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Recent content by TipBetPro

  1. TipBetPro

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    I had Port 3rd and that dropped to 7th after drug bans. Port were one of the better performers with respect to performance and expectations ... I'm happy enough with them. Now Collingwood (overrated) and Sydney (underrated) on the other hand ...
  2. TipBetPro

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    1. I don't sell any software packages - everything at TipBetPro is absolutely free 2. I said up front the model is primarily built for short term forecasting (as it is a player based model so recommendations are based on the named 22 every week). Love a pre-season prediction for a bit of fun...
  3. TipBetPro

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Not really. I thought I made it very clear that any long term forecasting is extremely speculative and relies on historical data to forecast a full season ahead is always going to cause potentially significant variance. Have you found anyone who has predicted with any accuracy what has occurred...
  4. TipBetPro

    Not actually sure how these stats are determined.

    Well in fairness that was an unusual game in that West Coast ran extra numbers to the stoppages which allowed Hawthorn to dictate possession behind the ball and then rack up uncontested touches at will. There was very little contested footy that day.
  5. TipBetPro

    Not actually sure how these stats are determined.

    Chest mark on the lead isn't a contested mark. It is only if there is a body on body contest in the lead up to the mark or there is a pack that it is called contested. Interestingly whether there is actually a contest and the point of taking the mark doesn't impact the definition. For instance...
  6. TipBetPro

    Not actually sure how these stats are determined.

    Definition is it needs to change the course of play. So you tackle someone and then get a handball away to a teammate that's no tackle. Tackle them and their handball doesn't find a teammate - that's recorded as a tackle as it is deemed to have changed the course of play
  7. TipBetPro

    Not actually sure how these stats are determined.

    The "kick to self" isn't counted as a stat but the subsequent kick is (I worked as a caller for CD for over 10 years)
  8. TipBetPro

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Very little to be honest and that's what makes pre-season predictions incredibly difficult. There is an experience factor coefficient in the algorithm with younger players getting a significant bump in their experience coefficient whilst 100+ game players experience coefficient largely remains...
  9. TipBetPro

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Take 3 at the TipBetPro Pre-Season Ladder Predictions updating from the initial crack back in January and the update post the supplement saga suspensions This time around we take into consideration all the Essendon top-up players plus known suspensions and injuries (i.e. Roughead, Swallow...
  10. TipBetPro

    Australia's World T20 Squad (March 2016)

    Given our lack of fit quality pace bowling options and that the tournament is being played in India, I would love to see us pick a squad chock full of spinners: For mine the squad of 15 Batsman (6): Warner Finch Khawaja Smith Head Lynn All-Rounders (2): Watson Maxwell Keeper (1): Nevill (I...
  11. TipBetPro

    Deepest list

    Sure - we assign ranking points by player based on various different metrics but largely experience and "adjusted" AFL player ranking (there are a few areas of disagreement we have with the AFL player ranking that we try to adjust for where possible) and the results for players rated 23-30 on...
  12. TipBetPro

    Deepest list

    I assume you are looking at the squad Top 30 Rank? That actually refers to the entire best 30 rank with respect to the question of "squad depth" we actually only look at players 23-30 on the list in which we rank the Dogs 11th. Perhaps because the Dogs used so much of their list their 23rd to...
  13. TipBetPro

    Deepest list

    Correct - both expansion sides were up there on our "depth ladder"
  14. TipBetPro

    Deepest list

    We did a little squad analysis earlier in the season (prior to the Essendon bans) and rated Collingwood followed by West Coast and Port Adelaide as having the deepest lists (where depth is measured by highest quality players outside of best 22)
  15. TipBetPro

    2016 Ladder Predictions

    Not totally inaccurate - the AFL Player Rankings are about as good as ranking system as there is ... but that's not to say it doesn't have flaws as outlined in my post above. As mentioned, I have attempted to address those flaws as best I can in my algorithm for round to round tipping (and done...
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