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AFL Round 20 Brisbane Lions V Sydney Swans Official Thread

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weevil

weevil

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Veteran 10k Posts A Star Wars Fan Ex-Moderator
Jul 15, 2003
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Vegas
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Brisbane Lions
AFL Premiership Round 20
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Saturday 18 August 2007
The Gabba, 7:15pm (Brisbane time)
Brisbane Forecast




T.V.
QLD & NSW: Channel 10 (Live), Fox Sports 1 (Live)
OTHER STATES: Fox Sports 1 (Live)


Radio
VIC: 3AW, SEN, ABC.
SA: MMM, ABC.
WA: NIRS.
NSW: MMM, ABC.
QLD: MMM, NIRS & ABC.
ACT: ABC.
TAS: ABC.
NT: ABC & NIRS.



Reserves
AFLQ State League Round 18
Suncoast Lions (4th) v Morningside (2nd)
Saturday 18 August 2007
Gabba @ 3:20pm (local time) - curtain raiser


Ladder:
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Last 5 Rounds:
L5L2.GIF



Win-Loss Sequences:
SWL2.GIF



Recent history:
Last102.GIF

​

The Brisbane Perspective:
Originally Posted by Grimreepah

The equation is simple – Brisbane need to win if they want to play finals, Sydney need to win if they want to finish in the top 4.

Brisbane

The forward line – Leigh’s remodeled blue collar forward line has been a revelation since the midseason break, however I think questions are starting to be asked whether Mills and Copeland are providing enough in attack. But with Mitch Clark suffering hamstring tightness in the reserves it would seem everyone’s position is safe for at least another week.

Craig Bolton did a reasonable job on Brown in the round 3 encounter. Bolton has tremendous closing speed, but these days Brown looks to mark the ball more with his hands, and Bolton may find it a bit harder to get a fist to the ball. Brennan has been in good form of late, but was very quiet last week. How will he respond? The Sydney defence will not give him much space to work with and he may well have to move up the ground to get involved. Hooper is becoming one of our most dangerous players. He has never played against Sydney before, and it will interesting to see how they go about curbing his influence.

The midfield – Normally you can’t shut down all of Black, Power, Lappin and Adcock, but Sydney is one team that can restrict the whole midfield. Our players seem to be under instruction that if they are getting tagged to increase their defensive work rate. I expect it will be a low possession game (take note dream teamers), with plenty of tackling.

In contrast to Sydney, I think one of our weaknesses is our lack of taggers. The injury to McGrath was IMO a big blow, and with Selwood at limited fitness we are left with defensive minded players rather than a genuine shut down player. Selwood may still get the job on Goodes, but Macdonald, Begley and Mills may be other possibilities.

The backline – I imagine it will be Merrett to Hall, Roe to O’Loughlin and Patfull to the dangerous O’Keefe (which will be a great battle). I think we match up well, but Paul Roos is very good at exploiting a weakness and that may be Roe. However I expect it will be the smaller forwards in Davis and Schneider that will cause us the most problems. Whether or not Drummond plays will make a huge difference to how well we can rebound out of defence.

Sydney – An Outsider’s Perspective

At the start of the year Leigh said Sydney had an ageing list and were on the decline. As of yet I don’t think we have seen anything to suggest this is true. In fact I would say it has been a typical Sydney year – start slow, everyone writes them off, then inconspicuously creep up the ladder as the year goes on. All of a sudden they are one win away from 2nd spot with 3 rounds to play. For the first time in a few years they’ve had a problem or two with injuries and loss of form to key players, but that seems to be in the past and apart from a little inconsistency from Barry Hall it is now all systems go.

Sydney are a very professional team - they are disciplined, very team-oriented, tough and consistent. They are good on the road and play their best footy at the business end of the season.

Sydney play a very compressed game, and while it may not necessarily be attractive to watch, it is very effective, especially against Brisbane. We have struggled to counter it in the past and I think it is ideally suited to counter our current style as well. We are a good side when we are given some space but we are prone to making mistakes when put under pressure. Sydney will apply the pressure, they will restrict our ability to play on, and they won’t give us space to work with, especially through the corridor.


Prediction

Despite the high stakes, I think there is a danger that we may be a little flat for this game. We have been riding a wave of success, but now we have come back down to earth. We have played tough games against the Kangaroos and Hawthorn, and it doesn’t get any easier with Sydney. Our younger players may well be starting to feel the pinch.

After beating West Coast, it would be terrific to knock off our other bogey side in the Swans, but I think they will just be a bit too experienced for us. Sydney by 14 points in a low scoring game.
Click to expand...
 
weevil said:
The Opposition Perspective:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ???

TBA
Click to expand...
Looks like the Swans aren't going to turn up for this one. Cool.
We have dominated the Hawks in recent years but they got us on the weekend. Time for us to do it to Sydney. I want to beat them so badly.
 
Grimreepah said:
Hooper is becoming one of our most dangerous players. He has never played against Sydney before, and it will interesting to see how they go about curbing his influence.
Click to expand...

Well it would have been if he didn't get suspended:rolleyes:
 

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My views:
Swans
How are we travelling?
Won 5 of the last 6 although 3 of them have been against the bottom 3. Consequently, we scored 100+ in 4 consecutive games before last week's game, which is almost unheard of in the Roos area. The back line, despite missing Barry and LRT, is playing very well, marshalled by the indomitable Craig Bolton. The midfield unit has always been very capable of shutting down highly fancied opposition with a raft of taggers in Kirk, Mathews, McVeigh and Ablett to choose from. The ruck duo of Jolly and Everitt is among the best combination in the league and rotate well in the ruck and up forward. The forward line has become less Hall-centric with Barry not fully fit but this has probably helped the Swans scoring as the other forwards and the 2 ruckmen have had to pick up the load.

Changes
Leo Barry has been declared a 50-50 chance by Roos who also said LRT will play reserves this week. With the finals coming up, I think they'll play it safe and rest Leo for another week with hammies a notoriously easy injury to inflame. With the Swans reserves not playing last week, and the 2 emergencies (Brennan and Schmidt) who played in the Saints game contributing well, I foresee no changes in the squad barring injury (touch wood)

Who's in form?
Craig Bolton - Has been in terrific touch as of late, restricting star forwards such as Richo, Neitz and Gehrig to low scores. In Leo's absence, has been assigned to the big power forwards which is a new area for him. He has not only managed to negate them, but he's agility and pace when rebounding off the halfback line has been far too good for his lumbering opponents. Roos has already stated he will face the in-form Brown in the matchup of the game. Did well against Brown earlier in the year after 1/4 time, but a lot will hinge on how much pressure the Swans midfield can apply to their Brisbane counterparts.
Adam Goodes - Perhaps hasn't reached the heights of last year but is playing significantly better than at the start of the season. Starting to run through the lines again, and beating tackles that would have stuck earlier in the year. Has managed to play well despite the close attentions of taggers like Blake and Raines.
Amon Buchanan - Dropped to the reserves for poor form after returning from injury, he has bounced back superbly. His run and carry in the past 2 games have sparked the Swans midfield. His ability to weave in and out of tight packs is arguably the best in the team.

Possible matchups
- CBolton v JBrown - see above.
- JMcVeigh v JAdcock - McVeigh has moved back to a defensive forward role, which he excelled in last year, after failing to impress in the midfield. Did a fine job on Dal Santo and then on the hot Montagna last week, he'll have his hands full on Adcock, who must be close to All-Australian selection.
- Kirk v Black - Kirk has played on Black in the past and has done so very well. His ability to win the contested ball as well may see Leigh try and assign a tag to Kirk in return.
- Mathews v Power - Underappreciated by many Swans fans, Mathews has performed well in many of his run-with roles and will have a big job on Power.
- Ablett v Lappin - From the Swans point of view, perhaps the biggest concern. Noggy's form has been up and down and some of his run with roles in the past haven't been the best. Will need to hurt Brisbane when he comes into possession.
- ROK v Patfull - ROK was well shut down by Sam Gilbert, and he'll be determined not to have 2 quiet games in a row. Patfull will be good matchup as he has the height & strength as well as the aerobic capacity to run with the indefatigable O'Keefe.
 
This is the make or break game for our season. Win this and we are on the front foot. I believe this is a game we should win, our boys should be pumped after last week's effort. We busted our gut against the hawks, we were outplayed for 1 quarter and the burning desire should be in the boys guts. I don't think the Swans backline will man up as well on our forwards and we need to move the ball as quickly as possible.

I am sure this week our boys would of been working on using the ball as efficiently as possible. It is vital against Sydney that we don't overpossess or overuse the ball. The Swans will look to play a complete contested/clearance style of game. There is no point trying to match this style of play, we need to work on breaking the game as open as possible, lots of hard running, quick movement of the ball and efficient ball use is required. The swans are on a roll, they have been up for a few years now and i will openly question how hard there group are really willing to work when they are being taken on? (This year)

If the Swans try to flood our forward line, I would think that Leigh will look to the likes of Adcock and Drummond to be crossing the 50 and kicking goals.


My outs for this week are

Hooper: suspended

Moody: No confidence, poor decision making, what makes this bloke an AFL player is his pace and run, he is not using any of it

Begley: He is a freak, but his decision making needs to improve (it will)

Mills: Cannot see the game style suiting his role this week and i want the 4 ins

In

Proud:I think he will relish the tough inclose opportunities a game against the swans will give him, also has defensive pressure (he is not Hooper) i think he could bring some impressive aggression, presence and skill to the team in the last 3 weeks.

Sherman: The bloke is a gun, if he is deemed fit, he must be in, he is a quality player, could provide another dangerous forward option or dash from the half back line, will add another link in the chain and relieve a little bit of pressure off our other ball carriers eg. Notting

Hadley: You're running with Goodesy, another gun in the making, time to play him

Drummond: To play as a goal kicking wingman/lead up forward
I expect to see a ferocity from the Lions this week that is almost unbelievable.
 
acuguy said:
Begley: He is a freak, but his decision making needs to improve (it will)

In

Hadley: You're running with Goodesy, another gun in the making, time to play him
Click to expand...

Just on these two. I would be surprised if Begs goes. His first 1/4 last week was his best yet and being in the defense he, along with the other defenders, was not responsible for the midfield being slaughtered.

I am not too sure that Hadley deserves a game. I have watched the ressies a couple of times now and he is not playing that well and for me does not deserve to come in.
 
grimlock said:
So good that Hadley was moved onto Goodes later on.
Click to expand...

That was simply a rotation policy I believe. A few times this year Leigh seems to rotate two guys who are tagging some of these elite players I have noticed.
 

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Cousin Jed said:
That was simply a rotation policy I believe. A few times this year Leigh seems to rotate two guys who are tagging some of these elite players I have noticed.
Click to expand...

I would guess that to be the case. From memory Mills was only on him for the first quarter but did quite well, better than Hadley I thought.
 
Great write up Grim:thumbsu:


This game is going to be a closely faught tight one. Brisbane's 1st Elimination Final. I hope the Lions can get up because if they lose this one the 07 season is over.

For me Lions by 3 points.
 
I would drop Selwood (slow, turns the ball over, makes too many mistakes) & Johnno who had a shocker against the Hawks-very rusty was he.Hooper out is big blow.
Bring in Hadley, Drummond , Clarke if available
 

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Should be an awesome game.

I think Sydney's good form in Queensland over the years is because Sydney's climate is similar to Brisbane's. Certainly a lot more similar than comparing Melbourne to Brisbane. For this reason the heat is not a factor and they can run out games a lot better.

Sydney form is an interesting beast.
C. Bolton is, probably, the premier defender in the league at the moment. If anyone in the AFL can stop J.Brown its him. And he has a reasonable record against him too.
Out back line, although missing last years pillors in Barry and LRT, is holding up really well. Malcheski has combined with kennelly to give us two avenues for running it out, making it much harder to stop.
Our midfield is in best form ever. The Cortinas are firing. Not that we're in the fab-4 domain yet, but its currently not our weakest area.

Our weakest area is the forward line. I have doubts as to whether Hall will play. Without Hall we will struggle to score over 12 goals, therefore it will be a real hard slog of a game.

So much on the line, should be a cracker.
 
Big question marks over Hall and Keneally, fitness and form. Good for us if Hall plays or not. Brennan and Bushy must find some ball inside 50, this will go a long way to getting us over the line. Like to see Proud have a go, also Hadley if he's up to it. Once again we're going to need a big all round effort, if the second string boys like Stiller, Begley, Rischa, Selwood put in then I'm feeling hopeful. Lions by 17 points.
 

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AFL Round 20 Brisbane Lions V Sydney Swans Official Thread

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