State of Origin 2026: In-Depth Analysis of Game Tactics

The AFL Victoria vs Western Australia clash in 2026 is set to bring state pride and elite footy action back to the forefront. And best believe we’re locked in for the 14 February date at Optus Stadium. However, you can be sure that these teams won’t be there to celebrate Valentine’s.

It sure as hell is going to be war — a no-holds-barred exchange between two of the best teams in Australia. After all, it’s the first proper Origin in 27 years. More than 60,000 fans are tipped to pack the ground, and the AFL has promised the best of the best. With Nick Daicos, Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Cripps and Aaron Naughton all in the frame, this is no throwaway pre-season hit-out. It’s state pride, and it’s back.

Why Did They Decide to Bring Back the State of Origin Format?

The last time Origin football was played in earnest was 1992 at the MCG. That was when Victoria beat South Australia in front of just over 26,000 fans. After that, the format was shelved. Clubs were reluctant to risk their stars in what was seen as an “extra” game, and the AFL calendar was already packed. Representative football became a casualty of scheduling and player welfare concerns.

But the push never went away. Fans kept calling for it, and players too. According to AFL.com.au, AFL CEO Andrew Dillon said a conversation with Carlton captain Patrick Cripps helped convince him the time was right. “I could see how much it meant to him if that opportunity could happen,” Dillon explained. And we all know the trick to these things. Once the players got on board, the club followed — and they did.

The AFL confirmed the return in September 2025 to much fanfare. The big return was to see Western Australia hosting Victoria at Optus Stadium. The WA government pushed hard to secure the event. It’s a no-brainer that it was going to be an unparalleled showcase for the state. Dillon stressed that the format will be limited.

This means there would be only one Origin match per season. This time, WA vs Victoria was locked in as the marquee fixture. Other states may be considered in future, though, and we hope they will. But the AFL wants to keep the format manageable. And that’s probably for the best. For now, we need to savour this much-awaited return.

Potential Lineups and Key Players

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Discussing Liverpool’s chances this season, fans often debate their likelihood of success. As a reference, the Liverpool Champions League odds provide an idea of how bookmakers rate the team. Ultimately, though, the real picture will only emerge on the pitch, through the team’s performance against their opponents.

Riley Beveridge’s piece for AFL.com.au sketched out what the teams might look like, providing some early State of Origin predictions. Victoria’s squad is stacked with All-Australian talent, while WA’s strength lies in its key-position players.

Victoria’s likely strengths:

• Their midfield rotation is to die for. Who wouldn’t be psyched by the idea of Daicos, Bontempelli, Serong, and Merrett in the middle of the park?
• They have Jeremy Cameron and Sam Darcy as tall forward options. Toby Greene, on the other hand, would be buzzing at ground level. That’s some much-needed flexibility right there.
• Darcy Moore and Jacob Weitering are some of the best at commanding the backline. That defence has got many attackers on toast in the past.

Western Australia’s likely strengths:

• The Patrick Cripps X Chad Warner partnership in midfield is an absolute delight. They’re particularly unstoppable on the move, promising to give Victoria something to think about.
• The aerial prowess of Aaron Naughton, Jesse Hogan, and Mitch Georgiades could do some serious damage to any team.
• Sam Taylor and Tom Barrass as defensive pillars would be a balanced combo. It could be key to nullifying the threat of Cameron, Darcy, and Greene.

Weaknesses:

• We believe Victoria’s challenge with rotating a star-heavy midfield can be exploited.
• WA, on the other hand, has a thinner midfield. This means they rely heavily on Cripps and Warner, and a bad game for them may spell disaster.

We’ve highlighted the predicted lineups in the table.

The BigFooty AFL discussion threads are already buzzing. Some reckon WA’s tall forwards could stretch Victoria’s defence, while others argue the Vics’ midfield will simply overwhelm them.

Tactical Plan for Victoria

Victoria will lean on its midfield depth. Expect a possession-heavy style, using precise kicking to control territory. Their AFL attacking strategy will focus on isolating Cameron and Darcy inside 50, with Greene applying pressure at ground level.

Defensively, Moore will lead a high press, forcing WA to kick long. With Max Gawn in the ruck, Victoria should dominate stoppages. The key will be containing WA’s tall forwards if the supply is clean.

Tactical Plan for Western Australia

WA’s plan will be built on speed and direct ball movement. At Optus Stadium, they’ll use the wide wings to stretch Victoria’s defence. Cripps and Warner will drive the midfield, aiming for quick entries to Naughton and Hogan.

Defensively, WA will sit deeper. Taylor and Barrass will take Cameron and Darcy, while Clark and Baker provide rebound. Their AFL match strategy breakdown suggests a counter-attacking style, relying on turnovers to score.

Match Development Scenarios

The AFL tactical analysis points to several scenarios that could swing the game:

• Early WA goal: The crowd lifts, WA gains confidence, and Victoria is forced to chase.
• Early Victoria goal: The Vics settle, slow the tempo, and silence the crowd.
• Key injury: If Cripps goes down, WA’s midfield collapses. If Daicos is injured, Victoria has depth to cover.
• Sending-off: In a one-off game, a red card would be disastrous.

At half-time, expect adjustments. Victoria may push Bontempelli forward to exploit mismatches. WA could throw Shai Bolton into the midfield for a spark. Coaches will also rotate heavily to manage the February heat.

This is more than a one-off. As Dillon noted, the game doubles as an AFL 2026 season preview, with coaches trialling structures that may filter into club football.

Key Factors That Could Decide the Match

By analyzing the team lineups, we can predict the factors that will influence the outcome of the game. Let’s look at the most interesting ones:

• Midfield battle: Can Cripps and Warner match Victoria’s depth?
• Forward efficiency: Which side converts inside 50 entries?
• Defensive matchups: Taylor vs Cameron, Moore vs Naughton.
• Crowd influence: Will Optus Stadium rattle the Vics?
• Heat management: Which side handles Perth’s summer better?

Players to Watch Closely

If you’re planning to watch the match, here are the players you should pay attention to:

• Nick Daicos (Victoria): Elite ball use, capable of slicing through defences.
• Marcus Bontempelli (Victoria): Can swing forward and change momentum.
• Patrick Cripps (WA): The heartbeat of WA’s midfield.
• Aaron Naughton (WA): Aerial threat who could stretch Victoria’s defence.
• Sam Taylor (WA): Defensive general tasked with stopping Cameron.

Conclusion

The State of Origin 2026 is more than just a nostalgic throwback for us. For fans, it’s a chance to see the best AFL players in 2026 in a setting that blends state pride with modern strategy. For coaches, it’s a live experiment in AFL defensive structures and AFL attacking strategy that could shape the season. Whether you’re following the BigFooty AFL discussion threads or sitting in the stands at Optus, this Origin clash will be remembered as the day representative footy finally found its way back.

Feature photo by Daniel Anthony on Unsplash