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List Analysis 2008

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POBT

POBT

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Veteran 10k Posts Ex-Moderator Brisbane Lions - Nick Robertson Player Sponsor 2014 Brisbane Lions - Simon Black 2012 Player Sponsor
Mar 10, 2004
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This is something that I did last year.

Essentially, it is a very simplistic view of our list based on a rating system from A to D. It is certainly not perfect but it does allow a decent comparison on how a list has developed (or not) from year to year. The individual ratings are my own opinion only, but I am happy to change things if it is clear that the majority disagrees with me.

Based on some of the comments about the ratings system last year, I have made two changes. The first is that I have created a new category for players who cannot be appropriately rated due to injury. At this stage, I have only included Bradshaw in this category but am considering whether Clark and Sherman should also be added.

The second change is that I have broadened the C category. Essentially, this category is now for players who are not "best 22" standard as yet but cannot be considered unproven. The corollary of this is that the B category is only for legitimate best 22 players - I am trying to be as tough as possible for eligibility as a B-grader even if I am more bullish about players' prospects - a good example here is Begley. I am also tough on who qualifies as an A grader. Charmo caused some debate last year when I ranked him as a B. I have kept him at that ranking simply because I don't believe he is an elite ruckman over 22 games. This year, Notting is the unluckiest omission from the A category.

So, the rating system is:

A: AFL Star
B: proven long term AFL player
C: not yet proven as a long term AFL player although has some form
D: has no/little form at AFL level

A couple of other points:

- The 2007 season is the main driver for ratings although previous form is relevant. No-one is ranked a B that hasn't achieved over more than 1 season. Certain players have dropped to a C because 2007 was a disappointing year.

- A couple of A graders are there even though their 2007 was below normal standards.

A couple of B graders are incredibly close to being an A grader - a positive sign.


Rankings to follow.
 
Rucks

A

Nil

B

Charman

C

Leuenberger
McDonald

D

Nil

____________________

Midfielders

A

Adcock
Black
Johnstone
Lappin
Power

B

Notting
Rischitelli
Stiller

C

Harding
Selwood
Sherman

D

Dalziell
Polkinghorne
Proud
Sheldon

________________________

Key Position Players

A

Brown

B

Merrett
Patfull

C

Clark
Mills
Roe

D

Collier
Henderson
Tyler

INJURED

Bradshaw

__________________________

Flankers and Pockets

A

Nil

B

Brennan
Copeland
Drummond
Hooper
Macdonald

C

Begley
McGrath
Moody
Corrie

D

Austin
Hawksley
Schmidt
 
2007

A = 3
B = 10
C = 13
D = 13

2008

A = 6 (+3)
B = 11 (+1)
C= 12 (-1)
D = 10 (-3)

Injured = 1

It would seem that we are going in the right direction. Substantial improvements at the elite end of the list and a reduction in the number of Cs and Ds.
 
Nice one! Not sure whether I'd rate Rischitelli and Stiller as "proven" just yet, but I guess that's subjective, so it's a good indication of our list nonetheless. Besides showing that we are moving in the right direction it also highlights what we all know - we have enough stars to carry the team, so if our emerging players take the next step (our Cs become Bs) then we're right up there. I wonder how the Geelong 07 list would score, or our premiership teams of 01,02,03. How much time have you got on your hands POBT?
 

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Pedro the Lion said:
Nice one! Not sure whether I'd rate Rischitelli and Stiller as "proven" just yet, but I guess that's subjective, so it's a good indication of our list nonetheless.
Click to expand...

I would tend to agree. Didn't quite do enough perhaps, but as you said, it is subjective.

I could also be biased as I was fairly disappointed in Michael's season.
 
Deciding who is proven and who isn't is the difficult task here. Hooper finished the year playing better footy than Riska and Stiller but I would have thought he is less proven. In other words 'provenness' does not necessarily correlate with ability.
 
Grimreepah said:
Deciding who is proven and who isn't is the difficult task here. Hooper finished the year playing better footy than Riska and Stiller but I would have thought he is less proven. In other words 'provenness' does not necessarily correlate with ability.
Click to expand...

:D:thumbsu:
 
Pedro the Lion said:
I wonder how the Geelong 07 list would score, or our premiership teams of 01,02,03.
Click to expand...

Warwick had a go at ranking our 2003 list. It is on the thread I linked to in the OP.

How much time have you got on your hands POBT?
Click to expand...

Procrastination is a wonderful thing.
 
Grimreepah said:
Deciding who is proven and who isn't is the difficult task here. Hooper finished the year playing better footy than Riska and Stiller but I would have thought he is less proven. In other words 'provenness' does not necessarily correlate with ability.
Click to expand...
Agree with that. It is the guys on the fringe of each category that are the hardest to rank. I tried to look at whether: 1) the player was in our best 22, and 2) the player would make the best 22 of some other sides. The second part, in particular, is not an easy assessment to make.

On Riska and Stiller, while I would be happy with Riska as a C grader, I'm not sure Stiller doesn't deserve to be listed as a B. He had a very consistent year to follow on from a decent 2006. I think he has well and truly established himself at AFL level.
 
Grimreepah said:
Deciding who is proven and who isn't is the difficult task here. Hooper finished the year playing better footy than Riska and Stiller but I would have thought he is less proven. In other words 'provenness' does not necessarily correlate with ability.
Click to expand...

True. Hooper wouldn't have finished last season as a proven player, and by round 13 he hadn't played another game. He certainly played some great footy in the second half of the season, but in reality, he's only played half a dozen games of footy since he went AWOL.
 
Kochie 16 said:
Interesting thread, How many 'A graders' would geelong or west coast have?
Click to expand...
Arguably, Geelong could have at least 9. I included Adcock on the basis that he made the AA top 40 so all of the Geelong players would be A rated, I guess.
 

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Kochie 16 said:
Of course, but brisbane of 2001- 2004 would be all a/b graders!
Click to expand...
That will never happen. You will always have unproven players on your list. This post of Warwick's uses the same ranking system against our 2003 squad. In that year, we still only had about 20 players ranked A or B.
 
Given we only have 6 'A' players (AFL stars) and 12 'B' players (best 22 players), looks like we'll only be fielding a team of 18 players. ;)

FWIW, I agree with your rating that is based on AFL form - after all, potential is a dangerous thing to second guess.

You said that placing some players who are on the edge of categories is difficult - I agree. For example, I think Charman, Selwood and Sherman all deserve to be bumped up a slot.

Could we try more categories for some of the borderline players? Or would that make it too hard to analyse?
 
BigCat2 said:
Could we try more categories for some of the borderline players? Or would that make it too hard to analyse?
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, the categories aren't perfect BC. The issue with creating more categories is that you simply create more lineball decisions. However, the weakness of this system is that you end up with some arbitrary results.

On Sherman, I would lean towards putting him into the "injured" category, given that his season was so affected.
 

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POBT said:
Unfortunately, the categories aren't perfect BC. The issue with creating more categories is that you simply create more lineball decisions. However, the weakness of this system is that you end up with some arbitrary results.

On Sherman, I would lean towards putting him into the "injured" category, given that his season was so affected.
Click to expand...

Yeah I see what you mean. I was thinking say for if you have 4 categories as opposed to 2 then it's a better fit, similarly with say 6 categories opposed to 4.

I find the "injured" category an interesting one, because it doesn't tell you much about the potential impact of that player when he returns. For example, Bradshaw and Garner would both be placed in the injured category, but one is a starting 18 player when fit, while the other is totally unproven at AFL level.

And if you're leaning towards Sherman for the injured category, then I think Selwood is in a similar boat. He had off season back surgery which prevented him from doing anything until February, and I think the limited preseason had a big impact on his fitness and speed. I'm confident with some solid fitness base, he'll return to being our best tagger.
 
greendiesel said:
A couple of people a bit too harsh on Rischitelli.
Whilst I agree it wasn't his best year, he still laid 99 tackles, ( 2nd best at Brisb) , 60 hard ball gets ( 2nd ) and 63 clearances ( 3rd ).
I'll take him as a B grader.
Click to expand...

In fact, it was almost undoubtedly Rischitelli's best year, and he contributed much more to the side over the course of the year than a guy like Hooper.

His major problem was he started off on a 'star-like' projection that had him looking like an AA after a few rounds of the season. Expectations were set, and once he tapered back to just decent, solid, accountable football, most people were disappointed -- even though he played every game and was at least as good as he was any previous season and often better.

Hooper played 6-7 games for the whole season and 4 of those games were very good -- but probably no better than Rischa's best 4 games. Hooper was just lucky enough to play his good games in the last third of the season, so we remember them better.

BTW: I'm not trying to run down Hooper. I'm wrapped with his development, but just pointing out it's much easier physically and mentally to look constantly dangerous in 7 games than it is in 22 games + NAB Cup.
 
greendiesel said:
A couple of people a bit too harsh on Rischitelli.
Whilst I agree it wasn't his best year, he still laid 99 tackles, ( 2nd best at Brisb) , 60 hard ball gets ( 2nd ) and 63 clearances ( 3rd ).
I'll take him as a B grader.
Click to expand...

Fair Cop.

Guess my opinion on him soured during the teams dismal weeks (every time he had the ball he seemed completely clueless as to what to do with it), and that was more a reflection on the team and the way they were going.

B it is.
 
Interesting that in the retrospective 2004 list that Warwick posted last year the Cs were Charman, Bradshaw, Notting and Copeland. Is Rischitelli more progressed or proven than they were three years ago?
 

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