This weekend the MCG will be electric.
On Saturday, the Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions will collide in the 130th AFL Grand Final, each chasing glory, each carrying the weight of expectations.
A Tale of Two Journeys
Geelong’s path here feels both familiar and merciless. Entering the season on the back of preliminary final heartbreak in 2024, the Cats finished second with a 17–6 record. Their finals campaign underlined their resolve: a 38‑point qualifying final thumping of Brisbane sent notice; then a comprehensive 30‑point win over Hawthorn in the preliminary decider sealed their berth.
Brisbane, meanwhile, arrives on the back of both dominance and injury questions. They began the finals with a stinging 38‑point loss to Geelong in Week 1 but clawed back their season with a commanding 53‑point semi‑final win over Gold Coast, then subdued Collingwood by 29 to earn their third straight Grand Final. As reigning premiers, they’re eyeing a rare back-to-back feat.
History backs the Cats’ consistency; Brisbane brings hunger for a dynasty. Neither is to be underestimated.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – SEPTEMBER 26: Patrick Dangerfield of the Cats and Lachie Neale of the Lions pose for a photograph with the Premiership Cup during the 2025 AFL Grand Final Parade on September 26, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Late Whispers and Team Changes
In the final twist before the big dance, Geelong’s vice‑captain Tom Stewart is ruled out with concussion. In steps Rhys Stanley. Stewart’s absence is a blow—not just structurally, but symbolically—yet Geelong have rehearsed respondability in past adversity.
Brisbane’s gambit is even more dramatic: Lachie Neale has declared himself fit after a calf strain that initially sidelined him. But his role is far from assured—whether he starts or fills the bench will be the grand final’s ultimate cliffhanger. Meanwhile, Jarrod Berry misses out after injuring his shoulder.
These decisions carry more than tactical weight. How will Neale’s comeback play out and how will Geelong’s replacements cope under Grand Final pressure?
Matchups, Momentum & Margin
If this is to be a classic, much will ride on contested-ball battles and midfield control. Geelong’s experience—anchored by seasoned campaigners—might be their edge in tight phases. Brisbane’s youthful energy, with players like Will Ashcroft still marching tall after his Norm Smith heroics last year, injects uncertainty.
During the season, Brisbane took both head‑to‑head matchups (Round 3 by nine points, Round 15 by 41). But in the finals, Geelong turned the tide—beating Brisbane in the qualifier by 38 to reassert their control. That sees sportsbooks and analytics tilting toward the Cats: models hovering around ~69% chance of victory, and betting markets placing Geelong as favourites.
Yet Grand Finals are not won on paper. They hinge on momentum, composure, and who can bend the key moments without breaking.
Atmosphere, Stage & Stakes
Melbourne is bracing for ideal grand final conditions: a top of 19 °C, intermittent cloud cover, dry throughout the match, and fresh westerly winds. A crowd approaching 100,000 is expected, filling the MCG with roars, nerves, and stories in every seat.
On the day, Snoop Dogg takes the halftime spot, and the buildup will include traditional flair reminding every player that this is the grand stage.
For Geelong, an eleventh flag—and a statement that their era endures. For Brisbane, a chance at dynastic momentum, back-to-back glory, and vindication.
What to Watch (and Hope)
- Neale’s impact (if he plays) — Can he move like match‑fit, or will the injury linger at decisive moments?
- Geelong’s backline without Stewart — Will Stanley slot in seamlessly, or will Brisbane find cracks?
- Clearance cousins — Whoever dominates the middle may tilt field position across the noon-to-dusk tilt.
- Momentum swings and pressure moments — Turnovers, contested kicks, set shots: small margins, huge impact.
- Stamina under fatigue — The last quarter often tells the tale.
In a contest built on stories—comebacks, legacies, shifts in balance— that one day in September may deliver one of those finals that stitches itself into AFL folklore. Two clubs, two quests, one moment where everything happens at once.
