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AFL Round 1 West Coast V Brisbane Lions Official Thread

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weevil

weevil

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Jul 15, 2003
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Brisbane Lions
AFL Premiership Round 1
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Saturday 22 March 2008
Subiaco Oval, 6:40pm (Brisbane time) Perth Forecast



TV
QLD & WA: Channel 10 & Fox Sports 1.
NSW, VIC & SA : Fox Sports 1.

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The Brisbane Perspective:
Originally Posted by POBT

Pre-season in a nutshell

If you rely on pre-season form, then the Lions would have to be worse than rank outsiders. The only victory was against those pre-season giants the Sydney Swans. Key players like Brown, Black and Merrett have not had substantial game time which creates a level of uncertainty given the reliance the club has on those 3 players in particular. From all reports though, the club’s final pre-season performance was substantially improved and, with the added bonus of a relatively short injury list, the club has every right to be feeling OK going into the season proper.

Black aside, all of the Lions key midfielders have had plenty of pre-season match time. Johnstone, Adcock, Lappin, Powe , Stiller and Notting have all had their moments so far this year and will form the core of the midfield in round 1.

Midfield Set-up

While the Lions first choice midfield is the equal of most, there is still a question still about the class of the deeper midfield rotation. At Subiaco, where suspect midfields get found out, the key will be the ability of the depth players to match West Coast’s seemingly unending supply of midfielders. For all those guys around 50 games, it is time that the tag of “promising” is replaced with “performing”.

It is difficult to predict possible match ups for round 1 as there is not much prior form to rely on. Putting the coach’s hat on for a minute, I would ask Adcock to run with Kerr. You need a robust strategy to deal with Kerr and Jed is the Lion’s best defensive player, whilst remaining an offensive threat. I would then rely on one of the Lions’ lesser lights like Sherman or Selwood to go with an Eagles prime mover, such as Priddis. I expect West Coast to tag Black and play close to Johnstone who will likely play forward of the contest.

Up Front

The Lions have a decided advantage in terms of forward quality. Brown is obviously head and shoulders above anything that the Eagles can put forward while Bradshaw is a bonus for the Lions. The return of Bradshaw may pose a conundrum for Worsfold. Glass normally goes to the best forward and so would be expected to line up next to Brown. However, Bradshaw will almost certainly play closer to goal which is where Glass does his best work.

Copeland’s role as a defensive forward should not be understated at Subi. Bushy, Hooper and whoever is asked to play on half forward (Brennan, Mills, Henderson or even Notting), will need to provide a defensive presence inside 50 against a side which loves to build from the back. It is my view that Mills will travel west and will play as he can be called upon to quell Hunter’s influence at half back as well as fill other roles if required.

Down back

Merrett was outstanding as a pure defender in 2007 and is starting to become more widely recognised for his ability to shut down the opposition’s primary forward. He may be underdone though and Big Q showed last year that he can put the skates on and work an opponent over with his aerobic capacity.

Patfull’s move back to defence mid year was a masterstroke. He's coming off a couple of good pre-season performances and one shocker. Whilst the Merrett v Lynch match up is important, perhaps the key battle will be between Patfull and Hansen. Without Roe, the Lions will feel vulnerable in terms of talls unless Mills or Henderson makes the squad.

Joel Macdonald will take the West Coast’s best small forward (Le Cras?) and is flexible and fit enough to follow his opponent into the midfield. Alongside Drummond and possibly Notting, there is still room for one more running player across half back and Anthony Corrie showed enough in pre-season to get the nod over an underdone Begley.

Won or Lost

Decision making, disposal and clearances are the keys for a Lions victory. The game plan falls apart when the side starts missing targets or kicking to unwinnable contests. Equally, the Lions clearance work is up and down. Weirdly enough, at clearances is where Brennan has looked to be an effective midfielder with his uncanny ability to find space in traffic.

The other improvement, at least on paper, is that the Lions look to have better decision makers across all 5 lines. Drummond, Corrie and JMac are all good users of the ball in the back half which is where the game is set up at Subi. But the decision making and disposal across the park must remain solid against a side which puts exceptional pressure on the ball carrier.

Prediction – West Coast by 3 goals. While the Lions will take comfort from last year’s performance, there will be plenty in the West Coast camp still smarting. Winning at Subi is incredibly tough and whilst the Lions are every chance, the smart money has to remain with the Eagles.
Click to expand...

The Opposition Perspective:
Originally Posted by Lynch takes a mark

Introduction

The year from hell for the West Coast Eagles is finally behind them, losing 3 club greats in Ben Cousins, Chris Judd and Chris Mainwaring each in very different circumstances.

There is a new captain, the reserved Darren Glass typifies what the new breed of West Coast Eagles are all about with an emphasis on off field character and clean living being a major emphasis. All Australian Full back for the past 2 seasons to go with back to back top 2 finishes in the clubs B&F made the choice that much easier.

11 list changes were made in the off season including the delisting of club stalwarts Ben Cousins and Daniel Chick, the retirement of 150 gamer and premiership player Rowan Jones, the trading of young guns Mitch Morton and Chris Judd. Welcomed to the club is a list of exceptional talent including tough onballers Chris Masten, Brad Ebert & Scott Selwood and Key Position pair Tony Notte and Josh Kennedy.

Recent form

Little can be made of pre season form but one thing can be guaranteed, those who were injured or struggling for fitness in the horror season of 2007 have made strong measures to make sure they will be on the park come round 1, this includes premiership players Ash Hansen, Beau Waters, Daniel Kerr, Chad Fletcher and 2006 Norm Smith medallist Andrew Embley.

The preseason has been regarded by many at the club as significantly more challenging compared to previous years and especially in 2007 where the ability for the players to run out games in the second half of the season was noticeably poor. This years preseason has been near faultless fitness wise with only Daniel Kerr (Hamstring) Mitch Brown (Knee) Michael Braun (surgery) and Sam Butler (Groin Surgery) having significant interruptions.

All other players have enjoyed near faultless preseasons including the likes of Mark LeCras, Matt Priddis and Key position untility Jamie Graham.

The NAB cup got under way in typical fashion for the West Coast with a loss to cross town rivals Fremantle under lights at Subiaco, and wins against Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon in the NAB Challenge series

Last time they met

It was Western Australia VS the Fitzroy Lions in herritage round of the AFL, both teams looking magnificent in the old colours on a cool Saturday Night in the West.

Brisbane had not won a game in 7 weeks and had drifted out to $11 with some bookmakers to win the game, West Coast had lost 3 of the past 5 games and were looking shaky after Judd injured his groin a few weeks earlier against the Hawks and was coming back from interrupted form.

West Coast started well with Mark LeCras kicking 3 goals in the first half and the Kerr Judd combo racking up 38 disposals to the half time break but surprisingly with little impact on the way the game was taking shape.

For the Lions Merret had control of Lynch while Jarred Brennan was doing what he liked as West Coast struggled to find a good matchup for the enigmatic acrobat who went on to kick 4 goals on 4 opponents and claim the 3 Brownlow votes.

The second half was a continuation of the first, West Coast doing just enough to try and hold a desperate Brisbane at bay, that was until a large unit by the name of J. Brown decided to inflict some damage not only on the scoreboard with 4 goals but also serve the West Coast players with a timely reminder of why he one of the most feared players in the game.

It was the start of a 5 game winning streak for the lions and the start of a goal avalanche for Brown who went on to kick 48 goals in the next 10 games while West Coast would suffer one of its worst losses under Coach Worsfold, going down by 91 points to grand finalists Port Adelaide and have just 2 wins from the past 7 games.

Key matchups

Darren Glass vs Jonathon Brown

Who better to line up on the reigning coleman medalist than the reigning All Australian Full Back, Brown hasn’t had a good record against the Eagles with his fitness and suspension history often coinciding with West Coast games.

Simon Black vs Tyson Stenglein

Wouldn’t be the first time that Stenglein has been given the job on one of the best inside mids the game has seen in the past 10 seasons, last time the team met Black kicked the opening goal and went on to receive 2 brownlow votes for his efforts in the midfield.

Daniel Merret vs Quinten Lynch

Apart from an 8 goal game against the lions late in 06 Lynch really hasn’t been anything special against the club but he comes into the season with a fully fit Ash Hansen, Mark LeCas and Josh Kennedy by his side to help take the pressure off the clubs leading goal kicker of the past 2 seasons. The ability of the previous midfield to win the ball vastly overshadowed there ability to actually his a player on the lead, preferring to had ball it to a player under pressure and eventually launch a bomb deep into the forward line.

Game Day

Every team goes into the season with an altered game plan but perhaps none as dramatic as West Coast in 2008, after being so reliant on the ball getting ability of Kerr, Judd and Cousins there will be a definite change to the way the team moves the ball. Expect the likes of Hurn, Nicoski, Graham and Embley to the main movers and shakers of the teams forward thrusts with more emphasis on the transition from half back to the half forward line and less on simply controlling the stoppages in the midfield.

Josh Kennedy, Ash Hansen and Quinten Lynch will be utilised far more as the team looks to kick long to the big targets at half forward and is a dramatic improvement over the run and handball game plans that failed so badly with the decreased personnel late last year.

Young guns for the Eagles who are very real chances to be in the starting lineup include Chris Masten, Brad Ebert and Jamie McNamara and the movement of Wirrpanda to the forward line, LeCras spending significant time up the field and Adam Hunter to provide extra marking power to the forward line.

Result

West Coast goes into the game $1.40 favourites with the bookies and it’s no surprise with such good preseason preparation and the home ground advantage.

A very different Ealges lineup will take the field compared to this time last year but will still boast 15 premiership players and some more than handy additions to that list

Final result - West Coast to resume it's round 1 good luck having not lost the opening match of the season since John Worsfold took over the head coaching job in 2002

West Coast by 3 goals
Click to expand...

Thanks to POBT & Lynch takes a mark for the previews.
 
Expected top of 32 degrees on Saturday.

Fitness may prove to be critical.

God it is good to have the footy back:thumbsu:
 

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Well done POBT and Lynch takes a mark, surprising you both are suggesting a 3 goal difference… me? As we are currently experiencing an Indian Summer where I am I believe this game will be just like the cricket and will purely be decided by the toss of the coin…

There will be no surprise attack by our boys this time, I anticipate the Eagles first game to be more of an ambush… although, in the absence of any of the normal preseason furores out West this year they may not even realise that the season proper has started… Thank you Justice Gillard for quietly returning home…

weevil said:
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to season 2008!
Click to expand...


Yes indeed weevil, welcome to 2008 footy….

And as previously stated, I don't need to see the teams... Heads it is.. and the LIONS by 9 points.
 
So hard to ascertain what the outcome of this game will be.

I honestly believe our team looks better than theirs overall, but this side has had our measure for so long. Add in a touch of Round 1 uncertainty and who knows how this will end up.

If we could win this though, it would just about be the perfect springboard for a finals tilt.
 
Chasing the Dream said:
Wow, now there is a big call:eek:
Click to expand...

I'm not saying that if we win this, we're guaranteed to play finals.

I'm saying that besides beating the Cats at Skilled, the chance to beat the Eagles at Subi in round 1 would be pretty much the ultimate way to open our account for the year.
 
Will certainly be an interesting match

would likely be a very one on one game plan similar to that of Collingwood that allowed them to really fight out of there weight range last year so expect a fairly boring display and nothing like the free flowing midfield runathon that Judd and Cousins were able to do.
 
I have been thinking a fair bit about who will oppose Brown, i would suggest that the structure is obviously going to be Bradshaw close to goals and Brown working from Hf down to full forward. I would expect to see Copeland again playing as the hard leading forward, this works well at Subi on the big field and will be our out of trouble option when we go forward.

The Bradshaw match up is a worry for the eagles, Glass will definitely go to Brown, Pobt you have sold me on the Mills to Hansen theory although Henderson could play forward and Mills could play back if both are selected, maybe Brett Jones will play on Bradshaw, this would be a massive win for us in theory.

At the other end of the ground Merrett will take Lynch, i think Patfull is an excellent match up for Hansen, even though Hansen is big he relies on moving and leading, expect Hansen to get a bit of it but look for where he gets the ball, i expect it will be quite wide on the field. The third West Coast tall forward will either be J.Kennedy or C.Jones, this is where we are stretched, at pinch we could play Brennan on either of them, although i would prefer to see him run in the midfield and forward, i wonder whether Lethal will go with J.Mac or just decide to play Henderson.

Selection is going to be interesting, will we try and match tall player for tall player or will Matthews back his undersized defenders and pick a team that will run. I do believe that this game or one soon will see our Brotherhood of Brennan, Proud, Hooper and Corrie having a major influence on the first of many lions victories.
 
Just realised that when I edited my preview for size reasons, I cut off a paragraph about the ruck contest :eek:

Here it is, FWIW.

The Big Units

The Lions suffered a blow to their ruck depth in the off season although this won't effect the round 1 side with Charman and Leuenberger fit and with games under their belts. West Coast have a decided advantage in the ruck contest in terms of experience and size. Cox and Charman are very different styles of ruckmen with Cox a more free running, linking player and Charman a real bash and barge, in and under style big man. Both can get forward and kick goals but I expect it is the work that they do in the midfield which will be pivotal. An in-form Charman adds a lot of presence to the contested situation for the Lions. Leuenberger as 2nd ruck is a potential weak point as it just beggars belief that a 19 year old, 200cm+ player could compete at the elite level. While there is a lot of excitement about his potential (which is almost limitless), he is still underweight and tactically naive and West Coast will almost certainly try to exploit him.
 
acuguy said:
Pobt you have sold me on the Mills to Hansen theory although Henderson could play forward and Mills could play back if both are selected, maybe Brett Jones will play on Bradshaw, this would be a massive win for us in theory.
Click to expand...

In my mind, we are deciding between including only 4 KPPs in our 22 (Brown, Bradshaw, Patfull and Merrett) or adding 1 more for security. I have no doubt that at least 5 will travel west but I'm just not sure if they'll include them all in the 22. If Roe were fit, I'd have no doubts that he'd be in the side.

Lynch Takes a Mark's assessment that WC will play Lynch, Hansen and Kennedy up forward is interesting although I guess that they've always had Staker as that 3rd tall forward in the past (I hear he has played back in pre-season?).

In the past, we have changed our structure to go west. We tend to look for more running players which obviously means that we lose height at either or both ends of the ground. This time, we can select 15 running players (22 minus 2 rucks and 5 KPPs) who have all had enough game time under their belts and are fresh from a week's bye. The other important aspect to note that we seemed to improved the depth of our midfield rotations with a number of flankers doing a Poss and looking for more time on ball - that also helps out the team's running capacity.

While West Coast are always fit, they don't have two supreme runners in Judd and Cousins while Kerr is going to be slightly underdone (although not necessarily less effective). Even with travel, I'd like to think that we have the engines to match West Coast without having to tinker with our structure to include more runners. All things considered, I'd like to see us use our preferred structure in round 1, regardless of the fact that we are playing at Subi. That then means playing Mills or Henderson to fill Roe's place.

As for playing both, it would be a very gutsy call!
 

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I'm taking some comfort in the fact that WC will have to employ a tactical change. When a team's under the pump it's good to be able to go back to what you know and do best. For the lions in 06 & 07 it was getting the ball into the forward 50 and not actually scoring, but manning up to a point where the opposition couldn't get the ball down field. This stopped the scoring and kept us in the game. I have no doubt that WC relied on the 'big names' in those tough periods of the game and it's at those times that we need to 'stick the boot in' this weekend!
 
OMG FOOTY YAY!!!

Besides the fact we did not go fantastic in the preseason that 1 win right at the end was what i expected to happen, we sailed though the preseason more worried about getting time into our players and reducing injuries then winning, but won the last game to get some momentum. This works for us in many ways, one being teams will not know how good we are, and will therefore (at first anyway), play accordingling thinking we are an easy team to beat. So this may get us a few victorys at the start of the season, the other advantage to us is obviously the fact that we almost have a full team to select from, which has been rare for us lately.

Anyway enough jibber jabber, Lions for the win by 20 points!!!

GO LIONS :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
 
It will be interesting to see WC's team this week. We know that Brisbane will try to exploit us with more smaller running type players, but will we try load our forward line with talls and expose the Brisbane defense yet potentially get hurt on the rebound like we did last year.
 
Just heard on ABC radio that Lachie Henderson has been named to play in defence. They didn't elaborate on the make-up of the rest of the team, just spoke to Lethal about how round one is probably the best time to make the West Coast trip.
 
Pedro the Lion said:
Just heard on ABC radio that Lachie Henderson has been named to play in defence. They didn't elaborate on the make-up of the rest of the team, just spoke to Lethal about how round one is probably the best time to make the West Coast trip.
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Strnage they'd be so settled on naming a first-year player five days out from the game.
 

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The Flying Belgian said:
Strnage they'd be so settled on naming a first-year player five days out from the game.
Click to expand...
I thought that. Perhaps they are trying to take the heat out of the news by announcing it early, getting all the press out of the road and then letting Hendo concentrate on the game for the rest of the week.

Good luck Hendo!
 
Personally, as a west coast supporter, i'm always nervous playing Brisbane- Youse seem to have a little more bite when you play us, had a real bad feeling we would get beaten last year at subi, and well you guys proved me right.

In terms of both teams this year, well they are practically even. Both are unknown quantities this year. Both are expected to do ok, Brisbane are expected by most to finish 5-10 this year, i think the eagles are about the same in the eyes of most 'experts'. (Note: I don't consider Caro an expert :p)
Round one though, you can never pick on pre-season form. Why? Because's it's the first taste of the real stuff of the year, it's rough it's tough, and all players go harder at the ball then they would a few rounds later. (After the niggling injuries start to occur).

Black & Brown and a few others from Brissy may have had a slower start to the pre-season than they mightve liked, but they'll be ready, because they are professional AFL players. Brown & Black even at 90% will still run out a game of footy at higher levels than most AFL players.

The real possible match up i am looking to see is a possible Staker v Brennan. Both are incredibly freaky, but lack consistency, but given a shot in the midfield might change things for both. Had a good look at staker over the preseason, and he looks in probably his best shape of his career, will be looking at his best injury free year. Stopping him both as a midfielder, and as a float down forward will be a large step in beating West Coast for you guys. Has a particular way of changing games at his best.

Whereas West Coast has lost their superstars in Judd & Cousins, don't be fooled into thinking that that Weakens West Coast terribly, although it does in the sense that you can never replace both of them, but the fact is that the eagles practically played the whole year without cousins, and half the year practically without judd -their midfield did hold up. They still have a good second tier players in Embley, Stenglein, Fletcher, Selwood, who should provide consistency.

IMo this will be a very even contest, however i will tip the eagles by 10 point only because it is at home, & because i think West Coast are very sick of hearing about how worse off they will be without Judd & Cousins.

BTW, sorry if this doesn't make any sense, I know it is a little jumbled..:cool:
 
hey there jesterwester thanks for this. Yeah I get nervous with you guys too, be it here at the Gabba or over there in Perth. You guys still have the wood on us in terms of win loss ratio but it is always one of those games where you just don't know. I'd never put my house on one of our games that's for sure!!
 
POBT said:
Lynch Takes a Mark's assessment that WC will play Lynch, Hansen and Kennedy up forward is interesting although I guess that they've always had Staker as that 3rd tall forward in the past (I hear he has played back in pre-season?).
Click to expand...

Staker has been trialled as a midfielder this pre-season, with mixed results. He has the attributes to play almost every position, but is not really suited to any. Personally, I think he should play as a tall running wingman (a la Embley), but we'll wait and see where the match committee choose to play him this weekend.

In terms of tall forwards, don't underestimate Mark Seaby. Was more of a liability than anything else in the forward line a few years ago, but has improved immensely, and is now one of the best pack marks in the AFL. Booted 20.5 in 2007 too. I wouldn't expect him to play more than half the game as a forward tops, but he is dangerous when he's down there.

I really have no idea what to expect from West Coast or Brisbane, but I can't wait for the game!
 

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