AFL Round 19

[TheKanga]

Well the split round is finally over

Early odds

Fremantle - 1.18
Carlton - 4.75

Line - 31.5

Sydney - 1.28
Essendon - 3.50

Line - 27.5

Richmond - 1.06
GWS - 8.00

Line - 45.5

North Melbourne - 2.45
Geelong - 1.53

Line - 11.5

Gold Coast - 1.27
St Kilda - 3.55

Line - 23.5

Melbourne - 1.61
Brisbane - 2.25

Line - 8.5

Hawthorn - 1.13
Western Bulldogs - 5.75

Line - 33.5

 

[BloodRet]

Good that the sportsbet special extends to this round.

Nothing that appealing, maybe the Saints, Brisbane and Port. Crappy lines.

 

[TheKanga]

If that promo is continuing I think North could be worth a punt.
Have matched up well against the Cats at Etihad in recent times.
From memory don't the Cats struggle after the bye?

 

[Redacted Boner]

Trying to spot the live dogs for the sportsbet promo; North looks a good bet at Etihad, Cats struggle to put teams away there.

Lions, dare I say it, have another winnable game against Melbourne.

Maybe the Saints too, no Ablett = no Suns. What are they 0-8 without Ablett and 1.27 H2H, crazy.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Brisbane will only have to kick 6 goals to get within 20 of Melbourne so its a free hit imo

 

[TheKanga]

Geelong since round 11

Sydney - Loss by 110pts
Carlton - Win by 5pts
St Kilda - Win by 104pts
Gold Coast - Loss by 40pts
Essendon - Win by 9pts
Western Bulldogs - Win by 13pts
Melbourne - Win by 68pts
GWS - Win by 7pts

So they are a very up and down side and only just doing enough, relying on some indivual brilliance of players like Stevie J or Selwood to get them the win.
At Etihad they very nearly dropped games against Carlton and Essendon, had no right to win those really.
I just get the feeling after bye they could come out and take it easy against North, who I like to think will be breathing fire after our capitulation against Carlton.
We could regain Wells from injury which would help, 50/50 at this stage though they might wait to bring him back against GWS.

 

[BloodRet]

If that promo is continuing I think North could be worth a punt.
Have matched up well against the Cats at Etihad in recent times.
From memory don't the Cats struggle after the bye?

Well given they lost by 110 coming their last bye I think that is a fair assumption.

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Geelong since round 11

Sydney - Loss by 110pts
Carlton - Win by 5pts
St Kilda - Win by 104pts
Gold Coast - Loss by 40pts
Essendon - Win by 9pts
Western Bulldogs - Win by 13pts
Melbourne - Win by 68pts
GWS - Win by 7pts

So they are a very up and down side and only just doing enough, relying on some indivual brilliance of players like Stevie J or Selwood to get them the win.
At Etihad they very nearly dropped games against Carlton and Essendon, had no right to win those really.
I just get the feeling after bye they could come out and take it easy against North, who I like to think will be breathing fire after our capitulation against Carlton.
We could regain Wells from injury which would help, 50/50 at this stage though they might wait to bring him back against GWS.

Ive done some statistics and have come up with this formula:

When north are underdogs, get on.
When north are favourites, dont get on.

 

[Redacted Boner]

Brisbane will only have to kick 6 goals to get within 20 of Melbourne so its a free hit imo

True and being at Etihad there'll be no assistance from the weather for Melbourne to slow the game down.

Cons are Brisbane played in the wet, although it was pretty much over by 1Q time, Melbourne with fresh legs off the bye and a decent performance against Port.

 

[TheKanga]

Ive done some statistics and have come up with this formula:

When north are underdogs, get on.
When north are favourites, dont get on.

Pretty much, my heart has blinded me in past rounds when we are fav.
I'll be getting on GWS and the Dogs when we play them in the coming rounds

 

[TheKanga]

Well given they lost by 110 coming their last bye I think that is a fair assumption.

Actually
They played North in round 10 at the Cattery and won by 20, they had their bye a fortnight before that and played Freo away after it.
They were beaten pretty comprehensively.

 

[Zealbee]

5U on North Melbourne v Geelong @ 2.45 (Sportsbet)

 

[CamTinley]

Ive done some statistics and have come up with this formula:

When north are underdogs, get on.
When north are favourites, dont get on.

Yep, agree with that.

 

[Spads]

Round 18 has really shaken the odds up. Sydney, freo and hawks all appear to be overs. Very rare that you get good odds on the best three teams this late in the season.

 

[Spads]

I also think gold coast, the kangas and gws all represent good value.

 

[Punting Deals]

Good that the sportsbet special extends to this round.

Yeah that surprised me a bit. You think they'd be getting punished badly. Going to look into it later in the week and see what opportunities there are to take advantage of the promo against another bookie.

 

[Keystone agony]

$100 North @2.45 SU
$100 Brisbane @2.25 SU

For this round i also like the value in GWS and the bombers aswell.

My avoidable team ATM is Gold Coast. Ill also probably be getting on the crows by a fair margin but may wait for teams. Eagles will shutup shop you would think, if they havnt already done so. Crows could actually move to 6th place with a solid win and the Roos and Dons lose to the cats and Syd respectively.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Geelong since round 11

Sydney - Loss by 110pts
Carlton - Win by 5pts
St Kilda - Win by 104pts
Gold Coast - Loss by 40pts
Essendon - Win by 9pts
Western Bulldogs - Win by 13pts
Melbourne - Win by 68pts
GWS - Win by 7pts

So they are a very up and down side and only just doing enough, relying on some indivual brilliance of players like Stevie J or Selwood to get them the win.
At Etihad they very nearly dropped games against Carlton and Essendon, had no right to win those really.
I just get the feeling after bye they could come out and take it easy against North, who I like to think will be breathing fire after our capitulation against Carlton.
We could regain Wells from injury which would help, 50/50 at this stage though they might wait to bring him back against GWS.

A North fan calling another team inconsistent

We seem to be consistently fairly ordinary everywhere except at Geelong. I assume that's where the two big wins were? I would think North at the line is the play in that game but it's not really one you'd want to get too involved in unless you were feeling brave.

 

[Zealbee]

I also think gold coast, the kangas and gws all represent good value.

How do the Gold Coast represent value?

 

[TheKanga]

How do the Gold Coast represent value?

Agree i think Saints are value

 

[Keystone agony]

GC still havnt won a game without Gaz is that correct? Think saints midfield might be able to get on top with Lenny, Armitage and Montagna. However ill keep clear in this one.

 

[Keystone agony]

Im also liking the value the pies hold. Think they could cause a few problems for the powers defence. Expecting Reid and Elliot to much better 2nd up and also if they can get a luke ball or toovey back into the side that would help alot.

Port just seem so out of form and have been for some time now, they play away at the MCG and if pies lose this they are shot but if they win they are right back in it. Just another I see as a potential upset.

 

[Redacted Boner]

GC still havnt won a game without Gaz is that correct? Think saints midfield might be able to get on top with Lenny, Armitage and Montagna. However ill keep clear in this one.

Yeah Suns are 0-7 without Ablett.

 

[Atavistic]

Got a $200 bet at Sportsbet. Any ideas? I've been thinking about a Saints-Lions multi as I expect them to both come in a bit and then I can hedge.

 

[tibor]

Frem/Carl U167.5
Syd/Ess U173.5
Adel/WCE U180.5
Richmond/GWS O188.5
North/Geel U189.5
GC/Stk U182.5
Melb/Bris U165.5
Haw/WB U188.5

Edit: Added Brisbane SU 2.25 2u (sportsbet promo)