Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

[poshman]

Which would suggest on balance that “differently” doesn’t mean favourably?

Similar to free kicks across a game, on balance, one not being any more influential on the outcome of a game than another?

Using the example of Cotteral’s goal and a mark that was paid that most likely shouldn’t have been as it was touched? But is this cancelled out by the out of bounds free kick that wasn’t paid and so on?

Some free kicks are more influential than others, everyone knows that.

Would you rather get a free you shouldn't have 20m out straight in front or one on the wing? How you answer this will tell me a lot about your honesty on this matter.

Is Cripps on balance umpired favourably, against non vic teams and some of the lesser vic teams, yes. But that is only my opinion.

 

[blueboy25]

I hope Freo would be having a word to the big wigs at the West Australian.
Some of the carry on over the last few days has been ridiculous including a "hero" poster of Jordan Clark

6

Jordan Clark

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.5

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.2

3star

K

10.4

4star

HB

1.8

2star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

in today's paper.

As a proud West Australian its very sad to see what our local paper has become....the Harley Reid stalk fest all summer and now this.

 

[Jimthegreat]

Some free kicks are more influential than others, everyone knows that.

Would you rather get a free you shouldn't have 20m out straight in front or one on the wing? How you answer this will tell me a lot about your honesty on this matter.

Is Cripps on balance umpired favourably, against non vic teams and some of the lesser vic teams, yes. But that is only my opinion.

Like some of the 6 Freo got in from of goal. Some there a couple stunk.

 

[Bostonian]

It's obvious the two clubs need to merge and then win 5 flags in a row with the merged list.

 

[Jimthegreat]

Carlton are actually flag contenders, can't believe I get to say that after all these years, and Freo will play finals IMO at least. Freo won a final in 2022, had a stinker last year, which happens, even to sides thay won a flag the next year, but look decent this year. Both are have come on since the thread started way back.

 

[poshman]

Like some of the 6 Freo got in from of goal. Some there a couple stunk.

Yes. And the question was are some free kicks more influential than others.

I take it you agree that a free kick or non free kick given in front of goal is more impactful than one on the wing.

 

[poshman]

Carlton are actually flag contenders, can't believe I get to say that after all these years, and Freo will play finals IMO at least. Freo won a final in 2022, had a stinker last year, which happens, even to sides thay won a flag the next year, but look decent this year. Both are have come on since the thread started way back.

Yes, blues fans should be pumped about the year and the possibilities. Great spine. Tough midfield. Voss is coaching well. A heap to be stoked with.

We are young and should play finals. As the third or fourth youngest team that’s a big win. Our team will be a lot stronger in 25,26 than this season. 3 first rounders (likely late) won’t hurt at the end of the year either.

 

[Taper]

I hope Freo would be having a word to the big wigs at the West Australian.
Some of the carry on over the last few days has been ridiculous including a "hero" poster of Jordan Clark in today's paper.

As a proud West Australian its very sad to see what our local paper has become....the Harley Reid stalk fest all summer and now this.

Perth has become more isolated in recent years thanks to the cost of living crisis making it very expensive to travel to and from.
We're seeing these sorts of things in the local newspaper as a result.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Congratulations to Carlton for n the win against Freo yesterday. I was fairly underwhelmed by their midfield. It is not good enough to win a premiership IMO (that’s even with Walsh coming back in).
They need to recruit a gun mid or 2 this off-season to really have a crack.

Freo are progressing pretty well but are one really good small forward short (now that Walters is slowing down).

With Walsh our midfield has stood up to every midfield we have played since our turn in form.
It’s one paced which might catch us out but other sides have seemed to still have success with similar setups.

 

[gungho]

With Walsh our midfield has stood up to every midfield we have played since our turn in form.
It’s one paced which might catch us out but other sides have seemed to still have success with similar setups.

You’re dreaming. Your midfield (even with Walsh) is a step below freo. And freo are a step below GWS, Port, and Sydney (when they are fit).

 

[Jeremias]

Both will be pleased with their progress and fans of both clubs should be optimistic.

Putting aside the contentious ending, Fremantle pushed the Blues all the way on Saturday. Probably should have won but failed to execute late when it matters most.

Freo's game style will ensure they're in the contest more often than not, but I have concerns that they don't have the quality to execute again and again and again.

Not a criticism per se, but a side that knows its limitations and plays within them.

To me that screams a team likely to make finals but without the weapons to really challenge at the pointy end.

Think Carlton has the cattle and the game styles to push deeper into September, but it's April and a lot can happen.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You’re dreaming. Your midfield (even with Walsh) is a step below freo. And freo are a step below GWS, Port, and Sydney (when they are fit).

According to actual analysis...

STRENGTHS: It's no secret that the Blues are one of the best stoppage teams in the AFL and the gold standard for contested ball-winning. Over 2023 they have won the contested possession count by 10.1 a game (No.1) and lead the League groundball gets differential (+5.5 a game). Michael Voss's team has also excelled in turning clearances into scores, ranking No.1 for points from clearance differential (+11.8). Defensively, the Blues have conceded just 73.8 points a game (No.4) and conceded a score from just 40.6 per cent of opposition entries (No.3)

Yep... Sounds like we really stink A 4 week slump to start the year isn't indicative of a teams ability. They have just struggled to get going to start the season.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You’re dreaming. Your midfield (even with Walsh) is a step below freo. And freo are a step below GWS, Port, and Sydney (when they are fit).

Take the best player out of any sides midfield and you won’t rate them as highly. I think you have recency bias.

 

[gungho]

According to actual analysis...

STRENGTHS: It's no secret that the Blues are one of the best stoppage teams in the AFL and the gold standard for contested ball-winning. Over 2023 they have won the contested possession count by 10.1 a game (No.1) and lead the League groundball gets differential (+5.5 a game). Michael Voss's team has also excelled in turning clearances into scores, ranking No.1 for points from clearance differential (+11.8). Defensively, the Blues have conceded just 73.8 points a game (No.4) and conceded a score from just 40.6 per cent of opposition entries (No.3)

Yep... Sounds like we really stink A 4 week slump to start the year isn't indicative of a teams ability. They have just struggled to get going to start the season.

According to actual analysis...

STRENGTHS: It's no secret that the Blues are one of the best stoppage teams in the AFL and the gold standard for contested ball-winning. Over 2023 they have won the contested possession count by 10.1 a game (No.1) and lead the League groundball gets differential (+5.5 a game). Michael Voss's team has also excelled in turning clearances into scores, ranking No.1 for points from clearance differential (+11.8). Defensively, the Blues have conceded just 73.8 points a game (No.4) and conceded a score from just 40.6 per cent of opposition entries (No.3)

Yep... Sounds like we really stink A 4 week slump to start the year isn't indicative of a teams ability. They have just struggled to get going to start the season.

Who cares about 2023. You lost the clearances 44-27 vs freo. That is a smashing. Walsh will help no doubt, but not sure he will fix everything.
Your midfield is also fairly one paced.
Well done being 4 and 0 but you aren’t winning a premiership with the midfield depth you have now IMO.

 

[gungho]

Take the best player out of any sides midfield and you won’t rate them as highly. I think you have recency bias.

You lost the clearances 43-27 against Freo, that’s with your bigger bodied guys in there. I am sure Walsh will help but not that much.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Who cares about 2023. You lost the clearances 44-27 vs freo. That is a smashing. Walsh will help no doubt, but not sure he will fix everything.
Your midfield is also fairly one paced.
Well done being 4 and 0 but you aren’t winning a premiership with the midfield depth you have now IMO.

Lmao yet we still won contested possessions... And the game.

Think we'll be just fine once we have Walsh, Kennedy and Pittonet back into our starting midfield, given they've been more than adequate the last few years against some of the best midfields in the comp.

They also absolutely demolished yours last season with Lewis Young and Jack Silvagni rucking against Darcy and Jackson that game

 

[Jeremias]

Let’s not overstate the clearance ‘issue’.

It’s something to be wary of but hardly a concern.

It might have been a concern had Carlton started the year slowly, but they’re 4-0.

They’re literally finding different ways to win without relying on the main strength that saw them make a prelim in 2023.

That’s a massive positive rather than the opposite as some are trying to push.

Always amusing how some fans become so fixated on a particular stat, they lose all perspective.

They haven’t lost the ability to win a clearance over the course of a few months.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Let’s not overstate the clearance ‘issue’.

It’s something to be wary of but hardly a concern.

It might have been a concern had Carlton started the year slowly, but they’re 4-0.

They’re literally finding different ways to win without relying on the main strength that saw them make a prelim in 2023.

That’s a massive positive rather than the opposite as some are trying to push.

Always amusing how some fans become so fixated on a particular stat, they lose all perspective.

They haven’t lost the ability to win a clearance over the course of a few months.

Couldn't have said it any better.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Some free kicks are more influential than others, everyone knows that.

Would you rather get a free you shouldn't have 20m out straight in front or one on the wing? How you answer this will tell me a lot about your honesty on this matter.

Is Cripps on balance umpired favourably, against non vic teams and some of the lesser vic teams, yes. But that is only my opinion.

Disagree, it’s obvious that all free kicks influence a game in some way, they are part of the total of the game.

I believe that the time plays more, or as much of a factor, on the influence in a game than the actual free kick.

More when they are paid. That’s the point I am making.

If the scenario that occurred at the end of the game happened at the end of the first quarter there wouldn’t have been anywhere near the publicity or angst that this particular incident has caused.

And that’s simply because the timing of when it occurred had a bigger influence on the outcome. In simply terms, there wasn’t enough time left for Fremantle to get back in front.

The free kick itself had as much influence on the game as any free kick paid or not paid during the period of the game.

The example I used was what appeared to be an out on the full free kick that wasn’t paid (I believe in the third quarter) near Carlton’s goals. Had the resultant free kick been paid it would’ve created an opportunity for Carlton to score a goal. If the goal was kicked, and using it in isolation as your trying to do with the Cottrell mark, then the mark paid to Cotrell wouldn’t have been as significant a factor as to who wins the game as Carlton would have already been in the lead.

You can’t isolate one from another. The same scenario can be played out for any free kick that was, or was not, paid during the match.

As for position of where the free kick is paid, we’ll you can make an argument that this has the potential to be more significant, yes.

But had the dissent call not been made and the ball been taken back to the middle, another wrong call anywhere on the ground has the potential to have the same impact regardless of where it was paid.

The example being, Brayshaw breaks from the middle and kicks the ball into Fremantle’s forward 50. Cripps touches the ball off Brayshaw’s boot and calls touched, the umpire doesn’t see the touched ball and Cottrell marks the Brayshaw kick and this allows him to run the clock down for Carlton to win the game. Same impact, different scenario, same result, different part of the field.

Is one more significant than the other?

 

[poshman]

Disagree, it’s obvious that all free kicks influence a game in some way, they are part of the total of the game.

I believe that the time plays more, or as much of a factor, on the influence in a game than the actual free kick.

More when they are paid. That’s the point I am making.

If the scenario that occurred at the end of the game happened at the end of the first quarter there wouldn’t have been anywhere near the publicity or angst that this particular incident has caused.

And that’s simply because the timing of when it occurred had a bigger influence on the outcome. In simply terms, there wasn’t enough time left for Fremantle to get back in front.

The free kick itself had as much influence on the game as any free kick paid or not paid during the period of the game.

The example I used was what appeared to be an out on the full free kick that wasn’t paid (I believe in the third quarter) near Carlton’s goals. Had the resultant free kick been paid it would’ve created an opportunity for Carlton to score a goal. If the goal was kicked, and using it in isolation as your trying to do with the Cottrell mark, then the mark paid to Cotrell wouldn’t have been as significant a factor as to who wins the game as Carlton would have already been in the lead.

You can’t isolate one from another. The same scenario can be played out for any free kick that was, or was not, paid during the match.

As for position of where the free kick is paid, we’ll you can make an argument that this has the potential to be more significant, yes.

But had the dissent call not been made and the ball been taken back to the middle, another wrong call anywhere on the ground has the potential to have the same impact regardless of where it was paid.

The example being, Brayshaw breaks from the middle and kicks the ball into Fremantle’s forward 50. Cripps touches the ball off Brayshaw’s boot and calls touched, the umpire doesn’t see the touched ball and Cottrell marks the Brayshaw kick and this allows him to run the clock down for Carlton to win the game. Same impact, different scenario, same result, different part of the field.

Is one more significant than the other?

Let's see if you can take your Carlton coloured glasses off here. With one simple question:

A) Would you rather Freo were paid a free kick 20m out directly in front of goals
B) On the Wing.

This is a simple A or B as the answer is clear to everyone.

 

[cactuscall]

I hope Freo would be having a word to the big wigs at the West Australian.
Some of the carry on over the last few days has been ridiculous including a "hero" poster of Jordan Clark in today's paper.

I hope they don't say a word, ignore it. Just like the vast majority should be doing. It's a media beat up, yesterdays news and the Worst Australian is just an irrelevant pile of trash.

 

[Worm4]

Lmao yet we still won contested possessions... And the game.

Think we'll be just fine once we have Walsh, Kennedy and Pittonet back into our starting midfield, given they've been more than adequate the last few years against some of the best midfields in the comp.

They also absolutely demolished yours last season with Lewis Young and Jack Silvagni rucking against Darcy and Jackson that game

Collingwood got smashed in clearances all of last year and it didn't seem to affect them at all in winning games

 

[gungho]

Lmao yet we still won contested possessions... And the game.

Think we'll be just fine once we have Walsh, Kennedy and Pittonet back into our starting midfield, given they've been more than adequate the last few years against some of the best midfields in the comp.

They also absolutely demolished yours last season with Lewis Young and Jack Silvagni rucking against Darcy and Jackson that game

I am really confused why you keep referring to last season. The body of evidence on your midfield is this season. It’s a good midfield but not good enough against the best teams in the competition at the moment. I mean it’s not even a debate really.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Let's see if you can take your Carlton coloured glasses off here. With one simple question:

A) Would you rather Freo were paid a free kick 20m out directly in front of goals
B) On the Wing.

This is a simple A or B as the answer is clear to everyone.

It’s probably not the right thread so I’ll leave it at this.

I’m trying to be as unbiased as possible.

If the results are reversed and Carlton were to lose my points still stand re; free kicks and outcome - it’s more the when than the where. A free kick can be as impactful on the game no matter where it is paid.

You’re watching the wrong game if you think it can be simplified to A or B

There’s far too much complexity & nuance to dumb it down to that level.
Hope that answers your question.

In the simplest of terms, would I be pissed if it was Carlton loosing the match in the same circumstances?

Most definitely.

But in 120 minutes of football to say that a singular 30 seconds, regardless of what occurred, played a more significant outcome in determining the result of the game than the remaining balance is just incorrect.

You have a right to feel aggrieved, your team lost. What occurred in the last minute of the game wasn’t the singular determiner of why it did.

 

[blinkd]

It's obvious the two clubs need to merge and then win 5 flags in a row with the merged list.

B: Weitering Pearce McGovern
HB: Saad Ryan Clark
C: Brayshaw Cripps Acres
HF: Walters Treacy Freddy
F: McKay Amiss Curnow
FOL: LJ Serong Cerra
IC: Young Newman Emmet Sharp

Maybe a bit too tall in the fwd line