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The CFR obviously affected by the capture rate of testing. That's why the IFR is calculated from serological surveillance. The population IFRs that were calculated before the vaccine were consistently in the 0.5% to 1% range. Seasonal flu is in the 0.05% to 0.1% range. That's why I said that...

Here is a line from his editorial from March 2020: "As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that's a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between...

The rate you quote is daily admissions. There have been 2,100 admissions in that age group in the last week.

The 0.002% is deaths compared to population. It isn't deaths compared to cases. The Massachusetts stats on breakthroughs are: 15,731 cases 131 deaths 0.83% CFR 3x higher survival rate per case with a much older demographic. Vaccine clearly saving hundreds of lives.

The UK had a CFR of 3% before the vaccine. If that was still true, the 30,000 cases a day they have been seeing would lead to about 900 deaths and not 100. This is backed up by the fact that the rate of death (for over 50s) is 16x higher in the unvaccinated population than the vaccinated...

No. That is the current rate. Over time the cumulative rate will add up to much higher than that.

It's just the reality of how infectious the variant is. Outbreaks go from 1 to 20 in no time. We will be 1 week away from disaster until there is very high vaccination rates.

The chances of returning to zero are getting slimmer and slimmer. It will take weeks even if everything goes right. The scenario we are in now is that we are buying time for vaccination, even if it is not by intention.

99.985%

It's more deadly for all adult age groups. There's a reason why the death toll for those under 65 in the US is 126,000 for COVID-19 and 10,000 a year for flu.

The IFR is pretty well established in the 0.5% to 1% range. Which is 10x seasonal flu. Effective early treatments and therapeutics would be an addition to vaccines and not a replacement.

Here is something I mocked up using the US data. COVID-19's age related curve matches the age related curve of heart disease pretty well from 15 to 85.