Preview Round 14 - Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants, Saturday 23 June 2018, The Gabba, 4.35pm

[fridgeman]

Yuck
I still much prefer continuity, maybe it's the best option. It's not a good one to me. Flynn's lack of injury doesn't alter the fact he's 20. Ruck is a unique position in regard to the constant punishment. I'd hate to see him damaged by being thrown in the deep end too soon. I'm sure that's a consideration.
Can you think of a 20 y/o who has been a regular ruck in the modern game? I've tried and am struggling.

I agree that the position is one of constant punishment and only a hypothetical but it is not a regular ruck it is part time with the support of Patton and Tomlinson so maybe 30/40% of ruck contests and with the 6 i listed around the stoppages I am sure it will be a part of the game the club wins. If he doesn't play this year where realistically we will need to play well to make finals he will play early next year where we will have what I think could be a better chance to win the flag (Why i think it is important to debut players this year and get games into Perryman and Cumming)
Stats can prove anything and don't tell the whole story and apart from English these stats were all in a time of third man up
Grundy is a special case as he is by far a stand out ruck but in his second year his stats 15 games and average hitouts of 18 them
English second year has played 7 games and averaging 14 hitouts and he is an august birthday and still super light
Nankervis played 7 games in his third year 14 hitouts

Listed stats for Flynn
200 cms 101 kgs
Listed stats for Martin
199 cms 100 kgs

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Grundy?

An outlier but yeah I missed him.

 

[Determinant]

2 years ago Mummy was extoling the virtues of Flynn, 6 months ago he did the same to me personally with Rory in concert, potential outlier for mine

 

[fridgeman]

All hypotheticals anyway and we can wait to see on Thursday which way the coaches go
Will Simpson be run off the park by the opposition ruck?
Will Flynn injure himself/be a negative effect around the stoppages?
For the following rounds
v McEvoy/Ceglar
v Natinui/Lycett
v Nankervis
v Ryder/Westhoff
v Hickey or Longer

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I agree that the position is one of constant punishment and only a hypothetical but it is not a regular ruck it is part time with the support of Patton and Tomlinson so maybe 30/40% of ruck contests and with the 6 i listed around the stoppages I am sure it will be a part of the game the club wins. If he doesn't play this year where realistically we will need to play well to make finals he will play early next year where we will have what I think could be a better chance to win the flag (Why i think it is important to debut players this year and get games into Perryman and Cumming)
Stats can prove anything and don't tell the whole story and apart from English these stats were all in a time of third man up
Grundy is a special case as he is by far a stand out ruck but in his second year his stats 15 games and average hitouts of 18 them
English second year has played 7 games and averaging 14 hitouts and he is an august birthday and still super light
Nankervis played 7 games in his third year 14 hitouts

Listed stats for Flynn
200 cms 101 kgs
Listed stats for Martin
199 cms 100 kgs

I guess my view is more one of worry about this year. We have some tough games against the Eagles, Swans, Tigers, Hawks and Demons to come.

The midfield is the one we played against North and the Bombers ( minus Kelly for North and fresh for the Bombers) and they got done at critical times. Hard to tell how much was the team simply lifting, but I think Rory improving every week definitely helped in the last two wins.

I think Flynn should probably play against the Lions, but I think Ruck is a specialist role and continuity is important. It's kinda moot though as I said I dont see an option that provides continuity.

I think English proves my point really. I liked his game in round 1 , he's a great prospect in my view. It was always unlikely he couldn't ruck the season though.

Nankervis is older and played minimal games with the Swans.

 

[fridgeman]

I guess my view is more one of worry about this year. We have some tough games against the Eagles, Swans, Tigers, Hawks and Demons to come.

The midfield is the one we played against North and the Bombers ( minus Kelly for North and fresh for the Bombers) and they got done at critical times. Hard to tell how much was the team simply lifting, but I think Rory improving every week definitely helped in the last two wins.

I think Flynn should probably play against the Lions, but I think Ruck is a specialist role and continuity is important. It's kinda moot though as I said I dont see an option that provides continuity.

I think English proves my point really. I liked his game in round 1 , he's a great prospect in my view. It was always unlikely he couldn't ruck the season though.

Nankervis is older and played minimal games with the Swans.

No chance of continuity in the position with the way the rucks are at the club and I would rather Flynn had another year to add strength and ruck full games in the NEAFL but this will be a test and learning experience for him and having the 6 mids I listed around the stoppages will be good for him so we can see if he is selected but I am not a fan of Simpson playing as Martin could run him off the park

 

[dlanod]

Grundy?

It wasn't that unusual when rucks were being taken with early picks. In addition to Grundy, guys like Kreuzer, Renouf, Goldstein, Gorringe and NN all played substantial ruck minutes while 20 or younger. Others like Leuenberger and Lobbe were primary rucks at a similarly young age (21-22).

Flynn is also closer to his 21st than his 20th, not that it matters heaps.

 

[Simmofreo]

Another great write up LotG. Realistically, GWS needs to win 8 games in the run home to make finals, so cannot afford any soft losses. A good win against the Lions would continue on from the pre-bye wins, and set us up for a hard series of games starting with Hawthorn. So, we need to be primed physically and mentally for the Brisbane game, and need to win well.

Cogs will return, Lloyd will go out with his injury. Will be keenly awaiting the injury report to see how Lobb is, and whether anyone else might be available. Some good performances in NEAFL before their bye, but Kennedy will need time before being considered. Brent Daniels may be an option up front to replace Lloyd (pressure & goal kicking), while the team is rearranged elsewhere. If Lobb doesn't come up, it will be interesting to see what we do - last game we went with Patton. I really don't like that option, so let's hope that Lobb is OK. Matty Flynn would be the other option, after a few good displays in NEAFL,. although I think he's still some time off really being ready for first grade.

Looking forward to GWS playing again - so don't let me down boys.

Wow that got home when you said about the 8 wins needed.

I had a look at the fixture and I just can't find 8 wins to be honest.

Of course it's possible, but we need those wins where we say "gee I honestly didn't think they would win that one"

We have some big opponents to knock off of we are to make it. Sydney, hawthorn, Richmond, port at home, WC in Perth, a currently rampaging Melbourne

The good news about this is that if we do, the flag is still a chance

Let's see what these boys are made of

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[dlanod]

Since the league went to 18 teams the best record ever to miss finals is 12-10. I'd argue six wins would almost definitely put us into finals as a result (record of 12-1-9), and seven wins will. The draw is basically as good as a win at the moment, when we're looking at the finals cutoff.

Funnily enough, despite our apparently horror form, the Essendon game is the only loss we have to a team outside the top 8.

However despite that caveat because of our draw we will still need to win at least two and probably three or more games against teams above us on the ladder, with only four games against those below us and one of those four being Adelaide.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Since the league went to 18 teams the best record ever to miss finals is 12-10. I'd argue six wins would almost definitely put us into finals as a result (record of 12-1-9), and seven wins will. The draw is basically as good as a win at the moment, when we're looking at the finals cutoff.

Funnily enough, despite our apparently horror form, the Essendon game is the only loss we have to a team outside the top 8.

However despite that caveat because of our draw we will still need to win at least two and probably three or more games against teams above us on the ladder, with only four games against those below us and one of those four being Adelaide.

Was about to say that. In the Squiggle and analytics thread a lot of people are running predictors that have teams missing on thirteen wins. I think when modelling conflicts with real world data the modelling probably needs adjusting rather than reality.

Possibly to do with the anomaly that models tend to predict favourites more often they actually win.

 

[sydney_gws]

I just hope we play one of flynn or simpson i think both are ok , if are not playing well they can just spend a bit more time on the bench.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Well the big lug gets a gig after all. Just hope he cements a spot and gives some continuity now. TOJ great news as well.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

In: Stephen Coniglio, Dawson Simpson, Jeremy Finlayson



happy with that.

 

[Giant Pete]

That has to be the tallest backline in the comp

 

[Colonial]

Brisbane Lions v GIANTS
Saturday June 23 at 4:35pm
The Gabba
FB: Aidan Corr, Sam Taylor, Adam Tomlinson
HB: Nick Haynes, Phil Davis, Heath Shaw
C: Ryan Griffen, Callan Ward, Sam Reid
HF: Matt de Boer, Jeremy Cameron, Stephen Coniglio
FF: Jacob Hopper, Jon Patton, Dylan Shiel
RR: Dawson Simpson, Tim Taranto, Josh Kelly
Interchange: Lachie Whitfield, Zac Langdon, Harry Himmelberg, Jeremy Finlayson
In: Stephen Coniglio, Dawson Simpson, Jeremy Finlayson
Out: Rory Lobb (back), Daniel Lloyd (knee), Harry Perryman (omitted)
Emergencies: Aiden Bonar, Brent Daniels, Lachie Keeffe, Harry Perryman


Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[Giant Blue]

Interesting that Buntine is not named as an emergency. I would have thought he would be closer to a recall. I assume they want him to have another run in the twos. But doesn’t the NEAFL have a bye this week?
In conclusion I’m confused

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Interesting that Buntine is not named as an emergency. I would have thought he would be closer to a recall. I assume they want him to have another run in the twos. But doesn’t the NEAFL have a bye this week?
In conclusion I’m confused

The NEAFL side matched the AFL bye. I assume that's good for the list training and timing of breaks. They are playing the Lions at the Gabba on Saturday.
I kinda share your surprise about Bunts but he would be very green still, maybe just better to schedule him a game with no uncertainty at this stage?
It seems he always takes while to come back through the two's. He always has in time though, so I'm not too worried yet.

 

[Raymann]

TOJ very lucky to get a game. I thought he really lacked intensity in the Neafl and is believing he is the best kicker in the AFL.
Hope I’m wrong but should not be gifting games on reputation but rather on effort. Swans have led the way with this culture

 

[Determinant]

TOJ very lucky to get a game. I thought he really lacked intensity in the Neafl and is believing he is the best kicker in the AFL.
Hope I’m wrong but should not be gifting games on reputation but rather on effort. Swans have led the way with this culture

I have similar concerns, I would have preferred Daniels took his place on the bench or Perryman was given another start.
Would love to be proved wrong.

 

[fridgeman]

Not a big fan of some of the selections but just a fan and we don't have the amount of info that the match committee do but a super tall team and I am still confident of a win but it will be a close contest unless Cameron gets off the chain but I think the Lions have a very good defence so he will need to play very well. The midfield is where the club will win it and although talented the Lions mids are a bit inexperienced and not as deep
Simpson needs to run his lungs out because Martin will really try and work him over so the Giants might try and make it a in close contest, I thought they would have gone with Flynn but I understand the selection of Simpson
Perryman unlucky I think as he had one of his better games v the Suns but hopefully he can have some good form in the NEAFL and get back in as I can see he needs to get more involved in the game but these are the type of games where he won't be easily pushed of the ball
That is one of the match ups I am looking forward too and also seeing the number of young Lions running around super talented young group and I think in 2020 they will really show what they are capable of

 

[Danny88]

Not a big fan of some of the selections but just a fan and we don't have the amount of info that the match committee do but a super tall team and I am still confident of a win but it will be a close contest unless Cameron gets off the chain but I think the Lions have a very good defence so he will need to play very well. The midfield is where the club will win it and although talented the Lions mids are a bit inexperienced and not as deep
Simpson needs to run his lungs out because Martin will really try and work him over so the Giants might try and make it a in close contest, I thought they would have gone with Flynn but I understand the selection of Simpson
Perryman unlucky I think as he had one of his better games v the Suns but hopefully he can have some good form in the NEAFL and get back in as I can see he needs to get more involved in the game but these are the type of games where he won't be easily pushed of the ball
That is one of the match ups I am looking forward too and also seeing the number of young Lions running around super talented young group and I think in 2020 they will really show what they are capable of

I think we might see someone like Tomlinson run with Martin in general play and Simpson position himself long up the line as a bailout kick. That allows us to negate martins superior running ability but will still give us a contest down the line and at stoppages