Analysis Players that we miss the most

[flaps]

Richo.

 

[flaps]

Bowden as well

 

[Final Siren]

I love stats like this, because they zero in on what we really care about: wins and losses. I used to hate J. Post being in the team, not just because it usually meant someone better was injured, but because he made everyone around him play worse. You can't really measure "blokes not spreading from half-back because they're worried Post is about to turn it over," but you can see a correlation between Post's selection and poorer overall team performance.

I did something similar in 2012, which also pointed to Foley as being important for us, with the team doing much better with him in it.

Which reminds me, this is a chart of our 2014 season, comparing the final margin to the predicted betting line (which is a good general measure of how we were expected to perform):

Richmond 2014: Margin vs Betting Line​

Green is a win. Red is a loss. Columns stretching up from zero means we did better than expected (beat the line): the higher the column, the more we beat expectations. Columns going down from zero means we did worse than expected (failed to beat the line.) So:

Red stretching down: Bad loss. We lost a game that we were expected to win or at least be more competitive.

Red stretching up: Honourable loss. We lost but got closer than expected.

Green stretching down: Hollow victory. We won but not by as much as expected.

Green stretching up: Good win. We won a game that we were expected to lose or at least not win by so much.

(Edit: Whoops, forgot Port Adelaide. Must have suppressed the memory. Now added.)

 

[blunt_tiger]

I love stats like this, because they zero in on what we really care about: wins and losses. I used to hate J. Post being in the team, not just because it usually meant someone better was injured, but because he made everyone around him play worse. You can't really measure "blokes not spreading from half-back because they're worried Post is about to turn it over," but you can see a correlation between Post's selection and poorer overall team performance.

I did something similar in 2012, which also pointed to Foley as being important for us, with the team doing much better with him in it.

Which reminds me, this is a chart of our 2014 season, comparing the final margin to the predicted betting line (which is a good general measure of how we were expected to perform):

Richmond 2014: Margin vs Betting Line​

Green is a win. Red is a loss. Columns stretching up from zero means we did better than expected (beat the line): the higher the column, the more we beat expectations. Columns going down from zero means we did worse than expected (failed to beat the line.) So:

Red stretching down: Bad loss. We lost a game that we were expected to win or at least be more competitive.

Red stretching up: Honourable loss. We lost but got closer than expected.

Green stretching down: Hollow victory. We won but not by as much as expected.

Green stretching up: Good win. We won a game that we were expected to lose or at least not win by so much.

(Edit: Whoops, forgot Port Adelaide. Must have suppressed the memory. Now added.)

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