AFL - NAB Challenge 2015

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Next week's games are up. Will wait until it's clearer which teams will be playing near full strength before I bet on anything.


Port said they will be going very young, then slightly better, then a full side by the 3rd game. West Coast game of match fitness under their belt should make them an attractive bet.

Jesus ******* christ i just checked the odds. Load up on WC at $3.80
 
Port said they will be going very young, then slightly better, then a full side by the 3rd game. West Coast game of match fitness under their belt should make them an attractive bet.

Jesus ******* christ i just checked the odds. Load up on WC at $3.80

Only thing I'd say is you'd think the travelling teams will be wary bringing their big stars.

No travelling teams (bar Collingwood, neutral ground) won in week 1.
 
Hinkley confirmed on 5aa on Friday we would only play our full strength team in the last week. First game will be magpies players, indigenous academy players and Jarrad Redden.

Add in the fact that Hinkley won't even be coaching the first and second matches but handed it over to an inexperienced coach.

Port will be without, at a minimum:

Trengrove
Monfries
Jonas
Ryder
Wingard

And likely others.


West coast having match fitness from already playing a match and are great value at $3.75
 
reckon it's a trap
be surprised if pav/mcpharlin play

At the very least I would expect the odds to drop and I can hedge. Fremantle team is stacked, even with some late withdrawals I still think they can win. Roos has also said they are going to heavily rotate their players.
 

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Thinking Melbourne might offer abit of value on Thursday night.
Can get 3.10 and a line of 16.5+ at the line on sportsbet.
Keeping remembering last year in the NAB when Freo didn't care & WCE flogged them.
 
Thinking Melbourne might offer abit of value on Thursday night.
Can get 3.10 and a line of 16.5+ at the line on sportsbet.
Keeping remembering last year in the NAB when Freo didn't care & WCE flogged them.
I get that feeling too Kanga. Not sure if Freo will give a s**t. However, certain games that stick in punters minds can be their undoing. Interesting to see what team Lyon will unveil.
 
Both Sydney and Brisbane naming pretty strong squads... surely there are a few players dropped from there...

I avoided this game. Sydney have more players out but have a much stronger team generally than the Lions. Lions won't drop players, they are lacking match practice because they didn't have an intra-club game like all the other teams due to all the bad weather up here.
 
The Lions are great value at +12.5 (Sportsbet).

- Coffs is closer to Brisbane than Sydney, so no home advantage.
- the Swans are missing more important players than the Lions.
- the Lions finished their 2014 season 4 weeks earlier than the Swans.
 
The Lions are great value at +12.5 (Sportsbet).

- Coffs is closer to Brisbane than Sydney, so no home advantage.
- the Swans are missing more important players than the Lions.
- the Lions finished their 2014 season 4 weeks earlier than the Swans*.

*3 weeks earlier
 
I get that feeling too Kanga. Not sure if Freo will give a s**t. However, certain games that stick in punters minds can be their undoing. Interesting to see what team Lyon will unveil.

Lyon strikes me as someone who doesn't give a toss about the NAB challenge.
Surely he will rest Pav & most of the other top players.

On the other hand, a Paul Roos coached Melbourne team who had a defensive style of play last season.
They have plenty of recurits who would be eager to prove themselves (Lumumba, Garlett, etc.) and Hogan sounds very promising.
 
The Lions are great value at +12.5 (Sportsbet).

- Coffs is closer to Brisbane than Sydney, so no home advantage.
- the Swans are missing more important players than the Lions.
- the Lions finished their 2014 season 4 weeks earlier than the Swans.

Lions had a full team and beat St Kilda by 3 points. Don't touch this game IMO.
 
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