Quigley's 2010 Mock (Not for the hard of reading)

[Quigley]

Okay I have been on holidays on a very nice tropical island for the last week which has been great but internet is very restricted. I will be here another week or so so I might not be on much to answer any questions. When I get back though I will field the ones I can.

The usual disclaimer – I do not get to see a whole lot of these kids and am often to make judgements on small snippets. That is sometimes unfair and often make cause me to be fairly divergent from others who may have seen more of the particular kids. I also tend to base quite a lot of my opinion on Champs form. Some people think this is a poor reflection of some guys because often the kids are played out of position or pick up taggers for the first time. Personally I like it because you see how the kids perform in adverse conditions and adapt. Also it is good to see how the TAC players step up against teams with more talent across the board then they face week in week out in the TAC.

Overall I think this might be the hardest year I have been associated mocked on. I am never close but this year I think I will be further from the money than ever. The first 15 or so are pretty clear cut but from there the talent level is very even. I think there are probably 120 or more guys with legitimate chances of being taken in the national draft and I could easily see a team falling in love with any of them and taking them in the second round.

A few key things about my draft:

• My aim is not to pick players where they are likely to go in the real thing.
• My aim is to pick players based on how good they will be in 3 years for mids and 5 years for talls.
• I do try to give teams players who will suit them and so I may move some guys up or down in my ratings if they suit a particular team eg see Bennell.
• I will be wrong on how high I rate a player and it doesn’t worry me. I apologise to anyone I have been overly harsh on.
• When in doubt I will side against the Victorians. I think there is a lot of pro-Victorian bias on BF, in the media and even with club recruiters. I am doing my own little bit to redress the balance.
• I aim to make people think and deliberately throw some smokies in there and drop others. Despite some of you thinking I am being ridiculous I do rate the people where I have them.
• I have not forgotten anyone. Its simply that I do rate the likes of Barden, Michie etc as high as you. Get over it.
• You might notice this year I have put in returns in my reviews. The whinging of some of the EDT guys finally made an impression – and I also finished a little ahead of usual and have a bit of time to edit.

A few general observations:

· The top of this draft is definitely affected by the guys taken by the GC last year but there will still be some elite players taken in the top 15. The difference is that there is more risk of those guys flopping than usual.
· This year’s crop might be the strongest marking group I have seen. There are a lot of very good marks this year.
· The handballing skills of this group are relatively poor compared with most years. As always there are exceptions.
· The medium distance flat laser kick is not a skill very prevalent this year.
· This is a good year if you are after an inside mid and are prepared to expend a first round pick on one. Outside mids will be very hit and miss although a lot of the usual outside mids might be playing as HBFers. The half back flanker crop is strong and deep. The standard of small forwards is poor and I wouldn’t be spending a high pick on any of the U18 prospects.
· There are a couple of reasonable KP prospects available early but overall the quality of this year’s KP crop is pretty poor. With the forwards there are a few prospects I like a bit later in the draft but even then they have injury issues associated with them. If you miss out on the top 2 defenders you are picking guys with very big question marks over them even if they are capable of playing the position.
· I like 4 rucks in this draft quite a lot but after that I would be waiting for the rookie draft or taking a mature aged player.

Alright on with the show.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 1 Gold Coast

No surprise given they committed to Swallow last year as the number 1.

David Swallow

Complete package as a midfielder blah blah blah. No surprise here so I am not going to bother with the write up. I haven’t seen him play this year anyway.


Pick 2 Gold Coast

They have a few nice forward prospects but at this age they are often difficult to get a good read on and so there is no way I can see them passing on the best KPF prospect to come along in the last 5 years.

Sam Day
DOB 6/11/92 Ht 196 Wt 96

This kid is the complete package and if I was putting together a new team he would be the first guy I select. It is pretty rare to find a natural footballer with such athletic gifts. He has the look of a young Nick Reiwoldt and is as close to a can’t miss prospect as you would be able to find for a KPF at this age. He will be selected as a forward in this draft but he is also a very capable defender and his goal numbers at the Champs were probably down a bit due to the time he spent down back at CHB. I personally see him as a KPF but I know some feel he might lack a little of forward instincts (see below that I disagree pretty strongly) and could instead be a once in a lifetime defender. I watched him against Tasmania play in that role and he was extremely good matched up on guys usually smaller and supposedly more agile then he was. I think he got Gilbee a fair bit and shut him down. This is not an easy thing to do as I rate Gilbee pretty highly.

It’s a shame that Day had to play in the SA finals and had to miss the Combine as I think he might have given the jumping records a real shake. His leap is phenomenal and watching he and Jurrah sit on people’s heads for the next 10 years is going to be a treat. If you watched the televised game against Vic Country you know what I mean. Watching the game live you often think Day has misjudged the ball coming and has run under it and then the kid just jumps and keeps going up. He has exceptionally strong hands and clunks them if he gets his hands on the ball. Below the knees he also has very clean hands and combined with his agility he plays like a much smaller man when the ball is on the ground. He has good speed and creates separation without any difficulty at junior level. Endurance wise I have yet to see him tested on the field but I would suggest there may be some room for improvement there. He can be a little bit inconsistent with his repeat leads currently and his forward defensive pressure is something which needs to improve. Given how team oriented he appears in other aspects of his game I think the defensive pressure issue may be a function of a limited endurance base rather than a lack of effort.

He is very unselfish on the park and will not just blaze away for goal when he gets it. He will look for his open teammates and he usually takes excellent options. He will also put his body on the line for teammates and do the little things which are often the difference between a good and an excellent team. Up to date he has very much been a part time footballer with both basketball and baseball taking up a lot of time for him. If not for AFL it is highly likely that he would be heading to the US next year on a college scholarship for one or both these sports. The kid is a gifted all around athlete and once he focuses on AFL full time I think the sky is the limit.

His field kicking is good as is his kicking for goal. He is a right footer with outside 50 range and is also a capable kicker on his left. He is clever around goal (not quite Steve Johnson but that sort of thing) and is not afraid to grubber through from a tight angle or turn and throw it on the left. Body shape wise at the moment he is a lot like Dustin Fletcher with long arms and a thin-ish build but he has a decent set of shoulders on him and he should fill out nicely. At the end of the day I expect him to be built somewhere between Nick Reiwoldt and Jonathan Brown i.e. a powerful presence no matter which end he more closely favours.

Overall the kid is a special talent and whichever end he ends up playing I think he will be an elite player. He is a gift for the Gold Coast.


Pick 3 Gold Coast

Although it appears that Bennell is a certainty here I have taken Gaff instead. Personally I don’t rate Bennell all that highly and I think Gaff will be better. Gold Coast need a midfielder with one of their first two as I think they will take more talls than mids from here on. They already have a fair few talented mids but there is a definite need for another and one who can provide a link from defense would be definitely handy.

Andrew Gaff
DOB 16/6/92 Ht 182 Wt 78

Gaff is a very special package and I consider him a virtual certainty to be at least a very good player in the AFL. There has been a fair bit of talking of him down in various BF circles and personally I am not seeing what the trouble is. Firstly what he is not – he is not a hard nosed inside ball winner. He is capable of winning his own ball when it is his turn but he is predominantly an outside receiver. He will shark packs and pick up balls that fall his way but mostly he will position himself to receive or use his endurance to create space. At the champs he often played as a link man between the defense and the midfield. He is a great safety valve who is always open and when he gets the ball he does good things with it. He has also shown himself to be a capable goal scoring half forward at TAC level but personally I think he has more value behind the ball where he can use his endurance to best effect.

His kicking is often criticised and I think this is way off base. The popular opinion is all he can do is chip it around and he can’t kick over a jam tin. This is not right. He actually has pretty good penetration on his kicking when he decides to use it. The thing is though that he rarely does. He likes to play within his limits and he excels at that. When he gets in a full time environment I am sure that you will start to see him kicking it a lot further because he will be more confident and the players he is playing with will be open and working further down the field. His short to mid range kicking is exceptional. He picks good targets and then hits them often with the running taking the ball in stride. When he goes with the shorter options he does tend to lean back on his kick which does rule out a change to a longer option but the lean does tend to give him excellent feel on his shorter kicks. He is a left footer and is pretty one sided. He occasionally uses his right but looks awkward doing it and occasionally gets into trouble trying to get onto the left rather than using his right. Although he plays more behind the ball than ahead of it he does occasionally get forward and is a pretty reasonable shot on goal. When he gets the ball in scoring distance his eyes tend to light up and he will lock on goal rather than opting to give off. Not selfish but sure in his ability to put it through given the chance.

He has excellent game sense and he reads the play exceptionally well. He runs to the right places, evaluates the situation quickly and will take the best option nine times out of ten. He does not rush his disposal under pressure and will take that extra second or two needed for his target to pop open. If there is a criticism I think he could do more of the little team things coaches love like shepherding. Tackling as well is not a strength of his and is something that will be worked on at the next level. He has elite endurance (he won the 3km in 10 mins flat and did a 15.3 in the beep test) and uses that well going forward where not only does he show good endurance but elite gut running ability. Quite simply there is no-on who can go with him at AFL level. He probably needs to use his running power a little more often when the ball is going the other way. His other tests were all pretty average (not bad just middle of the pack). He is not a hugely quick player and tends not to play with a whole lot of pace but you do not often see him caught and you do see him running away from his pursuers quite often. He is fairly thin at the moment but he does have reasonable legs and looks like he will bulk up fine as he gets older. He does need to work on his strength and his core strength in particular and he gets buffeted around in the air a bit. He is a reasonable mark but I would not say this was a strength of his. His character, dedication and intellect are exceptional and should stand him in good stead at the next level.

Overall he is a the lowest risk prospect in this draft. At worst you are going to get a very good player. His ceiling is very underrated and I think there are few who have more upside potential.


Pick 4 West Coast

Personally I would have Bennell at about 9 but for the fact that he would ideally suit the needs of West Coast. They really need some flair and that is what Bennell offers more than anything else. West Coast have meat and potatoes guys coming out their wahzoo. They need guys who can break the lines, pick apart defences and finish when they get an opportunity. All these things Bennell can do when on song.

Harley Bennell
DOB: 2/10/92 Ht: 185 Wt: 74

In my opinion Bennell is the worst performing Larke Medallist I can recall. His first three games were good to excellent but he was VERY ordinary in the last two games against NSW and Metro. Anyone watching those games would wonder what all the fuss was about. Personally I think he has a lot going for him but he is by no means a sure thing and if I was investing a number 2 in him I would be nervous. He is often compared with Daniel Wells and that is a very good comparison and gives you a good idea of both his strengths and weaknesses. He is a smooth mover who has good pace and a stride that can eat up the ground. He was listed at the Champs at only 180 but interestingly he measured in at 185 so he might have grown a bit over the course of the year. That certainly helps him.

He has a very nice leap and is a very difficult match-up up forward for someone of his height. He reads the ball very well in the air and usually times his jump to take the ball at the top of his jump. When the ball hits the ground he also has a fantastic knack of being in the right place at the right time – it happens so often you have to conclude this is a skill rather than luck. Out on the wing and when he has time and space he can be (but is not always) a very smart user of the ball and weights his passes very nicely. When he acts on instinct he also comes up with some head-scratchingly good things. When he has time to think though things get more hit and miss and his decision making can be a little suspect and when he is under pressure it is worse than that. In the contests or when in danger of being tackled he is very prone to giving off a suicide handball to his receiver or looping it to no-one in particular. I think his handball skills are a lot worse than you would like to see from such a well regarded prospect.

Kicking wise he is very clever around goal and if he gets the chance he will usually slot it. He reminds me a lot of Steve Johnson around goal and he definitely has a bit of magic about him in the forward line. His often chips his set shots rather than kicking through the ball but at the end of the day provided they go through the big sticks you can’t really complain. At the Champs he finished with a very nice 14 goals from his 5 games and in the WAFL he has been a goal a game player this year. He is only slight but is not afraid to fly for the mark and can get up there and has very good body control in the air and excellent hands in the marking contest.

In the middle of the ground he tends to hang off pack and receive the ball although he will often try and attack the ball at pace. In the clearances he is very clean picking up the ball but I do not find his hands particularly quick and I do not really see him as ever likely to be a truly effective clearance player. If he is up the ground you want him out in space and receiving ie very much on the outside. At the moment he is very susceptible to a tag in the midfield and if he gets any sort of attention he is prone to disappear. At the Champs the WA players looked to use him at every opportunity whether that was wise or not. He averaged 19.6 disposals a game at the Champs and 16 per game in the WAFL. Bennell does not work at all defensively and he is going to be in for a rude shock in this respect when he hits the AFL. He should start in the AFL as a small forward and his goal sense should see him do pretty well. He will play some midfield but he does not have the endurance to do this at AFL speed for any significant length of time at the moment.

Overall there are significantly higher risks associated with Bennell than you would want from a top 3 pick. He has a lot of flair and a very high ceiling but his floor is pretty low and the chances of him being closer to his floor than his ceiling is entirely too likely for me to consider him this high if I was picking for my team.


Pick 5 Brisbane
Brisbane moved up to 5 to take a specific player and I am damn sure it will not be Green. Much more likely it will be Gaff, Heppell, Polec or Atley that gets taken here but I rate Green as the best inside mid in this draft and I would have no trouble if we did take him here. The Lions are very interested in Green and I expect they are hoping he falls through to 25. The Lions need a ball winning mid with good skills and preferably excellent pace. Green would offer all that.

Joshua Green
DOB 24/8/92 Ht 177 Wt 76

It is no surprise to anyone who has read my mocks over the years to see me pump up a Div 2 guy or two each year. This year I love Josh Green and in all honesty I have not been this high on a Div 2 since Cyril (who I also had rated at 5 in his year). Green does not have the X factor that Cyril had but he also does not have the red flags that Cyril had and he will, from day one, play right in the thick of things in the midfield. I have Green this high for the simple fact that I rate him this high and believe he is the best inside midfielder in this draft. In addition to his inside ability he is also excellent outside and a more than capable small forward.

At ruck contests he most commonly sets up behind the ball at the bounce and is excellent at working himself into space. He reads the play well off hands and accelerates into the pack to win the ball and try and burst out the other side. If the ball does not fall his way he positions himself to receive if his teammate wins the ball. He invariably manages to get himself free and available. In the contest he has good core strength and clears his arms very well. If the opposition gets the ball he throws himself in to tackle and he is one of the better tacklers available this year. He plays with a fantastic tenacity that I am sure will see him succeed at the next level not only offensively but defensively as well. When the ball is on the ground he will run through walls to get to it and when the opposition gets it he will pursue the ball dropping off one man and going to the next if he can.

His inside work has been compared to Greg Williams and that is very high praise indeed. That comparison got a fair bit of air play in the media and led to the assumption that he was slow. I am very glad to see that he cleared that falsehood up at the Combine when he clocked a very nice 2.92 in the 20m. This was not a surprise as when you watch him live you often see him run away from those marking him whether in the middle or up forward. It is interesting to note that he is currently working off a pretty low endurance base and yet he gets to every contest. His elite gut running ability will stand him in good stead when he steps up to AFL level and works on his endurance base. He averaged 25 possessions a game at the Champs and played better the better the opposition stepping up and controlling the play for an outmanned Tasmania against the Div 1 powerhouses. He was injured in the last game for Tasmania suffering broken ribs and a punctured lung. This kept him out for about 6 or 7 weeks and out of sight of even those amateurs who might have been keeping an eye on Tasmania. He returned for the major semi final in the TSL and was straight back into the best with a lazy 28 possessions first game back. He has been playing seniors for over a year and has been doing it well. The break did not help his endurance base but he worked through that in the TSL finals and used it to put in a very reasonable beep test time. He was not able to repeat that in the 3km which I think gives a better indication of his fitness base.

He is a right footer but is very capable on his left and will not shy away from taking a pot shot on his left if given the chance. He does not have massive penetration on his kicking but he gets it where it needs to go and the weighting of his kicks is usually very good. His vision is most often good but he does occasionally take a less than premium option. He is a one touch player and is very clean with the ball on the ground and is very good overhead marking above his height with regularity. Up forward he uses his superior abilities to read the ball off hands to be a very good crumber. He can get out on the lead and create separation with his pace. If he is played initially as a small forward I think he should do pretty well. He is creative around goal and certainly knows where they are. On top of all that he was also nominated as the best interviewee at Combine on the AFL website and was described as an impressive young man by the Lions recruiting staff.

Overall Tasmanians tend to be pretty invisible to most recruiting teams which is a shame because we have a big talent here I think. The only real knock on him from my perspective is he is a little on the short side. Playing in the middle of the ground and playing tall I think more than compensates.


Pick 6 Richmond

The Tigers are apparently very keen on Heppell and if he is available I am sure they will take him. Lynch is also highly regarded down at the Tigers. Notwithstanding that I rate Polec more highly than either of those two and so I am going to take Polec instead. The predominantly outside Polec will complement the current group very well. He gives them another excellent kicking mid to keep Reiwoldt happy.

Jared Polec
DOB 12/10/92 Ht 188 Wt 77

Polec was one of the keys for SA this year and is a very promising outside player who can go in and win the ball when its his turn. He won more than his fair share of contested ball at the Champs despite this not really being his speciality. His performances at the Champs really put him up in lights. He showed great competitiveness, quickness and skills. He works hard for his team both when he has the ball and when he doesn’t. He will shepherd when called on to spring his man and after seeing the Lions players be incapable of doing that I can assure you those kind of things are important to winning games.

He plays with good pace and is very much a run and carry type of player. He is a smooth mover on the park and eats up the ground with his long stride. When you combine that with a long left foot he is the kind of player that can break zones apart. It is a common misconception that he has elite pace – he doesn’t. He plays smartly and uses what pace he has very well but timewatch speed he does not have. He did not do any testing at the Combine or State Screening (he played finals in the SANFL so did not attend the Compbine) but I am sure all the teams will be well aware of his previous results. But like I said he chooses his moments and certainly looks like he has pace.

With the ball in hand he is very composed and takes his time to evaluate the situation and take the best option or allow the play to develop in front of him. His kicking also holds up well under pressure which is not something which is not that common at this level. His delivery into 50 is excellent and he will in most cases put the ball to his forward’s advantage. When he gets into range himself he is a finisher and you can expect him to pick up close to a goal a game playing on the wing.

He is long and rangey and is good overhead in contested marking situations and is clean below the knees. He is able to swoop in and pick up a half volley at pace and continue on without losing much. In the contest his hands are not impressive and he tends to fumble a little and take a little too much time getting the ball out (i.e. slow hands). He returned from an excellent Champs and started playing first team football in the SANFL and he had a very strong finish to the year although perhaps he was not as impressive as teammate Brodie Smith in senior company. He has good core strength for a long lean guy and he maintains his feet well in the contest. He prides himself on his defensive work and he is a reasonable but not fantastic tackler. He sees himself as a Steven Hill type player and that is not a bad comparison but he is not nearly as quick nor does he have quite the penetration on his kicking that Hill has. On the positive side though I think he is more of an all around mid being better in the contests than Hill and more prepared to get in and do the dirty work.

Overall he is a very nice outside in midfield prospect. He has stepped up and played very well as the competition has gotten harder and there is absolutely no reason to think that won’t continue in the AFL.



Pick 7 Gold Coast

The Gold Coast could go any number of ways here but with Essendon most likely to go midfield at pick 8 any tall they were after is likely to be there when they pick again at 9. So I think they will go small and when you look 4 or 5 years into the future I think they would be best served looking to pick up an in and under ball winner. Smith and Caddy are the obvious candidates and one of them will be available here. Polec is also a possibility here.

Brodie Smith
DOB 14/1/92 Ht 189 Wt 78

I originally had Smith down a bit lower than this but an SA guy whose opinion I trust is very high on him and rates him ahead of Polec and compares his game to that of Judd as a junior. I see more than a few holes in his game but I am willing to put him this high on spec. Like Judd he does not have the traditional inside mid build being tall and relatively lean but he has good core strength and probably the quickest hands of any prospect available this year. He reads the ball very well off the rucks hands and where he most resembles Judd is in his attack on the ball at pace in clearance situations. He will hang back and when he sees the ball he will attack and aim to come out the other side with the ball. He makes quick decisions and clears the ball pretty well from the contest. What he does quicker than anyone I have ever seen is get the ball from hand onto his foot. He uses this skill quite a bit to clear the ball from clearances. He wins the ball and then as quick as you can blink he slams it onto his foot and pumps it forward.

He is a big kick and has excellent penetration (we are talking 60m here) unfortunately he does tend to be a little indiscriminate over all distances. Smith is capable of lasering it in to a man but all too often he misjudges his range either overhitting or underhitting his passes. I have heard it said that he is a bit lazy with his kicking (that is he doesn’t always concentrate when kicking) and that may be true. He is a right footer but is also capable of getting good penetration on his left.

What a lot of people comment on when they see him play is how quick he is. This is a little deceiving as he does not time quick but he just makes the most of the little quickness he has. He has good game pace rather than stopwatch pace. At the Combine this was borne out for all to see when he timed in the same region as Sidebottom did a few years ago i.e. right at the bottom. He has good endurance and this allows him to get to contests and to make use of what pace he has. Despite woeful 20m times it is interesting to note that he timed pretty near the middle of the pack in the repeat sprints.

He is a good accumulator and has a reasonable outside game. At the Champs he averaged 22 possessions a game. What he does a lot is sneak around the back of a man with the ball ala Ablett and collect and go forward with it. He also plays time in the back half and is a more than capable small defender. He probably played more in the back half in the SANFL this year than in the midfield. Although he is still fairly lean he has good balance and strength. Where he is not so good is in the marking contest which would be one of his weaknesses even at junior level. He tends to not judge the ball very well in the air and just does not find himself in the right spot. The other area where he definitely needs to improve if he expects to play regularly at the next level is in the tackle. At present his tackling technique looks more like he is going in for the cuddle. He does not commit, is all arm and consequently is easily brushed aside. He finished the year very strongly in the SANFL and excelled in the finals which would have boosted his stock a fair bit.

Overall I think Smith is a very nice inside mid prospect who should start the year in defence. His penetration on his kicking is as good as anyone’s in this draft and if he could add some feel to his kicks he could be a real weapon.


Pick 8 Essendon

It seems assured that Essendon will go small here I think. They need to get some more class in their small brigade and with the likes of couple Caddy, Smith, Polec and Atley available they have the chance to get a good one. The way I have things going Heppell is available although I expect either Brisbane or Richmond will take on the day. It happens that I don’t really rate Heppell so I will go with a guy that I do. I have gone with Atley as I think he is the best in and under available and would provide Watson with some much needed heavy lifting help. A quality kicker would also be handy here and Polec would be a big chance if available. There is some thought that they might take Gorringe as a long term replacement for Hille but I can’t see it.

Shaun Atley
DOB 13/9/92 Ht 189 Wt 81

Atley was a very popular choice around Champs time but has fallen in the eyes of many whilst others like Heppell finished the year very strongly. People are fickle and quickly dropped him when he missed a lot of the latter half of the year with a broken finger. Its often what have you done for me lately. When he was getting talked around the Champs I thought he was a little overrated as a potential 4 pick and I thought around the 7 or 8 was more his level and I have left him here despite his injury problems.

He has the potential to be an elite inside mid and you jump at the chance to take that sort of player in the lower part of the top 10. Atley doesn’t actually look like an inside player when you see him play as he is long and lean and you would think of he would be playing on a wing or flank. With that said he does have an excellent inside skill set. He reads the ball off hands well and has a nice burst of speed from a standing start which allows him to clear packs. He uses this a lot and generally is a player who plays with speed. Some guys time well but don’t play quick whereas Atley brings his speed onto the park with him and makes it a weapon. He models his game on Chris Judd and he has that kind of ball winning and style potential. Judd is also a tallish inside player but its Judd’s ability to hit the ball at pace and come out the other side of packs that has set him apart over the course of his career. For a tallish player with a still pretty slight build he has excellent core strength and he can hold his feet over the ball and break tackles very well. That will be harder to do at AFL level but Atley is also agile and elusive on his feet and he uses that to create lot of arm tackles that he can break much more easily. He has reasonably quick hands in close without being exceptional.

In the open he is a reasonable mark of the ball who judges it in flight pretty well and makes good ground. He does need to work on spreading to receive more from a contest and getting to good spots to receive on the outside. He is a well balanced kick with reasonable penetration. His kicking is often referred to in a negative light but I actually like his style especially when he has time. The problems when they arise are either from an excess of confidence in his own ability to thread a needle or from poor option taking. I probably haven’t seen enough of him to make a call either way but the former is much more preferable and would hold him in much higher stead with recruiters. He often seems to take dangerous options although usually his man is in a reasonable position and if it comes off his team would be in a good position. Teams would also like to see him as more of a goal scoring threat. He does not get into position to get shots on goal and when he does he is not a great finisher. Back to the positives, Atley would be one of the best tacklers in the draft this year. He has good technique and works hard to shut down his players. He averaged 6 tackles a game at the Champs.

Overall inside mids are often difficult to pick but Atley is a good chance to pay off for the team that takes him and he potentially could be elite with his athletic talents.


Pick 9 Gold Coast

Gold Coast are in need of some help at the back and there is nothing surer then them taking McCarthy I think it’s just a matter of when. He is the best all around KPD available this year and with the need to plan for the future they will take him.

Patrick McCarthy
DOB 11/3/92 Ht 196 Wt 84

McCarthy is in my opinion the best KPD available this year. Not only is he is a good athlete he is also has a very good football brain. What I rate most about him is his composure under pressure. One of his other main strengths in my opinion is his ability to read the play in general and the ball coming in in particular. Quite simply he is a rock at the back, rarely out of position and when he gets the ball he directs play and takes really good options. He is not rushed into mistakes by pressure and he when nothing is open he will take the ball out or put in a position where it is least likely to come back the other way rather than forcing it.

For me he plays a lot like Dustin Fletcher and has a build to match. He has the same long lean build and long arms which he uses to great effect. He tends to mark more than punch at the moment but he is rarely beaten in the air and at the next level I am sure he will adapt to needing to spoil more. His contested marking is probably a weakness at the moment and something which he needs to develop if he is going to hold his own at AFL level. Something to remember with McCarthy though is that he has really only come from a long way back in the last 18 months. He has improved out of sight in that time and is still getting used to playing against better and stronger players. His strength is something that will be worked on hard next year and although it is unlikely that he will ever be a massive build he should improve in a full time environment.

With the ball in hand he is a reasonable kick although probably not elite. In his case I think his decision making makes his kicking look better than it maybe is. Still his style is nice and there is absolutely nothing wrong with it. He does not have the penetration of the likes of Watson but compares favourably with all the other talls out there. He is equally solid by hand with good quick hands and he hits his targets in stride and where they want it. Below the knees he is clean and capable of picking up balls on the run. He needs to work on his tackling as he currently gets brushed a bit too much and uses his arms too regularly rather than his shoulder. If I was looking at him I would be hoping a bit of technique and strength work will sort that out. He has good closing speed to be effective at AFL level and carries the ball well running out of defense. As with most of the SA players who couldn’t make the Combine he didn’t test much which is a shame as I would have been interested in his results.

He played did not play seniors in the SANFL much if at all this year. That is not necessarily a detriment to talls as it does allow them to work on their game without the physical intensity of senior football. McCarthy got to play at the back but also some ruck and wing where he showed excellent mobility and go forward ability for a tall guy.

Overall at AFL level I see him becoming a CHF able to run with the big runners when necessary and able to slot back into a zone with equal comfort and use his ability to read the play to be where he needs to be. Going the other way he should provide excellent run and carry. This kid is a footballer and he should be a good one at that.


Pick 10 Gold Coast

This is not a typical Clayton pick. He generally likes his guys skinny, athletic and preferably with very little idea of how to play the game. Darling is none of those things but you never know Clayton might just get on board with the new trend of drafting footballers and do something which will set the team up down the track. Darling will start his career up forward and is capable of playing there from day one something which GC definitely need. Down the track as the other GC KPF prospects develop Darling could be moved into the midfield where I see his career taking off. Darling really suits the needs of GC and they would be crazy not to take him with one of their many first round picks.

Jack Darling
DOB 16/6/92 Ht 191 Wt 87

The popular choice on BF to drop right down the list. Personally I am not seeing it and if he were available anytime after pick 10 I would be snapping him up and laughing all the way to the bank. He is marked down by many because he is considered not tall enough nor athletic enough for the main position he has played to date – full forward. People also think he has benefited from playing most of his junior career as a man amongst boys and there is limited scope for improvement. On the face of it all that is true but it completely discounts his biggest weapon and something which could make him an elite player at AFL level – his football brain. The kid is a footballer and his ability to read the play, get to the right position and influence the play to the best advantage of his team is superb. This is not just leading out and kicking goals this is also shepherding, tackling, tapping the ball on, calling his teammates into a play, spoiling, being a physical presence and generally doing all the little things which help teams win. At 191 he also rucked in the forward line and managed a very respectable 28 hit outs. Like Tom Rockliff a couple of years ago you need to overlook what many believe to be his physical limitations and see the exceptional things that he can bring to a team.

Most people also have him pegged purely as a KPF and figure if he doesn’t make it there there is nothing else for him. The thing is he played plenty of midfield at the Champs and did it very well. I am sure the club recruiters were paying close attention to this because this is where I think his future lies. When he goes into the middle he is a very solid clearance winner and has GAJ-like core strength over the ball and just refuses to be moved. He covers a fair bit of ground and will get into the backline to help out if needed. I think he needs to improve his endurance levels to get the most out of himself as currently I think this area limited his repeat efforts, chases and ability to play through the midfield for extended periods. The fact that he had some OP last preseason might worry a few teams with plans for him in the midfield. He gets to space well when in the middle but not as often as he could if had more of a tank.

Darling managed to average 16 possessions per game at the champs splitting time up forward and in the midfield. He has very quick hands and is a good field kick of the ball. His options taking is excellent and he is very composed with the ball in hand taking the time for his options to open up rather than rushing things. He is a one touch player with very clean hands and is an exceptional mark overhead. He may struggle up forward in the AFL against bigger and faster opposition but he is a smart leader who gets separation despite not having great pace and with his hands he will always be dangerous. He is a nice shot for goal with range comfortably out to 50. He is perhaps not an exceptional shot for goal but is above average for a forward at junior or AFL level.

My biggest concern with him is off the field where he has been generating serious flags for the last year. There have always been a few concerns about him but getting excluded from the private school he attended and then being seriously hurt in a fight outside a nightclub would have many teams worried introducing him to their teams especially if they were a young team without a strong leadership group (eg the Gold Coast). Teams will be doing a lot of homework on his psyche.

Overall he reminds me most of at the moment is Morabito but down the track I think, if he is prepared to work, he could be a Jimmy Bartel type who can play in the middle or up forward.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 11 Gold Coast

I originally had the Gold Coast taking Lycett here who I rate as the best ruck available this year. With them taking Hickey however I don’t think they will waste another pick on Gorringe or Lycett given they already have Smith who I rate more highly than any ruck from the last two years. Hickey I had as the fourth best ruck available this year and with the talent they already have that spells trouble for Gorringe or Lycett going high. With that I decided to have them take the smokey that I originally had pegged for Adelaide at 14. Horlin-Smith has a lot of potential and I am sure a few teams are going to look to take him more highly than most expect.

George Horlin-Smith
DOB: 22/12/92 Ht: 186 Wt: 76

Probably the youngest player likely to be taken this year. He is a former Australian U16 Cricket captain and current player and has not yet committed to playing AFL. Him coming out and giving a firm commitment to AFL will probably be the difference between the late first, early second round and the late third or fourth round (note it now appears as though he has committed to AFL).

The big selling feature for Horlin-Smith is his vision. His vision and decision making skills are pretty much as good as anyone in this draft. He picks out guys he has no right to see let alone hit in a contested situation. He is a left footer but kicks with great touch off either foot. He needs to work on his kicking a bit for AFL football to flatten it out but he has nice fundamentals. It is very much worth bearing in mind that Horlin-Smith dedicated a large amount of his time to playing cricket and when played AFL it was pretty much exclusively in school football this year. When he gets into a full time AFL environment I am expecting him to come on in leaps and bounds as his training programs are tailored for AFL.

The other thing which you will notice when you see him playing is his marking ability. He has very strong hands overhead and plays very tall for his height. He is a bit of utility able to play all over the ground but I would expect him to start his career as a HFFer. His ability to be a dangerous marking target in the forward half and then pick out a target inside 50 under pressure is a fantastic skill to have. Down the track he will certainly move to the midfield although unlike many I see him more of an outside-in rather than an inside player. He moves to smart places on the field and always tends to find himself in space and these skills would be best utilised outside. He has a reputation as an inside player but I don’t rate his hands as quick as some but he is more than capable of winning his fair share of clearance ball. He is hard at the contest and has no trouble putting his head over the ball or going back with the flight.

Physically he has nice height and a build which should fill out nicely. The biggest drawback for him will be his athleticism. He tested very averagely at the Combine and pace will be the thing for which many may mark him down. He is still a fair bit ahead of Sidebottom’s time from memory but he is quite a way behind other options teams may be considering. Like Sidebottom I see his quick football brain more than making up for any slight lack of pace. It is worth noting that he was not selected for SA this year and has had some injury issues.

Overall I think see Horlin-Smith as a very talented football player who has an enormous amount of upside. His focus on cricket has seen him slip under the radar of many but I am sure teams have been keeping an eye on him.


Pick 12 Melbourne

Melbourne have a reasonable list with quality across basically all lines. With that said they could stand to add quality no matter what position so they are very likely to simply take the best player available. I think it is very likely that one or both of Lycett or Gorringe will be available here and both would be nice additions to develop behind Jamar and take over when the likes of Scully reach their prime. It’s equally likely that they could go with another midfielder and they could snare one of the last second tier mids available eg Smith, Polec, Atley or Caddy.

Scott Lycett
DOB 26/9.92 Ht 202 Wt 97

For me Lycett is the best ruck technician in this year’s draft crop and is the guy I would be picking if I wanted a ruck and was going to use a first rounder to grab one. Lycett dominated all comers in the ruck at the Champs with only Phillips from Tasmania really stepping up to give him a contest. He has good height and has a solid build. He is already a powerful man but is going to be an overpowering presence in the ruck contest once he finishes developing. He has a reasonable leap and has good body control in the air which allows him to get first hand on the ball and direct it with accuracy to his mids. He executes his taps very well and gives his midfielders every chance to come away with the ball.

When the ball hits the ground he recovers quickly and will pressure and tackle. He is not a big clearance winner in those situations but he definitely keeps his team in with a chance and reacts quickly. He is pretty agile for a big guy and has a good swerve that I saw him use on more than one occasion at the Champs. He seems to have a pretty reasonable top gear but it does take him a bit of time to get up to full pace. With that said I think he is one of the more elusive big men going around this year. Around the ground he is not a big ball winner (just over 12 per game at the Champs) but I do like the way he presents himself as an option in the wave going forward and once he builds his engine he might improve in this regard.

When he does get the ball he invariably just pumps it long. His kicking technique needs a fair bit of work and is the weakness of his game at present. He has a high release and just drops the ball rather than guiding it onto his boot. This is particularly a problem in front of goal where he is erratic to put it kindly. The way he plays he gets quite a few chances for goal but needs to improve his kicking technique so that he can take advantage of them. He is an excellent mark of the ball and if he can get his kicking sorted out he will be a very dangerous goal square threat. He uses his body well and gets good extension when going for the ball and usually times it so that he gets a crack at the ball at its highest point. With his height that makes him a difficult match up as does his tendency to mark slightly out in front of himself on the lead. He is also surprisingly good at snaffling the balls coming in low. With the new interchange rules we are coming into a time when it is going to be important for the rucks to have a second string to their bows and Lycett’s ability to double as a dangerous forward will be very handy and increases his worth. I am not sure how long he has been playing the game as I remember shaking my head at him conceding a goal by spiking it through the goal from a bounce. Then again an AFL ruck got done for the same thing this year. I do have to give him extra credit for being a Croweater with superb taste being a Lions supporter.

Overall I think he should develop into a top class ruck technician at worst. He also has the potential to become a significant around the ground and forward option.


Pick 13 Gold Coast

This pick might surprise some with me having taken McCarthy earlier. The thing is though that this is Gold Coast’s big chance to set themselves up for the future and they need to build structurally and not just take the best available player. They have Bock who will command a KPD spot for a few years and Coad who may or may not work out at AFL level but apart from that they don’t have much by way of KPD. They therefore need to address that in this draft and with two clear cut top defenders I would have no hesitation to snap them both up. This is especially the case with Watson who I rate as the best long kick in the draft. With he and Toy down back for the GC they will be hard to contain in the press zones because both can simply kick over the zones with great accuracy. Watson is a weapon going forward and coaches will be salivating about how they could use him.

Matthew Watson
DOB 16/7/92 Ht 195 Wt 102

For fans of Roy and HG meet the Brick with Eyes mark II. He is a big solid boy who already moves like a rugby league front rower. Unlike most U18 prospects when they go into the AFL he is someone who is going to have to try and keep weight off rather than bulk up. I can see a lot of diets, pilates and core strength work in his future. That is not to say he is fat its just that he is built like a block of flats. Despite his build though he does not play a physically domineering game but rather relies on superior ability to read the play and the ball in flight. He judges the situation very well and usually positions himself well with the ball coming in.

What sets Watson apart from all other talls in this draft and 95% of the smalls is his kicking. In my opinion he is the best kick in this draft. He has a weapon of a left foot that coaches will be drooling over. He has superb penetration, excellent accuracy and fantastic weight on his kicks. He is a zone buster and that gives him a lot of value given the current game style. His kicking makes him a difference maker at the back and someone other teams have to shut down. When you are playing FB that makes an interesting problem for opposition coaches as FFs traditionally are not the most keen shut down defenders. If an opposition does not go to him he will pick them apart. When the ball is with his teammates he gets to space well and is a good decision maker with the ball in hand. Admittedly he does need to work on his handballing but mostly you want him to be kicking the ball like you do with Drummond or Hurn two guys with similar kicks.

He sees himself as a CHB but realistically at AFL level he is a fullback and the team that gets him will try and mould him into a Brian Lake clone. He is not as good yet as Lake in the air but he there is plenty there to work on and like Lake he likes to back himself to mark the ball coming in. He is probably going to need to spoil more in the AFL but with his judgment he is going to mark plenty. Defensively he uses his body well in the contest and protects the drop zone well. At under 18 level if he sets up position his opposition is not going to move him. At the next level he will get into more wrestling matches against guys as strong as he is and it might take some adjustment. On the lead he has pretty good straight line speed (he went under 3 sec in the 20m at Combine) but I think some of the more clever FFs could give him trouble. Changing direction quickly is always going to be his problem I think with his bulk.

His endurance is another area which will definitely need to improve at the next level and an area which he really performed poorly at the Combine. At the moment he is getting by but wide ranging players or guys who put in a lot of repeat efforts can find him out. At present he uses his superior game reading play to cheat on the angles. With better kicks and smarter forwards he might have some issues in the future. With that said his technique very much suits a tough zone style defense. He fancies himself as a line breaker but I am not seeing that much myself. He may get up and gallop a little but mostly he just runs to the lines and kicks over the defense. I have absolutely no problem with that when you kick like him.

Overall Watson is a great kick but he is also more than that. He is a very nice defensive player who needs to work on a few things but he could be a great player for whoever picks him up.


Pick 14 Adelaide

Rendell has never been afraid to go against popular opinion but can he make the plain vanilla pick when a gift falls to him. I originally had Adelaide taking Horlin-Smith who looks like a normal Rendell type pick and could work nicely alternating with Dangerfield. If Gorringe is here though would they just take the best player available? They just traded for Jacobs so ruck is not a big need but Jacobs has not proved all that much yet and certainly not enough to pass up the opportunity to take a guy rated by most as the best ruck in this draft.

Daniel Gorringe
DOB 2/6/92 Ht 200 Wt 88

If your team is looking for a Fraser / Kreuzer type player then Gorringe is your man. By that I mean Gorringe has excellent mobility and around the ground potential but he is not so great is in the ruck contest itself. He has a good jump and against guys smaller than himself he shows good ability to tap to advantage and control the play. Against bigger guys (which is what he will be facing most weeks in the AFL) he can struggle and he rarely gets a tap to advantage and that is a concern for me. At the Champs he benefited a lot from he and Lycett being able to wear down opposing ruckmen and Lycett for the most part was the one who took the sting out of the number one ruck allowing Gorringe to clean up against the tiring number 1 and the back up ruck. He has grown a few centimeters this year which makes a real difference in his prospects of being able to play the ruck effectively in the AFL. He is still very light for a ruck and its likely that he will need at least a year to build the bulk and strength he needs to compete at the next level.

As mentioned when he gets first hands to the ball he controls it well and he also has exceptional recovery speed for a big guy. If he gets the ball his hands are quick and he will win a few clearances with the speed of his reactions. He is not a big tackler but he makes a few and this is something which will be worked on at the next level. Around the ground he is a very fluid mover and is nicely balanced both with and without the ball. He has good evasiveness for a big guy. I do not rate his overhead marking particularly highly but that is more because he doesn’t use it much for a big guy rather than him having stone hands. He needs to work on getting to good places to receive so that he can use his around the ground abilities to better effect.

Gorringe is a goal scorer and has a great skill of arriving at contests at just the right time. If he can’t get there for a mark he will time it so that he is going past when the mark or spillage occurs and has momentum going toward goal. He has good skills below the knees for a big guy and with the goal in sight he will collect and kick for goal quickly. He does not have a big bag of tricks kicking for goal but he knows where they are and is a good finisher when he gets a chance. He seems more of an around the ground ruck than someone who will rest up forward and present as a lead up option. This might affect his value a little with the new interchange rules coming in. At the moment I have some concerns about whether he will make it as a number 1 ruck against the bigger more skillful players he will be up against in the AFL and if he is a second ruck he really does need another string in his bow given teams are going to want to be using a part timer as their second ruck to carry three runners on the bench.

Overall he is an around the grounds ruck without great ruck skills and I could see him struggling at the next level. Accordingly I have him down the order a bit more than most.


Pick 15. Geelong

Geelong need to start restocking and I feel they will take the best player available no matter what position. Like Adelaide, Geelong are not afraid to go against popular opinion and take a guy they rate higher than everyone else. With that said if the likes of Caddy or Heppell are here they will snap them up. Green may also be a chance here and this is probably as high as he is realistically likely to go on draft day. Don’t discount Lycett or Gorringe if they are here either.

Josh Caddy
DOB 28/9/92 Ht 186 Wt 81

This is a little lower than most have Caddy but there are a couple of reasons one of the main ones being that from reports (from several people that know him) he is a tool. With the emphasis given to interviews and personality types these days I think he will get marked down for this. From older people associated with his club he is seen as a reasonable kid but I am yet to hear a good word from anyone close to his own age. With that said it didn’t stop Martin from going at 3 last year and having an excellent first year and the reports about him were at least as bad.

Playing style wise Caddy reminds me a lot of Cunnington from last year. He is a more mature body type and uses that body well at under 18 level to outmuscle his opposition. He doesn’t quite have the kamikaze attitude that Cunnington has but he is someone who commits to a contest and goes at it hardcore. This is particularly the case with marking in the forward line. Although predominantly a midfielder he is reasonably effective up forward. Anyone who takes him though will be taking him as an inside midfielder. He is a big clearance winner and is very much a bottom of the pack kind of inside mid and uses his strength at under 18 level to make space around himself. I do have some concerns about how well his game will translate to the AFL though. He have fairly clean hands and overall I would say he is an excellent collector of the ball who reads the taps better than virtually any of the midfield prospects this year. Once he gets the ball though I have issues.

His hands are not quick and his handballs can be pretty hit and miss. For an inside mid at AFL level this is likely to be a significant issue. Caddy also likes to collect the ball and take a few steps before handballing or more likely kicking the ball. He has good awareness of where players are in the contested situations and he runs to good spots to allow himself to get away with this. Its going to be a different story at AFL level however. AFL midfielders are going to be as big and strong as he is and in most case quicker (I know he timed very surprisingly good with a 2.93 but he still doesn’t play with pace) and will shut him down quickly and nail him with tackles rather than be brushed as is the case at under 18 level. He does not have the explosiveness or elusiveness to get past AFL standard players in a similar situation and he does not clear his arms as well as I would like in a tackle to compensate when caught. He takes his time well at the moment and is fairly composed under pressure but the way he plays he is going to be under pressure all the time and I am not sure he will cope as well as others. He is already prone to spraying his kicks a bit and has put a few out of bounds on the full in the games I have watched. There doesn’t seem to be anything particularly wrong mechanically with his kicking and indeed he seems to have pretty good penetration when he gets hold of it. His kicking efficiency is probably not very high because of the sheer number of kicks he executes in contested situations.

At the Champs he averaged 24 possessions per game and during the telecast of the last match it was mentioned that he was averaging 16 contested possessions in his 20 per game to that time. He only played three games in the Champs coming in underdone and improved with each match. He continued to improve and was one of the better players in the TAC in the latter part of the year.

Overall he is a solid but unspectacular inside mid prospect who performed extremely well at the Combine but doesn’t really play up to those results and nor does he do a lot of good things with the ball when he gets it. He is a teens pick for me.


Pick 16. Port Adelaide

Port are picking in a difficult spot in that it is likely that they will be picking one of the third tier of guys on draft day unless something like the above happens (ie. a couple of smokies are taken above them). I think they are in a situation where they have to back their judgment and swing for the fences. They need a fair bit all over the ground and so can take best available. If someone like Heppell were here they would snap him up very quickly. Class disposal is in short supply at Port at the moment.

Dyson Heppell
DOB 14/5/92 Ht 189 Wt 80

I do not rate Heppell as highly as most and I was tempted to slot him in higher to appease the masses but at the end of the day I decided its my mock and I will put him where I rate him. It’s interesting to note that at the Champs he was a second rounder probably with most draft watchers and now suddenly he is being talked of as a sure fire top 5 pick. Whilst he has some good attributes I am not sure he is the can’t miss prospect some consider him to be but then again I haven’t really been following him in the TAC where he has really come in at the end of the year since his move into the midfield. The amateur TAC watchers tend to place an enormous amount of credence in the end of the TAC season and Heppell dragging his team across the line in the Prelim Final with 40 posssessions certainly got their attention.

What gets mentioned most when people talk about Heppell is his kicking and he does have a lovely kicking style which generates excellent penetration. The thing is though that it is just as important to have good decision making and I am not sure Heppell’s decision making matches his pretty kick. He too often kicks to contests when it would be better to wait for something to develop or alternatively go shorter to an available man. Decision making is something which is very hard to teach and accordingly I am a little wary of taking him too highly. In tight I also do not rate his hands particularly highly and despite being a reasonable size he tends to get buffeted around in the contest both on the ground and in the air. There is a definite lack of core strength with him going to ground too easily. He is quick to recover but even so often the damage is done. Accordingly I think that he will be a wing or HBFer at AFL level. I am not sure a team should be thinking of drafting him as a midfield option.

Overhead he has reasonable hands but he does not maintain his balance in the air well enough to be considered a good mark. He also has a history of stress fractures which is concerning in a young player and this will have to be carefully managed at the next level. I have to admit though that large leaps have been made in managing this type of injury and it is probably not the issue it was 5 years ago. He missed 10 weeks in the preseason recovering from his injury and to recover and have the year he has had speaks very highly of his dedication and professionalism. His TAC coach holds him in the highest regard and rates him as the standout player he has coached at the Gippsland Power over the last two years and never misses an opportunity to pump up his tyres. Emma Quayle has also described him as smart, independent and level headed. He has worked very hard this year on polishing his game and working on the things that needed to improve.

One of the big things he needed to improve was his speed and he worked with a sprint coach to address this. It paid off at the Combine with him putting in a couple of 3 flat 20m time which is a credit too him. He still does not play with pace but he times a hell of a lot quicker than Sidebottom and Rockliff and it hasn’t stopped those guys having a big influence on the AFL in their first couple of years. I note that his repeat sprint times were very poor and his results there were anomologous with his 20m times. Overall the two results combined might have raised more queries than they answered. His other results were excellent though with him hitting 15 in the beep test (6th), his jumps being excellent (3rd in the running vertical and 8th in the standing) and a pretty reasonable agility test. His second place in the clean hands test would also be noted although I am not yet sure how that test translates to game situations.

People often mark guys like Rich down as having limited development left in them and I usually call bollox on that but this is one case where I worry it might be the case. Heppell has already worked exceptionally hard to improve the deficiencies in his game and the ones that remain (e.g. his decision making) might be so ingrained that they might not be capable of being corrected. I am sure I am going to be howled down by many for my review of him and I might well be entirely too harsh but I do think a lot of people are looking through rose coloured glasses at him atm.

Overall I see Heppell as a guy who has worked exceptionally hard on his game to get to this stage and yet there are still significant issues that I worry will not be correctable. His kicking is good but his decision making is average and accordingly I would not use a high pick on him.


Pick 17. North Melbourne

North have done a good job over the last couple of years making their picks count and there is no reason to think that won’t continue this year. They could go with a tall forward here if Lynch were available but more likely I think they will try and continue to add to their midfield brigade. They have added quite a lot of grunt to their side recently but could really use some flair hence I have them taking Andreoli here. I think he would do great on one wing and Wells on the other to bring pace and attacking ability to the team.

Warwick Andreoli
DOB 28/2/92 Ht 182 Ht 73

Andreoli looks like a stereotypical modern winger. He is smooth mover who covers the ground well and plays the game at pace. He has a nice kicking style on his left and will carry the ball, breaking the lines and hitting the forwards up. He has a name as an exceptionally quick player but watching him closely on a few occasions I am not sure how well that stacks up. He accelerates well and seems to do everything at pace but he rarely runs away from players and its not uncommon for him to be run down. He might well be one of those guys who has a reputation for being quick and when you see him play you agree but really isn’t. Whatever though he makes the best of what he has got and he plays the game quickly. Looking at his Combine results he put up a nice but not great time in the 20m and did poorly in the endurance events. It could well be that he does not have the endurance at the moment to make full use of his pace.

He plays predominantly outside and will look to receive on the outside of a pack at first instance. If he sees the ball coming his way though he will attack it and he wins more clearances than you would expect for a guy with a firmly outside reputation. When under pressure his hands are not particularly quick and his kicking does drop off. In tight he also does not have the cleanest hands but he is very good at keeping the ball in front of himself and working it forward until he has the chance to pick it up. He maintains good balance over the ball in the contest for such a light guy. His balance overall is a feature of his play particularly when he is on the move or kicking in space. His agility is very good and he has a lithe body which enables him to make tacklers miss or make only an easily broken grasping grab. He moves between tacklers very well and frees his arms pretty well in tackles. He is not much of a defensive presence and its rare to see him making a tackle.

As an outside player you would also like to see him winning more than the 15 possessions a game he got at the Champs. As mentioned above his endurance base at the moment is poor and he needs to build his engine and free himself up more. Mostly at the moment he tends to follow play and receive in fairly congested situations. He needs the running ability to allow him to get to dangerous spots more often. He is a country boy who has developed well in the time since joining South Fremantle but there is still a way to go but the development curve for him is good and he has shown a willingness to work on his game.

Another weakness in his game is the fact that he is not a goal scoring threat. Again he rarely runs to present himself as an option inside 50 (although I did note one time at the Champs when he was 20m in the clear inside 50 and was ignored) and is not a goal scoring threat. With his pace and skill set he should be looking to sneak forward at every opportunity. He combined very nicely with Bennell on occasions at the Champs and they complemented each other very nicely. He looks to me like the kind of player and personality who could be an underrated key in developing an elite midfield group because he can complement and enhance other players through his personality and through his ability to know what his teammates are going to do before they do. He will know where they like to go and pass to and where they like to receive the ball.

Overall Andreoli may not ever be a star but I think he could be a very nice outside in player who helps to bring the best out of the midfield group he is a part of.


18. Carlton

Okay Carlton fans don’t get your hopes up as everyone has Lynch moving up on their draft boards and he is very unlikely to be here in the real thing and even if he fell a bit I think Port or North may well snap him up. With that said he would ideally suit Carlton’s needs and Carlton would waste no time in taking him as the big forward they desperately need. Expect Carlton to take at least one KPF prospect this year but they have plenty of holes to fill and they shouldn’t reach here if there is not a prospect they rate.

Tom Lynch
DOB 31/10/92 Ht 199 Wt 86

There is a lot of talk of Lynch going high in the draft perhaps as high as Richmond at 6. He is a nice prospect but personally I think that is a bit high. With that said I probably have him too low here and I am already thinking that I am wrong but I can’t be bothered rearranging my top 20. There are not a lot of KPF targets who I rate and Lynch was probably the third best, draft eligible prospect that I saw this year. Most would concede Day as the clear cut best prospect available this year and I was massively keen on Bruce before he was claimed by GWS. Lynch reminds me a lot of Mitch Clark and the new interchange rules could be a massive boon for Lynch. His growth spurt puts him firmly in consideration for a team in need of a guy who can double as a second ruck. Lynch is first and foremost a KPF but being able to give some time in the ruck suddenly makes him much more valuable.

As a forward he main weapon are his workrate and his marking. He has very nice hands and judges the ball in the air better than most other players. He is not sucked into a contest and backs his own judgement usually to good effect. He takes the ball in flight in a spot that is to his advantage and varies it well depending on the situation e.g. he will take it at its highest point with players all around and out in front more when he has an opponent on his back. Like Clark he is not particularly slippery off the mark but when he finally works up to top speed his top gear is pretty good and he can hold that speed for an extended period which tends to burn off other players his size. He tested woefully in the 20m (a Temel type time) but surprisingly good in the 30m repeat sprints with his 20-30m splits being very impressive apparently. So in the AFL I can see there being plenty of head shaking as this guy who looks so slow when he takes off is suddenly running away from defenders.

He plays often as a wide ranging CHF getting up onto the wing as a marking target for his mids to outlet to. His agility is pretty good for such a tall man and he is very tenacious and continues to pursue the ball. He last couple of games at the Champs were red hot but some of his earlier work was not to the same standard. He needs to work on his consistency not just between games but within games as well and concentrate on putting in a four quarter performance. With his style of play I would have expected a bigger return than the 13 possessions and 4 marks per game he returned at the Champs.

Another similarity to Clark is the disparity between his around the ground kicking and his kicking for goal. Around the ground Lynch seems well balanced and punches his short to intermediate length kicks very nicely and will usually find his man well. He is certainly a tall that his teammates should not have any hesitation playing through. His longer kicking and kicking for goal though are a different story and could be described as unreliable. With his set shot he has a last minute hitch in his run up which tends to throw off his balance and disrupts his ball drop. As a consequence his kicking for goal is erratic and certainly poorer than you would expect from a guy you might be looking to invest a top 10 pick in. Lynch is a little awkward on his left but by the same token is not afraid to use it and credit too him it usually manages to find the target.

I like the competitiveness he demonstrates on the field and the body language he exhibits inspires confidence. He had a nice finish to the year in the TAC which only helps his cause but I am a little reluctant to mark this kind of form up too much for KPFs as they are too often matched up on guys with greatly inferior height and skill. Still I believe he is a good prospect and one who should have found a new home by half way through the first round on draft day.

Overall he could be a Mitch Clark clone as a wide ranging KPF prospect with the height to play as a ruck but also with significant goal kicking issues in need of addressing.


Pick 19. Hawthorn

I think its all but certain the Hawks will look to go KPD here. Tape is the obvious choice but his lack of height worries me and so I have gone with a conversion project who could become the kind of mobile KPD who would fit in well with their current structure. Litherland is the other one who might get a look in here although I am not sure he will end up being a key position defender.

Lucas Cook
DOB 3/3/92 Ht 196 Wt 81

Cook has played predominantly as a KPF to date in his career and this is where he played for Vic Country. Up forward he is a reasonable prospect being a nice mover who creates space and can take a reasonable mark. Overall though I am not so sure his future lies up forward. If I was drafting him it would be as a backman. I think his ability to read the ball in the air is much better than his marking ability. His marking is solid and he does snaffle some nice marks but he does miss his fair share as well and his hands are probably not as good as I would want up forward. His goal kicking can also be a little erratic with him having an odd drop on occasions and a stuttering run up. If he is to remain as a forward a fair bit of time will be put into sorting this out.

Down back I think he could use his ability to read the play to good effect and could pick his moments when to mark and when to punch. He is a fluid mover and I believe he could use this to better effect in rebounding the ball from defence. He has a pretty slight build still and is probably unlikely to ever be a huge man although he should be plenty big enough to compete. He has pretty good strength at the moment despite his thin build and that will only improve once he gets into an AFL environment. With the ball in his hands he takes good options and executes well. He is a good field kick for a big man although he does not have huge penetration. He does have a nice feel on his kicking and coming out of a contest he regains his balance quickly and his kicking looks good because of it. He finished in the top 10 in the Buckley kicking test at the combine which I am sure was noted by more than a few coaches and recruiters.

When the ball hits the ground he exhibits clean hands and if he can’t collect it he is disciplined in moving the ball for the advantage of his team or laying a tackle if it goes to the other team. He is not afraid to throw his body around spoiling and such things which coaches love from their KPs. He is not a big defensive presence up forward at the moment and he will need to work on this if he going to be forward at AFL level. He likes to get back onto the wing and looks pretty accomplished doing it and he has the engine to play up the ground and chase the wide ranging forwards around in the back half (he tested very well in the Beep Test at Combine not being all that far outside the top 10 times). He was the first key position home in the 3km at the Combine and was in the top 10 overall. He is not hugely quick but okay and it looks like he has enough speed to compete at AFL level and really nice agility which will trouble defenders when he plays up forward and allow him to recover quickly against tricky forwards when he is playing down back.

Overall I think he is a pretty solid prospect but probably not one who is likely to ever be a dominant forward at the next level. It could well be a different story as a backman which is where I like him.


Pick 20. Fremantle

Always hard to know which way Freo will go and this year is no exception. Personally I think they need a bit more grunt in and under and the likes of Hallahan, Parker, Green or even Butcher might be a chance here.

Mitchell Hallahan
DOB 23/8/92 Ht 184 Wt 81

Its always hard to judge exactly where the likes of Hallahan will go. He is a footballer without stand out skill or athleticism and is easy to overlook by those kind of players when looking for flash and X factor. Personally I think footballers are starting to come back into fashion and guys like Hallahan will start to work their way back up draft boards again.

Hallahan was named as Vic Country’s most valuable player at the Champs and captained the team to their win in the Champs this year and is a lead from the front kind of guy. He is a bit of a hot head though and if there is a fracas you can expect him to have either started it or quickly join in. If you spot some push and shove anywhere in the midfield area expect Hallahan to be involved. This is not necessarily a bad thing but must be kept under control.

He is predominantly an in and under player who can go forward reasonably well at junior level but is never likely to be a factor up forward in the AFL. He does not have the pace, marking ability or cleverness around goal to be a consistent goal threat. He does play some HBF and back pocket and could play some time there at the next level. So what do we have – well he is a tenacious inside player with reasonably clean hands, who reads the ball off hands pretty well, who uses the ball better than most and is a pretty good decision maker. He has slightly above average penetration and has pretty quick hands in tight. He has a good build for an inside player and will be a very powerful player after being in an AFL system for a couple of years. He uses his lower centre of gravity well in the clearance and maintains nice balance over the ball. He is slightly round shouldered but plays to his height.

His pace and endurance are solid but not in the top tier. He did not test at Combine I assume because of the ankle injury which plagued him at the end of the season. The ankle problems saw a drop off in his form for which some may have marked him down a bit. Still it did demonstrate his toughness and willingness to play with pain. He does have nice agility and works well in the phone box being quite evasive and possessed of a nice shimmy. Overhead his hands are pretty good but he is a poor judge of the ball in the air in my opinion and too often mistimes his jumps. He is an excellent tackler and it looks like something he prides himself on. He managed an excellent 5 tackles a game at the Champs which must have been close to the most of anyone. He does have one of best lines on the AFL website under what do you need to improve – “My speed, endurance, kicking and ability”. Hmmm not a lot to recommend you then

Overall Hallahan is not a sexy pick but like Bastinac last year he is one who could really pay off.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 21 Sydney

Sydney really need to start planning for the future in their KPD stocks and Tape I think is a big chance here and perhaps Litherland or Cook as well. I also think they need some restocking in the midfield with Kirk having retired and Jude Bolton and Goodes not having many seasons left. There are a few options out there but I think Prestia would suit them down to the ground and his game would suit Sydney’s style and the SCG. I really do think Prestia is a big chance here.

Dion Prestia
DOB 12/10/92 Ht 174 Wt 82

Have the club recruiters finally got over their allergy to taking any midfielder under 180cm? Emma Quayle seems to think so and she is very high on Prestia and in deference to her I am putting him a bit higher than I had intended. I am more than a little gun shy about rating short guys highly but to hell with it if they deserve it I suppose I should keep putting them up there. The short guys who have been given a shot lately (whether as a rookie or low down the draft) have kept stepping up and hopefully more will be given a chance because of it.

Prestia was unlucky at the Champs doing his hamstring in the second game and thus losing a big chance to show he could match it with the best. He picked up 26 possessions and a couple of goals in one and a bit games (and I note he used his “massive” height for a couple of hit outs as well). Coming back from the Champs though he turned it on and finished the TAC averaging 28 possessions a game. He ripped up the final series including the GF where he managed 36 possessions and 8 clearances in the biggest TAC game of the year. So take it as a given the kid knows how to find the ball. He has a name as an inside player but he also work hard on the outside and gets to excellent places to receive.

He also has made a name for himself with his big left foot and make no mistake it is a weapon. He does have excellent penetration although his accuracy needs to be brought in a bit. Personally I like his handball skills probably just as much if not more than his kicking skills. He might be close to the best handballer in the draft this year and he makes them count. He can rip out a big attacking handball that will hit the man and set him on his way. Being a good handball exponent is a very underrated skill and some of my most memorable plays of Voss are his handballs. He is not quite in that territory but he has that kind of potential with that skill.

In tight Prestia plays with excellent pace and when that is combined with elite agility (8.00 in the agility test at Combine for 2nd overall) and good core strength he is very difficult to tackle. He is very balanced over the ball and is difficult to move in the contest being able to retain his feet and move either left or right in a flash. He has quick and clean hands in tight and they are certainly good enough to play at the next level. He is proficient of his non-preferred left foot but he does lack the penetration he has on his right. He plays quite a bit up forward where the length of his kicking makes him dangerous. Unfortunately for him though he is currently a pretty ordinary kick for goal having kicked about twice as many behinds as goals in the TAC this year. He is not a marking threat and does not have very good hands overhead but going the other way he is not that easy to mark over either. He will provide a contest and he can provide a powerful body on body contest that makes the opposition’s job of marking the ball more difficult. He is regularly seen using his explosive pace to burst from the pack and he tested just outside the top 10 in the 20m at the Combine. He did best in the repeat sprint (5th overall) which is a testament to his ability to gut run at pace. His beep test result was good but not great and his endurance is something which he may need to work on a bit at the next level. He plays with a bit of a chip on his shoulder as the short guy but really he doesn’t play particularly short and if I was a recruiter it wouldn’t stop me picking him.

Overall the only real negative for Prestia seems to be his height and if a team can get past that there is a hell of a lot to like as an inside out midfielder. If he is given a chance (and I think he certainly will be at some stage) he could prove an inspired choice.


Pick 22 Western Bulldogs

They have committed to taking him as a father-son pick so there is no surprise in this one.

Mitchell Wallis
DOB 24/10/92 Ht 185 Wt 80

The kid is a ball magnet no two ways about it as 47 odd possessions in the TAC final is testament to. He can rack it up both inside and outside and that is really his main skill. He really needs to work a lot on his hurt factor as at the moment it is virtually non-existent. He lacks penetration in his kicking and when he does kick it is unadventurous and usually to a very safe option. He does not have confidence to try and pinpoint a pass and often requires the man to stop and prop to take the pass. He can also go through periods where he seems to lose all confidence in his kicking and get very handball happy ala Jobe Watson. At the next level where there is less time and space and the players shut down the little space there is very quickly he could have difficulty.

Similarly with his handball he concentrates on getting it there most often and does not use it in any way as an attacking weapon. In tight his hands are clean and he seems to have excellent awareness of where the players are around him. He can occasionally fire it to the wrong player making a lie to this but equally often he can flick a pass out to someone who you wonder how he knew he was there. Despite not being very damaging with his handballs in open play he can clear from the contest exceptionally well (note his equal 3rd place finish in the handball test at Combine) and his 83% efficiency rating at the Champs was exceptional for a guy who spends so much time in the contest. In the contest he reads the ball off hands very well and uses his excellent agility (7th overall at Combine) to navigate through traffic to find the ball or make the tackle.

In the open field he finds space as well as anyone in the draft and his gut running ability especially at the end of quarters is really outstanding considering the injury issues he has had over the year. He does not have the endurance base that some of the other prospects have. He is a very disciplined player who prides himself on playing within team structures. I suppose that is easy when you are greenlighted to chase the ball at every opportunity but he does do that very well and he is relentless.

Overall Wallis is a very reasonable all around midfield prospect who can find the ball with the best of them and he is certainly worthy of this pick. The biggest concern are his skills where there is a lot of room for improvement and coming from a football family you wonder whether they will ever be up to what you would like (see Watson and Cloke in this regard).


Pick 23 Geelong

I expect Geelong to take a tallish defender with either their first or second pick. With Drum not working out, Scarlett nearing the end, Harley already gone and Milburn running on fumes they need someone coming through. Tape or Litherland are the two who might be available here and I have gone with Litherland based on his athletic abilities and slight height advantage (based on Combine measures this was wrong). It is pretty much a 50/50 call for me between the two and it would not surprise me to see the Cats go either way.

Angus Litherland
DOB 12/10/92 Ht 190 86

At the moment he is probably a third tall defender and a guy who can go with both tall and medium defenders. The fact that he measured in a couple of centimetres shorter than advertised is certainly not going to help his case to be considered as a KPD prospect. What I really like about him is the fact that he has elite speed (2.88 in the 20m) and uses it exceptionally well to shut down his opponents. He very much has a defensive mindset and thrives on a one on one contest. With him measuring in short he has to be considered undersized for what you would like for a KPD but he has the discipline and game to play that role and could yet develop into a Leo Barry or Joel Patfull type of shortish KPD.

At the junior level I think he overplayed his defensive role and should have made himself more of an option going forward. When he gets the ball he plays pretty much exactly like a modern AFL backman in that he will wait and pick out a target rather than just pumping it forward. He uses little three quarter strength kicks very effectively and seems to take good options. He is very right footed and can get tucked up a bit if he cannot get onto his right. He does not carry it a huge amount but when he does he looks very good. He only really runs in space at the moment (i.e. he does not try to break the lines in traffic) and when this is the case he has the pace to run away from his opposition. I think he needs to work out that making his opposite number chase him is going to help him in the long run as that player is going to have to start worrying about him.

He only took 4 marks in 4 games at the Champs which indicates to me that he doesn’t trust himself to try and outmark his opposite number (he is a fair spoil of the ball) and that he does not work hard enough to present as an option going out of defence. The former is excusable in a defender the latter is not and must be improved especially when you consider that he is pretty good by foot and is dangerous with the ball in hand. He agility is a definite strength for him and he can change directions on a dime and his ability to handle the wet conditions and change directions against SA was very much worth noting. Another thing he does well is keep his feet and this is an often overlooked skill in a defender. Litherland rarely leaves his feet and recovers very quickly when he does.

Overall I can see Litherland starting his career as a third tall and a coach aiming to turn him into the Harry O’Brien type defender he aspires to be.


Pick 24 St Kilda

The Saints are in the window and have a very good overall team. Their biggest needs are probably key positions who are the least likely to contribute straight away. If they are planning for the future they will take a key position here but if they are concentrating on going after a premiership they will take a small / medium. Smedts with his pace would be a pretty good chance here but if I was them I would swing for the fences and take Harper. He has as high a ceiling as anyone in this draft but also carries close to the most risk. Still the Saints are in a position where they can take the risk without damaging the team and so they may as well give it a go.

Kieran Harper
DOB 5/6/92 Ht 187 Wt 80

Well if you were going to pick one game to stand up and show elite potential you would pick the last game of the Champs on national television. If Harper played like he did against WA every week he would be a top 5 maybe top 3 player. In that game he looked like a young Steve Johnson except with better pace and around the field kicking. He was putting spin moves on deep in the pocket and rolling them through from the boundary. He was snapping them through with the left. Pinpointing passes into the leading targets, bursting from packs and accelerating away and tackling everything in his area. He will hit a spillage at pace, pluck the ball from the ground not slowing and come out the other side, balance and slot it through. He seems to have time others don’t and an innate sense of where the goals are that only the truly exceptional forwards in the competition have. Overhead he is very strong with a big leap, good body control and strong hands. At Combine he finished first in the running vertical jump (88cms), was 5th in the standing vertical (65cms) and was 3rd in the repeat sprint (23.837). So in short if you were judging him by his WA game, the two minutes of highlights on the AFL website and his Combine results you would wonder how the hell he is not a top 10 pick. The short answer is that he really only got it together for one game this year. The rest of the time he has been disappointing to say the least given his talent.

He rarely demonstrated more than a couple of the above traits in any particular game. Significant slack might be given to him by teams because he had a much better season last year at TAC level and this season has had serious injury interruptions. He had surgery on both hips last offseason and also had an appendix operation during the year. This year he only played 8 games, kicked 6 goals and did not get a vote in any match.

Body wise he looks like he will develop into a fairly powerful player and he actually reminds me a bit of Joel Selwood as far as build goes. He has very nice feel on his field kicks and as mentioned above he is very clever on the run going for goal. His set shows though are a bit hit and miss. He has a variable run up occasionally putting a few stuttering steps that disrupts his balance. When he gets his run up sorted his set shot looks pretty good so with some work at the next level I don’t really have any concern in this regard. If his body is okay he should be able to work on building up his endurance base and if he can do that he should be able to have a more consistent influence on games. When he does participate in games he is invariably dangerous and he has that X factor that teams are looking for. What they might not be looking for is Harper’s admission that he struggles to play in a structured environment instead preferring to play at an instinctual level. Any team willing to take him will have to give this serious consideration when deciding how to use him.

Overall Harper has enormous potential to either become an elite mobile small forward or flame out and ball of inconsistency. Teams with a flexible coach able to give him the freedom to play his own game are the ones with the best chance of getting a pay off.


Pick 25 Brisbane

Just so no-one can accuse me of rigging my draft in favour of the Lions I have gone with two guys no-one else has anywhere near the picks I have taken them. I really do rate Eades very highly and I cannot for the life of me work out why no-one else does. The Lions really need to address the deficiency at small forward and Eades has as much potential as anyone in this draft short of perhaps Bennell in that role. From the media it appears the Lions have significant interest in Green and Prestia and both would be big chances here if available.

Jordan Eades
DOB 19 Ht 174 Wt 73
Okay call me stunned, I cannot understand how our WA bretheren have not been shouting about this kid (maybe they are hoping if they keep quiet he will sneak through to their pick). I absolutely love this kid and would have no trouble taking him in the first round if I needed a small forward and the Lions certainly do. Eades is another in the production line of atypical indigenous small forwards. He is very quick, agile, elusive and a very willing defensive forward who can do something special when he gets the ball.

I am loath to make the comparison but there is a lot of Cyril in this kid. He maybe doesn’t quite have Cyril’s vision or penetration on his kicks but pretty much everything else is there. Hell he is even built like Cyril would have been if he was actually fit when he was drafted. He is very dangerous around goal but is excellent up onto the wing and looks like he can go into the middle as he develops further. He is very slippery, can stop on a dime and accelerate again before the opposition can recover. He is a very balanced mover and shows a great ability to brush through arm tackles. He is a great exponent of the give and go and runs great lines both away and toward goals. He often waits to his opponent relaxes and then will explode toward goal or away from it.

He does not have fantastic penetration on his kicking but he has high hurt factor off either foot. Much like Sidebottom you would often have trouble working out which is his preferred side. His delivery into the forward line is on par with anyone in this draft I think. He leads the forwards exceptionally well and if they have separation he will hit them lace out on the chest. He is capable overhead but I would not say it is a strength of his. In fact he probably plays hunched a bit and looks shorter than he supposedly is. When the ball is on the ground though he will attack it with pace and has the clean hands to gather it cleanly, balance within a pace and then go off either foot to a player or for goal. In front of goal he is disciplined and will look for other players if he is not in a great position himself.

Another major strength of his and one which will endear him to every AFL coach is his forward pressure. He chases hard and uses his elite speed to pressure and tackle anyone in his area. He highly values his defensive game and it shows. Any defender in his area will be concerned about what is coming from behind him and will want to get rid of it quickly. He is a weapon like Cyril in this regard and one that is very in vogue in the AFL at the moment.

If I was a recruiter I would be salivating about getting this guy into a professional environment as with coaching, a bit of work and encouragement he could become anything. This was his first year with Perth and played in 9 WAFL games picking up a couple of bags of 4 to the recollection of his coach (I can’t be bothered at this stage looking it up). He can fade a little in and out of games but if he improved his endurance base this would overcome this and would allow him to make full use of his skills and great chase down ability. He has played some onball in the WAFL this year and looks good when he does so. As he builds his engine I would expect him to play more up the field to set up play coming into the forward line.

He does not look as light as he is but obviously needs to put on some muscle although personally I do not think that would prevent him from playing early if selected. Small forwards with pace get away with being a little light at the moment provided they have good tackling technique and Eades does. This kid seems completely under the radar in that he did not even get an invite to State Screening but if I was picking for a team I would be all over him particularly if my team was in desperate need of a small forward (eg Brisbane).

Overall he has the game to play as a modern AFL small forward from early and impact the game with his forward pressure from day one and down the track he could be anything if he is prepared to work. Am I going a little over the top? Probably but having from what little I have seen of him I have seen a whole lot of upside and not many problems.


Pick 26 West Coast

West Coast need some speed and flair in the midfield more than anything else. Given the dimensions of Subi anyone going to West Coast with hopes of playing through the midfield also needs to be a good runner. Gaff in the first round (who “should” be a certainty) will help a lot but if they could get someone with a decent kick that also would be a big advantage. Andreoli is a significant chance here I think and Cripps would be too but the one guy I like the most is Isaac Smith who is still a little rough but has X factor galore and should develop as the team develops.

Isaac Smith
DOB 22 Ht 187 Wt 75

This kid is one of the stories of the draft. As far as I can tell he was on exactly no-one’s radar at the beginning of the year being mature aged and playing country football for Redan. He performed well for them and ended up being selected for Victoria in the bush football champs and from there his rise has been meteoric. He starred for the victorious Victorians and was invited down to try out for North Ballarat. He played a few games in the reserves and with 3 games left in the regular season he got a game in the VFL. He finished the year very encouragingly and was selected in their team for their three finals where he flashed moments of brilliance and now he is up in lights and on everyone’s radar.

It’s very tempting to overrate him given his story and where he has come from but realistically he is still very raw with significant holes in his game. Certainly more than you would usually expect when drafting a 22 year old. Still he has shown massive improvement this year and there is no reason not to think there is huge scope for more improvement. He upped his fitness base at the beginning of the year and from that has allowed him to play the kind of game that has gotten him noticed. He tested at the Victorian State Screening and demonstrated elite athletic ability. His speed is very evident in his game and it was not a big surprise that he clocked 2.88 in the 20m but 14.6 in the beep was a little unexpected (both would have been top 10 at Combine) and 89cm in the running vertical was exceptional (88cm was the best at Combine). So needless to say he demonstrated that he has the athletic ability to bring his game to the AFL.

At AFL level he will be a wingman / HFF who can both kick goals and set them up. He is very good with the ball in hand and accordingly I would look to use him on the wing so that he can use his speed, long kick and line breaking ability more. I would still want him creeping into the forward line at every opportunity as he is certainly a goal kicker. He was the leading goal kicker for Redan this year when he was there. The comparison that is used a lot at the moment is to Stephen Hill but personally I think the better comparison would be too Tim Notting. His long stride is very Notting-esque as his long but too often errant kick. He has excellent penetration with his left foot but he will need some skill work when he gets into a professional environment to improve his radar and flatten the delivery out in short to intermediate distances.

He demonstrates good player awareness wherever he is on the field but under pressure he loses his composure a bit and can be a little turnover prone. At the moment you want him out in space with the ball in hand as with his pace and penetration he can go from the backline to the forward line in a flash. Not only does he time well speed wise he also plays quickly. I think he still needs to work on his gut running as he tends to fade in and out of games too much at the moment. His possession count is entirely too low for someone with his ability and needs to be improved. He needs to be taught where to run as at the moment he tends to not get as open as he should. Defensively he also needs some work and he wouldn’t cut it at AFL level yet. At 22 he only weighs 75kgs and wherever he goes next year he is going to be hitting the high protein diet and body building shakes very hard.

Overall Smith is a diamond in the rough with the potential to become a very good winger with X factor but he is really in need of a very good development program. Collingwood or Fremantle would be ideal for him in this regard.


Pick 27 North Melbourne
North have announced that they are using their compensation pick this year and it seems like they will be the only team to do so. I think North will definitely go with a tall forward prospect with one of their picks and so I have slotted them in for the next KPF on my list. I would probably have Mitchell in the 30s if I was ignoring need but I think he is likely to go around here on draft day.

Luke Mitchell
DOB 28/2/92 Ht 198 Wt 94

Mitchell is a big lump of a kid who is probably not going to have to bulk up all that much to play AFL football. A lot of guys on their AFL profile put some head scratchers in the AFL player they compare themselves to (I still shake my head at Cornelius saying he played like O’Keefe) but Mitchell comparing himself to Jonathan Brown is very appropriate. He is a big guy like Brown, plays a very similar role, moves like him and even has some of the same mannerisms. The way he marks on the high lead with the easy soft hands and then throwing the head forward a bit is eerily similar. What is also similar is his lack of pace and at the moment he doesn’t have Brown’s engine which allows him to keep working and presenting and burn defenders off.

My biggest concern with Mitchell is whether he is going to be able to get separation at AFL level. He relies a lot at the moment on being much bigger and stronger than his defender. At AFL level the defenders are still going to be smaller than he is but they will be close to as strong as he is and will be quicker and more athletic. He marks well and has good hands but there aren’t many forwards in the AFL who can rely on getting enough marks with a defender going with you every step. The fact that he has grown 4cm this year and put on nearly 10kgs is going to help him. He is now almost at ruck height and this both makes him harder to defend and also puts him into a category of players who could be looked at as a forward who could relieve in the ruck under the new interchange rules. What he needs to do most is to improve his endurance base (having a quick look I think he had the worst beep test of anyone at Combine). This will allow him to put in the repeat leads that will give him a chance to pop free and also allow him to get up the ground where the defender is less likely to be as effective. He needs to go and have a look at the role Brown had in the Lions premiership teams and model his game on that. More endurance would also allow him to ruck more effectively. His pace is solid but nothing more than that.

He has a pretty classical kick for goal with a high leg follow through. He has range out to 50 and is one of the most accurate shots in this year’s draft. Around the ground he is a nice kick of the ball and like Brown he is a very good deliverer of the ball into the 50. He knows where the forwards want the ball and puts it there for them with good weight. He has an easy style but does not laser it in there. He missed the Champs this year and a large proportion of the season after having shoulder surgery. He returned with good form in the TAC but shoulders are very difficult to get right and could easily become chronic if it is not carefully managed (take it from someone who knows). The comparison to Ben Griffiths is well worth considering in this regard. He was a very well regarded prospect coming into this year and despite the injury issues is one that I am a sure a lot of teams have their eyes on. I think someone in need of a forward will jump before here but I am not sure I would be taking the risk unless my need for a forward was pretty great.

Overall Mitchell is a big strong prospect who has a lot of potential as a KPF but brings with him very large risks from a athletic and injury perspective.


Pick 28 Brisbane

The Lions still have a pretty good top 18 but with the length of their injury list last year they were really found out. They are capable of competing with most teams and getting a player at this stage who can step in and play without a lot of development time would be a big advantage. Curnow the athlete would also be very handy. Curnow is very difficult to place and could go in the top 20 or well down the list (if GC don’t take him).

Ed Curnow
DOB 20 Ht 182 Wt 83

Curnow seems to have been discounted by most as a prospect in this year’s draft and I really don’t understand why. Sure he has a broken leg that might keep him out for a fair bit of next year but the kid is only 20 still and if teams rule him out because of a few games early next year they could be missing out on a Michael Barlow standard player who could excel for the team that takes him for the next 10 years. Curnow has shown enormous development this year and there is no reason to think that he would not continue to develop once he gets back on the park.

He has a fantastic attitude and the coaches at Box Hill cannot speak highly enough of him. He was delisted by Adelaide after 1 year on the rookie list in 2008 with concerns centering mainly on his disposal skills. Rendell at the time suggested that the decision could come back to bite them on the bum and that may well end up being the case. He has worked hard improving his skills and this year showed his skills are certainly up to AFL standard. The other thing which he had to improve was his strength in the contest. He bulked up a lot over the preseason and put a lot of work in the gym and he looked like a different player out there this year. Suddenly he was strong enough to mix it in the clinches and he was able to dominate around the stoppages.

There was never any doubt of his athletic ability, indeed he set the 3km record whilst he was a rookie with the Crows. He has elite level endurance and good speed. Now much like Barlow he is a well rounded midfielder who runs all day and can get in at the clearances and win his own ball. He has quick, clean hands and makes good use of the balls he wins in tight. Confidence was also a big aspect of the leap that Curnow made this year. This year he finally worked out that he could dominate at VFL level and he went out and did it. I think the mental side is something any club taking him must remember. He is one guy who initially might require a bit more positive reinforcement than many especially whilst recovering from his injury.

I note that the Box Hill B&F he had his arm in a sling. I assume he has taken the opportunity to clean up a problem there whilst he is recuperating from his leg injury. Curnow was injured in week 13 missing the final 8 games of the VFL season. Despite this he won the Box Hill B&F and finished 3rd in the JJ Liston Trophy. He had 5 BOG in the 12 completed games he played. In the State game with WA he was very unlucky not to win the BOG given he accumulated 38 possessions in another dominant display. Quite simply he was the stand out player in the VFL this year and perhaps only Krak would stand between him and the mantle of best player not playing AFL football. In my opinion he is too good not to be picked up by some team this year despite his injury.

Overall Curnow has taken a massive step forward this year and apart from his injury he would certainly be getting massive attention. He looked every bit as good as Barlow did the year before and any team in the league would love to have another Barlow type in their midfield.


Pick 29 West Coast

HBF is probably not a big need for the West Coast after taking Shepherd last year and with Gaff likely playing as a link man behind centre as well. With that said Cripps has played all over the ground and he can be thrown into different areas including up forward or in the middle. I am sure he has been on the West Coast were monitoring his end of season form in the WAFL.

Jamie Cripps
DOB 23/4/92 Ht 183 Wt 75

Quite a lot was expected of Cripps in the Champs but he didn’t really deliver. He was solid at 14 possessions a game but more was expected by our WA bretheren who had been following him. What he did do which hasn’t received much publicity is finished the year off very strongly in the WAFL including in the finals. In his 6 games in the WAFL he averaged 21 possessions per games playing at both ends and some in the middle. He played mostly in the back half at the Champs and that is where I am seeing him playing in the AFL. He is composed down back and is the kind of attacking half back that is very common in the AFL at the moment.

He took the kick ins for WA and is a good if not elite kick of the ball with fair to reasonably good penetration. His accuracy is similarly fair to reasonably good. He likes to get the ball in hand and attack with run out of defence. He has good pace but his tendency to hold the ball in both hands when attacking does tend to reduce his pace a bit. That style though does cause opponents to hesitate though as it allows him to run, kick or handball from that position and so they are unsure what he is going to do. He is not particularly elusive in the open field and is a little prone to being tackled when overestimating his ability to beat a player. Under pressure generally though he shows good composure and does not panic. In contests he is quick hands for a backman but is probably a bit below the top midfield options. I note however that he finished equal 8th in the handball test at Combine perhaps indicating that he has good potential in this regard.

He is pretty smart defensively getting to good spots and being able to use his body well in contested situations. He reads the ball well in the air and commits to the contest but does not have great hands. At the Combine he showed good endurance (coming in 4th in the 3km and also putting in a nice beep test) but over the course of the game he does tend to slow and building his endurance base will be a significant focus in his first AFL offseason. His pace results at the Combine were also very good although just below elite level and his agility was just outside the top 10. Overall he is a very fine all around athlete that should be able to hold his own at AFL level. His gut running is probably one thing which needs to be improved.

Overall he is a nice attacking half back option that will have quite a few fans in AFL circles given the way he finished the year in the WAFL seniors.


Pick 30 Richmond

Richmond have a few young ruck prospects in their side but none have really stepped up and shown any consistent form. Therefore it would not surprise me if another young prospect was added this year and Phillips is the clear cut third best prospect this year. Richmond really need a ruck that can give their young mid brigade first crack at the ball and Phillips has the potential to be an excellent ruck technician.

Andrew Phillips
DOB 3/7/91 Ht 201 Wt 91

Phillips performance at the Champs might be one of the most overlooked of any player. Personally I thought he stamped himself as a potential ruck of real class. The quality of his tap work was superb and only Lycett could be considered close to him in this regard. If a team is looking for a player who can put the ball down the throat of your mids then you have to consider him especially when he is likely to be available a full round at least after Gorringe and Lycett have been taken off the board. He was really the only ruckman that gave Gorringe and Lycett a run for their money when they played. Phillips competed well against the two headed SA ruck combination and despite being double teamed I thought he came at least even. He did wear down a bit in that game but his potential was clear I thought against two rucks considered to have elite potential.

He is very clever with his taps, gets good height, controls his body, knows where his mids are and executes his taps very very well. After the tap he recovers quickly and competes well for the ball and is a solid tackler. In the open field he is a pretty smooth mover although when changing direction he looks a little gangly yet seems to change direction well. He has good hands over his head and specialises in sliding in from the side of a contest to snaffle the mark. If you don’t lay a body on him this is very difficult to stop as he judges the ball well in flight and times his jump to take the ball where only other rucks could reach. His around the ground kicking style is relaxed and he has plenty of confidence in his ability to hit targets. He has good feel on his kicks and does not try kick beyond his range. He does not get forward as much as he should and when he does have a set shot his style does not fill me with a lot of confidence. He has a short, disjointed, high stepping approach which does nothing to improve penetration or accuracy.

He says he models his game on Paddy Ryder but personally I do not think he is that similar. He is a better tap ruck and does not have the agility of the shorter Ryder (I may be a bit harsh here looking at his agility results which were good for a ruck). He is very deceptive pace wise. Looking at his 20m results is enlightening. His first 5m is glacial but from 5-20m he times quicker than many guys who went under 3secs. So once he gets up to speed Phillips is quick and is going to run away from a lot of opposition players. Phillips is a mature aged prospect but due to his geographic location he has been restricted his ability to participate in Tasmania’s elite program and hence he is still more than a little raw but he has a lot of potential once he gets into an AFL environment. Phillips is a smart guy and by all reports a good guy as well.

Overall I think Phillips is comfortably the third best ruck prospect available this year and if you are looking for a lead ruck in this draft this is a guy you should be looking at. He is an excellent technician who needs to up his endurance and around the ground work but there is a lot of potential there.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 31 Essendon

Parker would be an excellent get for Essendon here and would further add to the ability to win the ball. His football IQ and ability to go forward and kick goals would also be very handy in the Essendon midfield. Parker is a footballer and Essendon need a few more of those.

Luke Parker
DOB 25/10/92 Ht 183 Wt 81

If a team is looking to add grunt to their team then Parker will be one that they will be looking at in the 20-35 range. Parker does not have any exceptional characteristics except maybe his marking but he is a player who has a smart football brain and does most things well. He is predominantly an inside mid who can go forward and likes to present as a marking target up forward. He will fly for everything up forward and create a contest and crash the packs. I would like to see him wait down a little more and use his inside mid abilities to crumb a few. Still he is very capable of taking a contested mark and his pack crashing abilities did create more than a few goals at the Champs – one in particular was him flying and the 199cm Lynch waiting down to pick up the crumbing goal. He reads the ball very well in the air and judges his jump to best effect. In the air his hands are well above average and his highlight reel looks particularly good in this respect. Bear in mind though that despite the highlights he spills his share as well and averaged less than 3 marks per game at the Champs. He needs to get into the open more and present as an unmarked target.

At the moment most of his marks are contested and his outside game needs to improve. He needs to be taught to spots to run to to receive. He works hard in his repeat efforts and I don’t think he idles at a particularly high rate. He has a reputation for having good endurance but I think this is something which needs to improve if he is going to get the best out of himself (he didn’t test at the Combine). He needs to cover more ground and present himself as an easy option. He has a powerful build which will only improve once he matures and is put on an AFL strength program. He has good strength over the ball and excellent strength in the air. He is a kid who is hard to move when they are in the air if you know what I mean. On the ground he has good balance and brushes arm tackles well. He is not hugely elusive but is not the worst in this regard either and is not easy to tackle.

He is a reasonable but not exceptional kick of the ball and his penetration is nothing to write home about (but neither is it bad just middle of the pack). When he has time he looks very nice style wise and he chips and picks out men well. His handballs can be a bit hit and miss and I think this is something that needs to be worked on. He shows excellent awareness in the contest of where everyone is but sometimes his execution of the simple will let him down. There are occasions though when he slips a handball out to someone he has no right to be aware is even there. He has no problem getting right into the thick of things in the contest and put himself at the bottom of packs. He has good ball winning skills in those types of situations.

Overall he is a good inside mid who can do a job up forward but he is also a prospect who might not have the ceiling of some of the other prospects but does not have the risk either. He will play and do so well.


Pick 32 Brisbane

The Lions will take a key position at some stage in this draft and with the delisting of McCulloch and McCauley it would be handy if that key position was also capable of doing some ruck work. The guy who looks like he could fill those needs best is Ben Brown. The Lions will have to wait for him with his injury but they have shown they are not afraid to take injured guys. The Lions also heavily recruit from Tasmania and I think the Lions would very much have their eyes on Brown.

Ben Brown
DOB 20/11/92 Ht 198 Wt 87

Brown has disappeared off most amateur’s radar screens but I am betting most of the professionals are still all over him. He did his knee badly during the Champs and had a full reconstruction that will put him out for a full year. Consider though how many teams would draft a 198cm KPF / ruck and expect them to play in their first year? Virtually none is the answer to that question. The first year for the big talls is all about getting their body ready to compete at the next level and learning the nuances of the game at the highest level. Brown will be doing that and now is the perfect time for him to work on putting on weight and building core strength particularly in his upper body. He has a thin build but not overly so being similar in many respects to Gorringe who is a similar size. I am sure teams will be all over the his medical reports but provided the prognosis is good and he is working hard at his recovery I think quite a few teams will be interested in him. Athletically before the knee operation Brown was pretty good with a nice leap and enough speed to create separation and hopefully this is not affected by the injury.

There is a lot to like with Brown. I have seen Snoop compare him to Kurt Tippett and that is a pretty good comparison and the sort of level I could see him playing at in the AFL. Both come from a basketball background and both did not focus primarily on their AFL until the year before the draft. Both have excellent hands both above and below the knees for big men and a good awareness in traffic of where everyone is. For a big man Brown is exceptionally good in traffic and has pretty quick hands. He has a lot of X factor about him for such a big guy and consider this quote from the Tasmanian coach - "He does some freakish things. He looks gangly but he's got the cleanest hands below his knees for a big bloke that I've ever seen."

Under the new rules teams will see him as a part time ruckman but his main role will be up forward where he will be very dangerous and make a name for himself. He is a good shot for goal and converts his shots well. I haven’t seen much at all of him but his kicking for goals a lot better than Tippett’s and that should encourage teams. He reads the play coming up the field well and times his leads to good spots very well. He is a big guy already and at U18 level he used his body very smartly to give himself opportunities. He did a bit of rucking for Tasmania and did pretty well against the Div 2 rucks but the 5 goals he scored against Qld put his name into the minds of many recruiters if he wasn’t there before. He was already on the radar of many after excelling as an overage player in the U16 champs in 09 and this performance reinforced his potential. In a year where the key position and ruck stocks are not particularly strong I would be happy to wait a little extra time and secure a guy with as much potential as anyone. Brown attended State Screening

Overall I see Brown as guy with a lot of potential who could really pay off for a team willing to take a risk on his knee. As a KPF/Ruck he could be a valuable player under the new interchange rules.


Pick 33 Melbourne

Melbourne would waste no time taking Smedts if he was here I think. Smedts I think would be able to come in and play a defensive role and further free up Grimes and Morton to play their natural attacking games. He is reasonable himself going forward but he is not in the same class as the other two. He might be better defensively though and could become a shut down small/medium defender that would be handy in the Demons young group.

Billie Smedts
DOB 8/6/92 Ht 187 Wt 77

Smedts is becoming a popular highish selection by many but personally I do not rate him as highly as most. The problem for me is that he is a true utility without great height and without a real weapon. People point to Moore last year about where he might go but I rated Moore’s disposal quite a bit higher than Smedts and the fact that Moore has struggled might hurt Smedts’ prospects.

I think Smedts is probably best considered as a small defender. Down back he shows good defensive instincts and is effective in one on one situations. He plays tall and is very composed when he gets the ball at the back. He will assess the situation quickly and he reads the ball well coming and the options that he has going the other way. He has an unusual release of the ball when he kicks. It’s almost a two handed release although I think it might just be that he flicks his right arm out fairly violently when he guides the ball down. Whatever the issue though generally he is a reasonable kick and weights his medium distance kicks very well. He evaluates situations very quickly and takes good options. He does not have a lot of penetration on his kicks and usually tends to work well within his range picking out his targets although he can scrub kicks every now and then. I am a little sceptical of the Buckley’s kicking test at Combine but it is worth noting that Smedts finished 7th overall.

Unlike Moore last year I don’t really see playing as a midfielder. In clearances situations his hands tend to desert him a little and he is prone to turning it over or panicking a little when he receives it. Up forward he is pretty effective but not a big goal scorer which sort of defeats the purpose. One of the things you really notice when you see him play is his agility and that serves him well down back where he has the speed to go with virtually anyone (2.91 for 9th overall) and the agility to recover quickly when matched up on tricky small forwards. He was 1st overall in the agility test at Combine (7.90 is an excellent time and up there all time) and uses his agility not only in defence but also going forward where he is evasive and very difficult to tackle. At the Champs he didn’t get nearly enough ball (11 disposals per game) and in the modern game he needs to do better than this. He has a nice offensive game but he does not present himself enough going out of defense. Most of his possessions will come opponents rather than connecting up with his own teammates.

Overall I see him as a good prospect as a defensive stopper who can do okay with it going the other way but doesn’t work hard enough at the moment going the other way. He should do well in that role but usually you do not expend a high selection on guys like that.


Pick 34 Carlton

I expect Carlton will want to come out of this draft with a KPF prospect or two and some grunt in the midfield. Given I have them getting the forward in the first round I am going with grunt at this pick and Fasolo would give them that. He can slot in and be a very good complementary midfielder to the likes of Gibbs and Murphy going forward and be very capable of winning the hard ball and free those guys up. Being able to go forward and kick goals is also handy.

Alex Fasolo
DOB 8/6/92 Ht 180 Wt 80

There are a quite a lot of similar prospects in the 20-40 mark and any of them could be taken over any other. It just depends on who the particular recruiter likes the most. Me I happen to like Fasolo quite a lot. He doesn’t have a lot of X factor but to me he just looks like a footballer. He has a quick football brain and plays the game to win. He reminds me a lot of Bastinac and like him I think the team that picks him in this range is going to get a bargain. He played as an inside out midfielder at the Champs and looked very good doing that and then he returned to East Freo and played up forward in the WAFL and picked up some nice bags of goals including a bag of 6 playing as a half forward. Despite his success as a forward in the WAFL I am not sure he has the physical tools to be a consistent threat at AFL level. He is only average across the board athletically and tested that way at Combine. He didn’t test badly but there was nothing there that was in the top 25% (he may have been close in the jumps I haven’t done the maths on that one).

I can however see him as an midfielder who can sneak forward or rest up forward and be effective with the new interchange rules. He is very good in traffic and reads the ball well off the rucks hands. He moves nicely through traffic and finds his way to the ball better than all but a couple in this draft. In tight his hands are reasonable but not super quick. Similarly he is usually pretty clean and will often come up with a flashy clean collect from the ground or on the bounce but it is also not uncommon for him to fumble a little going for the ball. When he does though he does a good job of keeping the ball in front of himself and he recovers well. When he gets his hands on the ball he is one of the better handballers in this draft particularly in the contest. He picks his times very well to shovel out the quick handball or to give himself a little time and deliver to the receiver. He finished equal 8th at the Combine in the Handball Test with 26/30.

When he goes to kick he shows good decision making skills and takes good options. He has below average penetration but his ability to get the kick to the right player gives him hurt factor. He leads his forwards well with his kicks into 50 and puts it where his forward can get it and the defender can’t. He is also one of the few players this year who can rip out a laser pass and drill it into the forward line. One aspect of his game which will fit well into the AFL game is the speed at which he plays when he gets the ball. He makes excellent choices about when to go back and take the kick and when to play on quickly and move the ball. He assesses the situation quickly and acts decisively. The other thing which I like and is a reason why I put him ahead of quite a few similar players is the way he works for his teammates. He will block and shepherd to free up his man and he will actually bust his butt to do so. A lot of players go through the motion of being seen to shepherd but Fasolo actually knows the value of it to winning teams and works just as hard to do that as to receive the ball himself. Defensively he also works hard and does a good job. He is a good tackler and finishes them.

Overall I like Fasolo a lot and see him as a footballer which would improve whichever team takes him. He maybe a bit plain vanilla but he does most things at a high level and does the little things that help teams win.


Pick 35 Port Adelaide

Tape I think would be too good to pass up here. He is a local boy and Port could use a player like Tape helping to set them up from the back. Port have broken down pretty consistently getting from the back into the midfield and Tape could help them in this regard whilst also being a very capable defender.

Seb Tape
DOB 6/8/92 Ht 191 81

If Tape was 195cm tall he would be close to a top 10 pick. Unfortunately he is a little on the short side for his natural KPD role and as a consequence he falls down to the late first early second round as a consequence. He is most likely to play as a third tall in defence in the AFL and third talls are worth quite a bit less than KPDs. Apart from his height though (listed at 189 on the AFL website but he measured better than that lucky for him) there is a lot to like about Tape. He is a very disciplined defender who reads the play very well and makes good decisions about whether to mark or spoil. He has a good leap (9th at Combine at 63cm in the standing vertical) and plays with closing speed (9th in the repeat sprint with 24.420) and makes good choices about when to leave his man and when to stick close. It’s interesting to note his 20m time was very ordinary and his split times indicated that his first 5m was very slow but his top gear is good. People coaching against him will note this and will try and get him to stop and try and create separation from a standing start.

He didn’t take many marks in the Champs but he followed up his very nice Champs form with a good form in the SANFL reserves and then a late seniors debut and in senior company he tended to take more marks. Despite being slightly height challenged he played tall in his SANFL game against AFL players. He has the ability to play on talls and mediums and has shown good agility in sticking with both types. He shows good balance in the contest and uses his body effectively to protect the drop zone although he is not really a toe to toe sort of defensive player. He is more the kind to sag a little and back his ability to read the play and his pace to compensate when needed. Below the knees his hands are very clean for a key position / third tall.

Going the other way he is very effective with a good kick and picks his targets and executes well. He does not have the penetration of someone like Watson (who does really) but he can cover 50m with his kicks although he mostly tries to pick targets rather than pumping it long. He likes to get out and run when he has an opportunity and he often handballs and follows up to receive. His handball technique will need some work when he reaches the AFL. He picks good times and targets to use a handball but he loops it up too much, does not have good penetration and often leaves the recipient a little flat footed. Still I think its nothing a bit of solid work in a professional environment won’t sort out. He is very balanced in his run although over distance his technique tends to get a little ragged I think. He sees himself as a Sam Gilbert type defender and he could turn out a better defensive version of Gilbert although he will have to up his work rate going forward and present as a running option more often. He doesn’t get as much ball as he should currently. This is probably a function of his endurance base which is lower than teams would like. His beep test and 3km results were poor and he will be doing a lot of running to improve this with whichever team takes him. His character is rated very highly within his club.

Overall I think he could be an excellent defensive player in the AFL but whether he can be key position is at best fairly uncertain. He provides nice run off and has the potential to establish himself in a Harry O’Brien or Sam Gilbert type role.


Pick 36 Port Adelaide

I was going to go with a small forward but with the addition of Phillips I think they will go with another mid and one with some grunt would help. Butcher gives them this together with some excellent athletic abilities and good kicking potential. He has some good leadership skills which will also be handy down the track.

Kieran Butcher DOB 2/3/92 Ht 180 Wt 78

It’s a little hard for me to get a bead on where Butcher is likely to go given he very much has a reputation as a plain vanilla kind of player. Personally I don’t agree with that. This is an inside out mid with elite pace (he would have been 6th at the Combine with his State screening time) and an ability to laser passes into the forward 50. There are very few this year who can deliver their passes as hard and flat as he can. He caught my attention in the NSW game with a couple of lovely passes that he drilled onto the chest of his forwards and more than a few forwards in the competition would love having him delivering those passes into them. His passing can be a little inconsistent but I think he has a nice skill set to build on. I made a comment in my phantom write up that he was fairly one sided and this was wrong. He actually is one of the better dual side players available this year. He is left footed but also is good on his right and gets good penetration and has good feel on his non-preferred.

Clearance-wise he wins his fair share and he works hard to get the ball clear often by sheer hard work rather than any innate ability. His hands in close are okay without being outstanding. In the contested situations he often does well to keep the ball in front of himself so that he stays in the contest. In those situations he will often come out the other side with the ball in hand. He has excellent core strength and has a lower centre of gravity which allows him to compete effectively in contests. In space he uses the handball well and is probably one of the better exponents of the attacking handball in this year’s draft.

In the forward half he is quite composed in front of goal and takes his time and seems to have a good idea of where the goals are but this is not a strength of his. Down back he looks more unsure of himself and can be prone to panicking and taking poor options. He is a good tackler and is tenacious in the chase and is a nice mark of the ball often judging the ball in flight better than the opposition player. He is not a big contested marker but he takes a few marks by being able to get into space and collect marks. He performed very well at State Screening in the jumps and would have been fourth overall in both jumps if he had been at the Combine. He is a solid guy already and should end up being a powerfully built footballer after a bit of time on an AFL strength program. His endurance is solid but is something which will be built on pretty heavily in his first preseason.

Butcher was the WA captain this year and led what was really a pretty young team. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders and is has started an electrician apprenticeship whilst he waits to see where he is drafted to. I was a bit surprised he did not receive an invite to Draft Combine as I thought he would be more highly regarded than some of the invites. He has been playing senior football for Peel this year and doing okay from a few reports I have seen. I see it as a very strong indication of his ability to step up to AFL level that he was able to step into the WAFL and average 21 disposals, 4 marks and 4 tackles in senior company right off the bat. I know that Brisbane and Geelong have talked to him and I am sure someone will pick him up.

Overall he is a footballer who happens to also be an excellent athlete and I find it hard to understand why he is not more highly regarded. If he was a Victorian I have no doubt many would have him in the top 10 and he compares very favourably to many of the guys who are getting talked up on BF. The kid is a footballer who has a lot going for him imho.


Pick 37 Geelong

I am expecting Geelong to swing for the fences a bit in this draft trying to grab guys who have high ceilings but for whatever reason have fallen to them. Whoever they take is likely to need to have some pace and be a good user of the ball. Pitt probably fills that scenario the best here.

Jayden Pitt
DOB 7/10/92 Ht 188 Wt 70

Pitt I found hard to place because more than virtually anyone in this draft he still seems like a like a boy and projecting where he will end up seems further into the future. He has nice height but he is a typical thin gangly adolescent rather than the often very mature young men he is playing against. He is also highly thought of by regular TAC watchers but in the two Champs games I saw him play (against Qld and SA) I thought he was disappointing and his biggest selling feature (i.e. his accurate passing) was sorely missing. He missed targets too regularly and turned it over too often for me to rate him highly. Quite simply he looked like he struggled to step up to the next level and I was concerned with that he was a big risk not to be able to step up to AFL level. That is probably the main reason I have dropped him down to this area and perhaps I am being a little harsh especially given that guys like Snoop rate him very highly based on his Champs performances. Perhaps he was better in his other games.

No matter what though if you take him I think it is going to be on the basis that he is going to take longer to mature than other prospects and that it is unlikely that he will play next year. Perhaps supporting Snoop’s opinion of him he did manage to be selected in the All Australian team, kicking 8 goals and average 18 disposals per game playing predominantly as a wing / half forward. He does not seem to have any trouble getting free and seems to float around the park and instinctively know where to go to get open.

He has a reputation as a good kick of the ball and he does seem to read the play well and his weighting is usually good. He does have an odd style of kick with a high elbow and he closes his body off on contact with the ball which I think will adversely affect his ability to kick across his body. He has a jumping, abrupt leg action when kicking for goal but he seems well balanced with a good drop and they usually go straight so I am not that worried there. He is predominantly a right foot player but is more than capable with his left.

He plays as an outside player and does not have the body strength to stand and compete for the ball at clearances. If he is going to win a clearance it is going to be seagulling it and swooping on the chip as it spills free. His agility is good (10th at Combine in the agility test with 8.15) and he is elusive. He has clean hands and makes good decisions. Up forward I think he might be a good crumber as he does read the ball off hands pretty well. He can occasionally get caught dawdling with the ball and his awareness of tacklers is not fantastic. As far as option taking goes though I think he reads the play well and takes good options. He does not have elite pace but he does have speed and an extra gear and he often puts on the burners when he is chasing. He is a determined tackler and despite his lack of body size is pretty effective. As he develops I think he will be a good defensive player on the wing or up forward. He has had injury problems over the year and there is some thought that he might be a bit of a breaks easily kind of guy.

Overall I have found it pretty hard to peg where to select Pitt. There is a bit to like but also more than a few holes or concerns. Someone will take a punt on him that is for sure and from there its up to him. His body will need to be managed carefully to develop it and keep him on the park.


Pick 38 Hawthorn

I have the Hawks going with a KPD prospect in the first round and am going with flash in the second. Skinner can come in and be the player that they thought they had in Petersen as an X factor forward. With Roughhead perhaps playing more ruck or defense they need someone who can kick a few and Skinner can do that and combine with Cyril to make a very good defensive forward combination.

Zephi Skinner
Age: 21 Ht: 189 Wt: 78kgs

I really rate Skinner and would like to see him given a chance and with what he has done this year I am sure someone will give him that chance. A few teams like Brisbane and Hawthorn have been burned recently with some of their indigenous guys but with the success of Jurrah I think quite a few teams will be looking to plunge in and hopefully snare a similar type of guy. As far as Jurrah goes Skinner is the closest one available this year although personally I realized when I watched them play against each other that he is much more similar in style to Darryl White. He is an exceptionally gifted, athletic, indigenous player from a remote aboriginal community in the Kimberley who plays with flair and seems to have a genuine love of the game.

Skinner has X factor written all over him. He has an enormous leap regularly relieving in the ruck and in fact he started in the ruck for the game when he picked up the AFLQ Rising Star nomination. In that game he managed to collect 19 disposals, 3 marks, 27 hit outs, 7 tackles and a goal. He plays as a utility spending most of his time up forward where he is dangerous around goal. He is exceptionally elusive with the ball in hand and had one of the best (almost) goals you will ever see in the AFLQ final series, evading 4 players before narrowly missing with his snap. Like bothWhite and Jurrah he has pace and can really get up there and although he has solid hands I would not put them in the Jurrah class. I also don’t think he has Jurrah’s ability to read the play up the ground and as a consequence he can mistime his lead or be out of position when the ball comes in. I do think however that he is much better up the ground than Jurrah and presents himself as an option going forward and gets to good spots to receive. He looks to me like a mobile half forward / utility who you could throw wherever and he would do the job. He needs to build his tank however and does fade in and out of games.

Going the other way his tackling is good and could be exceptional as he builds his endurance base. He has excellent closing ability up forward for a tall player and his technique is good. He averaged around 6 tackles a game in the AFLQ although quite a few of those are from in the ruck contest where he can recover very quickly and lay the tackle on the mid getting the ball. He is also a good smother of the ball which does not appear in most stat sheets. The better the opposition the better Skinner went last year and he had a stand out game against the minor premiers in round 17 and picked up three goals in a losing effort in the finals. He kicked 13 goals in his last 6 games (in a team with the competitions leading goal kicker).

According to the NT coaching staff he has a terrific attitude and is a real positive influence around the club. He is a character and is genuinely everyone’s friend. Skinner finished second in the NT’s under 23 player of the year (behind Ewing who managed 78 goals in the AFLQ) despite missing 3 games through injury and ended up being the runaway winner of the AFLQ Rising Star award (receiving 39 votes with 19 being the next best). That award is selected by a group of AFLQ people and AFL recruiters and a large part of the selection criteria is potential AFL ability. He trained with the Bulldogs prior to last season’s rookie draft and has shown good development this year. Apparently he is on quite a few team’s radars and I think they are going to have to take him in the national draft to be sure of getting him. How high is going to be the question mark. He played some colts games for Claremont back in 07/08 but returned home. He seems more mature now and likely to stick out a move to an AFL club but I suggest the weather in WA or Qld is more likely to suit him.

Overall if you are looking to add an X factor to your team then you should be looking at Skinner. It’s a shame he is not a little taller but with his leap he remains a threat and is a kid more than a few teams will be looking at.


Pick 39 Gold Coast

Gold Coast at this stage will just be taking the best player available and will not be afraid to take a few guys with flags. Newton could be a very nice player who could hold his own with others taken. Taking the lead from the Lions expect the Gold Coast to steer away from Victorians when in doubt.

Ben Newton
DOB 8/8/92 Ht 184 Wt 77

Catching sight of Newton this year was easier said than done this year. Coming off a AIS year and great Colts season in 09 a lot was expected of Newton this year. He lived up to the billing early in the year averaging 22 possession per game but unfortunately he had to have his appendix removed just before the Champs and the month on the sidelines and the enforced inactivity killed off his momentum. He was solid at the Champs without really standing out. Later in the season he did his ankle and ended up having to attend the Combine with his foot in a moonboot. So all in all it wasn’t the season he would have been hoping for. Still if you are looking for a guy with a lot of potential who might come cheap then Newton might be your man.

Newton is a midfielder / HFFer who is a ball winner and quality user of the ball. He is still pretty slight and will definitely need to put on a fair bit of weight before playing in the AFL but more than anything else about him I like the way he moves. It’s not easy to explain but he just moves like a footballer. He is not quick (in fact he is a little on the slow side probably) but he is a smooth mover who moves easily in contested situations. He has really good balance and for his size has really good core strength. He is a run and carry guy who likes to break the lines and set up play. I think he often thinks he is quicker than he is and is a bit prone to being run down. In the clearances he has a knack of finding space and when he is tackled he clears his arms well. He uses the ball well by hand picking good options although he does need to work on getting a bit more velocity into his handballs. Kicking wise he doesn’t have great penetration but he does read play well, take good options and weight kicks well. He particularly leads his forwards well inside 50. He is a goal a game player at Colts level and so can kick goals but at the Champs he missed a few straight forward chances that left me wondering a bit about his finishing ability. In the middle he wins his share of clearances and has pretty clean hands. He needs to up his endurance base to take full advantage of his skills. He also tends to hold the ball up too much I think. He marks and props and goes back over the mark. In short he takes too long and doesn’t play on quickly enough. His South Freo coach really rates him as a very determined guy with great character.

Overall I don’t think we have seen the best of Newton this year and there is still a lot of development left in him. Someone is going to buy on potential and he could pay off.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 40 Sydney

It would not surprise me if Sydney went with a KPD here as I thought they were a bit light in this area this year. As it is I have them going with a replacement small forward for Veszpremi. Gilbee I think would do well on the SCG and would give Sydney some needed depth up forward.

Jacob Gilbee
DOB 13/9/92 Ht 185 Wt 76

In my opinion Gilbee is the best mark in the draft this year and if he played for one of the Div 1 sides his would be a name being mentioned a lot. As it is he is a Taswegian and they more than any other State (except maybe NSW) are overlooked by recruiters. He is a superb read of the ball in the air and he will back himself no matter what his opposition is doing. He uses his body well and is strong in the contest. When the ball goes into his mitts it doesn’t come out. He is very dangerous because of that and particularly when playing up forward.

His defensive skills are good inside 50 and he is a stronger tackler than most HFFer options in the draft. Gilbee started the Champs playing as a half back flanker before making a name for himself when he went forward particularly in the game against SA when he kicked four goals. He mostly gets his goals as a mobile marking target rather than crumbing but his hands are pretty good when the ball is on the ground as well. When kicking for goals he does not have massive range (45 is probably about his limit) but he kicks through the ball no matter what the difference and he has very good accuracy. He works very hard and often runs his man off the feet. He may lack a yard of pace but his work rate and ability to change directions on a dime gives him opportunities. He ran a very impressive 15.1 beep test at the Combine (4th overall) and personally I think he once he gets into an AFL environment he will improve this substantially. He could very well be an elite runner once he hits the AFL. In the agility test he also did a very respectable 8.10 (8th overall).

He is a big chipper of the ball around the ground which is pretty much the way the AFL is played nower days. He has nice feel on his kicks although again not much penetration. His handball skills are good and he uses them well when he has the opportunity. When he is playing back he works well as a link man between the various units with his running allowing him to get open and his marking ability creating a good get out option if his teammates need to kick to a contest. He sees his game as resembling that of Dale Thomas and although he lacks Thomas’ pace I think he could follow his development path and move into the midfield in due course as an outside mid. He will start as a forward where his marking and defensive skills will get him game time.

Overall I see Gilbee as a forward flanker and developing midfielder with quite a bit of potential and he is cheap here given the Tasmanian discount.


Pick 41 Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have already committed to young Libba here and he should be a bargain.

Tom Liberatore
DOB 16/5/92 Ht 182 Wt 78

If I had been given a choice of Libba or Wallis I would chosen Libba and I would not have had a problem taking him in the top 20. So to me the Bulldogs getting him where they are is a real bargain. Wallis is certainly a far superior outside player as far as finding it goes and getting to space but Libba is improving and closing the gap and once he gets the ball Libba uses it much better and with greater hurt factor than Wallis. In tight is where Liberatore excels and gets most of his possessions. Like his old man Liberatore is one of the inside mids that gets right up in the ruck’s pockets and is at the bottom of every pack. He doesn’t really have the solid nuggetty build of his old man but he should fill out a bit. Even being a bit light he is still strong over the ball and holds his feet very well in the contest. He needs to put on some weight to play the same game at AFL level but it probably won’t take him that long. In the contest he has quick clean hands and read the ball off hands as well as anyone. He is very tenacious and will keep following the pill even to the extent of dropping off one tackle and taking another. In tight he makes his fair share of tackles and works hard when the opposition has the ball although he can arm tackle a bit on occasions.

His kicking can be a little erratic under pressure which is nothing unusual at this level but when he has a bit of time he has pretty good feel on his kicks and he picks out his targets well. Although I rate his kicking are pretty good it’s surprising to me that he came in third in the kicking test at Combine. The other surprise for me coming from Combine was his 20m time. Whilst he always looked like he had reasonable pace I I did not expect him to go under 3 secs in the 20m. It wasn’t all good news though I expected his agility times to be significantly lower than they were. He did not do the endurance test which I was a little disappointed in. I think he needs to up his endurance base and I was interested to see where he was currently at.

Overall though the Bulldogs have secured themselves a first class extractor who should be at the bottom of every pack for the next 10 years at least.


Pick 42 Carlton

Carlton have been trying to develop a quarterback type player for a while now without success. Jacobs has the potential to play such a role in much the same way as Hurn does for the West Coast. With him back there it might also free Gibbs up to play in the midfield fulltime. I think Jacobs is likely to go higher than this on the day but here is about where I would take him.

Ben Jacobs
DOB 9/1/92 Ht 186 Wt 82

Jacobs really put his name up in lights with his game against SA when he racked up 47 possessions in Vic Metro’s upset of SA. He had 30 disposals to half time in a hugely dominant performance playing mainly off half back. Overall he managed to average 29 possessions per game for the Champs which was very good but sandwiched in there were at least a couple of very ordinary games against Country and WA. A lot of people love his left foot and he certainly has great penetration. His most commonly used kick is a short chip type pass but his leg strength allows his chip to be as long as most other players long kick. His accuracy though is not as good as many believe. He has the ability to read the play well coming from defence but his tendency to turn the ball over can see it coming back the other way very quickly. For those with the televised game on tape go back and have a look at the number of times he turned it over. Too many. When he is under pressure his disposal skills drop off even more. Note however he performed very well at the combine in the kicking test finishing 5th overall and that might reassure some teams tossing up whether to take him.

Jacobs is extremely confident in his own abilities demanding the ball from teammates at every opportunity. Too often his focus on getting the ball at every opportunity means that he ignores all the other things that go into winning games like defensive effort, tackling, shepherding etc. He all too often he costs his team more on the scoreboard more than he contributes. By all accounts he is not the easiest guy to coach and needs a kick up the backside to do the team things.

Back on the positives he is a very good mark of the ball and must have gone close to leading the Champs in marks with 27. He has an excellent leap on him finishing 4th overall with 84cm at Combine. He gets up there well and hangs on to it when he gets his hands on the ball. He often backs his marking ability a little too much when playing in the back half when he should be more disciplined and punch. Still AFL scouts usually like juniors to back themselves at this level and show confidence in their own abilities. He has a good strong body and uses it pretty well. He can play up forward and in the midfield but long term I see him as a half back. There are a few comparisons going around but the player he reminds me most of is Hurn from West Coast both in body shape, kicking ability and playing in the back half and not being a particularly strong defensive player.

Overall a Jacobs is a guy with a couple of major weapons who needs to become more disciplined and make himself listen to coaching staff. I probably have him lower then he will go in the real thing but I rate doing the team things highly as I believe they are central to a winning team.


Pick 43 St Kilda

The Saints are in their window but they really need to start to address their KPD deficiency. Were it me I would look very seriously at Hartigan. He looks like he can step up and has shown good development this year. He is also a year further down the development track than a standard first year prospect having played in the VFL last year and so he might be able to contribute sooner.

Kyle Hartigan
Height: 194cm, Weight: 89kg, DOB: 7/11/91

I would be surprised if Hartigan is not in the minds of many teams this year after having a very solid year in the VFL playing on many AFL listed players and doing a good job on most. Although technically an overage prospect it is worth noting he is only a couple of months older than some of the under 18s. I expected someone to take Hartigan last year at least as a rookie but he was somewhat surprisingly overlooked. He has taken the disappointment in his stride and shown good development with Werribee over the course of the year and should be right in consideration again this year. Last year I questioned his ability to step up to AFL level last year but the way he has come on this year has given me much more confidence that I had previously.

He played the first half of the year in the Werribee reserves before cracking the senior side midseason. In senior company he has continued to acquit himself well and done some good jobs on the top goal kickers in the VFL. Playing for Werribee the ball came into him frequently and with not much pressure and he stepped up well. He plays as a blanketing one on one defender and as demonstrated in his junior years he is capable of finding the ball. If you are in need of a tall defender he is one to definitely consider and personally I think he is head and shoulders above the U18 prospects likely to be available here on performance and has at least as much upside. He is composed at the back and looks assured.

He does venture up forward a bit but is a damn ordinary shot for goal. Think Cloke-type accuracy in front of goal. He has good size and reasonable athletic ability. With ball in hand he makes okay decisions and is a reasonable kick without being a stand out. He has continued to develop his aerial work and is now a very good judge of the ball in the air and he makes good decisions about whether to mark or spoil. Marking wise his hands are good. All around he is a solid defender who has continued to show development and now looks like he could play AFL football. He did the Victorian State Screening last year and his jumping and endurance were very good being in the top 20% for each. His agility was below average but not by much and was solid for a big guy. His pace off the mark was poor but he showed pretty good top end speed and his first 5 metres was something he acknowledged he needed to work on. Over the last few years there have been quite a few KPDs who have had quite poor 20m times and have stepped up well. Hartigan has a reasonable 20m time and I think his initial pace should not stop him performing at AFL level. He is certainly quicker than Silvagni and tested better than McCarthy.

Overall Hartigan is a young, disciplined defensive player with good size and reasonable athleticism who has shown he is able to step up and contain AFL standard forwards. I certainly would have no trouble giving him a chance.


Pick 44 Fremantle

A few of the Freo small forward type options left the list this year and it would not surprise me if a HFF / midfielder was taken this year. At this stage I like the looks of Dalhaus who has potential in both slots.


Luke Dalhaus
DOB 21/8/92 Ht 178 Wt 72

Okay an admission he was not in my mock prior to getting a look at his testing results and then I thought why the hell not this kid could do a job and do it well. That job would be as a defensive forward because I do not see him having the skills or ball winning ability to play through the midfield like he did a lot at the Champs and at TAC and school level. Playing in the midfield he didn’t impress me when asked to step up against better opposition at the Champs. I thought he was around the ball a lot but rarely made a play on the ball and when he did he seemed unable to clear the pack.

His hands were fairly slow and his decision making in tight not to the standard I would want. He is fairly light and was buffeted around in the contests a lot without much core strength and a tendency to leave his feet too easily. Having said all that though I believe he was not set up to succeed at the Champs and would have had more of an impact if he was used better. On returning to the Falcons after the Champs he played some good football both up forward and through the midfield. He also played some good games through the midfield for his school but at the top levels I think he is going to be a forward or nothing.

In the TAC he averaged 21 possessions, 6 tackles and a goal a game, was selected in the TAC team of the year and finished third in the Morrish Medal. He can be creative in going for goal but at the moment I think he is probably only an average set shot. He has a little but of a tendancy to pull the ball up before the drop and I am thinking that an AFL team will work hard to correct this technique issue. He is a kid though that will work his butt off on the field and makes every effort to impact the play no matter where he is playing. In the AFL I am sure a team would be looking to develop him into a tricky small forward / crumber like Stephen Milne except with more pace and a better defensive game.

In the state screening Dalhaus put on an exceptional display that would have opened more than a few eyes. In fact his agility test would have done that on its own. If he had been at the Combine he would have smashed by a long way Hill’s agility record as well as finishing a narrow third in the 20m, third in the running vertical and a narrow second in the standing vertical. This kid has the athleticism equal to anyone in the AFL and his closing speed and tackling ability will get him a job the way the AFL is played at the moment. He will worry half backs and create turnovers and is competent enough to finish. His midfield experience I think will allow him to read the ball off hands and his speed and agility should create plenty of opportunities from spillages. Finishing skills can be polished but the natural gifts he has don’t come along very often and its not like with a novice here. The kid is already a competent footballer albeit one with a few deficiencies in his game.

Overall I see Dalhaus starting his career as a defensive forward who will hopefully pick up a few goals himself. He may get some midfield time but I would not be picking him with an expectation that he would make a name for himself. His athleticism would overcome many of the height concerns that might be associated with him. I think he is a risk but one well worth taking late in the draft.


Pick 45 Collingwood
Collingwood lost Medhurst and Lockyer to retirement and will I think be looking to move Beams more into the midfield next year so they will at some stage look to add a small forward. O’Driscoll I think has the potential to play Collingwood style football and he is the guy I would be taking. I actually had O’Driscoll a lot higher than this originally and have no trouble with him being here despite no-one else rating him.

Joel O’Driscoll
DOB: 20/1/92 Ht: 178 Wt: 77

Harley Bennell light. Both Bennell and O’Driscoll are from Pinjarra and have played together a lot but whilst Bennell is a name on everyone’s lips, everyone has, for some reason ignored O’Driscoll and I can’t really understand why. Personally I thought he did more than enough to be considered a top 50 by most people. Offensively he does virtually everything that Bennell does just not quite as well. He does not quite read the ball as well coming in or off hands, does not quite have the same goal sense, is not quite the same marking threat and does not quite have the clean hands on the deck. Still he is pretty reasonable in all of these areas and certainly good enough to warrant selection in the draft. He is probably a longer kick than Bennell and I have seen him kick it 50 off one step and put it through 2/3 post height from 45. He also does the little team things which Bennell doesn’t. That is he will put the shepherd on and work for his teammates.

He is not in the greatest shape but he will chase defensively and lay the tackle. His lack of fitness is something which personally gives me the view that if your team takes the risk on him you could end up with a diamond in the rough. He is an indigenous guy and has a typical frame but he is carrying a bit of pudge around the middle and when he gets into a fulltime environment this will quickly disappear and his speed and endurance should jump significantly. He has reasonable pace now and has the potential to be a nice defensive forward who could spend time in the midfield. He swapped around with Bennell between the forward line and the midfield. In the midfield he tends to be around the ball a fair bit but was not a big possession winner at the Champs. He looks good in space and is a smooth mover. He does not have the cleanest hands but he does well keeping himself in the play and often comes out with it. He has reasonably quick hands in the contest and his handballs are good and he is one of the few in the junior ranks who makes things happen with his handballs leading his targets well hitting them in stride and to advantage. His decision making with the ball is a strength and he has a quick football brain and assesses a situation very quickly. I haven’t seen a huge amount of him but with what I have I would have no trouble picking him if I was a list manager.

Overall I like this kid as a potential steal of a HFF / wing prospect who if he got in shape could be better than most taken in this draft. The key to him I think will be whether he is prepared to do the work necessary to meet his very nice potential.


Pick 46 Collingwood

Malthouse has recently seen no need to play a specialist tagger and it will be interesting to see if that ideology continues with Buckley. I think Buckley might like to keep his options open and taking Guthrie here is fair enough value.

Cameron Guthrie
DOB 19/8/92 Ht 186 Wt 79

Its been a bit of a surprise to me the amount of talk he is getting as a first round prospect. He is not someone who stood out for me at the Champs at all (only managing 13 disposals per game) except for his game against WA. In that game he was matched up on Bennell for an extended period and was a significant factor in Bennell having a shocker. Moving into senior ranks he is likely to be seen as a tagger or defensive back pocket player and it is not common for AFL teams to spend too much on those types of players especially when they were not able to do a whole hell of a lot going the other way even at junior level.

For a guy who is primarily a defensive player he is not bad with the ball in hand. He is good under pressure and takes nice options with the ball in hand. He is middle of the road as far as penetration goes but has a nice relaxed style that gets the ball where it needs to go with good feel on his kicks. He had 84% efficiency on his disposals at the Champs and this is very good for a player who spends large chunks of his game time closely matched up with another player. He is very right footed and can get caught out on occasions by having no left foot and trying to get onto his right. He displays clean hands with the ball on the deck and shifts his focus quickly from the ball to his surroundings once he collects.

If you watch his highlight reel you can’t help but notice that it is filled with a series of very nice contested marks. He has nice height for a medium defensive player and his excellent jumping ability (6th in the running vertical with 83cm and 5th in the standing vertical with 65cm) make it difficult for him to be marked over top of. In fact it is not uncommon for him to come over the top of key positions when he is playing down back. Above his head his hands are very nice as well and his 3 marks per game at the Champs (many contested) was no fluke. Pace is another one of his main attributes and he showed very often that he had the pace to go with quick mids and forwards. When he gets the ball he occasionally shows dash with pace but this is something which he needs to focus on more.

At the moment he does not have anywhere near the endurance base to play at a tagger at AFL level. Expect him to start his career as a medium shut down defender and he could do this job very nicely although teams would want to see him run off more. He will need a little bulk but he has a reasonable build to start with. It was not surprising that he tested poorly for endurance at the Combine although the it might have surprised many how poorly he did in the beep test and 3km test. He will be hoping that there is a team or two that see this as a positive. That is he already has good fundamentals in place and a good mindset and if the team can build his engine he should be able to better utilize the assets he already has. Building endurance is a lot easier than rebuilding a kicking style or teaching an athlete how to be a defender.

Overall I think he is a solid middle round tagger / back pocket prospect who is being overblown on BF a bit atm being talked of as a first rounder.


Pick 47 Richmond

Richmond might look at taking another HFF / wing with the move of Morton into the midfield and Collins and Roberts moving on. I have some serious concerns about Lamb but its hard to argue that he wouldn’t be value here.


Jed Lamb
DOB 19/10/92 Ht 181 Wt 79

Some guys rate him highly some don’t. I happen to fall into the latter camp. I feel Lamb is the kind of small forward who dominates at junior level but doesn’t have the tools to do the same when he reaches the AFL. Guys like Maric and Rockliff are examples of guys who I thought would be able to translate their forward games to the AFL but just haven’t been able to. Like those players Lamb has neither the pace nor the endurance to create separation at AFL level. He is good overhead but is fairly short and his hands are not of the standard of leading forwards like LeCras and with his pace he is going to have a player breathing down his neck every step of the way.

He works reasonably hard defensively but he is not a difference maker in that role like Davey was. He is clever around goal but he does not have Steve Johnson’s nose for goal or goal sense. He is a little bit of a lot of the top small forwards running around but there are also big holes in his game and his potential to impact at AFL level as a small forward. He will mix up his avenues to goal but he tends to get most of them by marks inside 50. He judges the ball very well in the air and is not distracted by what is happening around him. His hands are solid but in a very good year for marking players I would not put him at the top of the class. If the ball falls to him from a contest he is quick to take advantage of it but he is not a traditionally crumber in that he is not someone you see regularly arrive at a spillage at pace. Usually he just happens to be in the vicinity if he picks up a crumbing goal.

He is not a big kick of the ball but has range to 50 and is a pretty accurate shot for goal. He definitely has a forwards mentality. If the ball comes to him anywhere near goal he is going for goal. He does have pretty good awareness of where his teammates are on the park and can pick them out if he doesn’t think he can goal himself but if he thinks he is half a shot to put it through he is taking it. I don’t think he has the elusiveness to rely on that for his bread and butter at AFL level. He has below average pace and his change of direction is not a strength.

If I was taking him I would be hoping he could up his endurance base (also currently below average) and convert into a midfielder. He carries himself like a football and I think with his game reading ability he could be a nice option on a wing. He demonstrated very nice kicking skills at Combine which would have got him positive attention. He won the kicking test breaking the record and posting a 29/30 score. I have to say that despite his test I am a little sceptical about his kicking which is another of the reason he is this low. At one game I watched him live I saw him put it out of bounds on the full about three times. Sometimes under pressure and sometimes not and some of his kicks were just bad. Still I am prepared to concede he might just have had a bad day and I could see him developing like Rockliff if he can lift his workrate - that is a smart player who just makes everyone around you better and takes the good options.

Overall I see Lamb’s best opportunity to make it being as a midfielder. His athletic shortcomings seem like very limiting factors to his forward career to me.


Pick 48 Essendon

The Bombers delisted a few talls and should be looking to add one or two back to the list. Forward is probably the biggest need area and Walker offers them an excellent marking target if nothing else. If he could fix his goal kicking he could be a steal this low in the draft.

Josh Walker
DOB 12/11/92 Ht 196 Wt 87

Tarqs probably wouldn’t forgive me if I didn’t put Walker in and its fair enough as he rightly deserves to be in here. He is a key position forward who would be close to be being the best mark of any of the key positions available this year. He has grown a couple of centimetres this year and is now a very nice height and he uses it well. He is strong, holds his position and protects the drop zone exceptionally well. He also is strong in the air and when he goes up he is not easily moved aside. The last aspect is his hands and quite simply if he gets his hands on the ball it sticks whether it is above his head or down low.

He didn’t test at the Combine which is a shame but according to his coach he runs a 14+ beep test and he certainly moves around the park well. He gets up the ground and he will burn the defender off ala Nick Reiwoldt. He does not have great pace so relies on his endurance to create separation. When he is not able to do that he is forced into a contested marking situation and luckily he is very good in this area.

His major weakness is his kicking. In fact he might be considered quite similar to Cloke in that he is a great contested mark but just can’t finish and make the opposition pay. He has a bit of a high release and his drop is a little inconsistent. Given he comes from a football family and has been at it all his life I worry that the deficiencies might be past fixing. With that said he has been improving apparently over the course of the year both his goal kicking and his field kicking. He punches the ball with his field kicks and I think he reads the play pretty well it is just the execution that needs some work at the moment. Whilst he is a good mark down low, when the ball is on the ground he doesn’t get down as well as I would like. Defensively he works hard and harder than most of the other KPFs around.

Overall I think as a late second or third round pick Walker offers good value and if he could keep improving his kicking he could be a real steal.


Pick 49 Gold Coast

I am not sure how many picks Gold Coast are taking and seeing as I had already done up the write up for Hickey before they took him as a Qld zone selection they can have him here. He is great value for the Gold Coast and continues the crazy concessions the GC were given. The club representatives who agreed to the concessions should all head their head in shame.

Tom Hickey
DOB 6/3/91 Ht 201 Wt 87

I pretty much disregarded Hickey after the Champs where I rated his performance as mediocre despite averaging 18 hit outs per game. Against decent opposition his tap work was not great and rarely to advantage and around the ground he was a non-factor. My opinion of him changed though once he cracked the Morningside senior side in the latter part of the year and was a significant part in the drive to the AFLQ premiership. Rucking against the likes of ex-AFL players like Putt, Spider Everritt and Trent Knobel he stood up and looked like a completely different player from the one I saw at the Champs. He was getting off the ground and competing well in the ruck contests and directing his taps much better. Also whereas at the Champs he would drop back into the hole when he got his chance at AFLQ level he became much more of an around the ground factor.

He is an excellent mark of the ball and uses his height very well to mark the ball where it is impossible for most other players to reach it. His judgment in the marking contest is excellent for a ruck prospect. In the AFLQ he had the advantage of being able to be used in bursts and it seems to me that his endurance base needs quite a bit of work before he is going to a significant factor at AFL level. He models his game on Matthew Leuenberger but I am not sure he has the natural endurance capability that Leuenberger has. Still when he was out on the ground at the end of the year you could definitely see similarities in the style of play. Like Leuenberger he is very quick to recover from the tap and become a factor in the clearance. He will get more than his share of clearances and he is an excellent tackler for a big man (he averaged 3 per game at the Champs).

Kicking wise his technique needs some work to address the pull up he has on his release of the ball. With anyone but particularly with ruckmen you do not want the ball to be further from the foot then it has to be as that is just asking for trouble. With that said he has a nice left foot and has excellent feel on his kicks and weights his passes as well as any ruckman available this year. His vision is good and he usually takes good options and is not rushed when he gets the ball. He has pretty good hands and his below the knees work is solid to good. It is well worth noting that he finished 5th overall in the clean hands test at Combine. I have to say him measuring in at 201.4 at Combine also helped my opinion of him. Before when he was listed at 199 height I had some concerns but that extra inch has assuaged my worries. All he needs now is to put on some weight. He is still very much a bean pole and is a year or two away from being able to compete at AFL level. He will be on a high carb diet with lots of protein shakes for the next year or two and will be lucky to set foot outside the gym. The team that gets him will need to be careful to preserve his athleticism as I think they can go a bit overboard building bulk and failing to preserve the athleticism of the player.

Before signing with the Gold Coast I was very confident Hickey would be taken by someone in this draft as after Gorringe and Lycett I see only he and Phillips as viable options. He is a volleyball convert who really only started to take his AFL seriously last year and came on very strongly toward the end of the year. He is still picking up the nuances of higher level AFL but he screams development potential. He has shown himself to be prepared to listen and John Blair his club coach has done a great job with him. Lets hope his good work is continued at the next level. Hickey finished in third (behind Zephi Skinner and Todd Grayson) in the AFLQ Rising Star award an award judged by a variety of QAFL and AFL recruiters and which strongly weights AFL potential.

Overall Hickey is one of the better ruck prospects this year based on his late season development. He and Smith could form an excellent Qld ruck combo for the Gold Coast for years to come.


Pick 50 Melbourne

Melbourne supporters like to think they are sorted with their young mids and they certainly have made big start with the first two picks last year but I still think they need to add a few more class mids. Conca would be a great get here and he has dropped a bit lower than I had intended. If he was taken around 40 it would fit in with where I see him at in this draft.

Reece Conca
DOB 12/8/92 Ht 185 Wt 79

I have Conca well down the list compared to some because I struggle to see where he is going to play in the AFL. He will probably be sold as a half back but he is not a great defensive player and on the rebound he is pretty good but nothing to write home about. He has a lot of reasonable skills but nothing about him demands “pick me”. What he has done to date is be able to continue to step up and continue to get the ball and influence the game as he has progressed through leagues. He had a very solid Champs for an average WA team averaging 18 possessions a game and when he got the chance in the WAFL at the end of the year he continued to progress and picked up 19 disposals a game.

He has mid range pace and mid range athleticism all around. So not slow but not particularly quick either. When he is in the midfield he plays as an outside in player who occasionally will win a clearance but plays mostly as a receiver. Probably his best skill is his ability to find space. He has a great sense of where to go to receive uncontested ball no matter where on the park he is playing. He needs to improve his endurance to take full advantage of this and if he can he could be a good ball winner at AFL level. He gets quite a lot of marks (5 per game at the Champs) but this is usually because he gets to space so well rather than because he is a good mark of the ball. That is not to say he is a poor mark but I think he is not up there with the better marks in the draft and he does drop a few he should take.

His kicking is solid and it probably tends to look better than it is because he takes his time and takes good options. He is very right footed and the need to get onto his right can sometimes get him into trouble. He gets to space well and this gives him time to evaluate the situation and not be rushed. The determination not to be rushed does often tend to see him slow down the play too much which is not going to fly well in the AFL where that often allows defences to reset and makes things difficult. As mentioned he takes quite a lot of marks but when he takes his marks he invariably stops and props and if he doesn’t go back over the mark he certainly slows things down. He rarely just takes the mark and takes off. He does not have a forward mentality and if he gets the ball inside 50 his first instinct is to pass off. Add to that that he is a relatively poor tackler who does not work hard enough defensively and I think he has a way to go before he will be playing AFL football unless it is for a team looking to blood their young players early. I see him as a leader and he was one of the more vocal players in the WA team. He could be seen getting in there and trying to rev up his players at the breaks at the Champs.

Overall I see him as someone who could go anywhere between 20 and 50. He does not have a lot of weapons but I am sure someone will see something they like.

 

[Quigley]

Pick 51 Richmond

Despite the attention that Martin, Cotchin and Deledio received in the media it was clear this year that the midfield at the moment does not function without Tuck. When he wasn’t in there in the early season the Tigers were not in the game. Accordingly I am going with a guy with similar limited athletic talent but similar ball winning ability. Sewell is a nuts and bolts guys who will win the ball to allow the stars to shine.

Myles Sewell
Height: 185cm, Weight: 78kg, DOB: 22 years old

Okay time to recycle a write-up from last year with a few minor updates. Sewell had a slightly down this year compared to last when he won the JJ Liston Trophy. Still its only relative and he still had a very nice year and with the success of Barlow quite a few teams are going to be more inclined to take a chance on the athletically challenged inside mid. His BOG performance in the VFL Grand Final and 31 possessions in the State game against WA are also not going to hurt his chances. He got a fair bit of interest last year but in the end none pulled the trigger. All indications are that that will change this year and if he falls through to the rookie draft GWS have said they are going to take him.

He has developed into a tenacious, inside mid in the mould of his brother and Sam Mitchell. Both of those guys were also late developers and did things the hard way and Myles is going down that route as well. He has been in the VFL for the last 4 years and played as a tagger (like his brother) for the first two of those. Last year he improved his running and skills and was freed up from his tagging responsibilities and he flourished as a ball winning mid. He significantly improved his outside game and got many more cheap possessions than he had done previously. He remained very hard at it and an excellent in and under ball winner but the outside work really makes him a much more appealing prospect. He averaged 27 possessions a game last year. The biggest issue with him might be that he lacks a yard or two of pace (and this was confirmed with a very pedestrian time at the State screening this year – Sidebottom slow) but with an inside mid I think you can get away with that. Another thing the State Screening proved is that he is never going to win any high jump awards. Young Myles can hardly get off the ground and finished last or close to in all the jumping tests. One area where he was expected to excel and which he did was in the beep test. Being an older guy you would expect that but he still had to put up the score and he was right up there with the best tests ever done at a screening.

Skills wise he has continued to improve and they have gone from a definite weakness now to what could reasonably be considered to be AFL standard. His skills are still curving up and there is no reason to believe he will not continue to improve. He has reasonable penetration on his kicking and his in tight work is good. His vision and awareness around the packs is excellent and his hands are pretty quick. I am certain this guy could step in and play AFL next year and play it pretty well and he could have significant improvement left in him. He is a lot lower risk than most of the 18 year olds that are going to be available around here and you know that his hunger is strong. He has come up the hard way and has had to work for every step he has taken. You know that he is going to give it everything if he makes the AFL and the recent successes of the likes of Barlow, Pods, Broughton and Anthony have demonstrated that teams have been stupid to ignore the guys like Sewell who have dominated in the leagues below.

Overall he is a good solid player who will win you the ball, get you going in the right direction and will hit his targets. His ceiling might not be exceptionally high but he is a pretty low risk option and the rewards are more certain than a lot of the kids available here. Note there is still a fair chance GC could snatch him before the draft.


Pick 52 Port Adelaide

Port really focused on developing indigenous talents under the previous regime and it will be interesting to see if that continues under Primus and his team. Kruse I think could offer them everything they had hoped to get from Krakouer as a running HBFer and his extra height allows him to match up on talls and mediums. He could really add a dimension to the Power drive from half back.

David Kruse
DOB 23/1/92 Ht 191 Wt 74

I really like this kid and am a bit surprised more people aren’t onboard. He looks like a player to me and I’m sure he will end up on a list somewhere whether it is on a main list or as a rookie. My only real concern with him is how he will adapt to the move away from the NT. He returned to the Tiwi Islands from boarding school in Adelaide this year and I am sure teams will have questioned Kruse pretty intently about his ability to deal with a move away from home.

Kruse is listed as a tall defender in the Combine invite list but he is not that. He compares himself to Jared Brennan and that is much closer to the truth. He does not have the supreme athleticism or polish that Brennan had when he was drafted but he has that kind of natural flair and ability to take the game on that Brennan has. His Combine results were a little disappointing but I take them with a bit of a grain of salt given he is a kid that did not train for the tests like most of the others. He is someone who plays with pace but when you look at his 20m times in isolation you would be more than a little disappointed. When you look closer though you realize he lost all his time in the starts. Once he was up to speed he was picking up time on most others. This was borne out in the repeat sprint results which were reasonable to good. He was worried about the 3km coming into the Combine and for most of it cruised along at the back before coming home with a withering sprint. In short don’t pay much attention to how he tested look at how he plays and accept that when he gets into a full time environment he is going to improve in most areas with specialist training.

He will need to put on weight but he has a build that looks like that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. On the field he does not look as light as his weight suggests he actually is. He plays as a flanker / winger and I think he will play similar roles in the AFL. I like him most as a HBFer where he has room to move going forward. Going forward he runs with his head up and with good pace (occasionally an issue when bouncing the ball and this is one area where he needs some skill work) and assesses what is in front of himself very well taking good options as they open up. He does kick it long into the forward line to a contest a little more than most AFL coaches would like but playing with a better quality of player who are able to get open I think this would easily be brought into line. He has a very relaxed kicking style like many indigenous guys and deceptively good penetration. His feel on his short to intermediate kicks is very good and on the longer kicks his weight is usually good as well.

He needs to work on his defensive skills but he tackles okay and reads the play very well knowing when to leave his man and cut out the ball. He is not a big aerialist but he has a fair jump on him and he has the height to worry most players he would be matched up on on a wing or flank. He plays with good pace and evasiveness and he uses that well during games although his endurance base limits him a bit at the moment. He is excellent with the ball on the ground and has a great ability to attack the ball on the ground at pace and collect it without fumbling. He doesn’t really have an inside game at the moment but with the quickness and cleanness of his hands I think this could develop as he matures similar to what has happened with Brennan. He performed well for the NT at the Champs and was solid in senior company in his 8 games for the NT in the AFLQ. His seniors coach believes he has the ability to step it up to AFL level.

Overall I like Kruse quite a lot as a mobile utility and think someone will take a chance on him. I would love him to slip through to the Lions in the rookie draft.


Pick 53 Melbourne

I am starting to get to the stage where I am trying to fit the guys I have written up with teams rather than picking for needs of the team in question. Fitzgerald though would be a good pick up for Melbourne and would be a handy developing key position.

Zac Fitzgerald
DOB 16/2/91 Ht 192 Wt 84

Fitzgerald is an overaged player who missed large parts of last year with injuries. Unfortunately he also had some injuries again this year including stress fractures to his feet which are a concern and will be another reason for teams to drop him down the list. Someone picking him up down the order though might get a bargain. I found it interesting to read that his coach said that he sees himself as a centre half back but his team saw him more as a centre half forward and then on the AFL website he compared himself to Goddard. Personally I think he is more likely to end up playing more of a role like Sam Gilbert does for the Saints.

For a fairly tall guy he moves very nicely around the field. I think he has the mobility to play on both bigs and smalls and is the kind of guy who likes to have the ball in his hands and setting up play with the game in front of him. He can run and break the lines and is an underestimated kick of the ball. He has very nice feel on his kicks and his penetration is good when he chooses to use it. Defensively he plays his best when he plays as the loose man or alternatively plays off his man a little and backs himself to read the play better than his opposition. He is not a big contested mark but floats across the packs to mark the ball or positions his body to protect it from a spoiler. He does a good job of positioning himself so that he has a clean shot at marks.

He is a smart footballer who reads the play well and takes good options. In the back half he seems to have time and uses what he needs. Up forward he did well at the Champs finishing with 5 goals despite splitting time down back. He has a bit of a stuttering run up on his set shot but he gathers and balances before kicking and he is usually an accurate shot. Playing as a roving half forward I like him kicking into the forward 50 as he leads his forwards very nicely and weights his kicks extremely well. He is not a hard leading forward and I worry about his ability to get separation at AFL level given he does not have speed or endurance to burn off defenders at the moment. Even at junior level he relied on being able to read the play better than his opposition or getting involved in contests to generate his goals.

Overall I think if a team plays Fitzgerald in the right way and don’t try and force him to do things he is unsuitable for he should become a solid third tall in defence who can do jobs on KPFs when needed. The big proviso is whether his body is going to hold up and that must be factored in as well.


Pick 54 Geelong

Geelong have a fair bit of age up front and may need to start to plan for their forward line post the current line up. Hawkins has yet to establish himself as a legitimate top forward in the AFL but there is still time but if things continue as they have Geelong will need some quality around him. Steinberg I originally had in the early 40s and would be a low risk high potential pick here.

Ariel Steinberg
DOB 26/8/92 Ht 191 Wt 83

First up I haven’t seen him live at all this year. After missing last year doing an exchange in Canada he dropped off the radar of most scouts and the TAC teams as well. It took some time for the TAC coaches to wake up to him tearing up the league in Mildura before he got a game with the Pioneers. After he was brought in he showed some excellent form in the 7 games he got to play creating a fair bit of buzz.

Steinberg is a hard leading forward in the mould of Jack Riewoldt. He works hard in the forward line and will use repeat efforts to get open. He runs onto the ball wall and times his arrival to his best advantage. He has a very nice leap and is takes a nice overhead mark. Similarly if the ball is coming in low he controls his body nicely and cushions the ball coming in well to hold the difficult mark. His kicking style for goal is a little side on in his follow through but he does have pretty good accuracy. He has a nice balanced approach and if he is putting it through that is all that really matters at the end of the day. He has good goal awareness and does put through some excellent goals from tight angles on the run. He is a little awkward on his left but he is not afraid to put it on the left boot and he shows a reasonable ability to put it through notwithstanding that it might not look pretty.

He worked hard on his game this year with a lot of it being on his own showing excellent dedication. He improved his fitness base a great deal over the course of the year and is a much improved player. He has played mostly in the forward 50 but shows good mobility and some potential to move up the ground as a mobile half forward as he builds his engine. Kicking into the forward line he leads his forwards well and puts it where they are likely to be the only ones who can get it. He has reasonable but not elite pace and got separation fairly easily at TAC level. At this stage he is still a fairly speculative pick but one who could pay off very nicely. He is a tad on the short side which might count against him. He has the talent and dedication to succeed at the next level and from the third round on that is what you are looking for more than anything else.

Overall Steinberg presents as a dangerous third tall option at AFL level who has shown excellent dedication to improving himself this year after going overseas on exchange last year. He is likely to be given a chance and there should be a fair bit more improvement left in him.


Pick 55 Hawthorn

If they went with someone like Cook in the first round it would not surprise me to see them go with a more standard KPD prospect here. There is no guarantee would make it as a defender. It’s unlikely that Reid would be their pick in any event but the kid is a quality prospect who has garnered some interest and I am continuing my crusade to promote the Qlders each year.

Nathan Reid
DOB 6/10/90 Ht 190 Wt 87

I received a tip that there has been a bit of interest in Reid from a couple of AFL clubs and thought I would throw him in here being a Queenslander even if he is more likely to be a rookie selection if he is taken. Reid started the year in great form for the SEQ Bushrangers in the U18 trials playing as a forward. He had some outstanding matches playing mostly as a forward. At the Champs and for Mt Gravatt in the seniors he split time between the forward and back lines. Personally I think if he is going to make it in the AFL it will be as a Joel Patfull styled backman. At 190cm his height is obviously the big concern for a guy who plays as a KP at the level below (it would be handy if we had an accurate measure as if his actual height is 193 as listed on his club website then my height concern is greatly reduced).

Like Patfull he is likely to be a more than capable forward at the lower levels but against the big boys I think he may be just a bit too undersized. He does have excellent athleticism and there may be some potential for him to be turned into a flanker but it will be necessary to remodel his game quite a bit. It would have been very handy if he had tested at the State Screening but I have word out of Qld that he is capable of going under 3 seconds in the 20m and is close to elite level for his size with his agility and his jumping. He got quite a bit of attention in AFL recruitment circles with his defensive job on Retzlaff in the AFLQ toward the end of the season and I understand Reid took a lot of confidence away from that encounter. Retzlaff is a very encouraging prospect for the Lions who has really developed for the Lions this year. Retzlaff is a 195cm, very athletic, wide roaming CHF and the fact that Reid was able to go step for step with him and completely shut him out of the game demonstrated quite a bit of potential from the 17 year old. Reid had the pace, agility and leap to stay with a guy who is elite in these categories. He also demonstrated very nice endurance, commitment and tenacity.

The kid is very disciplined in his defensive work particularly with his tackling where he likes to hit hard and really finish his tackles. One of the things that is great about him is he is never gives up on a contest. He can look out of it but has a great ability to close at the last second and get something on the ball. He was not really a factor at the Champs playing in a Qld team that seemed to not have much idea. He played a couple of games as a top up player for the Lions reserves and did okay before cracking the Mt Gravatt team for the last 6 games of the year (including 2 finals). He played as a KPF in the last 3 games and picked up 5 goals (including one bag of 3). He was in the best twice including for his game against the Lions. Up forward he is a hard leading player with reasonable but not great hands. He tends to fade in and out of games a bit and he can be held by quick athletic players. With that said he does work hard and will continue to present. His strength is a little lacking although about what you expect of a 17 year old in senior company. His kicking for goal is good to excellent but his around the ground kicking is probably a bit below that but still pretty solid and again I would probably compare it to Patfull – so solid without having huge hurt factor. Reid has no problem getting his hands dirty and will chase and tackle very well no matter if he is playing up forward or down back. He has also been well coached at club level and does the team things. He is well regarded at his club and from reports is a pretty down to earth kid.

Overall if he actually is 193cm I think Reid could be a steal as there is a lot of development left in him I think. At 190 he becomes much more marginal. Note he was not invited to Combine or State Screening.


Pick 56 Fremantle

Despite the departure of Tarrant, Freo seem pretty settled in the KPD department with the addition of Faulks and although it would not surprise me if they added another player the other end is probably the one that needs attention more. Karnezis is not really a KPF but he is a medium tall who could contribute in the forward line.

Patrick Karnezis
DOB 23/4/92 Ht 191 Wt 77

I have to admit I only have Karnezis in here because I am worried I am missing something. Personally I don’t really rate him and fail to see what all the fuss is about. He is a forward who struggles to get off the ground when he jumps and is really pretty slow. He is pretty good overhead but relies on a far too much on his height which is going to be pretty average even for a HFF at AFL level. In the AFL there are going to be plenty of half backs who are as tall as he is and much much more athletic. One of the things he does very well is time his arrival at the ball. This is something which might work in the AFL. He reads the ball very well in the air and holds up so he arrives at the ball giving his defender very little chance of spoiling the ball. With the ball on the ground he is good and has very clean hands. He is pretty mobile and seems to cover the ground well. Again though I would not say he is elite in either of those areas and I believe that an AFL defender would handle him comfortably.

He is pretty lean and I don’t think he is likely to be a big guy but he has reasonable strength for his size at the moment and you would expect to be able to maintain his relative strength. He is an accurate kick for goal although his style is a little unusual with him seeming to kick a little close to his body and under it slightly. With that said he gets pretty good distance and is fairly accurate so I don’t see any real need to change at the moment. Around the ground he plays on the outside well and gets to space as well as anyone going around. He comes from a soccer background and so has grown up playing a game that’s all about finding space to receive the ball. He has excellent spacial awareness and knows where the players are around him. His kicking is solid and he delivers into 50 pretty well. He started the year very well but ran down as the year progressed and did not finish the year at all well with him supposedly carrying in illness over the last month of the season.

Overall I would not be picking Karnezis where others have him going but I am willing to concede that there could be more to him than I am seeing. To me he looks like a HFF who will struggle to bring his game to the AFL.


Pick 57 Sydney

Sydney will look to add to their midfield depth this year with a lot of their top line mids getting close to retirement (or having retired in the case of Kirk). Crocker is a reasonable prospect who could do okay in the Sydney structure.

Sam Crocker
DOB 12/3/92 Ht 178 Wt 71

He is not a player I particularly rated and I only really did this write up because I heard that the Lions were interested in Crocker and so I have included him largely in case we actually did take him. Unfortunately I realized after I wrote this that the Lions seemed to have some interest in Matthew Crocker rather than Sam Crocker but what the hell I was not going to waste the work I had done.

Sam Crocker is a midfielder who has a reasonable inside and outside game and who might start his career on a flank, most probably up forward where he will play as a defensive forward who can kick goals when the opportunity presents. He is a good mark for his size but in the AFL he is going to be giving size away to pretty much everyone so that is not saying a whole lot. Still he will stick it if it comes his way. He tends to be a wide roaming HFF who would get up the ground rather than stick inside the 50 at the feet of his forwards and so I have not really seen him in this role before. Still he has reasonable hands in the contests and is a capable snap on both his left and his right foot so you would think he could be okay in an offensive role as well.

In the centre I do not think he reads the ball off hands particularly well but he has reasonably quick hands when he does and similar to Brodie Smith he can get the ball to boot very quickly. He gets excellent penetration with that no step quick kick action and his forwards if they were aware of it could give themselves an advantage. He is a left footer who sometimes has good to excellent penetration. It’s interesting to watch his style as it can be a bit variable. He can on occasions have a highish release and also he has had a tendency to wind into the ball when looking for extra distance. The winding action though rather than adding distance often takes it off. He seems to have been working on that though this year and more often he is squaring up with his kicks and kicking through it. When he does that he can get really good distance but his range is variable. He does not seem to have good feel on his kicks. He often takes good options but can miss targets with the ball falling short or going over the target’s head. He sees his long kick as his biggest weapon and I think he overuses it at this stage kicking to contests too often. Still when working on a new kicking style there are often these types of issues and there seems to be a fair bit kicking wise to like with him.

He is quick (and tested pretty well over the 20m at Combine) and spreads from a clearance well presenting himself as a marking target. He is good on the run and may turn into a line breaker being dangerous with the ball in hand and a long kick of the ball. I do like that he seems to be a team player and not afraid to roll up his sleeves and do the grunt work. He is a courageous player who will tackle, spoil and shepherd and generally throw his body around when necessary.

Overall I see him as a solid prospect but realistically there are a lot of guys at about the same level as a HFF and sometimes winger. He was a big improver over the year and has shown good commitment to improving himself.


Pick 58 Geelong

I needed to get my quota of Qlders up and so Geelong are the proud recipients of one. It’s a virtual certainty that Geelong will take a KPD at some stage this year and there are a few that are likely to be considered around there. Bell may or may not be in the mix but he is an interesting prospect who Geelong could do worse than have a look at.

Tom Bell
DOB 19 Ht 191 Wt 94

Bell came from the clouds this year to make a very sizeable impression on the AFLQ. He played for the premiership winning Morningside team and held down a KPD spot after debuting in May. On debut his captain described his game as the best debut he had ever seen. Prior to that game he had been ripping up the reserves for a few weeks and was plucked from the reserves to represent Qld at under 21 level. Given he was not on anyone’s radar early in the year he was overlooked for selection for the Qld U18 team early in the year and so missed all the preparation associated with the team. After the Qld team had been belted for the first three games he received a call up against Vic Country and was named Queensland’s best player. I have to say though that I was at that game and he didn’t really grab me but I guess he had a difficult job as a FB with the ball coming in as quickly as it was.

He was an AFLQ Rising Star nominee and finished 4th in the final balloting and it is worth noting he is the only nominee to receive two first place votes from the judges comprising AFLQ and AFL recruiters. His stand out performances in the first two weeks of the finals against quality opposition has really put his name up before the scouts. Bell showed in the game against Southport when he shut down McLaren that not only can he take talls but he can do jobs on the quick agile mediums as well. Bell is strong and composed under pressure and athletic enough to go with most KPs he will face even at AFL level. He holds his position pretty well but is a little top heavy and will need to build his lower half. He is disciplined defensively and not a real big mark of the ball. He has a very good tank being a former state cross country runner and can go with CHFs around the ground and on repeat leads.

His height is obviously the biggest concern being just 191 he is going to be giving away height most weeks in the AFL. He will need to be smart about how he goes about things at AFL level and will rely on strength, athleticism and superior ball reading ability. His ball reading ability still has a way to go before you would be comfortable running him out in the AFL but he is getting there. His kicking can be a little erratic although he does have good penetration and can hit long targets when given time. He is prone to deliver an occasional suicide handball in the back half although hopefully that can be coached out of him.

In addition to being a state cross country representative he also represented the state in soccer and is a top kite surfer. He was invited to State Screening and at present I think he is some chance to be selected in the National Draft and a reasonable chance in the Rookie Draft if he falls through to there. Someone who has seen a bit of him said he reminds him of Morris and that is a pretty good comparison. He is a tight defensive player who has limited go forward game at the moment but he does have the ability to do a job on talls or mediums and do it well.

Overall Bell is a solid mobile probably third tall defensive prospect at the moment. His attitude is first class and he has made big steps forward in the last year and might be considered by some teams.


Pick 59 Geelong

Geelong are pretty unlikely to take Gray here but I like him and Geelong happen to be left on the board so they are getting him. Good work Geelong Geelong may not use this pick but I have left them here because they are currently on the AFL site as having it.

Sam Gray
DOB 1/2/92 Ht 174 Wt 77

How likely is Gray to be taken in the National Draft? Pretty unlikely I think but what the hell I like him and its my mock so he is going in. He is another of my selections in my mock who were not invited to either the Combine or State Screening. Gray suffers from the curse of being not really tall enough for recruiters. It’s a shame though because I think the kid can play and like a few over recent years could go alright if he was given the chance. His best bet I think would be to get picked as a rookie like Blair last year and then prove himself from there.

He is a stocky small forward / midfielder who is very hard at the ball and competes for everything. He is not the kind who will die wondering and will get in there and mix it up. He looks like he is a smart footballer who knows the ins and outs of the game and what he needs to do in each situation to get the best for his team. He is height challenged, not hugely athletic and is not blessed with god given talents on the football field. He does work though to get the best out of himself and the win for his team. He has a very nice goals sense and at the Champs was a very regular goal kicker. He is a strong mark for his size and creates separation with bursts of pretty reasonable pace. When there is a contest in the forward line he will read the ball off hands well and if the ball goes to ground he will attack it with everything he has got. He does not have particularly great hands but they are reasonable and he does well to keep himself in with a chance of retrieving the ball if he cannot grab it first up.

Once he gets his hands on the ball he is a pretty good handball exponent and has quick hands to dispose of the ball. His kicking can be a little suspect on occasions with a bit of a high ball drop. His chipping around the ground or with shots for goal is very good though. He is a strong kid and uses that strength well both in marking contests and over the ball in the contests where his low centre of gravity makes him hard to move. He played 9 games in the SANFL and was in the best 5 times so he has no trouble stepping up to play at senior level. I think he was also pretty good at the Champs but ignored by most being stuck up forward a lot and because of his height.

Overall I think Gray is a clever player rather than a particularly talented one but he is the kind of guy that you would want to go to war with and those kind of guys make great support players on good teams. I would take him just to have him in camp and if he is given the chance I think he could make the most of it. The big problem for him is he does not fit into the model for what an AFL player is for both size and athleticism.


Pick 60 St Kilda

The Saints looked somewhat athletically challenged in the Grand Final and may look to continue their focus of the last few years in trying to inject more athletic players into their side. Brabazon is certainly an elite athlete and he would immediately inject pace to the Saints side. If his disposal is sorted he would be a great pick up for them.

Ryan Brabazon
DOB 26/12/86 Ht 183 Wt 78

Tossing up who I was going to put in here and at the end of the day I thought I would put in the guy who seems to have gone the extra mile. Brabazon is a former Sydney player who was delisted last year after playing only 3 games in 4 years. In 2010 he went back to Claremont and had a very good season. On the back of his WAFL season he was invited to State Screening but paid his way over to the Combine and did the testing there and excelled in front of the assembled recruiters, list managers and coaches (he was going to be unavailable for State Screening because he was going overseas). He tested at 2.84 in the 20m, 8.04 in the agility test and 15.1 in the beep all of those scores put him in the top few of those tested. He also tested in the top 10 in the running jump. He took the risk, showed how keen he was to get back to the AFL and then wowed with his performance. I feel some team is going to reward him even if it is only by way of a mature aged rookie position.

Brabazon subjugated his game to the team ethos at Sydney and it didn’t really pay off for him. This year he has gone back to the WAFL, got very fit and has shown what he can do when he is freed up to chase the ball. He averaged 26 possessions a game and was one of the main movers in the midfield for Claremont this year finishing well up in the Sandover Medal. A slight concern coming out of the Grand Final might well be that he still struggles a bit with a very physical game style and given how the AFL is played he may still have a problem there. He was effectively tagged out of the Grand Final but you wouldn’t think he would get that kind of attention back in the AFL at least not early.

His skills especially under pressure were always a big knock against him but he seemed to have improved these a great deal this year. It looks like he has worked hard on getting these up to AFL standard and although he may never be a particularly skillful player I don’t think his skills look like the liability they were considered to be in his time at Sydney. His inside 50s were pretty good this year averaging 3.6 per game. If he does get another chance teams will expect him to use his pace and endurance more defensively. He averaged only 2 tackles a game this year in the WAFL and that is not enough for someone with his physical gifts. He is a player who can win the ball in the contest but also gets to good positions to receive outside. He offers an outlet and finds space easily.

Overall Brabazon is a guy I would have no problem giving another chance to. He has has great athletic talents, he can certainly find the ball without any doubt and he is no longer a liability with his disposal skills.

 

[Quigley]

Okay that's it for another year. Enjoy. Word count wise its about the same as last year but adding spaces added an extra 10 pages in word so it does look longer.

As mentioned above I am on holidays and swmbo is not giving me many leave passes to get online so I might not be around much to answer questions.

I probably have gone a bit more controversial this year but with the evenness of this draft I think that there are plenty of options out there that different people can fall in love with and lets face facts no-one is ever close in their mocks anyway.

 

[Ysaye]

Okay that's it for another year. Enjoy. Word count wise its about the same as last year but adding spaces added an extra 10 pages in word so it does look longer.

As mentioned above I am on holidays and swmbo is not giving me many leave passes to get online so I might not be around much to answer questions.

I probably have gone a bit more controversial this year but with the evenness of this draft I think that there are plenty of options out there that different people can fall in love with and lets face facts no-one is ever close in their mocks anyway.

Many thanks for your insights Quigley and have a great rest of your holiday!

 

[Snoop Dog]

Always a pleasure Quigley and this year you have outdone yourself for left field which is great.

The write up on Adreoli is interesting in that u spend more time on the negs than the positives which for a guy who you have so high is interesting.

Personally am surprised a few have dropped out like Johnson, Young, Farmer, Menagola and Chalwell so would be interested in rationale.

Really liked the ODriscoll call. He is one I like but just think a couple of things means rookie. Kruse, Bell also good to and could well go but mate overall enjoyed it bc it is different......very different.

 

[r_boy]

Incredible effort hold your head high.

 

[krayfesh]

That was one hell of a read.

Very, very different and there are some choices that made me scratch my head. All brilliantly written up though.

Also I'm not complaining in the slightest that Carlton ended up with Lynch (and one pick away from Smedts )

 

[foj1]

Very interesting read Quigley,
I always look forward to your draft. I dont agree with all your rankings which is great as there are way to many sheep on BF.
One little note is Prestia is a right foot kick which I reckon you listed as left.

 

[blynd_freddie]

• My aim is not to pick players where they are likely to go in the real thing.
• My aim is to pick players based on how good they will be in 3 years for mids and 5 years for talls.

The Lions still have a pretty good top 18 but with the length of their injury list last year they were really found out.

I do acknowledging the above - but I still find it difficult to come to terms with selections #28 – Ed Curnow [broken leg] and #32 Ben Brown [leg reco], even with your planed on a 3 to 5 five year judgement disclaimer. I struggle with the thought of adding these selections to ‘the unknown recuperation’ of the Lions 2010 injured/injury prone players of the like of Clarke, McGuire, Charman, Bartlett, Drummond, Raines, Adcock, Fev, Brown and Golby.

My lack of first hand knowledge of these players and concerns from a risk management perspective are purely a personal opinion but I think I might have a decent foundation for further discussion…

Many thanks for another MUST READ mock draft post this year Quigs – and huge kudos for sticking to a ‘from another angle’ structured phantom, it certainly instigates discussion and at times counter opinion.

Enjoy your holiday, happy for you not to draft any response until your return.

 

[macca23]

Well done Quigley.

Whether you're right or wrong with your draft choices is totally irrelevant. It was one hell of an effort and a great read. Definitely the best read to date.

Many thanks.

 

[zeeCFC]

I will cry tears of joy if we get Lynch and Jacobs

 

[The Gerbil King]

An absolute disaster for Freo. Why would they get another small forward ( Dalhaus ) when they already have Ballantine and Walters. They KP players to back up the aging Pavlich, McPharlin, Grover etc.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Best draft to read. Great info.
Would be amazing if WC got Bennell and Smith.

 

[thejester]

Pick 10 Gold Coast

This is not a typical Clayton pick. He generally likes his guys skinny, athletic and preferably with very little idea of how to play the game.

Hahahaha love your acid drops Quigley.

Awesome read as always mate, glad you've backed your judgment on guys like Smedts and even Atley.

 

[The Golfing Lion]

Outstanding Quigley!!

Your writes justify your rationale behind some different picks. The draft is subjective and you obviously take the time to not be influenced by the normal.

Well done

 

[Masto]

I think you have Jordan Eades far too high. For a start I think you have his height wrong, he is listed at 174cm not 183cm. And for playing in a forward pocket, how many goals did he actually kick? Not that many. Rookie list at best.

 

[nickh32]

Your draft needs more detail, its not extensive enough

Great read and great job

 

[LIONOFZION]

I found just one glaring mistake.

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING NEAR THE INTERNET ON A TROPICAL ISLAND HOLIDAY??!!

Get a drink, a deck chair, a blonde, brunette and Redhead midfield, and run amok man

Otherwise thanks very much for the great read Quigs

 

[ajsuperstar]

great read, very interesting and unique with a lot of insight. Thought you might have been able to squeeze michie and farmer in though.

 

[bmaurizio]

Great work Quigley, if the Baggers scoop Lunch , Fasolo and Jacobs I'll be ecstatic. Huge effort.
Ciao