Round 20…already?! Where has this season gone?

Punters, be wary of teams resting players over these last few weeks of the home and away season. Key players out can make a massive difference when it comes to winning margins. Additionally, coaches don’t care about your disposals or goals bet either. If a team is way ahead in the final quarter, be prepared for a star player to be pulled and benched for the remainder of the game. This is probably the last safe week for disposals and goals bets though. Right now, percentage still matters, and those teams vying for the best possible position in the top eight will be out to get the four points and boost their numbers across the board.

Richmond vs. Collingwood (MCG)

After an insipid performance against GWS in Canberra, Richmond has been under the media spotlight and on the ropes all week. Collingwood, on the other hand, are coming off a confidence-boosting win over the Eagles, and youngster, Darcy Moore got the Rising Star nod for Round 19 (as predicted in our Oh Yes! Oh No! on Monday morning), and after only a quarter and a half of footy played due to a hamstring injury, he clearly did more than enough in less than half a game to get the nomination. Impressive! He’s shown a lot this year. Various injuries have been the only roadblock in not getting the honour earlier than Round 19. Anyway, back to this week’s game. Richmond don’t have to win this one, and they probably won’t, but they have to at least stay competitive. A repeat performance that is anywhere near last week’s three-goal disaster, and Damien Hardwick’s head will be the first to roll. He’s hanging by a very thin thread at the moment. Several Richmond Assistant Coaches have already been told they don’t have a job next year. Richmond fans are frustrated and fed up. It’s almost like a Groundhog Day time warp down at Punt Road. The season starts full of promise, but it almost always ends this way. You can bet on it! An insipid performance in front of a home crowd at the MCG on Friday night will not bode well for the Tigers. They were lucky last week’s demolition was interstate. The jeers will inevitably come from the fed up Richmond faithful if it happens again. Are the Tigers capable of a four-quarter effort or have they completely crumbled under the pressure? No doubt, the Pies will be preying on those vulnerabilities. They’ll get the win. Collingwood – Over 15.5

Sydney vs. Port Adelaide (SCG)

Sydney will be brimming with confidence after their thrashing over Fremantle. Back at the SCG, against Port, who enjoyed their very own thrashing over Brisbane, this one should be a tough, hard-contested game, in what looks like fairly wet conditions. I can’t go past the Swans at home. Sydney – 1-39

Melbourne vs. Hawthorn (MCG)

Cyril’s back! He was a last minute withdrawal last week (rested) and it made all the difference in Hawthorn’s slimmer than expected win over Carlton. Melbourne won by just two-points over the Suns, in what was, a sloppy game full of skill errors. If the Demons’ mirror last week’s performance in any way, the Hawks will be all over them, and it could get ugly, especially with Jesse Hogan under an injury cloud. Even at their best, they’re not a chance to take the four points from the reigning premiers. The Hawks have won thirty straight over the Demons. This will make it thirty-one. Hawthorn – 25+

Gold Coast vs. GWS (Metricon Stadium)

This is an interesting game. The Suns have been playing okay of late. They’re still injury plagued, but considering that fact, they’re still putting up a decent fight each week. The Giants have peaked at the right time. They’ve got stars all over the ground and it’ll take any opposition they face to be at their absolute best to have a hope of snatching a win off them. The Suns have their opportunity this week, but even at Metricon Stadium, I think the Giants will be far too good – GWS 25+

Not scared of GWS? You will be when you read this list.

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Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

A few weeks ago, most of the football community had the Bulldogs down as winning this one. However, a few weeks in footy can be an eternity, and the injuries just keep on coming for the Doggies. North have now lost Jarrad Waite (again!) to a hip injury that’s now required surgery, so the reliance up forward for the Roos’ is now on Ben Brown and a back-in-form veteran, Drew Petrie. Majak Daw has been playing well in the VFL, so a return to the senior side, with Waite now out, could be on the cards. No doubt, the Dogs’ put up a brave fight to keep up with Geelong last week, but there’s only so much a team can do to keep going, and keep winning, when their players keep going down. Had luck stayed with the Dogs’ (and much of this caper is luck) they’d be serious contenders for the premiership. As of now, they’ll still finish in the top eight, but with their injury list growing by the week, and few returns likely, it’ll be a short-lived finals campaign. North’s win last week has all but secured their position in the top eight. A win here will absolutely confirm it. They’ll get it. North Melbourne – over -5.5

Adelaide vs. Brisbane (Adelaide Oval)

After a belting from Port Adelaide, Brisbane travel to Adelaide Oval to get beaten up by the Adelaide Crows on Saturday night! Despite the massive loss to Port, the club rewarded the Lions’ players with a fun bonding trip to Wet ‘n Wild on the Gold Coast! The supporters and members were just gutted – again! – by a lack of skill, discipline, fitness and genuine effort on game day, and yet, the club decided a long overdue day on the slippery slides was way overdue. No, I’m NOT kidding!

Adelaide is coming off a massive win over Essendon. This week the Lions are traveling to Adelaide Oval, and it’ll be another massive, percentage-boosting win for the Crows. Sam Jacobs will miss with a sprained ankle. Taylor Walker should return from his own ankle tweak. Veteran, Scott Thompson will be rested. At the end of the day, the Adelaide reserves could play and the Crows would still get the win! How many will Eddie kick? Put him down for 6+ goals. Whatever that’s paying, get on! Adelaide 60+

Carlton vs. St. Kilda (MCG)

St. Kilda are now out of finals contention. Will that knowledge affect how they play out the year? Has the spark gone? Carlton has showed a whole lot this year. They’ve won more games than expected, and they’ve almost won games that were supposed to be easy pickings for the opposition. Andrew Walker has announced his retirement, so the Blues will want to win this one for him. I can see St. Kilda being flat now that their late finals charge has officially come to an end. Carlton – 1-39.

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Geelong vs. Essendon (Etihad Stadium)

The Cats are on point and purring their way to the finals. Percentage is crucial to securing a top four spot, and this game allows them to boost their percentage even further. The Bombers have been gallant for most of the season; however, it’s a long season at the best of times. The Essendon players are young and tired, and the top-up players, who didn’t get anywhere near a full pre-season under their belts, well, as expected, they’re tired too. The last four rounds can’t come quick enough for the Bombers. The Cats will take full advantage of Essendon’s mental and physical fatigue and Patrick Dangerfield will snare himself another three Brownlow votes. At this stage, the big question isn’t IF he’ll win, but if he’ll break the record 35 votes? He’s on track if his form holds. That bet’s currently showing $4 on Sportsbet. Geelong – 40+

Fremantle vs. West Coast (Domain Stadium)

The Western Derby…well, these matches used to be a highlight. Not this time. The Dockers are riddled with injuries and the Eagles aren’t playing the way we’re used to seeing them play. They’re a bit like a train that’s fallen off the back end of the track. They’re still moving forward, but the ride is slower, bumpy and far from smooth going. They lack energy, grunt and aggression. Nic Nat will more than likely return following several weeks on the sidelines after achillies’ surgery. He gives the Eagles a much-needed boost. They’ve really missed him in the centre, but he’s not their lone saviour. Most of the team has to lift if they’re going to give finals a shake. Fremantle’s ruck woes will also end with Aaron Sandilands set to return in the same game. Ironically, it was a knee in the back during a ruck contest from Naitanui that broke Sandilands’ ribs and punctured his lung earlier this year.  He’ll more than likely wear a rib guard for a few weeks. After three weeks on the sidelines, Hayden Ballantyne will return from a fractured cheekbone. He’ll also wear protection, in the form of a helmet. Look, the Eagles aren’t flying, by any means, but the Dockers are done. West Coast 25+

Best Bets

Highest Margin of the Week: Adelaide-Brisbane @ $2

Highest Scoring Team – Adelaide @ $1.90

Most Disposals of the Week – Patrick Dangerfield @ $5 (additionally, he’s showing $4.50 to get 40+ in the Geelong-Essendon game).

Multi #1 – Collingwood H2H/Sydney over 15.5/Hawthorn 25+/North Melbourne H2H/Adelaide 60+/West Coast H2H = $9.21

Multi #2 – Collingwood H2H/Sydney over 15.5/Hawthorn over 15.5/North Melbourne H2H/Adelaide 60+/West Coast H2H = $7.79 (same as Multi #1, with a slightly lower margin on the Hawthorn-Melbourne game, just in case some key players are rested. Hedge your bet).

*Odds quoted are with Sportsbet as of 7PM (EST) on August 3, 2016.