Strategy The case for a third tall forward

[yepits2020]

Key forwards are a different kettle of fish.

If Lobbe went down we'd play Hugh Minson or Fabian Deluca if he was available. Why? Because you need at least one big boy to serve as a human totem pole all day, banging in to the other team's totem pole and so on. It's just the way it is.

Butcher, in structural terms has something of a gold pass because he's 197cm. Sam Gray and Kane Mitchell aren't. They're dime-a-dozen smalls recruited literally as an afterthought.

Again I point to Sam Reid. Another negligible performance on stats, but Buddy and Tippo keep making hay while he doesn't shine as it were.

I'd pick Butcher on size alone. The benefits to Schulz and Westhoff would be worth it alone. If he snags one or two or creates a couple himself, bonus.

I am a fan of playing another tall, mainly because once Trengove was not available, Westhoff was used more in the back and ruck. I noted that did not happen as much against the Suns.
Put the argument the other way. What if our forward line was firing with Neade, Westhoff, Schultz, Butcher, Harvey and Wingard. If Neade goes down and Shaw was playing well, would he be brought in. Not in a month of Sundays. So why not the reverse?

 

[El_Scorcho]

Ok, based on that, doesn't it stand to reason that if Butcher isn't getting selected, the coaches have weighed that the structural benefits he brings are negated by his predicted output on the field?

Yep, that's exactly what they've done, and they've made a bad call. Sticking our fingers in our ears and hoping the problem goes away will cost us more the longer we leave it.

Eventually we're going to have to blood a guy and he's going to spend 20-50 games averaging 10 touches 3-4 marks and a goal a game, just like Butcher has. The later we leave it, the worse off we are.

 

[Hinkley Effect]

I never got the dropping of Butcher after the round 3 match either...

I was at the game. He took a big pack mark in the first quarter and bloody hit the post. He spent the day offering leads up on the wings and did make a few blues, but we had a poor output from about 15 of our 22 players that day. I definitely would not have had him as our worst or even bottom 5.

The next game was against a very weak Brisbane with a perfect weather day predicted. It was a given that we were going to win comfortably and that the bigger boys would have a field day as the big red head from brisbane was suspended for striking and their KPD consisted of some teenagers. Predictably, Westhoff kicked 3 and Schulz kicked 6 or 7. Gray came in for Butcher and kicked 3.

Would we be in a better position, both ladder wise and depth wise, if Butcher kicked 3 goals that day and not Gray? I definitely think we would be.

I still can't fathom that omission... I think it has been one of the blunders of the season. I can only think that there has been something behind the scenes or that Butcher did something terribly wrong in a training during the week leadup to the Brisbane match and has been out of favour since.

 

[Forzaport]

a) His selection wasn't undeserved. The only undeserved thing about Butcher's selection was his ommission after round 3.

b) KPPs need to play to develop. We have an enormous gulf between our 28+yo, 150 gamer established forwards (who were both heavily maligned as youngsters btw but were continually played), and our developing stock.

We are no closer to having an answer to our KPF woes than we were in round 1 (if anything we're further away). Playing Butcher at AFL level absolutely does him a favour in that it gives him a leg up in terms of development and shows that we believe in him.

I've posted before that he's never played more than 5 consecutive AFL games.

It's not just that we're too short. It's not just that we desperately need to develop a KPF. It's not just that Butcher deserves an extended run in the side like so many other players have had. It's not just that Schulz needs the support. It's not just that extra talls make us a more flexible side. It's not just that Butcher was performing perfectly well for a 20 game KPF. It's not just because he went back to the SANFL and made a big impact on the scoreboard straight away.

It's all of those things. Butcher being left out of the side for the last 18 weeks has been a bad decision for plenty of reasons.

That's a bit rich seeing as Hinkley's mantra is "you get what you deserve". Hinkley has conceded that we're too short. If Butcher deserved AFL selection, he'd be playing. There is so much more to KPP development than AFL time. In fact, I'd argue that AFL time is less critical these days as we effectively run an AFL system at the Magpies which should provide all our developing talls with the best possible opportunity to be AFL ready when they earn their call up.

No one is arguing we don't need to develop KPP talent. Stating the coaches made a bad call based on us needing a KPP and Butcher kicking a few cheap goals at SANFL level doesn't make it so.

 

[Forzaport]

Yep, that's exactly what they've done, and they've made a bad call. Sticking our fingers in our ears and hoping the problem goes away will cost us more the longer we leave it.

Eventually we're going to have to blood a guy and he's going to spend 20-50 games averaging 10 touches 3-4 marks and a goal a game, just like Butcher has. The later we leave it, the worse off we are.

Again, no one is burying their head in the dirt over this.

Eventually we will blood a young KPF that may have average stats but they will have earned their AFL selection. I wouldn't be surprised if Shaw plays a heap of AFL games next year.

 

[El_Scorcho]

As I've said plenty of times on this board, if someone wants to make the argument that the selection of Sam Gray over Butcher in round 4, and the subsequent selections of Gray and Mitchell since was the right decision in 2014 and going forward, I'd love to hear that argument.

Butcher would have been a better selection on so many levels.

The coaches made a bad call.

 

[Zakk Wylde]

Relentless Scorch... LOL

 

[El_Scorcho]

Again, no one is burying their head in the dirt over this.

Eventually we will blood a young KPF that may have average stats but they will have earned their AFL selection. I wouldn't be surprised if Shaw plays a heap of AFL games next year.

He should, it would be an absolute disaster if we persisted with the current set up.

But he hasn't shown more than Butcher at this stage. If he gets selected next year it's far more likely going to be because the coaching staff bite the bullet and correct their mistake, not because he is reaching the outrageous standards that people on this board have set for a KPF to be selected.

For all the talking up of Shaw and talking down of Butcher, Butch is averaging more goals a game at SANFL level in 2014.

 

[Macca19]

So what do Brisbane get out of last night's little experiment?? They get a player who starts the 2014/25 preseason thinking - I am good enough to play the game at the highest level. There is nothing like confidence. If you could bottle it and turn it into a little white pill you would become the richest man on earth. Oh all because someone was prepared to make a risky selection.

Yep. Worked wonders for Daniel Stewart in 2011 after his 4 goal game vs Richmond in the last round of 2010 and Butchers confidence has always been through the roof after his stunning end to 2011.

 

[Macca19]

Its an argument with no definitive answer or end really. Butcher deserved to get dropped in Round 4. Did he deserve to come back in at some point? Probably yes. But he never made himself a must make selection. Now we are saying we should have played him in the side regardless of form? How many games where his opponent gets 20 touches and 13 marks, whilst he has game high clangers, no tackles and no goals do you say is acceptable before he is dropped? he had every chance to cement himself in the side last year on the verge of finals and he got literally 1 kick in 2 games. We've seen in the SANFL this year that his better games are intertwined by games where he literally gets 1 or 2 kicks. There is no back up of consistent form that he can point to and say 'there, I should have been picked'.

 

[Magpiespower]

Its an argument with no definitive answer or end really.

Three topics I steer well clear of for own sanity:

- Climate change
- Middle East
- John Butcher

 

[El_Scorcho]

Its an argument with no definitive answer or end really.

We'd have an answer right now if we'd given him a run.

Butcher deserved to get dropped in Round 4.

Players who are far less important to our side have had worse games and kept their place.

Did he deserve to come back in at some point? Probably yes.

Agree.

But he never made himself a must make selection. Now we are saying we should have played him in the side regardless of form?

We played Renouf regardless of form. The biggest disagreement in this thread is about how much people are willing to allow structure to fall by the wayside before we stop picking purely on form.

How many games where his opponent gets 20 touches and 13 marks, whilst he has game high clangers, no tackles and no goals do you say is acceptable before he is dropped? he had every chance to cement himself in the side last year on the verge of finals and he got literally 1 kick in 2 games. We've seen in the SANFL this year that his better games are intertwined by games where he literally gets 1 or 2 kicks. There is no back up of consistent form that he can point to and say 'there, I should have been picked'.

He's a 20 game KPF who has battled confidence and injury issues. He's over the injury issues, touch wood, but backing him in might have helped his confidence.

We'll probably never know.

 

[Jello_B]

Butcher may have an attitude/ culture problem. I can't explain it any other way. If that's the case I'm happy for him not to be in the team.

 

[Tibbs]

....
Butcher would have been a better selection on so many levels.
The coaches made a bad call.

I normally try to avoid this circular debate ... but that statement is just ridiculous! We pay the coaches as professionals with the best inside knowledge of the squad, developers of the tactics etc, to make the hard calls. To blatantly state they made a wrong call is idiotic, when there is absolutely ZERO proof to the contrary!! You know NOTHING of what happened internally that week! If Butcher goes and blazes away in the SANFL, then sure go ahead ... but he has been sub-par at best, and has now slipped behind Shaw & Harvey in the pecking order! No other team in the top six heading into playing finals would even entertain playing a Butcher in a similar situation. Not a top side? ... Sure go ahead and play him for development. Otherwise, he has to go back & SMASH the opposition in the SANFL to earn a spot - something he hasnt even come close to!

Hell, dont get me wrong, I SOOOO want him to play, the team needs him there for structure, BUT he has to deliver something more than a contest! Neade can do that! If Butcher is to play AFL for Port, he HAS to prove his ability in the SANFL first ... both in body & mind!!

I am loyal to our coaches, and feel they are in a better position than any of us to make that call ... Happy to wait on their call for the Butch to play!

 

[Andre]

Three topics I steer well clear of for own sanity:

- Climate change
- Middle East
- John Butcher

If John Butcher got games there wouldn't be so much hot air, causing those in the Middle East to be so short tempered.

#PickButchForWorldPeace.

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

As I've said plenty of times on this board, if someone wants to make the argument that the selection of Sam Gray over Butcher in round 4, and the subsequent selections of Gray and Mitchell since was the right decision in 2014 and going forward, I'd love to hear that argument.

Butcher would have been a better selection on so many levels.

The coaches made a bad call.

This is the only argument that needs to be made re butcher or shaw....

I would even put impey with gray and mitchell

 

[Andre]

I would even put impey with gray and mitchell

Impey is a small defender. Was correctly picked and stayed in the side. Don't conflate his selection with the other two.

Mitchell and especially S. Gray were the wrong choices.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Not really sure what point I'm trying to make, if I'm trying to make one at all, but here is how Mason has performed with and without Butch up forward this year:

Round 8 - Mason's first game back
Butcher - 10 touches, 5 goals 2 behinds
Shaw - 11 touches, 0 goals 1 behind

Round 9
Butcher - 10 touches, 1 goal 3 behinds
Shaw - 11 touches, 1 goal 0 behinds

Round 10
Butcher - 10 touches, 3 goals 2 behinds
Shaw - 16 touches, 6 goals 1 behind

Round 11
Butcher - 10 touches, 1 goal 3 behinds
Shaw - 16 touches, 3 goals 1 behind

Round 12
Butcher - 13 touches, 0 goal 1 behind
Shaw - 11 touches, 3 goals 0 behinds

Round 13
Butcher - 11 touches, 2 goals 1 behind
Shaw - 9 touches, 1 goal 1 behind

Round 14
Butcher - 6 touches, 0 goals 1 behind
Shaw - 15 touches, 2 goals

Round 15
Butcher - DNP
Shaw - 11 touches, 1 goal 2 behinds

Round 16
Butcher - DNP
Shaw - 8 touches, 1 goal 1 behind

Round 17
Butcher - Played back most of the game
Shaw - 12 touches, 1 goal 1 behind

So with Butcher out of the forward line and Shaw having to take the number one defender, he hasn't kicked more than a goal in a game. It's a small sample size, and form is also a factor, but Shaw has definitely performed at his best when he's had Butch up there to help him out.

 

[Adz2332]

i have been banging on about just that, Butch takes the number 1 defender every week! so his out put has to be measured mor highly then Shaw and harvey who get number 2 and 3 in the chain. its that simple!

 

[Forzaport]

As I've said plenty of times on this board, if someone wants to make the argument that the selection of Sam Gray over Butcher in round 4, and the subsequent selections of Gray and Mitchell since was the right decision in 2014 and going forward, I'd love to hear that argument.

Butcher would have been a better selection on so many levels.

The coaches made a bad call.

You're assuming S.Gray actually was selected over Butcher. It's far more likely that S.Gray was a replacement for Wingard or Monfries and Butcher lost his spot to O'Shea. In fact, S.Gray's first 3 games were in the absence of Monfries. Once Monfries returned, S.Gray was dropped.

Mitchell wasn't selected until Round 8 and his first month of football at AFL level was good. Enough for him to hold his spot. Meanwhile, Butcher is the only AFL listed player to not be named in the best players once at SANFL level in 2014. Clurey (4B, 15G), Shaw (2B, 11G) and even Harvey (1B, 19G) have managed it.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I normally try to avoid this circular debate ... but that statement is just ridiculous! We pay the coaches as professionals with the best inside knowledge of the squad, developers of the tactics etc, to make the hard calls. To blatantly state they made a wrong call is idiotic, when there is absolutely ZERO proof to the contrary!! You know NOTHING of what happened internally that week! If Butcher goes and blazes away in the SANFL, then sure go ahead ... but he has been sub-par at best, and has now slipped behind Shaw & Harvey in the pecking order! No other team in the top six heading into playing finals would even entertain playing a Butcher in a similar situation. Not a top side? ... Sure go ahead and play him for development. Otherwise, he has to go back & SMASH the opposition in the SANFL to earn a spot - something he hasnt even come close to!

Hell, dont get me wrong, I SOOOO want him to play, the team needs him there for structure, BUT he has to deliver something more than a contest! Neade can do that! If Butcher is to play AFL for Port, he HAS to prove his ability in the SANFL first ... both in body & mind!!

I am loyal to our coaches, and feel they are in a better position than any of us to make that call ... Happy to wait on their call for the Butch to play!

Even the best coaches aren't infallible. I'm not saying they are bad coaches or that I don't want them to coach anymore, or even that i'd swap them with anyone else if I could. I love our coaching team.

But IMO, they made a bad call by leaving Butcher out of the side for the last 18 rounds. That call has been a net detriment to our football team now, and moving forward.

Have a look at Sam Reid's stats in 2012. A year where his side not only played finals, but won the flag.

By round 2 of the 2012 season, Sam Reid had played more games of AFL football than John Butcher has right now. They were taken in the same draft.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pg-sydney-swans--sam-reid-1?year=2012

You'll notice a 5 game stretch early on where he didn't crack 10 disposals, and in the last 4 of that stretch of 5, he didn't kick a goal.

That's 4 games in a row with 7 or less disposals and 0 goals. He kept his place in the side.

He missed a couple of games late in the season before being brought back for the 2nd to last minor round game, and played every final. He kept his place for the GF after a Prelim final where he got 4 touches and 0 goals.

He was persisted with because, like us, Sydney needed to develop a forward. He had several really awful patches of football and even in 2014, can't be relied upon to regularly hit the scoreboard or stay involved in the game for long periods. This is a developing KPF at the best side in the league. He has been given 50 games of AFL experience more than Butcher.

He has been retained in the side because Sydney understand the need for development, and they understand the need for structure. Yes, early on in his career, Sydney didn't have great talls to take his spot. But now they have the best tall forwardline in the league, and he's still getting a spot every week. We have the same need for KPF development and the same need for an extra tall to structure us up. Where as Reid has been persisted with through highs and lows, Butcher has never played more than 5 games consecutively. Reid will get close to his 100th game next season, while Butcher will start the season as a 23 gamer.

The coaches made a bad call.

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

Impey is a small defender. Was correctly picked and stayed in the side. Don't conflate his selection with the other two.

Mitchell and especially S. Gray were the wrong choices.

I was more talking about afl rawness not position

Isnt that the excuse?

I like impey he does some real good things and can see why we picked him....but at times he has been caught way out of his depth but....I am happy hinkley rolled the dice on him and he will be better for it....

Just roll the dice hinks is all I am asking ...if they fail they fail...

 

[El_Scorcho]

You're assuming S.Gray actually was selected over Butcher. It's far more likely that S.Gray was a replacement for Wingard or Monfries and Butcher lost his spot to O'Shea. In fact, S.Gray's first 3 games were in the absence of Monfries. Once Monfries returned, S.Gray was dropped.

Mitchell wasn't selected until Round 8 and his first month of football at AFL level was good. Enough for him to hold his spot. Meanwhile, Butcher is the only AFL listed player to not be named in the best players once at SANFL level in 2014. Clurey (4B, 15G), Shaw (2B, 11G) and even Harvey (1B, 19G) have managed it.

Yeah i'll agree that O'Shea replaced Butcher in round 4.

My argument is that the 22nd picked player in the side could have been replaced by Butcher for quite a significant net gain over the course of the season.

Grey or Mitchell (or both) played in rounds 4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17 and 20. Round 9 was a bye.

If we'd played him all the way through, we wouldn't have had to bring Paul Stewart in as a psuedo KPF in round 18 and 19 as we'd have already had KPF cover.

I couldn't find someone who Butcher should have been selected ahead of in round 7 or 21. Every other round we should have selected him, and I called for his selection in every selection thread in that time.

The best players are what they are and shouldn't necessarily line up with selection, given not everybody in the team plays the same position. Butcher kicked 2 bags of 5 early on and was averaging 3+ goals at SANFL level for something like 13 weeks before his recent dip in form. He was kicking multiple goals and contributing week in week out. I'd love to see to see a graph showing how often someone kicks 5 goals and isn't named in the best. I'd imagine it's not often.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I was more talking about afl rawness not position

Isnt that the excuse?

I like impey he does some real good things and can see why we picked him....but at times he has been caught way out of his depth but....I am happy hinkley rolled the dice on him and he will be better for it....

Just roll the dice hinks is all I am asking ...if they fail they fail...

I think Impey will be pretty important over the next couple of weeks, especially against Freo. If he can do the job he did on Ballantyne again it will go a long way to helping us win that game.

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

I think Impey will be pretty important over the next couple of weeks, especially against Freo. If he can do the job he did on Ballantyne again it will go a long way to helping us win that game.

Thats my whole point....we persisted with impey and he made himself important...