Where are St Kilda at?

[Mat Mann]

hard calls need to be made on our list this year, Siposs, Warkworth, sanders, Wright, White, Saad, Fisher, Minchington, Lee, Schneider, Simpkin all candidates in the next two years to be gone, some not capable, some have already been passed by other players, some retiring.

The biggest problem I see is we still need 2/3 years of quality drafting, and this years draft isn't great and we already have CG Melb Ess Carl and Bris below us this year with North, Freo and Hawthorn all about to enter rebuilds, will all impact us being able to strengthen areas of the team we need to

 

[The Punter]

FWIW I happen to agree with Niall, but it's conditional on turning the culture around at Melbourne, which Roos hasn't been able to do in two short years.

This is easier said than done. Also, Roos is primarily responsible for the style of play Melbourne play, and it doesn't stand up. In both losses to St Kilda, Melbourne have had fewer kicks, many, many more handballs, fewer tackles and fewer inside 50s. And they have one of the best young KPFs in the game who kicked 5 against St Kilda last time.

At the very least, an (rare in this thread) relating it back to the original post, the answer is probably "ahead of the five teams they are ahead of on the ladder". And that includes Melbourne.

 

[underthestars]

Aside from Roo, the one player we need to find a replacement for in the coming years is Dempster. Game after game he is our defensive lynchpin. A criminally underrated champion.
We are a few top top level players short still, given who will retire in the next two years. Until yesterday I had wished we'd taken picks 4 and 7 for 1, but Paddy didn't just look like he'll be a player - he looked like he could dominate - whether he will is another thing, but a very, very pleasing game.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Database skills are obviously above muppet status, I just think your interpretation could be a little more solid than 'the older team usually wins' over and over...... and over, particularly when applying it to a team like St Kilda over and over with such an obvious hole in the middle of the list.

Nobody in the footy media uses average age, therefore it doesn't have widespread credibility. The coaches only occasionally cite differences in games played (e.g. Barker this week), which aren't quite as useable in the longer term due to startup teams. However any data tables I post are to support an opinion or answer a question. Usually some context is provided without going overboard; most readers go cold at slabs of text, and I don't write well enough to keep people engaged for long.

Would've posted the figures whether or not they painted a rosy picture. Obviously you don't feel they're relevant to St.Kilda's situation. Fine, I'll refrain from posting them in this thread in future.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Aside from Roo, the one player we need to find a replacement for in the coming years is Dempster. Game after game he is our defensive lynchpin. A criminally underrated champion.
We are a few top top level players short still, given who will retire in the next two years. Until yesterday I had wished we'd taken picks 4 and 7 for 1, but Paddy didn't just look like he'll be a player - he looked like he could dominate - whether he will is another thing, but a very, very pleasing game.

A lot of people including myself thought the Dogs would go backwards this year losing Gia, Cooney, Griffen, etc however they've shown that not to be the case.

The important thing from a list manager point of view is to stagger the retirements so the effect is not felt in one go. The Dogs are doing that with Boyd, Picken, Murphy and Morris still part of their best 22.

St Kilda has already replaced a number of senior players however it won't be certain who they are until the senior players have retired.

I've read that St Kilda is heavily reliant on senior players. Gilbert, Schneider and Ray are in and out of the team for whatever reason and Fisher is nowhere near the player he was a few years ago.

I expect Fisher, Ray and Schneider to retire at years end which leaves Joey, Gilbert, Roo and Dempster as the older players on our list and Armo, Geary and Delaney (similar age to Dickson, Wood, Crameri, Grant) the only other three on our list born before 1990 however they aren't old by any means.

Next year will be interesting to see if St Kilda stall in their progress or move forward like the Dogs. The age demographics will be very similar.

 

[Ricmel]

A lot of people including myself thought the Dogs would go backwards this year losing Gia, Cooney, Griffen, etc however they've shown that not to be the case.

Next year will be interesting to see if St Kilda stall in their progress or move forward like the Dogs. The age demographics will be very similar.

I expect that Saints will float around 6 - 8 wins next couple of years. I really think expecting this group to rapidly mature is unrealistic.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

I expect that Saints will float around 6 - 8 wins next couple of years. I really think expecting this group to rapidly mature is unrealistic.

I actually think we will improve. The improvement of the young players will out way the loss of guys like Fisher and Schneider who at this point in their careers aren't anywhere near their best. Sure Schneider has been getting plenty of disposals but his footy smarts have taken a real hit this year.

We probably need a couple more mids to step up to help Armo, Joey and Steven. Dunstan is a handy pinch hitter but for him to take the next step he needs to find 25+ disposals a game. Acres is the guy I think will definitely step up as soon as he gets more luck on the injury front.

 

[Ricmel]

I actually think we will improve.
.

I do too but I don't think it will be linear. And I think Saints supporters need to be more realistic. As we sit right now - today - take out Roo, Dempster, Joey and Fisher and I think we have just 2 verifiable A Graders - Armitage and Steven. Of the group of youngsters we have, none are close to A grade and right now you could not put your house on any of them becoming A Grade, certainly not in the next 12 months.

So whilst the signs are good, the results probably above expectations - a lot needs to go right from here even to get into the bottom of the 8. You have to keep in context that the teams we are going to contending with - GWS, GC, Port, Dogs, Pies - right now have a lot more young players at or on the cusp of A grade status than we do.

My guess is next year will be another year of getting games into the kids we think are good, probably beat a few teams around us but also likely saying goodbye to a few vets.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

I do too but I don't think it will be linear. And I think Saints supporters need to be more realistic. As we sit right now - today - take out Roo, Dempster, Joey and Fisher and I think we have just 2 verifiable A Graders - Armitage and Steven. Of the group of youngsters we have, none are close to A grade and right now you could not put your house on any of them becoming A Grade, certainly not in the next 12 months.

So whilst the signs are good, the results probably above expectations - a lot needs to go right from here even to get into the bottom of the 8. You have to keep in context that the teams we are going to contending with - GWS, GC, Port, Dogs, Pies - right now have a lot more young players at or on the cusp of A grade status than we do.

My guess is next year will be another year of getting games into the kids we think are good, probably beat a few teams around us but also likely saying goodbye to a few vets.

For players to become A graders they first need to be given the opportunity. Armo wouldn't be considered A grade if Lenny was still around but since Lenny has retired Armo has stepped up and in the words of Richo become 'the man'. Same with Josh Bruce. He was given opportunity on the back of trading Stanley and Roo being in and out of the side at the start of the year. Roberton is seriously underrated and his form has come on the back of Gilbert and Fisher being in and out of the side. I'm confident there's a number of A graders on our list they just need to be given the opportunity to develop and then to step up in place of others.

 

[Falchoon]

Would've posted the figures whether or not they painted a rosy picture. Obviously you don't feel they're relevant to St.Kilda's situation.

As I said, i'd like to see an insight based on deviation from prime.

eg take the average age of the top 2 or 4 teams over the last 20 years and call that prime. Then measure the standard deviation by player away from that. I think that will give you the answer to the Saints situation in particular, as opposed to 'their average age should have them in the top 4-6' & 'they should beat younger teams'

What you'll probably find with the Saints is the age profile of the top end is that of a top 4 team, but the bottom end miles off, giving a standard deviation of that of a bottom 8 side.

Then you could surmise that the Saints won't close the gap in the short term as the top end deviation grows and is replaced by 18 year old's, more correctly saying the Saints won't contend until they get a quorum of talent coming through together at the prime age for an AFL team.

It may not paint a rosy picture, but that was never the alternative argument , the argument is that average age is too simple a measure to attach to the saints situation. The Saints need 4 or 5 years of building in order to push for another sustained run, absolutely, but some of us would rather Roberton play alongside Dempster until he develops into a consistent leader for the next generation, McCartin alongside Riewoldt, Billings and Montagna etc etc as opposed to throwing out the baby to satisfy a number.

When Judd joined Carlton there was hardly a player above the age of 24, the club for all of it's culture had no link between era's. Melbourne threw away their top end, the Saints absolutely need to link their culture changers with the next era, not get rid of them to tick a box. It's no surprise that Dal Santo and Goddard walked into leadership roles at their new clubs, whilst players of the same era at Melbourne and Carlton are Brock Mclean, Travis Johnstone, Colin Sylvia, Brent Moloney, Fevola, Waite etc.

You and I are on the same wave length in terms of need to build/years of pain, I come from the optimist side, you the pessimist side. I merely think there are some insights to be had over and above the usual take it or leave it stuff, obviously over and above the roundabout of trolling the trollers.

Fine, I'll refrain from posting them in this thread in future.

Don't be so sensitive, come back with your bat and ball, we'll let you bat

 

[Dogsman16]

I do too but I don't think it will be linear. And I think Saints supporters need to be more realistic. As we sit right now - today - take out Roo, Dempster, Joey and Fisher and I think we have just 2 verifiable A Graders - Armitage and Steven. Of the group of youngsters we have, none are close to A grade and right now you could not put your house on any of them becoming A Grade, certainly not in the next 12 months.

So whilst the signs are good, the results probably above expectations - a lot needs to go right from here even to get into the bottom of the 8. You have to keep in context that the teams we are going to contending with - GWS, GC, Port, Dogs, Pies - right now have a lot more young players at or on the cusp of A grade status than we do.

My guess is next year will be another year of getting games into the kids we think are good, probably beat a few teams around us but also likely saying goodbye to a few vets.

Bruce is most certainly A grade IMO.

Saints are tracking well if they could pinch lets say 2 more wins then I'd think saints fans would be very happy with that.

Forward line doesn't need to be touched, even post Riewoldt (he doesn't look like slowing down either) the forward line looks in great shape.

Bruce, McCartin and Billings are almost certain A graders (bruce is already) and with support of lonie, sinclair, membrey (after Riewoldt retires thats probably when he gets a full time spot), its in very capable hands. The only issue with it is that theirs probably no room for a resting ruck (Hickey doesn't really fit), that probably means Bruce has to do some ruck work to support longer. It terms of scoring firepower though there is certainly plenty of good players their to kick a winning score.

Midfield needs at least 2 more young A graders coming through. St Kilda probably haven't won a game this season that hasn't contained big numbers from one or several of Steven, Armitage and Montagna and I can't recall a really dominate midfield performance from an under 24 mid. Steven and Armitage have got plenty of footy left in them so thats a good start but theirs probably the need for another inside contested beast and bit more class (someone who can rack up big numbers and provide run and dash).

Defence is solid in terms of rebounders but 1 - 2 more KPD are needed. Goddard is probably a lock for one of those tall spots, Delaney might carry another spot for a couple more years until the young defenders mature, but Dempster is still one of the saints more important players. His role needs to be filled too.

I think the most important part of the ground is the forward line, really good forward setups can still kick winning scores even if supply isn't great in quality or quantity and the saints have that in good order. Mids and defenders a must.

 

[Zgope1]

Bruce is most certainly A grade IMO.

Saints are tracking well if they could pinch lets say 2 more wins then I'd think saints fans would be very happy with that.

Forward line doesn't need to be touched, even post Riewoldt (he doesn't look like slowing down either) the forward line looks in great shape.

Bruce, McCartin and Billings are almost certain A graders (bruce is already) and with support of lonie, sinclair, membrey (after Riewoldt retires thats probably when he gets a full time spot), its in very capable hands. The only issue with it is that theirs probably no room for a resting ruck (Hickey doesn't really fit), that probably means Bruce has to do some ruck work to support longer. It terms of scoring firepower though there is certainly plenty of good players their to kick a winning score.

Midfield needs at least 2 more young A graders coming through. St Kilda probably haven't won a game this season that hasn't contained big numbers from one or several of Steven, Armitage and Montagna and I can't recall a really dominate midfield performance from an under 24 mid. Steven and Armitage have got plenty of footy left in them so thats a good start but theirs probably the need for another inside contested beast and bit more class (someone who can rack up big numbers and provide run and dash).

Defence is solid in terms of rebounders but 1 - 2 more KPD are needed. Goddard is probably a lock for one of those tall spots, Delaney might carry another spot for a couple more years until the young defenders mature, but Dempster is still one of the saints more important players. His role needs to be filled too.

I think the most important part of the ground is the forward line, really good forward setups can still kick winning scores even if supply isn't great in quality or quantity and the saints have that in good order. Mids and defenders a must.

Great post I reckon. With a forward line like theirs the Saints will believe they can hurt teams as early as next year. I think their coach can capitalise on it too.

A couple of super classy mid will make them frightening considering how tough they are at the ball. Having said that, it normally does take a little time to readjust after being a big bodied contested team to losing a bit of that for some outside class. They will sort it out though.

Agree on the key backs too. Luckily if worse comes to worse they can land a gun Easton Wood/ Sean Dempster type in a couple of years

 

[The Punter]

There is certainly planning going into replacing Dempster and Fisher in the backline. Whether that planning will be successful remains to be seen.

I absolutely agree we are still two top level midfielders short, but the level below we're completely set. And you never know what those guys will eventually become if they play in a significantly deep midfield (see Priddis, M., Montagna. L.).

 

[Ricmel]

Bruce is most certainly A grade IMO.

Bruce, McCartin and Billings are almost certain A graders (bruce is already) and with support of lonie, sinclair, membrey (after Riewoldt retires thats probably when he gets a full time spot), its in very capable hands.
.

First, my post was about who is A Grade now. Who might be A grade at the end of 16 or 17.....who knows.

Bruce may be A Grade if he repeats this yera next year. He's been a good target and kicked a few goals but 16 games does not make an A grader. Yes he has good potential. From what I have seen of Billings, Lonie, Sinclair, Newnes....they could all get there but they also may not, I think they are all solid but just 50/50 on whether they will take the next step.

I don't think the improvement will be linear, even from player to player. This is a 15 - 10 team and until this core of young players hits 23 - 24, I don't think we will see the sort of leap in results that some are starting to expect will happen next year.

 

[Murraj1966]

Get a good few mids and defenders in the upcoming drafts and maybe a few expansion club wantaways who are looking for consistent gametime and i think we could really get going places.

Come on Kelly the teamsheet is waiting there with a spot for you...

 

[Dazb86]

A lot of people including myself thought the Dogs would go backwards this year losing Gia, Cooney, Griffen, etc however they've shown that not to be the case.

The important thing from a list manager point of view is to stagger the retirements so the effect is not felt in one go. The Dogs are doing that with Boyd, Picken, Murphy and Morris still part of their best 22.

St Kilda has already replaced a number of senior players however it won't be certain who they are until the senior players have retired.

I've read that St Kilda is heavily reliant on senior players. Gilbert, Schneider and Ray are in and out of the team for whatever reason and Fisher is nowhere near the player he was a few years ago.

I expect Fisher, Ray and Schneider to retire at years end which leaves Joey, Gilbert, Roo and Dempster as the older players on our list and Armo and Delaney (similar age to Dickson, Wood, Crameri, Grant) the only other two on our list born before 1990 however they aren't old by any means.

Next year will be interesting to see if St Kilda stall in their progress or move forward like the Dogs. The age demographics will be very similar.

Had we stuck with the previous coach we would have almost certainly gone backwards on last year in my opinion. The new game plan is almost entirely responsible for our improvement this year. Unless your coach changed something dramatically I can't see you guys having a huge change in output on the back of one extra pre-season. I see you guys making slow and steady progress.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The Saints need 4 or 5 years of building in order to push for another sustained run, absolutely, but some of us would rather Roberton play alongside Dempster until he develops into a consistent leader for the next generation, McCartin alongside Riewoldt, Billings and Montagna etc etc as opposed to throwing out the baby to satisfy a number.

That's just it, no club is run to satisfy a number. The number merely describes the situation.

Average age is transient over time, e.g. even GC and GWS would not be considered "young" teams by 1960's standards. It's more useful when comparing teams with their contemporaries.

All I've said is St.Kilda is being largely sustained by its veterans. I understand full well that supporters invariably like to focus on their club's youth during rebuilding - it lowers expectations and makes the journey more enjoyable.

I don't have any particular axe to grind against St.Kilda, though a few years back I enjoyed arguing with supporters who were in post-Lyon denial. Youth bring hope, and things are definitely looking up for the Saints.

The bat and ball were picked up because you were so dismissive.

 

[Murraj1966]

Had we stuck with the previous coach we would have almost certainly gone backwards on last year in my opinion. The new game plan is almost entirely responsible for our improvement this year. Unless your coach changed something dramatically I can't see you guys having a huge change in output on the back of one extra pre-season. I see you guys making slow and steady progress.

15th to 10th to 3rd in 2002/3/4 it can happen very quickly

 

[aussierulesrules]

Great post I reckon. With a forward line like theirs the Saints will believe they can hurt teams as early as next year. I think their coach can capitalise on it too.

A couple of super classy mid will make them frightening considering how tough they are at the ball. Having said that, it normally does take a little time to readjust after being a big bodied contested team to losing a bit of that for some outside class. They will sort it out though.

Agree on the key backs too. Luckily if worse comes to worse they can land a gun Easton Wood/ Sean Dempster type in a couple of years

I think we already might have "our Easton Wood", in Daniel McKenzie, who is likewise exceptional overhead and has already taken a number of extremely strong (including pack) overhead marks at full stretch, going back with the flight and so-on, at both VFL and AFL level so far this year.

There are very big wraps on him internally apparently and given his huge tank and speed he may of course end up on a wing, or in the midfield, but if not then I think he'll slot in down back very easily and be someone who takes a lot of intercept marks and also gives us a lot of drive from back there, with his speed, elite agility and raking left foot.

Another option there could be Brodie Murdoch, who is also exceptionally strong overhead and is a really good size (at 188cm and built like a tank), but with good speed and endurance. I've liked what I've seen from him in his spells down back for us and he also had a 38 possession game at VFL level last year down back. He is another one who may end up in the midfield (as a "big bodied inside mid"), but if not then I could definitely see him slotting in across HB and being really good at intercepting and rebounding. Like McKenzie, he also has a raking left foot and probably an even better one. It is like a rocket. Needs to get on top of his lingering back issues that have plagued his last two years and preseasons though.

With Roberton and Savage and others like Newnes, Webster, McKenzie and Murdoch all looking like being good enough to play down back successfully at AFL level I think our backline is looking pretty good long term on the most part, just needing someone better than Delaney for FB and maybe someone for that 3rd tall role, if Lee doesn't prove good enough for it.

 

[Ricmel]

With Roberton and Savage and others like Newnes, Webster, McKenzie and Murdoch all looking like being good enough to play down back successfully at AFL level I think our backline is looking pretty good long term on the most part, just needing someone better than Delaney for FB and maybe someone for that 3rd tall role, if Lee doesn't prove good enough for it.

I'm with you on this. People keep saying we need a KPD. Maybe it would be nice to have another but I actually think our back line will be OK (Dempster will be hard to replace though).

What stands out to me like the proverbials is our lack of midfield class and speed. To me, Saints must target 2 or 3 pacey, classy midfield prospects this year and next.

 

[DanWA]

The Saints are on their road to recovery after the Ross Lyon destruction.

Rolling the Pies was awesome

I really think they need to recruit a replacement or addition for Dempster. Also some extra speed in the midfield. Then consider a replacement for Riewoldt

 

[aussierulesrules]

What stands out to me like the proverbials is our lack of midfield class and speed. To me, Saints must target 2 or 3 pacey, classy midfield prospects this year and next.

I have no doubt that we will (I imagine we'll have a big crack at Whitfield and Kelly next year if they don't re-sign with GWS in the meantime), but I also have no doubt that when the likes of Billings, Acres, Sinclair, Lonie, McKenzie and Templeton start to spend more time there it will start to look a lot classier (all of them have class to varying degrees) and quick (McKenzie and Eli in particular have good linebreaking speed and Acres can break the lines well too, with his long strides that eat up the ground). If Murdoch gets his body right and ends up in our midfield he also has a serious weapon of a left foot and is considerably quicker than the likes of Dunstan and Ross.

At the moment pretty much none of them are playing midfield, so it's no surprise that it is looking a bit ploddish outside of Steven and Montagna.

 

[Sainter3and7]

Nobody in the footy media uses average age, therefore it doesn't have widespread credibility. The coaches only occasionally cite differences in games played (e.g. Barker this week), which aren't quite as useable in the longer term due to startup teams. However any data tables I post are to support an opinion or answer a question. Usually some context is provided without going overboard; most readers go cold at slabs of text, and I don't write well enough to keep people engaged for long.

Would've posted the figures whether or not they painted a rosy picture. Obviously you don't feel they're relevant to St.Kilda's situation. Fine, I'll refrain from posting them in this thread in future.

I've enjoyed looking at your data, actually. Thanks for the hard work that must have taken.

 

[gillo94]

Saints IMO need to target a fullback
Maybe Carlise would be good fit trade 2nd and 3rd round pick to Bombers

Maybe draft one is another option

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Saints IMO need to target a fullback
Maybe Carlise would be good fit trade 2nd and 3rd round pick to Bombers

Maybe draft one is another option

Aren't you blokes into him?