Preview Round 14 - Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants, Saturday 23 June 2018, The Gabba, 4.35pm

[Land of the Giants]

This week's preview is brought to you by the number 10, for our ladder position, and the letter "u", for uncertainty, because for us there's plenty of it.

How are we positioned for the second half of the season? Until the away win to Adelaide, you'd probably say we were in free fall, destined to finish well down the ladder, with all sorts of questions about the list and coaching staff needing to be sorted out.

But when we beat the Crows, and thrashed Gold Coast, we looked very much like the team of 2016. Has our mojo returned? We'll find out in the next few weeks, starting with the Lions on Saturday.

Back in Round 6 we accounted for Brisbane without looking too interested. That kind of attitude would almost certainly be fatal this time, because they've played some pretty good football against quality opposition, notably against Port away from home and some other close calls. In what mood both teams will return from the bye is unknown.

Of course, there's still a bit of uncertainty with all the injuries, with Lobb now rumoured to be out for a month, and no real clarity on Toby. Our other major outs - Deledio, Scully, Williams - won't be back until the last few weeks of the season. We've sort of learned to live without Toby, but if Lobb is out Patton will have to go back to the ruck and just get used to it.

There's not much else to say at the moment. This is one of the ten remaining games we must win if we're to have any chance of making the eight, and perhaps one of the last chances to make up a bit of percentage.

I don't think we'll lose but it's probably going to be much tougher than we think.

 

[Giant Strides]

Another great write up LotG. Realistically, GWS needs to win 8 games in the run home to make finals, so cannot afford any soft losses. A good win against the Lions would continue on from the pre-bye wins, and set us up for a hard series of games starting with Hawthorn. So, we need to be primed physically and mentally for the Brisbane game, and need to win well.

Cogs will return, Lloyd will go out with his injury. Will be keenly awaiting the injury report to see how Lobb is, and whether anyone else might be available. Some good performances in NEAFL before their bye, but Kennedy will need time before being considered. Brent Daniels may be an option up front to replace Lloyd (pressure & goal kicking), while the team is rearranged elsewhere. If Lobb doesn't come up, it will be interesting to see what we do - last game we went with Patton. I really don't like that option, so let's hope that Lobb is OK. Matty Flynn would be the other option, after a few good displays in NEAFL,. although I think he's still some time off really being ready for first grade.

Looking forward to GWS playing again - so don't let me down boys.

 

[Danny88]

Agree it will be interesting to see what the section table does if indeed Lobb is out.

We have shown we are unlikely to select Simpson so maybe merge comes back or even Flynn?

 

[fridgeman]

Don't think this is the danger game I thought a few weeks ago but still the team needs a good win with solid contributions and also for Patton to kick some goals as the following week v the Hawks will be a 50/50 game
Only really Charlie Cameron out for the Lions but with the luck they are having on the park still think it will be a 4/5 goal win to the Giants
What I would like to see this weekend
Some players need to start building form and confidence for the push for finals which is why I have TOJ in and Buntine is a chance but maybe he is next defender inline so TOJ needs to perform. I have been saying most of the season to get Cumming in so maybe one day I will be right. Patton and Tomlinson to ruck with Martin a mobile ruck I am happy to see Tomlinson go up against him and limit his influence around the ground and stoppages and he can learn to use his muscle
Taylor, Lloyd and Lobb out
TOJ, Coniglio and Cumming in

Shaw Davis Haynes
Whitfield Corr TOJ
Shiel Ward Kelly
TT Cameron Griffen
Langdon HH MDB
Patton Hopper Coniglio
Tomlinson Reid Perryman Cumming

 

[Colonial]

Just keep up the tackling pressure from the past 2 weeks and we will be on top.

If we are on top then the natural talent will show itself automatically.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Sime11]

Greene??? praying he's available to play

 

[Danny88]

Don't think this is the danger game I thought a few weeks ago but still the team needs a good win with solid contributions and also for Patton to kick some goals as the following week v the Hawks will be a 50/50 game
Only really Charlie Cameron out for the Lions but with the luck they are having on the park still think it will be a 4/5 goal win to the Giants
What I would like to see this weekend
Some players need to start building form and confidence for the push for finals which is why I have TOJ in and Buntine is a chance but maybe he is next defender inline so TOJ needs to perform. I have been saying most of the season to get Cumming in so maybe one day I will be right. Patton and Tomlinson to ruck with Martin a mobile ruck I am happy to see Tomlinson go up against him and limit his influence around the ground and stoppages and he can learn to use his muscle
Taylor, Lloyd and Lobb out
TOJ, Coniglio and Cumming in

Shaw Davis Haynes
Whitfield Corr TOJ
Shiel Ward Kelly
TT Cameron Griffen
Langdon HH MDB
Patton Hopper Coniglio
Tomlinson Reid Perryman Cumming

The ruck question is a good one. Im not sure patton and tomlinson are the answer. The midfield is their only real strength, so the stoppages and ruck work will be really important. Maybe Flynn?

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

I have been saying most of the season to get Cumming in so maybe one day I will be right.
Taylor, ... out
... Cumming in

Now, the following comes with a whole slew of caveats... lies damned lies etc., opposition, opponent, our team performance and so on. I like Cummings but....

So far, in their two games each...
Cumming 22 disposals at 76% - 3 tackles - 2 one%ers
Taylor 20 disposals at 90% - 5 tackles - 21 one%ers

Cumming leads Taylor on marks (4-2) clearances (3-1) and clangers (3-1) - they tie on contested possessions.

Cumming DE hurt by his first game @ 64%, his second was much better @ 87% but I think the telling stat is the one%ers where Taylor has him covered comfortably. It’s a work rate thing.

Right about now, I’m happy for Taylor to stay - though I expect both will be pushed out by Kenners in a couple of weeks.

 

[Colonial]

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Danny88]

Now, the following comes with a whole slew of caveats... lies damned lies etc., opposition, opponent, our team performance and so on. I like Cummings but....

So far, in their two games each...
Cumming 22 disposals at 76% - 3 tackles - 2 one%ers
Taylor 20 disposals at 90% - 5 tackles - 21 one%ers

Cumming leads Taylor on marks (4-2) clearances (3-1) and clangers (3-1) - they tie on contested possessions.

Cumming DE hurt by his first game @ 64%, his second was much better @ 87% but I think the telling stat is the one%ers where Taylor has him covered comfortably. It’s a work rate thing.

Right about now, I’m happy for Taylor to stay - though I expect both will be pushed out by Kenners in a couple of weeks.

Astounding stats re 1%ers

Massive + in my book for that!

 

[dlanod]

1%ers include spoils, so he's got an advantage there given his role.

 

[fridgeman]

Now, the following comes with a whole slew of caveats... lies damned lies etc., opposition, opponent, our team performance and so on. I like Cummings but....

So far, in their two games each...
Cumming 22 disposals at 76% - 3 tackles - 2 one%ers
Taylor 20 disposals at 90% - 5 tackles - 21 one%ers

Cumming leads Taylor on marks (4-2) clearances (3-1) and clangers (3-1) - they tie on contested possessions.

Cumming DE hurt by his first game @ 64%, his second was much better @ 87% but I think the telling stat is the one%ers where Taylor has him covered comfortably. It’s a work rate thing.

Right about now, I’m happy for Taylor to stay - though I expect both will be pushed out by Kenners in a couple of weeks.

Agree with you on the above and Taylor does look like a good prospect atm and hopefully the coaches have told Cumming what he needs to work on in the NEAFL just like they do with everyone and the 2 games for Cumming were the Eagles and Kangaroos 2 losses and for Taylor the Crows and Suns so I think it is also who they were matched up on the day
I see Cumming as being a 22-25 position list player and Taylor a 30 position list player next year so the more games this year the better
That could change but looking at the depth in positions on the list

 

[dlanod]

With Lobb out, I reckon I'm in like (Matt) Flynn.

 

[Danny88]

With Lobb out, I reckon I'm in like (Matt) Flynn.

Would be good to see him I agree

He offers something up front. Will prob get beaten at grow in where he needs to wrestle but is in that mobile mould

 

[dlanod]

Martin would be a good match-up for him. While Martin is an ok tap ruckman, he's not going to physically monster Flynn like a Sandi, Gawn or Witts might.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

With Lobb out, I reckon I'm in like (Matt) Flynn.

 

[Giant Strides]

Well, have to say I'm taking media output with a grain of salt from now on!

I see 4 options for the Lions game, based on past practice:

1. Patton/Tommo as ruck - as we did last game vs Lions. Concedes hitouts to Stef Martin, but hopefully our midfield can take advantage. The benefit would be bringing Cogs in for Lobb, and someone (e.g. Brent Daniels) for Lloyd, so being very mobile and reducing our overly tall backline. However, we looked lethargic last game, but was that a symptom of the ruck disadvantage or something quite separate?
2. Simpson replaces Lobb. He didn't get the call last time on the grounds that Martin is pretty mobile and Dawson isn't. Nothing much has changed there, so I'd be pessimistic if I was Dawson.
3. Flynn to debut. Closest like-for-like replacement for Lobb - but is he ready? Probably the best game of the upcoming month to throw him in for a try?
4. Lachie Keeffe. My least-liked choice - didn't think that he was mobile enough to make his selection beneficial when he played earlier this year - a bit of a nothing option really. Hopefully we don't reprise that experiment.

Overall, I'd like to see Flynn get his chance. I'm not really sure he's ready, but it's probably the best chance of giving him a go when he's least likely to be damaged if he doesn't go well - and our best chance of covering for him. Second choice (by far) would be Tommo/Patton (and more Tommo than Patton) to concede the hitout but play for the clearance.

I'd also like to see Brent Daniels debut for Lloyd and Cogs to return in place of Perryman if Flynn gets the nod (reshuffling MdB to the backline). [I would like to see ToJ or Perryman get another chance in the backline, but just don't think there's any chance of that many changes occurring.]

 

[fridgeman]

This is the best game to debut Flynn this year as the mids should be able to win the clearances but I am worried about Martin around the ground which is why I think Tomlinson is a better matchup but if Flynn does debut it would be great for him and having another Academy player debut this year
I think Simpson playing would be a step in the wrong direction for the club unless it was a game v Sandilands
I am 50/50 on Taylor staying in as he has done well but just if the backline has enough offence with him in or they would be better with TOJ but we can see on friday

 

[Determinant]

This is the best game to debut Flynn this year as the mids should be able to win the clearances but I am worried about Martin around the ground which is why I think Tomlinson is a better matchup but if Flynn does debut it would be great for him and having another Academy player debut this year
I think Simpson playing would be a step in the wrong direction for the club unless it was a game v Sandilands
I am 50/50 on Taylor staying in as he has done well but just if the backline has enough offence with him in or they would be better with TOJ but we can see on friday

Play Flynn as ruck and Tomilinson on Martin outside stoppages.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

This is the best game to debut Flynn this year as the mids should be able to win the clearances but I am worried about Martin around the ground which is why I think Tomlinson is a better matchup but if Flynn does debut it would be great for him and having another Academy player debut this year
I think Simpson playing would be a step in the wrong direction for the club unless it was a game v Sandilands
I am 50/50 on Taylor staying in as he has done well but just if the backline has enough offence with him in or they would be better with TOJ but we can see on friday

I think the ruck choice is critical. Leon is keeping the options open in his interview, but did indicate he expects Rory back at the end of the year.
We still have to focus on making finals and going as deep as we can.

My worry is that Rory will have very little time to find form and fitness,l before September, given he was still building before this injury. He's not going to be fit enough to offer his best is year as I see it, sadly. I can see him playing primarily a a contested mark/Forward when he does come back.

To me that means we look for a stable ruck as first preference, who can have some continuity with the mids even this far out.

Dawson the obvious choice but it seems the selection committee dont want to play him, presumably lack of mobility. Maybe that changes but if not then we say thanks for coming and goodbye at the end of the year as I see it. All he's contributing is taking the ruck opportunities in the NEAFL side away from Flynn and others who need the experience.

I get playing Flynn and I've seen some NEAFL at Spotless recently and liked what I saw. The problem as I see it is he's 20. Don't know of any 20 y/o who is ready for the physical challenge and weekly grind of constant collisions as the no 1 ruck. Doesn't mean he shouldn't get a few games but I cant see him offering continuity.

I dont like Patton as main ruck. Relieving ruck/forward is his role I think. If he plays as lead ruck our forward line suffers without him spending time there to me.

I'm not sure about Tommo and possibly he's a dark horse.

I dont really see a great option, and worry we'll continue the bits and pieces approach to the rucks from necessity, and I dont think that's close to ideal.

If Leon has a card up his sleeve now would be a good time to play it I think.

 

[Gigantic]

I just hope we don't go with Keefe again. That didn't work last time.

 

[fridgeman]

I think the ruck choice is critical. Leon is keeping the options open in his interview, but did indicate he expects Rory back at the end of the year.
We still have to focus on making finals and going as deep as we can.

My worry is that Rory will have very little time to find form and fitness,l before September, given he was still building before this injury. He's not going to be fit enough to offer his best is year as I see it, sadly. I can see him playing primarily a a contested mark/Forward when he does come back.

To me that means we look for a stable ruck as first preference, who can have some continuity with the mids even this far out.

Dawson the obvious choice but it seems the selection committee dont want to play him, presumably lack of mobility. Maybe that changes but if not then we say thanks for coming and goodbye at the end of the year as I see it. All he's contributing is taking the ruck opportunities in the NEAFL side away from Flynn and others who need the experience.

I get playing Flynn and I've seen some NEAFL at Spotless recently and liked what I saw. The problem as I see it is he's 20. Don't know of any 20 y/o who is ready for the physical challenge and weekly grind of constant collisions as the no 1 ruck. Doesn't mean he shouldn't get a few games but I cant see him offering continuity.

I dont like Patton as main ruck. Relieving ruck/forward is his role I think. If he plays as lead ruck our forward line suffers without him spending time there to me.

I'm not sure about Tommo and possibly he's a dark horse.

I dont really see a great option, and worry we'll continue the bits and pieces approach to the rucks from necessity, and I dont think that's close to ideal.

If Leon has a card up his sleeve now would be a good time to play it I think.

Rotate the 3 through the game with Patton and Flynn rotating in the forward line and Tomlinson around the ground and with Ward/Hopper/Coniglio/Shiel/Kelly/Griffen around the stoppages we should dominate that part of the ground
Flynn has had 3 preseasons and has been injury free so confident he can get through 30/40% game time in the ruck and 30/40% in the forward line

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Rotate the 3 through the game with Patton and Flynn rotating in the forward line and Tomlinson around the ground and with Ward/Hopper/Coniglio/Shiel/Kelly/Griffen around the stoppages we should dominate that part of the ground
Flynn has had 3 preseasons and has been injury free so confident he can get through 30/40% game time in the ruck and 30/40% in the forward line

Yuck
I still much prefer continuity, maybe it's the best option. It's not a good one to me. Flynn's lack of injury doesn't alter the fact he's 20. Ruck is a unique position in regard to the constant punishment. I'd hate to see him damaged by being thrown in the deep end too soon. I'm sure that's a consideration.
Can you think of a 20 y/o who has been a regular ruck in the modern game? I've tried and am struggling.

 

[Determinant]

Yuck
I still much prefer continuity, maybe it's the best option. It's not a good one to me. Flynn's lack of injury doesn't alter the fact he's 20. Ruck is a unique position in regard to the constant punishment. I'd hate to see him damaged by being thrown in the deep end too soon. I'm sure that's a consideration.
Can you think of a 20 y/o who has been a regular ruck in the modern game? I've tried and am struggling.

Grundy?

 

[Giant Strides]

Can you think of a 20 y/o who has been a regular ruck in the modern game? I've tried and am struggling.

Sean Darcy played a block of games for Freo last year (8 of 9, with one off, from round 14 to 22) and did pretty well. He's about a year younger (& one less year in the system) than Matty Flynn. Not a whole year - but similar to what we might ask Flynn to do. It could be a case of give him a chance and see how he goes. Rotating him around with Tommo & Patton chopping him out reduces the wear & tear on him in his first game. As you say, not necessarily a great option, but we seem to be short of options if the match committee don't like what Dawson brings.