail due to reasons outside the control of the team drafting them.

So for a team with a bad list to rebuild quickly, it has to have a superior ability to pick and/or develop talent. Which in an even competition there is no guarantee you will have. And the longer the rebuild, the more lower teams are at risk of losing the talent they do acquire to poachers.

Many clubs have bought the negativity and flat periods on themselves. Melbourne and Carlton spring to mind. Tanking, poor governance etc. Also, good changes in coaching have buoyed clubs like St Kilda to start improving rapidly. Adelaide are a club that looks to have recruited well and developed well. Fogarty (local) Rankine (traded) are home grown products. Rachele is one they need to keep and you can’t do much if he wants out. Mind you, I think the go home to family is a bit pathetic.

Sure, some teams exacerbate or bring on the rebuild due to their own stuff ups. But plenty don't.

Some clubs just continue to stay in contention, Geelong, Sydney. There’s clearly no concept of rebuilding there. It’s just topping up the list constantly. The development is also sensational. GC is a fair mess but I think that’s their own doing. Good to see Essendon showing more now. Again, it’s coaching. It sounds obvious but coaching is underrated; Lyon and Scott are making things happen and Nicks is seeing the benefit of a developing list and persistence with a style that’s taken a few years to get right.

You listed two clubs as being able to stay on top. Geelong has been an amazingly well run club, has capitalised on its natural advantages and having a core of fantastic picks and F/S talent, and being very good at picking players (well, later ones) and developing them. I wouldn't use them to base a model on.

Sydney is advantaged by their academy system. Even when they up, they get access to top talent like Mills even with later picks. In 2020 when they were down they got McDonald, and then virtually got Gulden and Campbell for free. Add that to a well run club and that is a huge foot up on the competition.

I think free agency extends clubs periods at the top, which in turn extends the rebuild.

Clubs used to have to trade picks to get players, now they get them for free.

Absolutely agreed. An easy first step would be for the AFL to say that the points value of the compensation picks comes out of the receiving club's draft points. You could still allow a discount, which might be much bigger for clubs at the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Ants]

You’d be naive to think that, happens all the time.

I'd like a single example of a club capable of playing finals choosing not too because it will get them a better pick.

Easy solution, get rid of front/back loading contracts and make contract values public...

Half the problem is solved almost instantly

Why would that change things?

 

[go_the_dockers]

Absolutely agreed. An easy first step would be for the AFL to say that the points value of the compensation picks comes out of the receiving club's draft points. You could still allow a discount, which might be much bigger for clubs at the bottom of the ladder.

I like this.
Bottom 8, no loss of draft points.
Top 4 100% loss of points
In between maybe 50%

 

[Tippett2Goal]

I'd like a single example of a club capable of playing finals choosing not too because it will get them a better pick.

Why would that change things?

Clubs stay up at the moment by forward loading co tracts during thier build, then backloading at the top to extend that time.

Take away the ability to do that and clubs can't hold onto good players as easily via backloading

 

[Blue1980]

Melbourne tried it, Carlton did too, it’s a strategy.

No one has done it since the days of priority picks as the gain is way too little

 

[Blue1980]

Clubs stay up at the moment by forward loading co tracts during thier build, then backloading at the top to extend that time.

Take away the ability to do that and clubs can't hold onto good players as easily via backloading

That disadvantages sides who are rebuilding though, harder to hang onto their best players.

 

[Ants]

Easy solution, get rid of front/back loading contracts and make contract values public...

Half the problem is solved almost instantly

Why would that change things?

Clubs stay up at the moment by forward loading co tracts during thier build, then backloading at the top to extend that time.

Take away the ability to do that and clubs can't hold onto good players as easily via backloading

I'm not sure if anyone has actually done this and successfully. Do you have an example? Other than Geelong, most of the sides in recent times have popped up and then a few years later popped down. Richmond is trying to break that cycle.

I think the much bigger driver is that players at the top sides are willing to be paid less for success.

 

[Soggy2112]

I'm not sure if anyone has actually done this and successfully. Do you have an example? Other than Geelong, most of the sides in recent times have popped up and then a few years later popped down. Richmond is trying to break that cycle.

I think the much bigger driver is that players at the top sides are willing to be paid less for success.

Geelong also have the added advantage of their location, they have been really good at recruiting and maintaining players who are willing to accept less coin to have the lifestyle the club can provide.

 

[Ants]

Geelong also have the added advantage of their location, they have been really good at recruiting and maintaining players who are willing to accept less coin to have the lifestyle the club can provide.

Absolutely. I mean, at the end of the day if Danger doesn't insist on going there possibly they're rebuilding 3-5 years ago (assuming that without him, they finish lower, and struggle to attract others that went there for finals).

Geelong have also been superb at getting players to play long careers. Which means they get more value out of each successful draft pick/trade than their competitors. Plus means you have more leadership around the club. Collingwood with Pendles & Sidebottom have done similar.

 

[catstorm]

Absolutely. I mean, at the end of the day if Danger doesn't insist on going there possibly they're rebuilding 3-5 years ago (assuming that without him, they finish lower, and struggle to attract others that went there for finals).

Geelong have also been superb at getting players to play long careers. Which means they get more value out of each successful draft pick/trade than their competitors. Plus means you have more leadership around the club. Collingwood with Pendles & Sidebottom have done similar.

That's actually an often overlooked thing, 11 of Geelongs top 15 for games played all time are from the last 20 years including the top 3 and 4 of the top 5.

 

[FreoFan85]

Nothings free, somebody always pays.

I think that one thing that is forgotten is that the other 16 clubs are disadvantaged whenever there is a free agency call.

Take Tom Lynch as an example.The Gold Coast got Tom Lynch for the 6 - 7 years whatever it was and then to compensate losing him got given pick 3. Richmond had to obviously pay financially to bring him across.

Every other clubs draft hand gets slightly diluted because of the addition of this pick.

So Richmond wins, because they get a good player for salary cap. Gold Coast's loss is at least offset by getting pick 3.

But the other 16 clubs just lose a spot down the order for no real reason that impacts them. Imagine that the top 3 was so superior in that draft year (it wasn't) than that would have been a massive disadvantage to a rebuilding club St Kilda.

Image that that was the compensation in the Luke Hodge, Luke Ball, Chris Judd era and then the team that was 4th (ironically freo) gets Graham Polak instead, through no fault on their own.

 

[Ambrosia]

I think free agency extends clubs periods at the top, which in turn extends the rebuild.

Clubs used to have to trade picks to get players, now they get them for free.

The 16 clubs not in the free agency transaction pay by having their draft hands weakened by the stupid compensation picks.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Yes but weve just had a generation of expansion teams getting 30 first round draft picks. That era is over and we are now seeing teams build quickly.

 

[Ants]

I think that one thing that is forgotten is that the other 16 clubs are disadvantaged whenever there is a free agency call.

Take Tom Lynch as an example.The Gold Coast got Tom Lynch for the 6 - 7 years whatever it was and then to compensate losing him got given pick 3. Richmond had to obviously pay financially to bring him across.

Every other clubs draft hand gets slightly diluted because of the addition of this pick.

So Richmond wins, because they get a good player for salary cap. Gold Coast's loss is at least offset by getting pick 3.

But the other 16 clubs just lose a spot down the order for no real reason that impacts them. Imagine that the top 3 was so superior in that draft year (it wasn't) than that would have been a massive disadvantage to a rebuilding club St Kilda.

Image that that was the compensation in the Luke Hodge, Luke Ball, Chris Judd era and then the team that was 4th (ironically freo) gets Graham Polak instead, through no fault on their own.

Agreed. Which is why my suggestion from before (copied below) would go some way to mitigating that issue.

An easy first step would be for the AFL to say that the points value of the compensation picks comes out of the receiving club's draft points. You could still allow a discount, which might be much bigger for clubs at the bottom of the ladder.

 

[My Tilly]

We’ve just had a team in my local town stripped off a premiership for cheating the salary cap, Wangaratta Magpies, Ben Reid is coach, you think all AFL clubs adhere to the cap rules? Or you think there could be some money under the table at elite level too?

Always other ways to adhere to a players needs.
I mean surely real estate is the biggest question mark.

If you are chasing a player, and you have shrewd businessman within the club, no one can say anything if you sell a block of prime real estate at a pittance of it's actual worth.
Arguably, that is the biggest drawcard for players as you see most of them in the real estate industry.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Always other ways to adhere to a players needs.
I mean surely real estate is the biggest question mark.

If you are chasing a player, and you have shrewd businessman within the club, no one can say anything if you sell a block of prime real estate at a pittance of it's actual worth.
Arguably, that is the biggest drawcard for players as you see most of them in the real estate industry.

Plenty of ways around it. Torquay had weekly raffles where marquee players miraculously kept winning the woolies vouchers. Funny that

 

[Soggy2112]

Plenty of ways around it. Torquay had weekly raffles where marquee players miraculously kept winning the woolies vouchers. Funny that

Who was buying the other tickets?

 

[Freomaniac]

Yes but weve just had a generation of expansion teams getting 30 first round draft picks. That era is over and we are now seeing teams build quickly.

Sounds about right