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  1. The Tip Jar

    Preview AFL 2026 Rd 9 - North v Swans - Sat May 9th 12:35pm (Marvel)

    Sydney by 22 from the model. North have been better than expected but Sydney's forward line is hard to contain at Marvel. Sheezel gets a great matchup here for SC/Fantasy. Projected 116 SC / 113 AF in what should be an open game. If you need a R9 captain option outside the rucks he is worth...
  2. The Tip Jar

    Roast 2026 Vent Your Disappointments Here

    Serong and Ed Richards owners are on completely different ends of the spectrum this season. One doing everything right and not scoring, the other doing everything right and cooking. Model had Serong at 111+ average for the season. At 89 actual through 8 rounds he is the biggest underperformer...
  3. The Tip Jar

    Position 2026 AFL Fantasy Defenders

    Sheezel is the standout defender value in the comp right now. 113 AF projected this week vs Sydney in a game where he will rack up touches. Richards and Daicos (wherever he plays) are the other names worth holding long term. Full defender rankings and price projections at footytipjar.com...
  4. The Tip Jar

    Opinion 2026 Player X x Y x Z

    For any of these the R9 projections at footytipjar.com are worth a look. Breaks down the matchup, season average and price trajectory. Updates again Thursday when teams drop.
  5. The Tip Jar

    Opinion AFL 2026 Round 8 - Weekend Wrap & Liked, Learnt, Hated

    Liked: Daicos continuing to poll. He is now on 16 Brownlow votes through 8 rounds and the model has him as a near-certainty at 78.5% win probability. Learnt: Ed Richards is quietly becoming one of the best players in the comp and still gets overlooked in best player discussions. Hated: Caleb...
  6. The Tip Jar

    Preview AFL 2026 Rd 9 - GWS v Bombers - Sat May 9th 4:15pm (ENGIE Stadium)

    GWS by 15 from the model. Essendon has been inconsistent away from the MCG and GWS at home is a different proposition. Clayton Oliver's role in the GWS midfield continues to be interesting, he has had more impact than some expected.
  7. The Tip Jar

    Captains 2026 Fantasy VC/Captains Thread

    Fixturlexia.
  8. The Tip Jar

    Preview AFL 2026 Rd 9 - Demons v Eagles - Sun May 10th 1:10pm (Marvel)

    Melbourne by 45+ from the model. West Coast's midfield has been one of the weakest in the comp and Melbourne get Gawn and Pickett back into form territory. Hard to see a path for the Eagles here. footytipjar.com for round margins.
  9. The Tip Jar

    Preview AFL 2026 Rd 9 - Cats v Pies - Sat May 9th 7:35pm (M.C.G.)

    Tight one from the model. Collingwood by 8-12. Daicos vs a Geelong midfield that has been giving up big scores to opposition players. Cats forward line has been better than expected this season though. Wouldn't be surprised by a Geelong win. footytipjar.com for the full round predictions.
  10. The Tip Jar

    Preview AFL 2026 Round 9 - Lions v Blues Fri May 8th 7:30pm AEST (Gabba)

    Brisbane by 35+ from the model. Carlton's issues go beyond one week and the Gabba on Friday night is about as bad a draw as you can get right now. The Blues need a massive statement but the Lions at home are top 3 in the comp. Full margin predictions at footytipjar.com.
  11. The Tip Jar

    Preview AFL 2026 Round 9 - Freo v Hawks Thurs May 7th 8:10pm AEST/6:10pm (OS)

    Freo by 18-22 from the model. Optus at night is hard to win and Hawthorn's road form hasn't been great. Hawks aren't without a chance but I'd expect Freo's midfield to take control in the second half. Model tips and margin predictions at footytipjar.com.
  12. The Tip Jar

    Position 2026 AFL Fantasy Rookies

    Cumming is the safest cash option available right now. Job security is solid and the BE sits at a level where he can keep generating cash through the bye. The issue is at $390k he's not cheap enough to get excited about the ceiling. Worth tracking Lombard too. BE of 20 and Saints/Port/NM coming...
  13. The Tip Jar

    Discussion 2026 General Discussion/Help Thread

    The AFL Fantasy vendor situation has been a mess for a while. For what it's worth footytipjar.com pulls breakeven and price data directly from the official Fantasy feed now so it's always in sync with what the app shows. Might be useful as a backup for the rounds where the app is playing up.
  14. The Tip Jar

    Opinion Who is currently the best player in the AFL

    Daicos by some margin right now. Brownlow model has him on 16 locked votes through 8 rounds and projecting 30 for the season at 78.5% win probability. The next closest are Butters, Newcombe and Bailey Smith all at 20-26 votes projected but under 7% win chance each. Bont and Petracca are the...
  15. The Tip Jar

    Discussion 2026 Mid-Priced Madness

    Ed Richards is the mid-priced name I keep coming back to. Projecting 108 SC this week vs Port and his role is rock solid. The kind of player who quietly posts 110+ and never gets the recognition until his price has already risen. Taranto is another one at 116 projected vs Adelaide. Richmond's...
  16. The Tip Jar

    Captains 2026 Fantasy VC/Captains Thread

    For R9 Grundy (111 AF projected) is the ceiling play vs NM. Bont (100) and Sheezel (113) are the mid/fwd options worth considering. Gawn at 110 AF vs West Coast if you want the safe floor. Full AF projections at footytipjar.com, updates again after Thursday teams drop.
  17. The Tip Jar

    Trades 2026 Round 9 Fantasy Trades

    C Serong to McCluggage is the most popular move in the comp right now for good reason. Clugga is projecting 90 AF and the Lions get Carlton at the Gabba Friday night. Perfect spot. Serong is only at 86 projected vs Hawthorn this week so the upgrade math works. footytipjar.com has the full trade...
  18. The Tip Jar

    Game Day 2026 Round 9 Discussion

    Serong is projected at 98 vs Hawthorn this week. Not a disaster matchup but nothing to get excited about either. Model has him as a hold not a trade. Top CBA role is still there, the scores just haven't come. Feels like a niggle or scheme issue rather than a permanent drop-off.
  19. The Tip Jar

    Game Day 2026 Round 9 Discussion

    The forward rookie cupboard being bare is real pain this week. Lombard's BE of 20 with Saints/Port/NM coming up is worth holding though. That's a genuine cash cow run if he fires. Problem is everyone's scrambling for the same few options. MSD can't come soon enough.
  20. The Tip Jar

    Captains 2026 Round 9 VC/Captain

    Model has Gawn as the standout this week. 140 SC projection vs West Coast, highest ceiling available. Jackson is the obvious VC loop play but if you don't have the loop, Gawn straight C is hard to argue with. Bont (122) and Xerri (119) are the best mid options if rucks are covered. Butters at...
  21. The Tip Jar

    AFL 2026 AFL Brownlow

    As much as we love posting here - we'll continue when we can, but not this week! Track our votes from R8 onwards on footytipjar.com
  22. The Tip Jar

    Captains 2026 Fantasy VC/Captains Thread

    Bazcos for us this week!
  23. The Tip Jar

    Captains 2026 Round 8 VC/Captain

    Tough call this week without Xerri. One of Gawndy is bound to dominate, but can both? It's probably Bont into Grundy for us.
  24. The Tip Jar

    AFL 2026 AFL Brownlow

    Our model's Round 7 Brownlow votes are in. Bulldogs v Swans 3. C Curnow 2. M Bontempelli 1. B Grundy Richmond v Melbourne 3. K Pickett 2. T Sparrow 1. C Windsor Hawthorn v Gold Coast 3. J Newcombe 2. J Gunston 1. J Impey Essendon v Collingwood 3. S Pendlebury 2. N Daicos 1. J De Goey Port v...
  25. The Tip Jar

    Captains 2026 Fantasy VC/Captains Thread

    Model says Bazcos but we still say Gawndy.
  26. The Tip Jar

    Captains 2026 Round 7 VC/Captain

    Just Gawndy.
  27. The Tip Jar

    AFL 2026 AFL Brownlow

    Our model's Round 6 Brownlow votes are in. Carlton v Collingwood 3. N Daicos 2. S Walsh 1. J Elliott Geelong v Western Bulldogs 3. J Cameron 2. B Smith 1. M Holmes Sydney v GWS 3. N Blakey 2. C Oliver 1. J McInerney Gold Coast v Essendon 3. M Rowell 2. C Petracca 1. D Parish Hawthorn v...
  28. The Tip Jar

    Trades 2026 Round 7 Fantasy Trades

    Hey all, hope you don't mind the semi-plug. We've been working on a stat projection model with decent success this year and we've just spend the weekend giving the Fantasy (and SC) hub a facelift, and adding some new features, including in-depth price and BE projections, Captains Picks, Market...
  29. The Tip Jar

    Trades 2026 Round 7 Trades

    Hey all, hope you don't mind the semi-plug. We've been working on a stat projection model with decent success this year and we've just spend the weekend giving the fantasy (Supercoach and Fantasy) hub a facelift, and adding some new features, including in-depth price and BE projections, Captains...
  30. The Tip Jar

    The Tip Jar: 2026 Season Projections (Stats-Driven Model)

    8/9 last week like many others. 34/45 (76%) on the season going into last night. Round 6 tips are in. Projected end of season ladder: Surprisingly, Geelong still favoured to knock off Brisbane for the flag. Plenty more at footytipjar.com

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