AFL R5

[jefffff34]

Brisbane vs Richmond
2-3, 0.73 units down

Collingwood vs North Melbourne
3-2, 1.25 units up

Sydney vs Fremantle
1-1-0, 0.1 units up

West Coast vs Port Adelaide
3-1, 5.52 units up

Essendon vs St Kilda
2-1, 0.97 units up

Sunday bets
Adelaide vs GWS bets
Greene to beat Douglas for disposals @ $2.12 - 28-18 - WIN
Cameron to beat Jenkins for goals @ $2.05 - 2-4 - LOSS
Coniglio to beat Jaensch for DT @ $1.88 - 115-127 - LOSS
Podsiadly to score 3 or more goals @ $4.00 - 1 - LOSS
Greene to have 30 or more disposals @ $5.40 - 28 - LOSS

1-4, 2.88 units down

Melbourne vs Gold Coast bets
Swallow to beat Tyson for disposals @ $1.90 - 18-13 - WIN
Viney to beat Watts for DT @ $2.10 - 72-43 - WIN
Cross to have 25 or more disposals @ $2.20 - 21 - LOSS

2-1, 1 unit up

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton bets
Cooney to beat Gibbs for DT @ $1.95 - 57-111 - LOSS
Murphy to have 25 or more disposals @ $2.20 - 28 - WIN
Cooney to have 30 or more disposals @ $7.40 - 15 - LOSS

1-2, 0.8 units down

Round bets todate
15-1-14, 4.43 units up, 14.77 ROI

Monday bets
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Kelly to have more disposals than Lewis @ $2.00
Mitchell to have 30 or more disposals @ $2.40
Bartel to win his most disposals group @ $9.00 (vs Duncan, Enright, Mackie, Hodge, Hill, Smith, Suckling)
Johnson to kick 4 or more goals @ $11.00

Winning round at least.

 

[Anzac16]

Had another losing bet that I placed today when I was out.

1U - Gold Coast 1st Qtr Line -4.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Geelong vs Hawthorn

1U - Wire to Wire Any Other Result @ $2.05 (Sportsbet)
1U - Grant Birchall > 82.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Sam Mitchell > 102.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Since the 2008 GF, 9-3 matches have had lead changes at the end of each quarter. Worth a punt at those odds especially with the way these teams have been playing this year. Birchall has had one bad score this year, but covered the line easily in the other 3 games. Since 2011 he is 4-3 at this line. Backing him in. Mitchell has gone 2-1 at this line this year with the exception being against Rocky in R1. Since 2011 has gone 5-2 at this line.

Still tempted by Either Team Under 15.5. Might throw a unit on that tomorrow.

 

[danielgb123]

Liking the following

Roili < 85.5 DT - would have preferred this to have been 90, but I'm confident he'll go under 86.

Selwood > 110.5 DT - having another brilliant season, should clear this easily if he plays to his usual standards

Burgoyne > Kelly Disposals - I don't back Burgoyne often, but I think he should cover Kelly

Thoughts?

 

[jaymasha]

Liking the following

Roili < 85.5 DT - would have preferred this to have been 90, but I'm confident he'll go under 86.

Selwood > 110.5 DT - having another brilliant season, should clear this easily if he plays to his usual standards

Burgoyne > Kelly Disposals - I don't back Burgoyne often, but I think he should cover Kelly

Thoughts?

I'd go Kelly over Burgoyne, but that's just me. The others look good though


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Quite Ironic]

Had another losing bet that I placed today when I was out.

1U - Gold Coast 1st Qtr Line -4.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Geelong vs Hawthorn

1U - Wire to Wire Any Other Result @ $2.05 (Sportsbet)
1U - Grant Birchall > 82.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Sam Mitchell > 102.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Since the 2008 GF, 9-3 matches have had lead changes at the end of each quarter. Worth a punt at those odds especially with the way these teams have been playing this year. Birchall has had one bad score this year, but covered the line easily in the other 3 games. Since 2011 he is 4-3 at this line. Backing him in. Mitchell has gone 2-1 at this line this year with the exception being against Rocky in R1. Since 2011 has gone 5-2 at this line.

Still tempted by Either Team Under 15.5. Might throw a unit on that tomorrow.

not sure if this will mean much but mitchell has to pass a fitness test this morning to play

 

[Quite Ironic]

some absolutely ripping odds this week. loving

rich -23.5 1.90
40+ 3
60+ 6.50

freo -5.5 1.90
-39.5 7

essendon -39.5 1.90

adelaide -31.5 1.90
60+ 3.9

ytd 4-4
+2.7 units.

 

[foxy_dal]

The Ladbrokes Footy Freaks special usually aren't that special but I think today's Gunston Over 2.5 goals and Hawks to win at $6 is value. This is effectively $3.87 odds for Gunston O2.5 in a multi with Hawks at $1.55 and obviously if he kicks over 2.5 it can only mean they are more likely to win. He did this 9/23 (with Buddy obviously) times last year and 1/4 so far this year but has kicked 10 goals from 4 games.

To give a comprison he is $2.30 to do so at Centre/Sporting and $1.76 at Lux with a refund if he gets 2 exactly.

 

[laam]

arbing the sporting bet 18 point refund special
$100 cats @2.55
$162.52 hawks @ 1.55
risking $9.52 for a $254.49 profit if hawks win by less than 18. Effective odds of 27 ish

edit: what lenny says

also 1u 6 pack special @ 6
1u gunston over 2.5 hawks win @ 6

 

[Lensen]

arbing the sporting bet 18 point refund special
$100 cats @2.55
$162.52 hawks @ 1.55
risking $9.52 for a $254.49 profit if hawks win by less than 18. Effective odds of 27 ish

erm
hawks win by <18, then:
$100 on cats = return of $100 (i.e. refund)
$162.52 on hawks = return of $251.91

it will be an $89.39 profit. it's not a "get paid out if geelong lose by <18"

 

[jaymasha]

Had another losing bet that I placed today when I was out.

1U - Gold Coast 1st Qtr Line -4.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
.

if only they had kicked straight , this wouldn't have been a problem

 

[laam]

erm
hawks win by <18, then:
$100 on cats = return of $100 (i.e. refund)
$162.52 on hawks = return of $251.91

it will be an $89.39 profit. it's not a "get paid out if geelong lose by <18"

ahh s**t stupid me
make that effective odds of 10ish

edit:
add 1u hawkins > 2.5 goals @ 2.7
is getting back into form and plays well against the hawks, history of monstering gibson. same thing is 2.25 at luxbet

 

[Willzzz]

ahh s**t stupid me
make that effective odds of 10ish

Well what you needed to do was,

1U - Cats SU @ $2.55 (Sportingbet Refund Promo)
0.XXU - Hawks -18.5 @ $3.00-odd
0.XXU - Hawks 1 - 18 @ $4

You should be able to get $20 risk-free from memory.
Used to do that with a lot of these promotions when my bank roll was very small and all I wanted to do was build it up. Now, I don't bother.

Am studying so won't have time to play around with the stakes but it shouldn't be too hard to figure out.

 

[laam]

Not worth it for $20 for me either, so happy going for the sweet spot.

 

[Big Fozza]

The Ladbrokes Footy Freaks special usually aren't that special but I think today's Gunston Over 2.5 goals and Hawks to win at $6 is value. This is effectively $3.87 odds for Gunston O2.5 in a multi with Hawks at $1.55 and obviously if he kicks over 2.5 it can only mean they are more likely to win. He did this 9/23 (with Buddy obviously) times last year and 1/4 so far this year but has kicked 10 goals from 4 games.

To give a comprison he is $2.30 to do so at Centre/Sporting and $1.76 at Lux with a refund if he gets 2 exactly.

must of come in quite a bit. Now Gunston kick 3 and paying only 4.

 

[happy punter]

Cats +11.5 over Hawks @ 1.93 (2 units)

 

[Willzzz]

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks

1U – Geelong SU @ $2.70 (Bet365)
0.5U – Geelong SU @ $2.60 (Bet365)
0.5U – Geelong SU @ $2.55 (Sportingbet – Refund if lose by 18 Points or Less)
1U – Disposals: Mitchell < 29.5 @ $1.90 (Sportingbet)
1U – DT: Selwood > 110.5 @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
0.62U – DT: Johnson > 112.5 @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
0.5U – Under GEE/HWK 188.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
0.5U - Supercoach: Birchall > Suckling @ $1.85 (Sportsbet)

 

[danielgb123]

Geelong SU - 2 stakes
J Selwood > 110.5 DT - 2 stakes
C Rioli < 85.5 DT - 1 stake
Gee/Hawk < 187.5 - 1 stake
S Johnson > Mitchell most disposals - 1 stake

 

[jefffff34]

Geelong vs Hawthorn
Kelly to have more disposals than Lewis @ $2.00
Mitchell to have 30 or more disposals @ $2.40
Bartel to win his most disposals group @ $9.00 (vs Duncan, Enright, Mackie, Hodge, Hill, Smith, Suckling)
Johnson to kick 4 or more goals @ $11.00

Kelly 9 v Lewis 9 = even money
Mitchell 15 = on target
Bartel 12, leader is Suckling on 15 =
Johnson 2 = on target

 

[Willzzz]

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks

1U – Geelong SU @ $2.70 (Bet365) WIN
0.5U – Geelong SU @ $2.60 (Bet365) WIN
0.5U – Geelong SU @ $2.55 (Sportingbet – Refund if lose by 18 Points or Less) WIN
1U – Disposals: Mitchell < 29.5 @ $1.90 (Sportingbet) WIN
1U – DT: Selwood > 110.5 @ $1.87 (Sportsbet) LOSS
0.62U – DT: Johnson > 112.5 @ $1.87 (Luxbet) WIN
0.5U – Under GEE/HWK 188.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365) LOSS
0.5U – Supercoach: Birchall > Suckling @ $1.85 (Sportsbet) WIN


Wins in the NBA, NRL and AFL!
Happy Days!!!

 

[Jay-Z]

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks

1U – Geelong SU @ $2.70 (Bet365) WIN
0.5U – Geelong SU @ $2.60 (Bet365) WIN
0.5U – Geelong SU @ $2.55 (Sportingbet – Refund if lose by 18 Points or Less) WIN
1U – Disposals: Mitchell < 29.5 @ $1.90 (Sportingbet) WIN
1U – DT: Selwood > 110.5 @ $1.87 (Sportsbet) LOSS
0.62U – DT: Johnson > 112.5 @ $1.87 (Luxbet) WIN
0.5U – Under GEE/HWK 188.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365) LOSS
0.5U – Supercoach: Birchall > Suckling @ $1.85 (Sportsbet) WIN

Wins in the NBA, NRL and AFL!
Happy Days!!!

Another great day for you. Well done.

I went -4 units today to finish -10 units for the weekend

 

[banana_bus]

That last mark from Hawkins just cost me $100... really poor effort from the Hawks in that last quarter.

 

[Big Fozza]

I'll be getting on port asap for next week

 

[Substance]

well played sportingbet...well played

 

[Anzac16]

Geelong vs Hawthorn

1U - Wire to Wire Any Other Result @ $2.05 (Sportsbet)
1U - Grant Birchall > 82.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Sam Mitchell > 102.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)

Crap weekend for betting. Bring on next week

YTD - 23-0-25, ROI +13.87U

 

[jefffff34]

Round bets pregame
15-1-14, 4.43 units up, 14.77 ROI

Monday bets
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Kelly to have more disposals than Lewis @ $2.00 - 15-21 - LOSS
Mitchell to have 30 or more disposals @ $2.40 - 26 - LOSS
Bartel to win his most disposals group @ $9.00 (vs Duncan, Enright, Mackie, Hodge, Hill, Smith, Suckling) - 25 - HALF ODDS - Hill 25, Duncan 22, Hodge 21, Smith 19, Suckling 19, Enright 16, Mackie 12,
Johnson to kick 4 or more goals @ $11.00 - 3 - LOSS

0-1-3, 0.5 units up

Round wrap up
15-2-17, 4.93 units up, 14.5% ROI


Gee Bartel was going to get to 26 possessions, but some Hawthorn player knocked it away and OOB with about a minute left.