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Collingwood +4 v Geelong

North Melbourne v Essendon +17

Sydney +12 v Gold Coast

Brisbane +12 v Adelaide

Carlton +4 v Melbourne

West Coast v Fremantle +34

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs +19

St Kilda +3 v Richmond

Port Adelaide +9 v GWS


8/9, 136/189


1. Carlton 16.61

2. Collingwood 15.66

3. Adelaide 13.34

4. Melbourne 12.48 (+2)

5. Brisbane 12.39

6. Geelong 11.14 (+1)

7. Western Bulldogs 10.08 (-2)

8. Port Adelaide 10.05 (+2)

9. Sydney 8.76

10. GWS 5.63 (-2)

11. St Kilda 1.08 (+1)

12. Gold Coast 0.52 (-1)

13. Fremantle -2.36 (+1)

14. Hawthorn -4.31 (+1)

15. Richmond -8.93 (-2)

16. Essendon -10.42

17. North Melbourne -25.93

18. West Coast -44.51


1. Collingwood 18.35

2. Port Adelaide 16.29

3. Brisbane 16.08

4. Melbourne 15.15

5. Carlton 13.77

6. St Kilda 12.73 (+2)

7. Western Bulldogs 12.44 (-1)

8. Sydney 12.36 (+3)

9. GWS 12.05 (-2)

10. Adelaide 11.615

11. Geelong 11.611 (-2)

12. Essendon 11.52

13. Richmond 10.36

14. Gold Coast 10.10

15. Fremantle 9.89

16. Hawthorn 7.93

17. North Melbourne 2.63

18. West Coast 2.1


Collingwood +9 v Brisbane

Richmond +17 v North Melbourne

Gold Coast v Carlton +10

GWS +24 v Essendon

St Kilda v Geelong +10

Adelaide +17 v Sydney

Western Bulldogs +67 v West Coast

Melbourne +17 v Hawthorn

Fremantle v Port Adelaide +1


Collingwood 17, Brisbane, Essendon

Brisbane 15, Collingwood, St Kilda

Port Adelaide, 15, Fremantle, Richmond

Melbourne 14, Hawthorn, Sydney

Carlton 12.5, Gold Coast, GWS

St Kilda, 12, Geelong, Brisbane

Sydney 11.5, Adelaide, Melbourne

Western Bulldogs 11, West Coast, Geelong

Essendon 11, GWS, Collingwood

GWS 11, Essendon, Carlton

Geelong 10.5, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs

Adelaide 10, Sydney, West Coast

Richmond 9, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide

Fremantle 9, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn

Gold Coast 9, Carlton, North Melbourne

Hawthorn 7, Melbourne, Fremantle

North Melbourne 2, Richmond, Gold Coast

West Coast 2, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide


Likely finish


Collingwood 18 or 19

Brisbane 16 or 17

Port Adelaide 16 or 17

Melbourne 15 or 16

Carlton 13.5 or 14.5

St Kilda 12 or 13

Sydney 11.5 or 12.5 or 13.5

Western Bulldogs 12 or 13

Essendon 11

GWS 12 or 13

Geelong 10.5 or 11.5 or 12.5

Adelaide 11 or 12

Richmond 10

Fremantle 9 or 10 or 11

Gold Coast 10

Hawthorn 7 or 8

North Melbourne 2

West Coast 2


There are some real key matches for the makeup of the 8:


Carlton v GWS

St Kilda v Geelong

Sydney v Adelaide

Sydney v Melbourne

Western Bulldogs v Geelong


Taking these as the only relevant results, my the odds for making the finals are:


Carlton: 100% 5th

St Kilda: 47%

Sydney: 66%. Two tough matches, but if they win one it would take freak results to keep them out

Bulldogs: 69%: Nearly certain if they win or Sydney beats GWS

Essendon: I'm considering them a write-off. Maybe I should do the calculations again with the GWS match.

GWS: 26%

Geelong: 30%. Essentially, if they win two games they make the finals. If they lose one, they don't.

Adelaide: 42%. They need to win both matches, but one is at home (admittedly against the in-form Sydney) and the other is a bankable win against West Coast. A strong percentage combined with the West Coast game should mean they won't miss out on that account. Over 60% to make the finals if they beat Sydney.


The most likely 5-8s:


Carlton, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide

Carlton, Bulldogs, Sydney, Adelaide

Carlton, Geelong, Adelaide, Bulldogs

Carlton, Bulldogs, Adelaide, St Kilda.


(These are all from result sets that have Carlton beating GWS, Geelong beating St Kilda, and Adelaide beating Sydney)


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