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Did you read the disclaimer right below there.

PythagoNRL is the well-known one. The Cruncher who is on Squiggle is primarily an NRL modeler/fan.

"Most early-season projections will predict an unusually close year, tipping too few wins for the top team and too many for the wooden spooner. This isn't an error; it's because "How many wins will the top team have, whoever they turn out to be?" is actually a different question to "How many...

It's a mean ladder. 11 wins wouldn't get you 7th. You are conflating the two.

Far more variance than +/- 2 wins.

At Round 5 the aggregate ladder is very good. I don't take it too seriously until then.

I have Hawthorn 11th and Brisbane 7th, something is clearly wrong.

How was Geelong's off-season out of personal interest.?

I think the model's aggregate ladder and what the media are saying about particular teams is quite different. I keep hearing in the media about how Carlton are going to play finals, and how Hawthorn are in danger of winning the wooden spoon. Yet, Hawthorn sit above Carlton on the aggregate...