Analysis Our Recruiting Strategy: Success or Failure?

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Corkie said:
I emailed Ashcroft yesterday asking for a members Q&A night with the footy dept heads this week. Where we can hear first hand from Ashcroft, Clayton, Eade & other coaches what our plans & strategies are for the remainder of the season. And give us an opportunity to ask constructive questions. Not a bagging session but something to reinvigorate our faith. Unfortunately no reply yet!
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he'll confirm the Q&A for wednesday, then delay it until the friday 2 weeks later, then cancel it and deny it was ever organised
 
Knightmare said:
Clayton in terms of drafting talent has in my view been good. Gold Coast have been more consistent drafting talent than GWS have if you go through player by player over the years.

Where GWS have broken clearly ahead is in opposition talent identification - gaining initially young but established players and in more recent years adding high level - star level veteran talents. Gold Coast relatively have Ablett and have been able to find any further star power from other clubs with Rischitelli, Harbrow the only ticks which isn't nearly enough.

If I was to make a recommendation to Gold Coast it would be to bring in a full time opposition list talent expert who watches AFL and state league games and can recommend trade and free agency moves. That's where Gold Coast need to and can make meaningful ground in a hurry from a recruiting perspective.
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I might tag you into our threads more often ;)
 
Ben Drever said:
I might tag you into our threads more often ;)
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Always happy to be involved in any draft/list management discussions on any board and offer my views and say it as I see it.
 

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winning said:
People forget you can only recruit what is available at that moment in time.

You have to compete with 17 other cubs for what is available and be able to pay them accordingly in the salary cap.
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If you're only talking about free agency/trading then you're right. He missed on available players like Hale, Riewoldt, Tippett and Howe. He also made the silly decision to trade Zorko after zoning him. But what about drafting in 2010? Heppell (#8) instead of Caddy (#7) is probably the most obvious one but there were others in that draft class like Isaac Smith (#19), Cameron Guthrie (#23), Jack Darling (#26), Jeremy Howe (#33), Luke Parker (#40) or even Paul Puopolo (#66). Rookies like Luke Dahlhaus, Josh Jenkins, Jason Johannisen and Jeremy McGovern were also available that year.

I know it's very easy to say these things in retrospect but could you imagine instantly swapping Day (#3) for Darling (#26) back then? What about Jeremy Taylor (#39) for Luke Parker (#40)? Tape (#13) for Howe (#33)? I could keep going but you get the point.
 
Matchu said:
If you're only talking about free agency/trading then you're right. He missed on available players like Hale, Riewoldt, Tippett and Howe. He also made the silly decision to trade Zorko after zoning him. But what about drafting in 2010? Heppell (#8) instead of Caddy (#7) is probably the most obvious one but there were others in that draft class like Isaac Smith (#19), Cameron Guthrie (#23), Jack Darling (#26), Jeremy Howe (#33), Luke Parker (#40) or even Paul Puopolo (#66). Rookies like Luke Dahlhaus, Josh Jenkins, Jason Johannisen and Jeremy McGovern were also available that year.

I know it's very easy to say these things in retrospect but could you imagine instantly swapping Day (#3) for Darling (#26) back then? What about Jeremy Taylor (#39) for Luke Parker (#40)? Tape (#13) for Howe (#33)? I could keep going but you get the point.
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Being fair I do like your post and on the whole agree but have a slight issue with Cads ;)
 
TheSunGod said:
KM how would you rate our inside mid drafting and list stock? Interested in an outsider's view.
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When Jack Bowes and Brad Scheer are both added to that current Gold Coast group I'd be feeling more strongly about Gold Coast's midfield. And they're both looking terrific. Bowes as a Dal Santo type mid who looms as the likely number one overall selection. Scheer is an inside bull of a contested ball winner and also very good up forward, I rate him top five but somewhere maybe mid-late first round is likely what Gold Coast will need to come up with to get him at this stage.

Add Bowes and Scheer to Ablett, Prestia, Hall, Rischitelli, O'Meara, Martin, Swallow, Lonergan and Miller and that's a potentially good-very good midfield group (conditional on health). With injuries though as we're seeing this year with Gold Coast, depth drops away in a hurry and the quality of product just isn't good enough, so even after Bowes and Scheer are added more quality still needs to be added still through the midfield to give that injury coverage (not so much to accumulate more depth) but more so to have more high level midfielders and have several of them playing forward/back and rotating through the midfield, and then when injuries happen, things can continue running more seamlessly.
 
Knightmare said:
When Jack Bowes and Brad Scheer are both added to that current Gold Coast group I'd be feeling more strongly about Gold Coast's midfield. And they're both looking terrific. Bowes as a Dal Santo type mid who looms as the likely number one overall selection. Scheer is an inside bull of a contested ball winner and also very good up forward, I rate him top five but somewhere maybe mid-late first round is likely what Gold Coast will need to come up with to get him at this stage.

Add Bowes and Scheer to Ablett, Prestia, Hall, Rischitelli, O'Meara, Martin, Swallow, Lonergan and Miller and that's a potentially good-very good midfield group (conditional on health). With injuries though as we're seeing this year with Gold Coast, depth drops away in a hurry and the quality of product just isn't good enough, so even after Bowes and Scheer are added more quality still needs to be added still through the midfield to give that injury coverage (not so much to accumulate more depth) but more so to have more high level midfielders and have several of them playing forward/back and rotating through the midfield, and then when injuries happen, things can continue running more seamlessly.
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Knightmare, having been here in Thailand for the past 11 years, I'm at a loss to know "who the hell you are" but obviously Dreves thinks highly of you, enough to ask you to front our mob here with your opinions. I very much like what you have to say, even on this small sample. So please don't stop. :thumbsu:
 
Choppers said:
Knightmare, having been here in Thailand for the past 11 years, I'm at a loss to know "who the hell you are" but obviously Dreves thinks highly of you, enough to ask you to front our mob here with your opinions. I very much like what you have to say, even on this small sample. So please don't stop. :thumbsu:
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Preeminent Big Footy poster about young AFL talent who has parlayed that into a gig this year with ESPN to evaluate young talent. First place I go to get a feel for young talent and opinion. Check out below if you like what you see:

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2016-draft-almanac.1131236/

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15439491/may
 
Knightmare said:
Bowes as a Dal Santo type mid who looms as the likely number one overall selection. Scheer is an inside bull of a contested ball winner and also very good up forward, I rate him top five but somewhere maybe mid-late first round is likely what Gold Coast will need to come up with to get him at this stage.
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Really? So pick 1 is worth 3000 pts and the Suns will have a 20% discount which equates to 2400 pts required to secured the number 1 selection as an academy player. The Suns currently have these assets:

1751 pts - Pick 6 (GC first rounder)
1395 pts - Pick 10 (Melbourne first rounder)
948 pts - Pick 19 (Fremantle second rounder)
845 pts - Pick 22 (Richmond second rounder)
785 pts - Pick 24 (GC second rounder)
703 pts - Pick 27 (Port Adelaide second rounder)

Are you allowed to choose which picks you give up or does it have to be your next available pick/s? If it's the former then the Suns could quite easily keep at least one of their top 10 picks. If it's the latter then I suppose they could use picks 6 and 27 (2454 pts) to secure Bowes, use their 10th pick normally, then let's say Scheer is bid on at pick 14 (1161 pts) they could use pick 19 (948 pts) to secure Scheer with the academy discount which would equate to 928 pts. Then they use picks 22 and 24 normally.

So, in that situation, the Suns secure the number 1 pick in Bowes, the 10th pick, Scheer at pick 14, the 22nd pick and the 24th pick. The benefits are becoming very clear when it comes to trading for future draft picks!
 

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Matchu said:
Really? So pick 1 is worth 3000 pts and the Suns will have a 20% discount which equates to 2400 pts required to secured the number 1 selection as an academy player. The Suns currently have these assets:

1751 pts - Pick 6 (GC first rounder)
1395 pts - Pick 10 (Melbourne first rounder)
948 pts - Pick 19 (Fremantle second rounder)
845 pts - Pick 22 (Richmond second rounder)
785 pts - Pick 24 (GC second rounder)
703 pts - Pick 27 (Port Adelaide second rounder)

Are you allowed to choose which picks you give up or does it have to be your next available pick/s? If it's the former then the Suns could quite easily keep at least one of their top 10 picks. If it's the latter then I suppose they could use picks 6 and 27 (2454 pts) to secure Bowes, use their 10th pick normally, then let's say Scheer is bid on at pick 14 (1161 pts) they could use pick 19 (948 pts) to secure Scheer with the academy discount which would equate to 928 pts. Then they use picks 22 and 24 normally.

So, in that situation, the Suns secure the number 1 pick in Bowes, the 10th pick, Scheer at pick 14, the 22nd pick and the 24th pick. The benefits are becoming very clear when it comes to trading for future draft picks!
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With Bowes and Scheer on the horizon last year, it makes sense that we stockpiled 2nd rounders and obtaining Melb's first pick this year.
 
I think Knightmare is right in pointing out that most of our top 10 picks have been outstanding quality
You would have to be Nostradamus to have predicted the carnage to Prestia Swallow and O'Meara and Ablett
Those 4 on the park consistently I would argue there would be less injuries all round.It's my belief the injury cycle we are enduring ,in part,relates to the extra effort our fit players have to produce to compensate for the missing elites
Also agree that our major area of disappointment has been mature recruiting.I would add in Clayton's defence that I believe in the early days we took the best that was available.The talent GWS was a able to tap a couple of years later wasn't on offer in 2010
 
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SandyToes said:
I think Knightmare is right in pointing out that most of our top 10 picks have been outstanding quality
You would have to be Nostradamus to have predicted the carnage to Prestia Swallow and O'Meara and Ablett
Those 4 on the park consistently I would argue there would be less injuries all round.It's my belief the injury cycle we are enduring ,in part,relates to the extra effort our fit players have to produce to compensate for the missing elites
Also agree that our major area of disappointment has been mature recruiting.I would add in Clayton's defence that I believe in the early days we took the best that was available.The talent GWS was a able to tap a couple of years later wasn't on offer in 2010
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Agree with all of this.
 
Matchu said:
Really? So pick 1 is worth 3000 pts and the Suns will have a 20% discount which equates to 2400 pts required to secured the number 1 selection as an academy player. The Suns currently have these assets:

1751 pts - Pick 6 (GC first rounder)
1395 pts - Pick 10 (Melbourne first rounder)
948 pts - Pick 19 (Fremantle second rounder)
845 pts - Pick 22 (Richmond second rounder)
785 pts - Pick 24 (GC second rounder)
703 pts - Pick 27 (Port Adelaide second rounder)

Are you allowed to choose which picks you give up or does it have to be your next available pick/s? If it's the former then the Suns could quite easily keep at least one of their top 10 picks. If it's the latter then I suppose they could use picks 6 and 27 (2454 pts) to secure Bowes, use their 10th pick normally, then let's say Scheer is bid on at pick 14 (1161 pts) they could use pick 19 (948 pts) to secure Scheer with the academy discount which would equate to 928 pts. Then they use picks 22 and 24 normally.

So, in that situation, the Suns secure the number 1 pick in Bowes, the 10th pick, Scheer at pick 14, the 22nd pick and the 24th pick. The benefits are becoming very clear when it comes to trading for future draft picks!
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My understanding is that it's on a next pick basis. So if Bowes gets bid on then pick 6 and 10 in this above situation would be used, with pick 10 moving back to pick 60 if my calculations are correct.

Here is a whole long document with all the bidding info for anyone wanting all the complete details of the rules: http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

SandyToes said:
I think Knightmare is right in pointing out that most of our top 10 picks have been outstanding quality
You would have to be Nostradamus to have predicted the carnage to Prestia Swallow and O'Meara and Ablett
Those 4 on the park consistently I would argue there would be less injuries all round.It's my belief the injury cycle we are enduring ,in part,relates to the extra effort our fit players have to produce to compensate for the missing elites
Also agree that our major area of disappointment has been mature recruiting.I would add in Clayton's defence that I believe in the early days we took the best that was available.The talent GWS was a able to tap a couple of years later wasn't on offer in 2010
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Gold Coast's picks have in the most part relatively been pretty good. There have been the misses. Sam Day, Daniel Gorringe etc. But that happens with all clubs at some point. If you're relatively at the positions you pick doing better than other teams, then you're relatively doing well.

Again by comparison to GWS' list build. If we limit our discussion to young talent identification, and ignore the established senior players from opposition lists. GWS relatively are gaining their second relative advantage in their list build through their superiority of academy talent. GWS have already identified and added talent via their academy, and have another five this year who are potential top 20 selections. Gold Coast by contrast only this year are through the clubs academy going to get the ball rolling with some high level talents in Bowes and Scheer to be added.

So there are the two very concrete reasons why GWS have moved quite significantly ahead of Gold Coast in the list building process. With GWS performing better in both opposition talent identification and the identification and to a lesser extent (though GWS are said not to do much with) development of their academy talents. They're the areas Gold Coast need to catch up to GWS in.
 
Knightmare said:
My understanding is that it's on a next pick basis. So if Bowes gets bid on then pick 6 and 10 in this above situation would be used, with pick 10 moving back to pick 60 if my calculations are correct.

Here is a whole long document with all the bidding info for anyone wanting all the complete details of the rules: http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf



Gold Coast's picks have in the most part relatively been pretty good. There have been the misses. Sam Day, Daniel Gorringe etc. But that happens with all clubs at some point. If you're relatively at the positions you pick doing better than other teams, then you're relatively doing well.

Again by comparison to GWS' list build. If we limit our discussion to young talent identification, and ignore the established senior players from opposition lists. GWS relatively are gaining their second relative advantage in their list build through their superiority of academy talent. GWS have already identified and added talent via their academy, and have another five this year who are potential top 20 selections. Gold Coast by contrast only this year are through the clubs academy going to get the ball rolling with some high level talents in Bowes and Scheer to be added.

So there are the two very concrete reasons why GWS have moved quite significantly ahead of Gold Coast in the list building process. With GWS performing better in both opposition talent identification and the identification and to a lesser extent (though GWS are said not to do much with) development of their academy talents. They're the areas Gold Coast need to catch up to GWS in.
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This is correct and is why we need to move some picks to the front of the draft, getting Melbournes pick was a waste of time at the moment as is doesn't get us anything we couldn't of got with 3rd round picks that add up to the same points
 
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SandyToes said:
I think Knightmare is right in pointing out that most of our top 10 picks have been outstanding quality
You would have to be Nostradamus to have predicted the carnage to Prestia Swallow and O'Meara and Ablett
Those 4 on the park consistently I would argue there would be less injuries all round.It's my belief the injury cycle we are enduring ,in part,relates to the extra effort our fit players have to produce to compensate for the missing elites
Also agree that our major area of disappointment has been mature recruiting.I would add in Clayton's defence that I believe in the early days we took the best that was available.The talent GWS was a able to tap a couple of years later wasn't on offer in 2010
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Spot on ST. I reckon if you go back to 2012-2013 you'll find most posters thinking our original mature agers (Ablett, Rischa, Bock etc) were better than GWS (Power, McDonald, Brogan...), but they've since added guns like Mumford, Shaw, Patful, Griffin, Johnson whereas we've totally ****ed up with Malceski, Grant, Murphy etc. Ablett is now getting old whereas Ward and Scully are hitting their prime.
 
Corkie said:
I emailed Ashcroft yesterday asking for a members Q&A night with the footy dept heads this week. Where we can hear first hand from Ashcroft, Clayton, Eade & other coaches what our plans & strategies are for the remainder of the season. And give us an opportunity to ask constructive questions. Not a bagging session but something to reinvigorate our faith. Unfortunately no reply yet!
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image.jpeg

Just got my reply. Big thumbs up to the club.
 
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