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Sorry - I haven’t run my model this year due to other commitments. Best of luck for tonight.

Interested if there is time.

In: Le Ferrey

Team Votes. Sloane R 1.019 Crouch M 57.10 Laird R 1050 Others > 2000 Beams D 1.892 Zorko D 2.167 Rockliff T 100.622 Others > 5000 Murphy M 2.415 Docherty S 3.616 Gibbs B 5.211 Kreuzer M 8.531 Others > 5000 Adams T 1.282 Treloar A 7.921 Pendlebury S 14.134...

Yes - by a fair distance.

When including suspended players, I have the Top 5 betting as: Danger 1.001 Martin 1.001 Mitchell 1.295 Kelly 1.415 Sloane 1.693 Merrett 1.808 Bont 9.045 Adams 9.443 Oliver 24.481 Ross 38.807 Kennedy 41.121 Others > 50

I've got Selwood on around 13 votes, and Duncan on around 11 votes. If I did a couple of million simulations, then Selwood would be 2nd most likely.

I do. However there are some caveats. - In my opinion, umpires tend to 'underpoll' suspended players towards the top of the leaderboard, as no-one really wants to see a suspended player poll the most votes. So, with that in mind, I expect Danger to not poll as well in the last few rounds...

Historical predictions from 2007 - 2016 below: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2016.1146095 http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2015.1110987 http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2014.1077291...

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely...

A good result for the model this year - identifying Parker as value and picking some nice top end exotics (quinella / trifecta etc.) Teams were OK - while Carlton and Collingwood were disappointing, there was value taken in Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, Adelaide (w/o fav). Personally I went...

In general chat - my model picks Danger as a clear winner - by about 4-5 votes. But, it's not a certainty, the question is has all the media hype (from round 1) helped or harmed him? My feeling is that it has helped, and he should win comfortably. For the rest, Parker is definitely an outlier...

Hi, I haven't posted much in here this year - sorry for that. Been rather busy, and am now catching up at the last minute. Plenty of action on the 3-vote markets offered by some bookies (thanks!) Here are the teams, better late than never. Sloane R 1.148 Laird R 14.171 Betts E 40.048...

If only you could multi...

Historical predictions from 2007 - 2015 below: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2015.1110987 http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2014.1077291 http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2013.1032770...

As with last year, while I will continue posting in this thread I will not be releasing the Exotic Markets (Rnd 5 leader / teams / groups etc.) through BigFooty this year. Please PM me for any queries you have on this.

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely...

FINAL RANK 3,897 OF 162,573 BEST RANK 1,499 AVG 2,000.1 BEST SCORE 2,429 IN RD 20 TOTAL SCORE 46,003 AVG 2,000.1

Any chance of a league. Came 4005 last year which was slightly lower than previous years.

Yes please.

My last post for 2015. I believe that my model is better than the bookies - and over the last 9 years of posting the weight of evidence would suggest so. Before writing it off, I would advise you to review the history. While Gaff and Goldstein were disappointing this year, if you just went...

Not one of the better years for the BG model. On the positive side - picked the winner Fyfe. On the negative side - the two main value bets identified were a little disappointing; Goldstein struggled to poll early in the year, but came home strongly, while Gaff polled a lot of 1s and 2s and...

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There is precedence with Bartel in 2008 and even Judd in 2011 (after crazy polling to win in 2010). Robert Harvey polled well to win two in a row (97/98), but the difference was that he was favourite in 1997 and wasn't viewed as 'overpolled' to win.

Last comment on Dangerfield. While some of his teammates were missing at stages this year - I believe that Thompson and Jacobs will step up to 'steal' some of his votes. The Crows won an extra 2 games this year, but did only play 21 in total, meaning that (as a team) they will probably poll an...

Yes - this is based on an analysis of each game throughout the year. As you can imagine there is a heavy stats basis, ensuring that the system is 'impartial'. This is, I believe, what differentiates my model from other systems, as quite often there is a lot of (unintentional) bias as particular...

Gaff has a very high standard deviation as a result of potentially polling in a lot of games. He also has a possibility of going large if the umpires 'penalise' Priddis for overpolling and winning last year - which has happened before.

Dangerfield is the certainly the one that my model differs the most with. According to my model, he's had a very similar year to 2014 - but I don't expect him to get the same armchair ride from the umpires. Even if he does - I'm expecting the winner to get around 26-28 votes, and it's unlikely...

Pretty much. Other factors have me considering whether I can justify the time required for this in 2016. If there is enough interest I'll continue doing it, otherwise it probably won't get the attention needed.